Kirkcaldy Weather

Not a huge amount to add with the modelling doing a great job overall here and great evolution which is Textbook Ninò with Negative NAO and other teleconnections feeding in such as the phase 6 through 2 evolutions with the latter still being grasped in the exact amplitude by models though we know the trip to phase 2 has been high amplitude / impacting thus far with unseasonably high rain across parts of India plus good % for cyclone development in about 1 week in the Indian Ocean Some models are following similar to the cycle previously with a decrease of amplitude over the IO again though it is still a good deal higher than the previous cycle, the IOD factoring in will be causing this should the drop in amplitude occur. however the CFS still going all in and it certainly hasn't been alone in this higher strength cycle impressively strong -AO too GEPS can be one of the models that struggles with blocking strength plus retrogressive movement but that's a lovely trend Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99428-model-output-discussion-mid-autumn/?do=findComment&comment=4958099

Not a huge amount to add with the modelling doing a great job overall here and great evolution which is Textbook Ninò with Negative NAO and other teleconnections feeding in such as the phase 6 through 2 evolutions with the latter still being grasped in the exact amplitude by models though we know the trip to phase 2 has been high amplitude / impacting thus far with unseasonably high rain across parts of India plus good % for cyclone development in about 1 week in the Indian Ocean Some models are following similar to the cycle previously with a decrease of amplitude over the IO again though it is still a good deal higher than the previous cycle, the IOD factoring in will be causing this should the drop in amplitude occur. however the CFS still going all in and it certainly hasn't been alone in this higher strength cycle impressively strong -AO too GEPS can be one of the models that struggles with blocking strength plus retrogressive movement but that's a lovely trend

@Midlands Ice Age Snowfalls in Mexico courtesy of a cut off low plus significant amounts continue to come in at Northeast Spanish alpine areas 🌨🌨 Not sure if these are records and same with the low temps but wouldnt be surprised Tenerife too La nieve vuelve a las pistas de esquí aragonesas dos semanas antes de arrancar la temporada - Aragón Digital ARAGONDIGITAL.ES La nieve vuelve a las pistas de esquí aragonesas dos semanas antes de arrancar la temporada - Aragón Digital

GEM ENS Mean casually drops a Feb 2018 style orientation

So 16 days on and I'm MEGA happy how things have went, saving this for future refernce as this is the cold front which will bring in this setup Interesting this will now be back to back December's with a significant cold episode this is an excellent article which details many of the teleconnective aspects which led into Dec 2022 I always find it cool comparing prior significant events and shows that even in differing Atmospheric base states ie Ninà and Ninò both can very much result in patterns with similar weather December 2022 Synoptic Discussion | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) WWW.NCEI.NOAA.GOV A summary of synoptic activity in the U.S. During setups akin to this its an ever evolving situation as the models tend to struggle with the retrogressive state however my focal points remain the same with regard to the temperature aspect CONSISTENT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS FOR 2 WEEKS AT LEAST. INCREASED SHOT FOR ICE DAYS ESPECIALLY SCOTLAND AND INTO NORTHERN ENGLAND AT TIMES. Precip + Snowfall opportunities A couple of dates to watch I expect a shot for wintry north sea bands to start developing during the 27th and 28th with a gradual switch from easterly into northeasterly Closely looking into the very start of December with increasing troughing closer to the UK It's typical of what I'd expect once the block begins to retrogress and get central across Greenland and then towards Canada this has the potential to pull the trough through central Europe further north and northwest ie also retrogressing Excellent match with Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99428-model-output-discussion-mid-autumn/?do=findComment&comment=4957235

So 16 days on and I'm MEGA happy how things have went, saving this for future refernce as this is the cold front which will bring in this setup Interesting this will now be back to back December's with a significant cold episode this is an excellent article which details many of the teleconnective aspects which led into Dec 2022 I always find it cool comparing prior significant events and shows that even in differing Atmospheric base states ie Ninà and Ninò both can very much result in patterns with similar weather December 2022 Synoptic Discussion | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) WWW.NCEI.NOAA.GOV A summary of synoptic activity in the U.S. During setups akin to this its an ever evolving situation as the models tend to struggle with the retrogressive state however my focal points remain the same with regard to the temperature aspect CONSISTENT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS FOR 2 WEEKS AT LEAST. INCREASED SHOT FOR ICE DAYS ESPECIALLY SCOTLAND AND INTO NORTHERN ENGLAND AT TIMES. Precip + Snowfall opportunities A couple of dates to watch I expect a shot for wintry north sea bands to start developing during the 27th and 28th with a gradual switch from easterly into northeasterly Closely looking into the very start of December with increasing troughing closer to the UK It's typical of what I'd expect once the block begins to retrogress and get central across Greenland and then towards Canada this has the potential to pull the trough through central Europe further north and northwest ie also retrogressing Excellent match with

Everything aligning really really great, can't get a better representation of MJO phase 6 in November The curving of trough through central Europe and strong heights connecting across Greenland into a secondary block in Russia Good starter influence of the East QBO to boot I did mention on 7th November that given a little tweak this pattern has every shot to become very wintry definitely maintained as all that's required will be even slight pivoting when the trough merge attempts begin Heres when another exciting part arrives. As the MJO continues through phase 2 whilst maintaining nice increasing of amplitude fitting with the patterns i was discussing as we move further through Dec week 1. Again it's certainly not a boring scenario Another suggestion of renewed blocking across Russia and Siberia, further +PNA influence suggested but the real intriguing outcomes arise as Ninò filters into phase 2 First all amplitudes of phase 2 Ninò overall Higher amplitude Low pressures and cool -- cold air further ingredients within this wintry banquet. Trend for the block to get through West Greenland plus Canada Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99428-model-output-discussion-mid-autumn/?do=findComment&comment=4956417

Everything aligning really really great, can't get a better representation of MJO phase 6 in November The curving of trough through central Europe and strong heights connecting across Greenland into a secondary block in Russia Good starter influence of the East QBO to boot I did mention on 7th November that given a little tweak this pattern has every shot to become very wintry definitely maintained as all that's required will be even slight pivoting when the trough merge attempts begin Heres when another exciting part arrives. As the MJO continues through phase 2 whilst maintaining nice increasing of amplitude fitting with the patterns i was discussing as we move further through Dec week 1. Again it's certainly not a boring scenario Another suggestion of renewed blocking across Russia and Siberia, further +PNA influence suggested but the real intriguing outcomes arise as Ninò filters into phase 2 First all amplitudes of phase 2 Ninò overall Higher amplitude Low pressures and cool -- cold air further ingredients within this wintry banquet. Trend for the block to get through West Greenland plus Canada

Excellent I'm only addressing this briefly as I refuse to endorse any possible negative vibes however I've been here for 14+ years and this is my biggest passion, theres honestly not any sense of attempting big-headed energy within my posts and I do my utmost to explain as clearly as possible, certainly the teleconnective aspect can be difficult to learn for newer members i fully understand and I think i do a good job putting a big amount of explanation via text and image edits in my work and its always something that you learn new bits which tie into the teleconnective suite. I enjoy posting the charts and with scenarios a la current setup I feel the style I post in really helps to explain whether that is via a larger number of charts i really dont think its an issue Hopefully those who regularly follow and read my posts enjoy my style and its one of those things where not everyone can be pleased by certain posters but thats to be expected and life would be meh if everyone had shared interests etc though I've always approached this thread with nothing but full positive and upbeat energies plus I always live by the motto we should try learn from one another, @Catacol I honestly have always appreciated your input over many years and hopefully you can say the same for my posting, as far as me using bold font I enjoy as it looks really cool on night mode lol Cheers KW

The setups we are seeing are perfectly aligned with expectant outcome of the MJO and the modelling overall has performed at a good level considering how many scenarios are at play here. You get a great mix within many of the MJO phases however some have more variety than the rest and a few subtle changes on amplitude etc Little mention on the CMCC which was the only one to suggest THIS EXACT SETUP into December @Uncertainty @Mike Poole , DWD has been decent too which had Greenland heights As the end of December week 1 - Around the 6th currently seems a good guesstimate we watch as a perfectly normal transition will occur factoring in various contributing teleconnections Phase 5 With the move between phase 6 and 7 we get the northeast America snowstorm opportunity transition to a high with part retrogression of the Atlantic block Also linkage between Greenland into our troughing to the east and a strengthening Siberia High which comes to the fore via phase 8 This corresponding in line with 0-14 days following strong Stratospheric Vortex events You might not see a plausible path for a colder evolution from that but the phase 8 and 1 for December holds great value and indeed NAEFS trending into such setups This pattern being the main influence of this winter is the NAEFS slightly early perhaps however there is a genuine chance even at this stage

There can be multiple routes to cold and potential snowy setups in the UK and this is most akin to the methods which set out during late November 2010 At our current stage I can forsee at least a few weeks as discussed in the above with completely below average temps at both surface and upper levels. This being a distinct feature combining many teleconnections MJO PNA NAO AO EL NINÒ QBO Excited seeing an increasing amplitude through 8 + 1 Mix with highest impactful precursor patterns on weakening the Stratospheric Polar Vortex This cycle means business and I'm excited, eyes on a retrogressing high from Northeast into Greenland as December ticks on .. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99428-model-output-discussion-mid-autumn/?do=findComment&comment=4954769

There can be multiple routes to cold and potential snowy setups in the UK and this is most akin to the methods which set out during late November 2010 At our current stage I can forsee at least a few weeks as discussed in the above with completely below average temps at both surface and upper levels. This being a distinct feature combining many teleconnections MJO PNA NAO AO EL NINÒ QBO Excited seeing an increasing amplitude through 8 + 1 Mix with highest impactful precursor patterns on weakening the Stratospheric Polar Vortex This cycle means business and I'm excited, eyes on a retrogressing high from Northeast into Greenland as December ticks on ..

All coming into play really nice with really classical Ninò Atmospheric responses emerging working with favourable teleconnections ie MJO We are able to see a VERY good match particularly with NCEP, based on MJO 7 with East QBO @Uncertainty

No wonder seeing the Arctic Oscillation values absolute bottom out the Intensity and coverage of Greenland and Arctic heights on 0z was crazy, but fits really well with the teleconnections which have occurred thus leading onto the setup upcoming

Sublime that is all

Extremely happy how this is developing plus the signal into a bit of a higher amplified +PNA will boost wintry prospects Nice progression as conducive parameters for snow gradually arrive with a flow angled into the Northeast > East Should see the shot of a snowstorm into the Northeast of America currently looks like 2 weeks from now as the +PNA really comes through