Kirkcaldy Weather

Temperature in Seoul plunges to -12.4°C as cold snap grips South Korea WWW.CHANNELNEWSASIA.COM The cold weather has affected about 100 flights - most of them to and from Jeju Island.

Temperature in Seoul plunges to -12.4°C as cold snap grips South Korea WWW.CHANNELNEWSASIA.COM The cold weather has affected about 100 flights - most of them to and from Jeju Island.

Jan week 1 is giving me big February 2021 deja vu, a pattern where small tweaks can bring big snowy surprises though I'm personally focusing from January week 2 with a bit of moving into a negative PNA at least for a time 12zs GEPS and GEM Ensemble follows on really neatly into my post from yesterday and my general idea into January week 2

Hope everyone had a brilliant Christmas Super excited with this update which ties to the above statement nicely

Mega excited to give this detailed update as it contains info on a project I've been working on over the past few months

SUPER Excited to bring this update for many many reasons 🌨🌨 I've been working on a project for a number of months, it's focusing on a precursor of stratospheric / sudden stratospheric warmings which comes from this paper Just a moment... RMETS.ONLINELIBRARY.WILEY.COM Sometimes the papers don't link correctly it's titled Some of My findings to this current timeframe might need to continue adding once all my bookmarks load. Those who regularly follow my posts will know I've shown for the past few months approx how the typical precursor setups which tend to lead into weakened vortex events and increased odds of stratospheric & sudden stratospheric warmings have been present. Why are we seeing a shift in the 500hpa setups progressing through January? I'll begin with the MJO which will be working into the feedbacks of phases 6 through 1 generally. With Ninò influence Phase 6 which is fitting with the pattern we've had during recent weeks Phase 7 which again fits with recent and ongoing scenario As phase 8 feedback starts this is when the pattern begins to adjust as the high from the Maritimes across Canada transitions to cyclonic developments Taking the general MJO setup this transition into cyclonic development towards the Maritimes and Canada is seen with phase 6 in December too Here is where the setup which becomes Note again our cyclonic developments from the Maritimes into Canada, troughing taking shape towards Scandinavia and the Baltics, increasing high pressure to the north of the UK. Increasing high pressure >> Blocking in Greenland This idea is also found overall in the JMA MJO plots again phases 6 through 8 One of the biggest contributing teleconnections feeding in is the PNA Pretty neat as this will feed onto a -NAO feedback which also connects great with the MJO discussion above Awesome evolution as the high which i covered in my previous update which is bringing above average scenarios into East Asia - Korea and Japan particularly this with time transitions into a new trough which is shown in the right column above And looking closer with the El Ninò and El Ninò w SSW both are akin and tie great with all the above teleconnections input Easterly QBO factors in again too Plus the associated patterns with -NAO & El Ninò + -NAO Current timing puts the MJO into the Maritimes [increased cyclonic developments noted in this post] as we get toward mid January ie latter Jan week 2

Pure stunning showcase of the +PNA setup

"As the phase 5 feedback comes through by Dec week 4 paired with the positive NAO and energies from the tropospheric vortex we'll need to be VERY mindful of storm developments / deep cyclones " 'Looks like a legit chance of a snow event particularly for the northern,northwestern and Northeastern sections of Scotland through Friday and Sat with precip forming along the frontal boundary between the cold and warm air" Pleasing seeing all the snow reports from our residential correspondence members in said areas @Scottish-Irish Skier I was like how's he posting snowy snaps having forgot you've snuck off into Aberdeenshire 'For Christmas itself current trends show a feature starting across Northern Scotland which moves south sometime on Christmas Day, this might bring an opportunity for a classic white Christmas dependant on 528 dam position and Dewpoints feeding into said feature." Main story into Christmas is all dependant on a development of a frontal wave, currently this looks like developments begin to our west by early Christmas morning as the big fella brings our As discussed above we still see the prominence of a section of the Jet across the UK which looks to position favourably as this frontal wave forms combining with another boundary setup which @Hawesy has described as was present with the Fri-Sat snow. Looks to see this wave developing increasing precipitation rates and with increasingly chillier 850s beginning to undercut, where the dewpoints start to become increasingly supportive this sees the change over into snow with current signs from Perth, maybe Cairngorm and over near Dundee possible extention outwith. I'll be mega surprised if we aren't sitting with at least yellow snow warning covering this waving activity. Once the pivot and movement further south southeastwards begins this coinciding as the -4/-5 850hpa really undercuts which really increases the opportunity for a quite significant snow event into parts of central Scotland and into Stirling, Fife and eventual progression towards Edinburgh etc etc Fronts WWW.AVIATIONWEATHER.WS Fronts - full text of the classic FAA guide 'If this tendency persists and the wave increases in size, a cyclonic (counterclockwise) circulation develops. One section of the front begins to move as a warm front, while the section next to it begins to move as a cold front (C). This deformation is a frontal wave. The pressure at the peak of the frontal wave falls, and a low-pressure center forms. The cyclonic circulation becomes stronger, and the surface winds are now strong enough to move the fronts; the cold front moves faster than the warm front (D). When the cold front catches up with the warm front, the two of them occlude (close together). The result is an occluded front or, for brevity, an occlusion (E). This is the time of maximum intensity for the wave cyclone. Note that the symbol depicting the occlusion is a combination of the symbols for the warm and cold fronts. As the occlusion continues to grow in length, the cyclonic circulation diminishes in intensity and the frontal movement slows down (F). Sometimes a new frontal wave begins to form on the long westward-trailing portion of the cold front (F,G), or a secondary low pressure system forms at the apex where the cold front and warm front come together to form the occlusion. In the final stage, the two fronts may have become a single stationary front again.' Well this is a brilliant example of the complexities involved with newest data suggesting the boundary remains North of the central zones with biggest impact over Cairngorms etc Quite incredible and shows that even within 24hr range these multi million pound / dollar supercomputers still struggle in setups such as these. 12z "Looking further into what's unfolding further afield, as the MJO is progressing through the Western Hemisphere and Africa I'd be expectant for some cyclonic developments within these regions and lo and behold we see a double rossby wave break over Africa with the 1st giving snowfall in Algeria and the 2nd bringing a persisting low over Morocco which might also see some snowfall there. This should help to develop further lows toward the UK in the run up to New Year' Yep, we've got an initial cyclone coming in by the 27th with a number of impactful conditions. High Ground Snowfall on the leading edge Jet increasing in strength Looks like we'll need to be very alert for impacts from Gales from a Southeast direction initially on the 27th Getting some Arwen esque vibes into the 28th once this cyclone transfers over into the North Sea, might be some impactful wraparound gales from similar directions as Arwen I think the meteorological agencies over in the Netherlands, North Germany,Poland and perhaps Denmark will be concerned with this system.

0.7C with 76.6MM please

Newest Update

Very detailed post incoming My thinking holds steady with the pattern evolutions over the Christmas and heading toward the New year period, the broadscale setup is that of a developing Scandinavian - Baltic trough, this setup was always probable into week 4 of December perfect timing with your post @Jo Farrow thanks Looking solely into the dynamical situations for Christmas itself as mentioned in my posts above / recently the highest probalistic outcomes of below average surface temps were always best for northern UK With a prominent section of the Jet crossing the UK its easy to understand the milder trends particularly on the southern flank Also easy seeing why the flow will change orientation from a Northwest flow to that of more Westerly influence which again you'd not typically connect with prolonged below avg weather. 850hpa anoms Surface temperatures anomalies Looks like a legit chance of a snow event particularly for the northern,northwestern and Northeastern sections of Scotland through Friday and Sat with precip forming along the frontal boundary between the cold and warm air For Christmas itself current trends show a feature starting across Northern Scotland which moves south sometime on Christmas Day, this might bring an opportunity for a classic white Christmas dependant on 528 dam position and Dewpoints feeding into said feature. Looking further into what's unfolding further afield, as the MJO is progressing through the Western Hemisphere and Africa I'd be expectant for some cyclonic developments within these regions and lo and behold we see a double rossby wave break over Africa with the 1st giving snowfall in Algeria and the 2nd bringing a persisting low over Morocco which might also see some snowfall there. This should help to develop further lows toward the UK in the run up to New Year In my post from 7th December I spoke of the re emerging trend of a classic El Ninò Style Jet, this paired with the PNA being positive .. more on that in a min. Has already given a record breaking storm on that route via the Gulf into the Northeast Looking back at what I discussed from December 5th Excellent representation with the ongoing and in parts record strength block particularly through the UK, North Atlantic and Maritimes--> Canada also we now have our cut off low development through California into Mexico The PNA has strengthed within the + phase and this brings a new storm threat in about a weeks time I'm expectant of a shift from the deep cold which has and is currently residing across Asia, East Asia particularly as high pressure moves across Korea and Japan through Christmas this switches towards above average temperature scenarios