Kirkcaldy Weather

On the 2nd day of winter mother nature gave to me 20231202_071107.mp4 Scotland Snow Cup is off to a flyer as @Hawesy took a brief lead with a cover of graupel but KW responds with a curling effort into the left bottom corner , we need regional rivalries here got to put @Penicuikblizzard v @101_North for the Edinburgh regions

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Quite the sneaky sod this small low, looking at a bit of northwards momentum into the wee hours and a bit of push toward a central streamer of sorts giving scope for showers from the Clyde regions across into Fife Stirling Edinburgh etc

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Super watching as the feedback of progress from the cycle which has gave our pattern currently into the ongoing IO phases ie 2&3 with models starting to develop various tasty features GFS op has been on the setup which is suggesting a negative PNA this has tendencies to pump high height developments over Scandi That GEFS mean from 18z is prime feedback Quite a few interest areas to watch VERY closely. Energy of most intense high heights transfers from Greenland and Canada to the Northeast and Scandinavia which links to a strong Pacific ridge - block. Trough over the Atlantic gradually becomes focused toward Canada parts of Greenland with negative tilt tendencies. Fairly significant outputs liking a severe and significantly intensifying cold pool with similar alignment with Feb 2018, PNA tendencies more into negative Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4964339

Stunning

@Tom Quintavalle Facebook M.FACEBOOK.COM Facebook M.FACEBOOK.COM Facebook M.FACEBOOK.COM Interesting

Super watching as the feedback of progress from the cycle which has gave our pattern currently into the ongoing IO phases ie 2&3 with models starting to develop various tasty features GFS op has been on the setup which is suggesting a negative PNA this has tendencies to pump high height developments over Scandi That GEFS mean from 18z is prime feedback Quite a few interest areas to watch VERY closely. Energy of most intense high heights transfers from Greenland and Canada to the Northeast and Scandinavia which links to a strong Pacific ridge - block. Trough over the Atlantic gradually becomes focused toward Canada parts of Greenland with negative tilt tendencies. Fairly significant outputs liking a severe and significantly intensifying cold pool with similar alignment with Feb 2018, PNA tendencies more into negative

one of the streamers is aligned into Lanark /images/logo-subtitle.jpg Discover Lanark WWW.LANARK.CO.UK Explore our new website and discover all that Lanark, New Lanark and the Falls of Clyde have to offer for visitors and locals.

Looking like a decent job here might allow a little pat on the back for myself 'Fife especially Northeast --> Southeast, battle of me and @Hawesy Moray coast into Inverness and into the forth bringing the lothians and toward Edinburgh into the game' Ice days and below avg temps day & night become the story into this weekend could get a small system near to West Scotland though the modelling depicts this as rain and probably doesn't make inroads really Eyes switch towards around Dec 4th

Definitely interesting how the theme is now keeping an easterly feed A for an extension and B more favoured than the fast switch to a North northeasterly That's got extreme min temps written smack bang over it BTW Shouldn't be too surprising given the feed is delivering temperature reading in Scandinavia with cold records tumbling More shared weather to 2010 too

Always good fun these convective streamer flows eh I believe there will be snow laying even at sea levels looks like 2 pushes of heavier banding at play here.. As the initial cold pooling swings in with the 528 dam this probably connecting to a trough resulting in a band with heavier snowfall rates p hour moves southwest with streamer alignment Fife and potential even toward central parts Also another streamer as mentioned starts in the moray firth toward Inverness First band VERY eye catching setup as Thursday progresses When someone enquires about nigh on perfect alignment for north sea streamers

Another top quality post buddy As mentioned it's all down to the cyclogenisis with deeper we'd be having those blizzard scenarios but trends into this evening keep same path but at an increase at 500hpa Note the kink in the 1010 isobar which should be pretty close where the North sea convective bands develop, I expect Thursday is the main day however Icon starts this by Wednesday Now main influence and question is when this flow starts it's transition to north northeasterly I'm thinking the alignment of streamers present as this begins that's the areas thatl do best here and a nudge further into central parts still at play however I think Fife especially Northeast --> Southeast, battle of me and @Hawesy Moray coast into Inverness and into the forth bringing the lothians and toward Edinburgh into the game Regardless once this system moves away its ice day Category into the weekend

Starting with my post here 'Should see the shot of a snowstorm into the Northeast of America currently looks like 2 weeks from now as the +PNA really comes through' With this I provided in the above post So moving + 2 weeks here's how we look Super pleased how development has panned out with the parts I highlighted pretty much on point too Now taking this chart also in the above post 372hrs Syncing to where we go by Thursday ie 30th November Truly awesome and it highlights something I'd been looking to address for a long time, all too frequent we have opinions of charts equivalent in that time range being tarnished as 'fantasy island' which is unnecessary it just means seeking which 500hpa evolution fits most suitable given teleconnections feeding into said timeframe. Shifting back to my post on 7th November which contains these from the CFS which are between 600 and 700hrs timeframes Again link to the evolution we are witnessing Special and astonishing conditions present at both surface and UPPER atmospheric levels and yes i have noticed a negative mindset reference in the previous thread to using that terminology which is ludicrous. Once the cyclonic developments during Thursday Friday and part of Saturday transfers eastward we will have further developments taking a track quite similar which have possibility of further wintry conditions particularly for Northern parts of the UK which keep supportive upper level ingredients and can benefit from north sea convection given suitable orientation of these lows Into the late stages of Dec week one this transition will take us into a perfect representation of MJO phase 1 into December pairing into supportive teleconnections feeding into this timeframe which I have discussed prior in extensive detail Start of the trend to phase 2 evolution showing great too Given we still await the move to phase 3 probably within roughly 3-5 days I maintain my views here 'Given its just emerging there certainly isn't a rush for such evolutions but great the path being discovered already 🌨' Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4961049

Starting with my post here 'Should see the shot of a snowstorm into the Northeast of America currently looks like 2 weeks from now as the +PNA really comes through' With this I provided in the above post So moving + 2 weeks here's how we look Super pleased how development has panned out with the parts I highlighted pretty much on point too Now taking this chart also in the above post 372hrs Syncing to where we go by Thursday ie 30th November Truly awesome and it highlights something I'd been looking to address for a long time, all too frequent we have opinions of charts equivalent in that time range being tarnished as 'fantasy island' which is unnecessary it just means seeking which 500hpa evolution fits most suitable given teleconnections feeding into said timeframe. Shifting back to my post on 7th November which contains these from the CFS which are between 600 and 700hrs timeframes Again link to the evolution we are witnessing Special and astonishing conditions present at both surface and UPPER atmospheric levels and yes i have noticed a negative mindset reference in the previous thread to using that terminology which is ludicrous. Once the cyclonic developments during Thursday Friday and part of Saturday transfers eastward we will have further developments taking a track quite similar which have possibility of further wintry conditions particularly for Northern parts of the UK which keep supportive upper level ingredients and can benefit from north sea convection given suitable orientation of these lows Into the late stages of Dec week one this transition will take us into a perfect representation of MJO phase 1 into December pairing into supportive teleconnections feeding into this timeframe which I have discussed prior in extensive detail Start of the trend to phase 2 evolution showing great too Given we still await the move to phase 3 probably within roughly 3-5 days I maintain my views here 'Given its just emerging there certainly isn't a rush for such evolutions but great the path being discovered already 🌨'

These calibre of charts are worthy of a pop akin to Punk returning

Agree with this Ruzzi, I'd discussed the very first days into December being one to focus on A few scenarios at play for November 30th - December 1st just a question on how strong any cyclogenisis occurs, defo some possibility here for a blizzard setup with screaming Northeast flow This low will be drawing in upper cold pooling from Scandinavia which should act in helping lower the thickness levels, the centre is likely to be on the same latitude as the upstream cyclone which is bringing a huge blizzard through Ukraine and big sea effect snows into Turkey, Icon seems logical with 850s fluctuating from -6 average with -8s always near and maybe -10s coming across the north sea plus the 528 dam overhead Listening to Kenya Grace and the lyric "its like deja vu'

Hey @lorenzo the setup currently unfolding really stems back to the prior MJO cycle particularly from phase 6, I first noted the time period of november week 4 into december week 1 all the way back on 7th November Really its the main driver of the MJO in great companionship with Ninò Atmospheric state plus other teleconnections ie PNA which feeds onto the NAO AND AO. Textbook representation Fits really great as 2010 is one of the best analogues with my winter outlook particularly in December and I did note I was indeed expecting a shift into a pattern which shared similar 500hpa evolutions to that year. There are some differences on each model with regards if we keep the higher amplitude through phase 3 of the MJO or somewhat of a stall / decreasing amplitude similar to cycles before which is impact from the IOD event however there have been outputs keen on this being a maintained high amp cycle with CFS remaining steady There have been big impacts across India from this higher amplitude cycle with cyclone formation incoming too These really explain the way we've evolved to the patterns playing out now

@Midlands Ice Age @Aleman