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Ladyofthestorm

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Posts posted by Ladyofthestorm

    Disaster

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    Hi Pete,

    You misunderstand the point I was trying to make.

    I know that Co2 is a greenhouse gas ...... its just a very weak one ...... water vapour is the key. The IPCC rely on this feedback and assume its all positive to calculate and get their models to show the impacts of ..... greenhouse gas emissions.

    Folks often go on about Northern hemisphere extremes and I agree that we are a warmer world than 20-30 years ago ... thats a given. Its just that there are too many people (and the usual suspects) who will jump on any given event and cry AGW.

    There is big heat in Eastern Europe, there is big cold in the Antarctic and Southern Hemisphere ... there's even been one of the coldest summers in the Arctic since the 1950's ........... but no .... we concentrate on the big heat and folks shout ..... see .... more proof of the effects of greenhouse gases.

    That's all.

    Y.S

    Dev Im still working my way through this apparent mound of evdience about global warming. The bit I cant get is how come the IPCC can seperate the human from natural so easily.... or do they? Did anyone find that 2009 BBQ summer yet?

    YS I totally agree.... the IPCC models just arent clever enough to take into account subtle but very important feedback processes, and that isnt surprising because there were 52 sciientists and 17 diplomats..... can I continue slating IPCC, they made several claims of potential impact based on unpublished papers.. al retrated..... you can tell these guys dont get my vote of confidence cant you:diablo: grrrrrrrr.

    Further more havent 2008 and 2009 been our coolest years for a while....what will the say when 2010 follows suit?Has someone told the polar bears yet that they dont need to get on there swimming gear.

    Carbon dioxide only contributes to around 10% of greenhouse gases, about 5% of that is from human activity.... Water vapour is by far the biggest greenhouse gas. Nearly all this water is natural Carbon dioxide increases come before increases in temp. It isnt CO2 levels that impact on climate change, but the effect of the solar cycles.... now this is where strong correlations exsist.... makes sence doesnt it?

    The earlier parts of the holocene have in fact been warmer than today....

    A Greener Future

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    :rolleyes:Can I tell you a little bit about our house.

    Its a new build, we just finsihed it a few days ago.... lots of hardwork, money blood tears and sweat went into it, and Im now an expert in the art of taping filling and woodwork!

    Our house isnt a normal house, it isnt made of blockwork and timber, like traditional kit built houses. It is made of something called beco. Its ploystyrene blocks that are built up like lego and then you fill it with concrete our home will outlive some castles.. Not only is it strong, and robust, it is also warm so very very warm. The stats from last winter. We are all electric, we do have a wood burning stive in now but we didnt have last winter, we have underfloor heating, a huge water tank to heat and all electric cooking. Our electricity bill for december January and Feb was £210..... thats it... we have economy ten tarriff and we use it as much as we can. Our house is so well insulated it most passively heats. Our designer had thought about every cold bridge in every corner. Throughout the house is low energy lightbulbs, we even have a small wind turbine whirling away in the background. Now we have a wood burning stove in place and that alones heats up the house till its toasty.. usually in about 20mins! The fu pipe is set against a concrete wall which acts as a huge storage radiator, so it gives off heat long after the fore is out. Underneath the floor is more kingsspan so the heat from the heating cannot escape any other way. The house is so well insulated that tween the two levels there is no noise either.. and we live in a very exposed, windswept part of the country...

    Disaster

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    Nicely balanced peeps on this forum!:drinks:

    There are greater disasters out there that the news hasnt picked up on, that our governement has cast aside and that we as high energy, high demand consumers prefer to bury our heads in the sand and pretend it doesnt exsist. I will come back to that.

    Whilst there will always be an enhanced greenhouse effect , it will never be as much as what the media or our people in power will have us believe or indeed brainwash our children with at school. Im a sceptic of this whole climate change by humans lark.... there are other factors such the positioning of the earth in relation to the sun (the Milankovic theory), volcanic activity, solar activity, the complex relationship between the melting of icecaps, salinity of salt water, and the impacts this has on the oceanic ciculation. Its barely understood. I havent even touched on the biological aspect of global warming, like photosynthetic bacteria etc.

    There is not a scientist on this planet who could possibly pinpoint global warming to human causes and they have known this for 20 years and more.

    BUT there is one thing that concerns me, it isnt the climate change debate, there is a much bigger natural disaster out there, its now happening as swiftly as any flood or any wildfire, it will creep up on us and then it will be there.....

    Waste and our glut need for everything. Its poisoning our water, soils and land, its turning fertile soil into dust. Its devasting our biodiversity (the next cure for cancer), and while we attack the environment in such a way, it cannot defend itself against mother natures often unpredictable fury. Take the pakistan floods, the reasons while the water is going over the land instead of into the soil is becuase of the amount of deforestation taken place. Once where there were woods and fields now there are roads and houses, once these valleys flooded quite naturally now the water has nowhere to go but over the tops of humans. Then there is the toxic aspect, how many of you have bought a new computer before the other one broke? Bought a new fridge freezer, Plasma TV, new games console... what did you do with the old ones? Africa is being slowly poisoned by our high consumer demans, that need for everything. What does the government do to stop that? Nothing... too many taxes to be collected from it. In the case of the Russia wildfires.... dare I say it, the introduction of drought resistant crops, such as genetically engineered, selectively bred varieties of corn. Now this is great in a society where we throw away bread every day, but look at that impact it has.... now soil is being cultivated when it never used to be, this crop is able to withstand tinder box conditions where as in the past it would have wilted long long ago and nowits the perfect fuel for the wildfire. One lightening strke and the wholelot goes up.

    We impact on the environment but not in the way the so called experts would have many of us believing. In fact they are taking us away from the real issues and problems of waste and the need for sustainable living by talking about global warming.

    Id like to see a real effort being made, by getting companies that make white goods, to make them last for 20 years and not the 3 or 4 if you are lucky. Companies punsihed over over packaging.... my bug bear... Im at the stage where having bought my packets of cereal I will leave the cardboard box in the store.... Indiviual people and communities becoming more sustainable. Solar panels a whole lot cheaper than what they are, and people encouraged to erect wind turbines and make there homes energy effcient as possible. I want to see footpaths built and VAT taken off of bicycles..... I want the end of BOGOF on non essential items. I now buy all of my childrens clothes off of ebay, they will be looked after and then put back onto ebay for reselling. I want to see the end of building houses on floodplains, the red tape associated with building on land that is perfectly positioned except for the moans, motives and whims of planners and those sitting in quangos.

    Then the media and those in power can come back and discuss global warming with me.

    Winter 2010/11

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    You have often said yourself predicting with accuracy 2/3 weeks ahead is full of pit falls.

    I am not aware of anything on the planet that can predict with any accuracy 4/5 months ahead?.

    Surely at present people can only ‘wish for’ certain type of scenarios although the posting of fluffy monsters maybe a bit OTT.

    Ps I ‘predict’ Jan 2011 will be the same as Jan 1979 but without my red track suit.

    Hi there, your are quite right forecasting 2-3 weeks ahead is full of pitfalls, but sometimes its much easier to forecast the seasonal becuase it relies on less variables... in this case oceanic currents, location oif high pressure, sea surface temperatures and so forth.... with the shorter term forecasts, its the timing of the systems that gets out of sync. I rmrmber last year reading the legendary LRF for winter.. back to the 1970's it was dead on the money.... never seen such a LRF.. perhaps we shpuld be asking the experts on net weather what do they use to make these LRF and then take a leaf out there own book.

    BTW I said on another forum winter 2009/10 would be very cold and snowy as I was expecting twins..... and its always snowy when Im pregnant..... well its a good a reason as any! lol

    Disaster

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    Im going to come back to this thread, looks interesting!

    I did environmental science as my degree at Stirling Uni, and with that II studied environmental hazardsquaternary environmental change and land degradation at Hons Uni level.....so I do have some threads of my own thoughts on this and one thing I will say its not global warming we should all be whispering about, its the affect of toxic waste and poor/ slipshod environmental management practices that will be the end of us. Whilst the floods and wildfires in continental Asia are devasting, they are perfectly natural... what do you think shaped the valleys in Paskistan in the first place? Wildfores are part of the ecosystem on Steppes, its actually needed so that it can release nutrients back into the ground....its a problem because it affects humans.

    But I wont go into the limitations of global climate prediction models.. it will send you all to sleep. :wallbash:

    But right now I have the clan to feed!

    Winter 2010/11

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    :wallbash: makes a changeits normally me that manages to go off topic!

    I saw something in the 0Z runs today that was a little interesting..... looks like the atlantic is finally waking up. Although its in F1, I had a peak at the previous run and there actually appears to be some concensus in the runs...

    Imagine this one in winter...ok its tropical maritime in origin, but, look how it coils and deepens dragging in the continental mass air... that air in will will be cold.

    ok so whats this got to do with Winter!

    Looking at last years data and using my memory! We had a very unsettled spell in September as the NAO went positive, we lost our wind turbine it was that windy and it looks like history is going to repeat itself. Someone mentioned a northerly on the short range forecast, well its there... and quite a cracker too.. just in time for me going camping.... its the kind of synoptics I could easily envisage throughout the winter, with a slightly more lively atlantic bringing in cold northerlies... these are preffered for me because we actually get some snow as well as cold.

    So in a nutshell, cold and lively but not as cold aslast years! I still think the lag time on the solar minimum, will impact on our weather.

    I forgot to say none of my posts have any sort of logical order to them, Im female and proud of it!

    <_<

    Winter 2010/11

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Will the wakening up of the sun have an effect on the position of the gulf stream this winter do you think? I hope it stays similar to that of last year.

    In my humble opionion, the suns awakening wont take affect this year, and from the way the atlantic is working.. its like being in the doldrums here!.... it will sleep for another winter. However Im waiting on the hurricane season and the ex hurricanes that are thrown this way before I make any sort of judgement.

    Winter 2010/11

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Hi there, Im still trying to come to some sort of conclusion about this winter. I think it depends alot on how active the hurricane season is (how active the atlantic is). I think Ive heard whispers of a potentially large La Nina event in the pacific and that always upsets the applecart. Im quite interested on the impact of solar activity on climate, so I suspect that even given the the suns rather spectacular awakening this year, there is a lag time on its effect, eg we could still be heading for yet another cold winter..... last year was cold, calm and relatively dry (Im not counting Nov as that is autumn). This winter could still be cold... it hasnt really warmed up at all here and the sea surface temps are about 1C below what they should be at this time of the year..... and if the hurricane season kicks off like its predicted to do we could see some fireworks as the atlantic air meets the colder continental air.

    Wasnt it last year that Polant suffered early season blizzards? Something to watch out for.

    I do know this much, it aint going to be boring!

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