Kirkcaldy Weather

"As the phase 5 feedback comes through by Dec week 4 paired with the positive NAO and energies from the tropospheric vortex we'll need to be VERY mindful of storm developments / deep cyclones " 'Looks like a legit chance of a snow event particularly for the northern,northwestern and Northeastern sections of Scotland through Friday and Sat with precip forming along the frontal boundary between the cold and warm air" Pleasing seeing all the snow reports from our residential correspondence members in said areas @Scottish-Irish Skier I was like how's he posting snowy snaps having forgot you've snuck off into Aberdeenshire 'For Christmas itself current trends show a feature starting across Northern Scotland which moves south sometime on Christmas Day, this might bring an opportunity for a classic white Christmas dependant on 528 dam position and Dewpoints feeding into said feature." Main story into Christmas is all dependant on a development of a frontal wave, currently this looks like developments begin to our west by early Christmas morning as the big fella brings our As discussed above we still see the prominence of a section of the Jet across the UK which looks to position favourably as this frontal wave forms combining with another boundary setup which @Hawesy has described as was present with the Fri-Sat snow. Looks to see this wave developing increasing precipitation rates and with increasingly chillier 850s beginning to undercut, where the dewpoints start to become increasingly supportive this sees the change over into snow with current signs from Perth, maybe Cairngorm and over near Dundee possible extention outwith. I'll be mega surprised if we aren't sitting with at least yellow snow warning covering this waving activity. Once the pivot and movement further south southeastwards begins this coinciding as the -4/-5 850hpa really undercuts which really increases the opportunity for a quite significant snow event into parts of central Scotland and into Stirling, Fife and eventual progression towards Edinburgh etc etc Fronts WWW.AVIATIONWEATHER.WS Fronts - full text of the classic FAA guide 'If this tendency persists and the wave increases in size, a cyclonic (counterclockwise) circulation develops. One section of the front begins to move as a warm front, while the section next to it begins to move as a cold front (C). This deformation is a frontal wave. The pressure at the peak of the frontal wave falls, and a low-pressure center forms. The cyclonic circulation becomes stronger, and the surface winds are now strong enough to move the fronts; the cold front moves faster than the warm front (D). When the cold front catches up with the warm front, the two of them occlude (close together). The result is an occluded front or, for brevity, an occlusion (E). This is the time of maximum intensity for the wave cyclone. Note that the symbol depicting the occlusion is a combination of the symbols for the warm and cold fronts. As the occlusion continues to grow in length, the cyclonic circulation diminishes in intensity and the frontal movement slows down (F). Sometimes a new frontal wave begins to form on the long westward-trailing portion of the cold front (F,G), or a secondary low pressure system forms at the apex where the cold front and warm front come together to form the occlusion. In the final stage, the two fronts may have become a single stationary front again.' Well this is a brilliant example of the complexities involved with newest data suggesting the boundary remains North of the central zones with biggest impact over Cairngorms etc Quite incredible and shows that even within 24hr range these multi million pound / dollar supercomputers still struggle in setups such as these. 12z "Looking further into what's unfolding further afield, as the MJO is progressing through the Western Hemisphere and Africa I'd be expectant for some cyclonic developments within these regions and lo and behold we see a double rossby wave break over Africa with the 1st giving snowfall in Algeria and the 2nd bringing a persisting low over Morocco which might also see some snowfall there. This should help to develop further lows toward the UK in the run up to New Year' Yep, we've got an initial cyclone coming in by the 27th with a number of impactful conditions. High Ground Snowfall on the leading edge Jet increasing in strength Looks like we'll need to be very alert for impacts from Gales from a Southeast direction initially on the 27th Getting some Arwen esque vibes into the 28th once this cyclone transfers over into the North Sea, might be some impactful wraparound gales from similar directions as Arwen I think the meteorological agencies over in the Netherlands, North Germany,Poland and perhaps Denmark will be concerned with this system.

0.7C with 76.6MM please

Newest Update

Very detailed post incoming My thinking holds steady with the pattern evolutions over the Christmas and heading toward the New year period, the broadscale setup is that of a developing Scandinavian - Baltic trough, this setup was always probable into week 4 of December perfect timing with your post @Jo Farrow thanks Looking solely into the dynamical situations for Christmas itself as mentioned in my posts above / recently the highest probalistic outcomes of below average surface temps were always best for northern UK With a prominent section of the Jet crossing the UK its easy to understand the milder trends particularly on the southern flank Also easy seeing why the flow will change orientation from a Northwest flow to that of more Westerly influence which again you'd not typically connect with prolonged below avg weather. 850hpa anoms Surface temperatures anomalies Looks like a legit chance of a snow event particularly for the northern,northwestern and Northeastern sections of Scotland through Friday and Sat with precip forming along the frontal boundary between the cold and warm air For Christmas itself current trends show a feature starting across Northern Scotland which moves south sometime on Christmas Day, this might bring an opportunity for a classic white Christmas dependant on 528 dam position and Dewpoints feeding into said feature. Looking further into what's unfolding further afield, as the MJO is progressing through the Western Hemisphere and Africa I'd be expectant for some cyclonic developments within these regions and lo and behold we see a double rossby wave break over Africa with the 1st giving snowfall in Algeria and the 2nd bringing a persisting low over Morocco which might also see some snowfall there. This should help to develop further lows toward the UK in the run up to New Year In my post from 7th December I spoke of the re emerging trend of a classic El Ninò Style Jet, this paired with the PNA being positive .. more on that in a min. Has already given a record breaking storm on that route via the Gulf into the Northeast Looking back at what I discussed from December 5th Excellent representation with the ongoing and in parts record strength block particularly through the UK, North Atlantic and Maritimes--> Canada also we now have our cut off low development through California into Mexico The PNA has strengthed within the + phase and this brings a new storm threat in about a weeks time I'm expectant of a shift from the deep cold which has and is currently residing across Asia, East Asia particularly as high pressure moves across Korea and Japan through Christmas this switches towards above average temperature scenarios

Quite the remarkable event

Ive posted in the global thread too but for those who don't check other threads but enjoy watching the dynamics unfolding.. Looking at the situation across Africa particularly Northwest North and Northeast regions, a low which began in SE England will transition into a cut off low via Rossby Wave Breaking and will drift Southwest into Africa. This is occuring via phase 3 feedbacks of the MJO which can give below average surface temps over this part of Africa which matches very good to these upcoming dynamics New trend coming into play on the models with scope of a second wave break from frontal energy coming from the Atlantic which extends Northeast through the UK with signs for a secondary cut off low development through Spain which also slides into these African regions Contradictory to the Christmas lyrics this will provide opportunity for some of the precip to be falling as snow in parts of Morocco, Northern Alergia and Tunisia this Christmas Could see some flooding rains occuring with the 1st wave break low particularly across Tunisia perhaps close to the coast of Libya

Looking at the situation across Africa particularly Northwest North and Northeast regions, a low which began in SE England will transition into a cut off low via Rossby Wave Breaking and will drift Southwest into Africa. This is occuring via feedbacks of phase 3 of the MJO which can give below average surface temps across these African regions which matches very good to these upcoming dynamics New trend coming into play on the models with scope of a second wave break from frontal energy coming from the Atlantic which extends Northeast through the UK with signs for a secondary cut off low development through Spain which also slides into these African regions Contradictory to the Christmas lyrics this will provide opportunity for some of the precip to be falling as snow in parts of Morocco, Northern Alergia and Tunisia this Christmas Could be some flooding rains with the first wave breaking low over Tunisia in particular which might extend toward the Libyan coastlines

Updates from me as we head through Christmas and the run up toward New Year

Extending from my latest update here With the continuation of positive NAO feedback paired to recent MJO phases favouring an above average temperature scenarios there won't be any significant long lasting below average temperatures however as phase 5 feeds into the positive NAO in around 6/7 days time this will bring the tropospheric vortex stretching from the Alaskan trough into the Standard below average heights from Greenland and into the phase 5 setup with this extending across to Scandinavia The biggest surface temperature anoms below average for the UK are most probable across northern Britain Below avg 850hpa temperatures will extend across a wide swathe of the UK and into Scandinavia This below average period will face a quick retraction once again as the trough becomes refocused further north northwest back toward Greenland as colder conditions once again becoming focused in Asia, California, Alaska, Greenland, potentially Florida plus Mexico Further synchronicity with 2012

Ottawa records longest consecutive snowfall on record OTTAWA.CTVNEWS.CA It hasn't stopped snowing in Ottawa for over two days, setting a new record