Kirkcaldy Weather

Ottawa records longest consecutive snowfall on record OTTAWA.CTVNEWS.CA It hasn't stopped snowing in Ottawa for over two days, setting a new record

It's all connecting really neatly from my POV which aligns to the current MJO cycling particularly phases 3 through 5/6 I mentioned the phase 3 setup would come into reality from mid December This coinciding with feedback of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation which I mentioned here Into December week 4 it's clear to see the feedback of phases 3 and 4 which drive surface temperature patterns across most of the Northern Hemisphere into above average scenario though most significant will be where the main blocks reside particularly Canada and the Maritimes then adjacent with a secondary high toward Russia. The below average surface temperature areas will be California and Mexico, Greenland, parts of Asia and across Alaska, maybe Florida As the phase 5 feedback comes through by Dec week 4 paired with the positive NAO and energies from the tropospheric vortex we'll need to be VERY mindful of storm developments / deep cyclones Use these as a general idea Not surprising too watching as some strat warming is appearing also into Dec week 4 which was a timeframe ive had in my mind since Nov week 4

Literal perfect representation From my post on December 3rd 'phase 2 increasing the strengthening Russian & Siberian High"

Spot on

Great representation and correspondence of surface temps in association with the ongoing MJO cycle I have noted there have been cold temperatures at / near record levels in Brazil which can be noted on the above. Upcoming pattern with Above avg temps particularly with the Canadain -- Maritime blocking as I've covered of late and a split between central warmth and east cold west cold in Australia

Thought I'd do a bit of a different view and show the Great representation and correspondence of surface temps in association with the ongoing MJO cycle in various regions I have noted there have been cold temperatures at / near record levels in Brazil which can be noted on the above. Upcoming pattern with Above avg temps particularly with the Canadain -- Maritime blocking as I've covered of late and a split between central warmth and east cold west cold in Australia

Beginning to watch as phase 5 feedback enters the scene toward December week 4 ie near Christmas, we'll be watching for the retrogressive nature of our UK and Maritime high link, this then pushes energies from the lower pressure over Greenland into trough developments further east ie to our Northwest---North---Northeast, recent emerging signs this could coincide with a re emerging Ninò Style Jet setup giving potential exciting times further beyond this timeframe if that's true getting a feel for the C32 pattern being a distinct possibility

3 weeks on following the recent Late Nov Early Dec event these Swedish snow depths have continued to gain with absolute monstrous numbers. Yep thats a genuine 110cm recorded I believe the translations equate to 15 to 20C below average in various regions Right up there with coldest EVER recorded Dec temperatures and Record Nov temperatures

I've posted a detailed look at the incredible event of the previous 11 days 🌨🌨️️ Following onto the prior posts in this thread we continue to watch as classic feedback from phases 2 through 4 emerge Multiple patterns unfolding here. Elongation of high heights north of Hawaii, Extending trough from Alaska down the west coast which leads to development of cut off low(s) from California and especially Mexico, Strengthening Block in the far north of America and particularly East Canada into Maritmes with the curved extension to the UK and Scandinavia. As phase 4 feeds in this brings high pressure into the UK from the Southwest with a trough to the east Feedback of progress into a + NAO

Let's do an in depth dive into this extraordinary event of Late November 2023 into week 1 of December This is a superb match with the Negative North Atlantic Oscillation from NOAA in which the examples they provide are during multiple January -NAO setups. Switzerland This pattern has given temperatures which are on a par with February 2021 which is another famous cold episode. Germany Munich with one of the biggest snowfalls overall in the last 122 years and most of these occuring during the heart of winter which makes this even more impressive United Kingdom and Ireland Again this incredible event has given the coldest weather since the most top tier historic events such as Late November and December 2010, And Both recent Beast From The East Events of February- March 2018 and February 2021 Northeast America France Denmark Scandinavia and Baltics

2009 2012 1976 2010

It's all connected in one way or another there are 3 biggest contributing elements IMO and as ive given various posts on the abnormally high volumes of water vapour from Hunga Tonga are the key behind anomalous and thats even understating it as can be viewed within this thread the numbers of rainfall records has been astonishing. Next and I've been seeing this on numerous occasions this year when detailing monthly figures some months have had a close pair which has 2020,2021,2022 and this years data all reading either exact figures or in very close proximity with a fresh example August stats showed this connection. As discussed previously there's certainly bounceback effects at play likely in connection with the triple year Ninà event

Snow flurry this afternoon. Messy sums up this system with dewpoints increasing plus dam value = mix of sleet and even freezing rain. Low trying to come in on the 6th is a classic \ alignment of a front but as upper temps are at between -4 &-2 and again the 528 dam shifting further out the scene it screams predominantly highest level snowy conditions of which significant falls are plausible even into the pennine route, chance of it starting as a wintry mix at low levels on the leading edge but I expect the transition to rain will be pretty swift

So as we move into our second week of this well anticipated cold evolution I'll look at the setup thus far and travel through the next couple of weeks Linking the means from the 23rd into observed 500hpa for the previous 7 days Special accuracy I particularly like the extra strong Scandi baltic trough which the JMA depicts along with the blocking via phase 8 feeding into Dec I'm very happy with my overall roundup from the 23rd and observed conditions thus far 'focal points remain the same with regard to the temperature aspect CONSISTENT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS FOR 2 WEEKS AT LEAST. INCREASED SHOT FOR ICE DAYS ESPECIALLY SCOTLAND AND INTO NORTHERN ENGLAND AT TIMES. ' And the snowy conditions into UK at a timeframe I had generally expected for an opportunity of such weather "Closely looking into the very start of December with increasing troughing closer to the UK" We have the phase 1 and 2 setups beginning from this week Further scope for another snowy system into the Northeast of America Elongation of the Atlantic trough separates with one trough into the UK and the positive PNA style trough into the northeast of US, phase 2 increasing the strengthening Russian & Siberian High "Not a huge amount to add with the modelling doing a great job overall here and great evolution which is Textbook Ninò with Negative NAO and other teleconnections feeding in such as the phase 6 through 2 evolutions with the latter still being grasped in the exact amplitude by models though we know the trip to phase 2 has been high amplitude / impacting thus far with unseasonably high rain across parts of India plus good % for cyclone development in about 1 week in the Indian Ocean Some models are following similar to the cycle previously with a decrease of amplitude over the IO again though it is still a good deal higher than the previous cycle, the IOD factoring in will be causing this should the drop in amplitude occur. however the CFS still going all in and it certainly hasn't been alone in this higher strength cycle ' Hats off to the CFS as it held firm keeping increased amplitude as we are progressing toward the maritimes and the other models now following suit Towards mid December we begin to have the influencing phase 3 Phases 3 through 4 leads to patterns which drive above average temperature scenarios again Linking with the negative PNA Still acts as further impact on the strat vortex Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4969408

So as we move into our second week of this well anticipated cold evolution I'll look at the setup thus far and travel through the next couple of weeks Linking the means from the 23rd into observed 500hpa for the previous 7 days Special accuracy I particularly like the extra strong Scandi baltic trough which the JMA depicts along with the blocking via phase 8 feeding into Dec I'm very happy with my overall roundup from the 23rd and observed conditions thus far 'focal points remain the same with regard to the temperature aspect CONSISTENT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS FOR 2 WEEKS AT LEAST. INCREASED SHOT FOR ICE DAYS ESPECIALLY SCOTLAND AND INTO NORTHERN ENGLAND AT TIMES. ' And the snowy conditions into UK at a timeframe I had generally expected for an opportunity of such weather "Closely looking into the very start of December with increasing troughing closer to the UK" We have the phase 1 and 2 setups beginning from this week Further scope for another snowy system into the Northeast of America Elongation of the Atlantic trough separates with one trough into the UK and the positive PNA style trough into the northeast of US, phase 2 increasing the strengthening Russian & Siberian High "Not a huge amount to add with the modelling doing a great job overall here and great evolution which is Textbook Ninò with Negative NAO and other teleconnections feeding in such as the phase 6 through 2 evolutions with the latter still being grasped in the exact amplitude by models though we know the trip to phase 2 has been high amplitude / impacting thus far with unseasonably high rain across parts of India plus good % for cyclone development in about 1 week in the Indian Ocean Some models are following similar to the cycle previously with a decrease of amplitude over the IO again though it is still a good deal higher than the previous cycle, the IOD factoring in will be causing this should the drop in amplitude occur. however the CFS still going all in and it certainly hasn't been alone in this higher strength cycle ' Hats off to the CFS as it held firm keeping increased amplitude as we are progressing toward the maritimes and the other models now following suit Towards mid December we begin to have the influencing phase 3 Phases 3 through 4 leads to patterns which drive above average temperature scenarios again Linking with the negative PNA Still acts as further impact on the strat vortex

On the 2nd day of winter mother nature gave to me 20231202_071107.mp4 Scotland Snow Cup is off to a flyer as @Hawesy took a brief lead with a cover of graupel but KW responds with a curling effort into the left bottom corner , we need regional rivalries here got to put @Penicuikblizzard v @101_North for the Edinburgh regions

Any of our Glasgow members up? George Square Webcam WWW.GLASGOW.GOV.UK

Quite the sneaky sod this small low, looking at a bit of northwards momentum into the wee hours and a bit of push toward a central streamer of sorts giving scope for showers from the Clyde regions across into Fife Stirling Edinburgh etc