Ladyofthestorm
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Posts posted by Ladyofthestorm
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and it isnt forecast to stay lije that either after this weekend. A convienant temporary window, After Monday the jetstream is firmly back over the UK. and by next thursday T174, on the 18Z, we will all be moaning about the rain.
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The jet stream is upperair winds and the gulfstream is an oceanic current, the gulfstream may have gone south but the jetsream is still firmly over us.
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Hmm, I can't remember May
Pretty sure it was okay around my area though, but that's from a IMBY view, where my micro climate astounds me.
I can, as we had rain every day, and it made it a nightmare trying to get the crops out.
I bid you all a goodnite.. sweet dreams xxx
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Scotland had average rainfall in April....94%My link and May was a washout. (not sure where the May rainfall review is?)
Spring in Scotland was 122% of rainfall...My link
If I am correct Scotland has a sizable share of land mass in the UK.
Thank you John for the table, looks like the N of england suffered as well.
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CH the uk is a very diverse place, the SE suffered a dry spring, the rest of the UK didnt. I am a member of SACRA but I wont hype up something that is months off either.
Same game bobbydog... as Im sure you are aware the gulfstream and Jetstream are not the same thing. The gulfstream may have trundled south but the Jetstream is firmlt set over the UK and had been for months. Can I see a change? No.
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The jetstream isnt playing the same game unfortunately, this year the jetstream has been forimly over us, take it I know this one because it has rained most of the spring and summer with very windy conditions. The only time it has let up is when a ridge of high pressure has slipped up from the SW, before weakening and letting in the atlantic again.
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Just in case you think Im lying about exactly what I predicted last year, I quote what I said on Met Monkey in September last year.
A while back I said that I would wait to see what the hurricane season would bring to our shores. Right now we have two major tropical systems in the atlantic, and if the GFS is to believed none will make it over as extra tropical features. Instead they will slowly degrade while moving towards Greenland. We did see something like this earlier on this year, with weather systems in the atlantic almost being turned on there heals and going off in the opposite direction. This year it has started even earlier.
The NAO is also negative and continues to be stubbornly so.last year at this time it was positive and brought along with it a spell of wet and windy weather that broke my hubbys wind turbine.
Its been what I would call a benign summer and continues to be so as we move into autumn. I cant see no let up in the current situation. I think we could very well be in for a repeat of last winters slack, very cold airflow, but this time starting much earlier. We just need that air to cool over the continent and we will get what europe gets most years.
There has been another thread about the gulfstream, it hasn't switched off, but it hasnt got the power it should have at this time of the year either. If the southern ocsillation can swtich moods Im sure the gulfstream is more than capable of slowing down as well.
My link My user name is Snow-white
Maybe Im just not as bogged down in weather models as some peeps. The atlantic is about to wake up from its slumber, I am neither a snow ramper or a cold ramper, does it actually scare sp,e peeps to know that some people just know..... its called intution.
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I disagree about the jetstream wanting to stay south, any other year and I would agree, there are strong inidications that the atlantic has woken from its slumber and that the current meteorlogical conditions are supporting a strong jet directly over us here in the UK. We are witnessing blocking conditions in the atlantic, unfortunately its over the azores which isnt good news for cold lovers.
The ENSO graph is showing huge disparities in its runs and it is really difficult to rely on, what we do know is that it was very negative all last summer and into autumn and that will not be the casethis year unless something short of a weather miracle happens. The CFS doesnt have a great record at predicting longer range ENSO conditions, take last year when it said it would go strongly el nino and it didnt. Volcanic activity will only imapct for 1 yr to 18 months it is very short term, due to the atmospheric chemistry involved.
Solar activity is increasing, even given the lag time which was start of last winter, its effect on the atmosphere will now only encourage warmth.
Winter will be mild wet and very windy. Worst of the any snow will be for the north. I will be surprised to see a beast from the east.
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Lol I like your confidence, definitely worth a thumbs up!
lol thanks, I win either way... if Im wrong it snows, if its wet then I was right!
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Hi guys, I got that graph from the NOAA site...and no I dont just predict long range weather patterns based on sunspot activity. that would be madness. ENSO neutral will still bring us atlantic dominated weather. Id wait and see what the current hurricane season brings us.... an active season is indicative of a very mobile atlantic.
I was right the past two winters, I will be right again.
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and finally sunspot activity taken from space weather.
Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2011 total: 1 day (<1%) of those sunspot present they are pretty large ones.
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Since 2004: 820 days
Typical Solar Min: 486 days
Updated 19 Jul 2011
looks like a mild winter to me from beginning to end with out breaks of cold coming as brief interludes from the North as pressure builds over Greenland.
I thinks it more wind and rain we will have to worry about rather than snow. The good news is that the power companies will lose out...yay!
as for volcanoes... atmospheric dust was removed long ago so unlikely to have such a long term impact.
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here we go I found something that resembles what I was looking for, how many different graphs do they need! Warming of the Pacific suggesting el nino... I think!
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brightening up here at last, could be a nice week for western scotland coming up if the GFS and ECM are to be believed.
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Hi there,
am I not right in thinking that the la nina condisitions have now changed to an ever strengthening el Nino?
Solar activity is on the increase,
and SST's accross the atlantic have dramatically recovered this year?
Not to mention the atlantic has finally woke up from its slumber
Doesnt this suggest wet, windy and mild?
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Was dry this morning, now wet.
lol join the club
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15.7C for me
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all models points towards a rise in pressure and a decrease in unsettled weather from around 3rd of June onwards.... although about a week out, this suggests this could be a blocking feature for scotland....at last!
Finally the gulfstream has ran out of steam!
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hmmmm not so sure, I had a quick peek at the teleconnections, the NAO is thinking about going positive again....
The GFS ensembles are finalyy beginning to pick up an increase in pressure within a medium timeframe, rather than F1, and the ECM is picking this up now too...
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I saw a fresh dusting of snow yesterday morning...at altitude only.
I experienced sleet on the car window yesterday, my boss was driving and when we were between Ardlui and Crianlarich at about 10am yesterday morning the heavy rain shower we were driving through ended up as sleet. The temp dropped from 7C to 3.5C in a matter of a couple of minutes, once we were through the shower the high peaks to the the left (west) of the A82 had a thin dusting of fresh snow on top. Still a huge number of snow patches on the north/east faces of the higher hills, I'm not even sure that there are that many huge hills on the road to Oban? Firefly?!!
Hi catch my drift
there are some biggies in that area sepcially on the road to Dalmally.... There is Ben Lui at 3700ft, thats on the left hand side as you drive towards Oban, Onthe right there is Ben Cruchan a little further north, again its a monster at nearly matching hieghts. so all in all pretty high mountains
Ok, clutching at FI straws, but maybe, just maybe....
Ensembles are tending towards high pressure/more settled conditions.
http://www.netweathe...lMidlothian.png
Fingers crossed.
I was thinking this morning - if this is what summer is going to be like (snow on the hills etc), what will next winter be like
oh I do hope your right, May has been awful, the worst I can ever remember and certainly the worst since 1995 (that was before the summer that went on and on and on), am I grasping at straws?
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Dust on car yesterday.
I do hope this wet weather goes away soon Im getting sick of the garden being so waterlogged
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Looking at the charts, Europe still looks decidely chilly, I cant see any signs of Spring yet? Today woke up to yet more dusting of snow... had at least one episode of wintriness every week, and we live on the palm tree coast! lol
The ECM is picking up a slack NLy flow on the lastest run, it will be interesting to see what it brings in the next few days.
All in all a chilly end to feb, maybe not snow but decidely wintry.
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I remember doing an honours exam on something similar at uni many moons ago. I suppose it really depends on what you mean by damage.... loss or damge to property, humans, farmland or other resources.
One must take a look at some of the most devastating hurricanes and tornados both of the F4/F5 scale. Most devasting tornados happen in relatively unpopulated areas of the USA plains, while hurricanes can happen almost anywhere coastal within the tropis. With hurricanes, epespcially in areas that are low lying poor regions eg, Bangladesh when typhoon hits and its a bad un as in 1991 it can claim the lives of millions, the worst tornado will claim probably something in the region of 100 people.
Tornados, though intense, generally dont live very long and have a destruction path of perhaps a mile max in width, while a tropical cyclone can claim to cause damage over 100x that width.
With tropical cyclones we generally see them coming and can prepare.. at least that saves lives... but very rarely saves property. With a tornado there is very little warning and its this that causes the deaths. TS in developed countries can cause 100's of billions of dollars of damage, as with the Hurricane Katrina and unfortunately we will see the same with this beauty over queensland. Tornados although they cause utter destruction in one area, it is usually a very small stretch.
The cost isnt also to humans, massive stretches of farmland can also be destroyed, by the tidal surge. Salt water isnt good for any kind of crop, unless its sea weed.
So Id go for a hurricane.... why because it causes greater loss of life over a wider area for a longer period of time.
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Hi guys Ive been watching this baby for about 6 days now, and its been up and down as far as the models are concerned. I think alot of uncertainty exsists as to how deep it wil go. I have noticed all day long that METO havent given a pressure chart for thursday, which make me suspect that they are thing bomb cyclonegenesis.
It certainly looks like conditions are right for such an event.
Batten down the hatches guys on the western isles... looks like you could be in for a right good blow... Id say the best blow of the winter.
We have thunder and lightening right now seen 12 big flashes and one directly overhead.
My lucky day!
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Trivial facts time
As mentioned before it was the coldest November-December period since 1878 and 4th coldest.
It was the coldest October-December period since 1890, ie the coldest last quarter for a year over a century.
It was the coldest September-December period since 1952 with only 1925 and 1952 being colder in the 20th century than the 2010 period.
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Both January and December having a CET of less than 1.5 in the same year?
Only the 4th occasion that has happened: 1784, 1829, 1879 and 2010
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All 3 winter months in the same year having a CET of less than 3.0C?
Last occasion was 1963 and 1917 was the only other occasion in the 20th century
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If you combine the CET fo all 3 winter months in 2010, the average for Jan, Feb and Dec 2010 would be 1.2C
The years which had a colder value than this and some famous years here
1684, 1695, 1740, 1784, 1814, 1838, 1855, 1879, 1895, 1963
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The last occasion a year with an annual CET of less than 9.0C and a month recording a CET of greater than 17.0C?
1887
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The last occasion a year with an annual CET of less than 9.0C and the summer having a CET greater than 15.0C?
1917
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All this in a year when the global climate is said to be the warmest on record.... if only that heat was distributed evenly over the UK! A little ironic if I might add. Something is wrong with the understanding somewhere along the line.
What do these CET stats tell you?
Significantly that this may herald the incoming of a more continentally influenced climate, warm dry summers cold dry(ish winters) and deluges of convectional rain inbetween.
Say goodbye to the atlantic welcome continental influences.
Autumn 2011
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Ladyofthestorm
Grrrrr it wasnt me that started the here and now on positions of jetstreams and gulfstreams....what I am trying to say is the pressure patterns are different to last summer, if my mind serves me correct last summer we had a blocking high pressure right in the middle of the north atlantic and it sent the pressure systems into Greenland. This summer is different, we do have areas of low pressure slamming into us, because that area of blocking high pressure is right where it should be, over the azores.
At this point in time you are looking for general trends and Im giving them. I just do not think the conditions are right for a repeat performance of either 2009 or 2010 winters and I think snow lovers including myself are going to be disappointed. For me there isnt enough similarities in meteorlogical, atmospheric and solar set ups to warrant another cold winter. We will still have snow, but it will be coming from the N and not the east, and certainly not the continent.
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1. The La Nina conditions have weakened, and I suspect ENSO will stay neutral for the first part of winter then turn positive later part... reasoning and evidence: The ENSO CFS model cant make up its mind.
2. The Blocking area of high pressure which has brought our rubbish summer which so many of us have moaned about looks set to stay stubbornly over the azores allowing the atlantic to rattle in..... hence we get storms. Last summer and Autumn that area of high pressure was much further north.
3. SST's have made a recovery from last winter: Evdience... for the first time in 30 years I was able to swim in the sea! Last year the sea was very very cold all summer.
4.The solar minimum has passed, sunspot activity has increased and will continue to increase.
5. Unless the volcano in Iceland erupts big style in the next few weeks/ months I cant imagine global dimming to be an issue this winter in the Northern Hemisphere.
I have never been one for all this long winded, overtechnical speel, that few can understand and for myself have little time to write about. Up here in the North we are probably a little bit more intutitive with the weather, we have to be as it can have a massive impact on us. And I keep telling you it isnt the cold we should be talking about, its the potential for quite severe windstorms, last autumns were babies compared to the monsters thatmay reach our shores this autumn and winter.