knocker
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Posts posted by knocker
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That's long trip. I see they are not due back until spring 2015.
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Worst ice storm in years coats southern Ontario, cuts power to thousands
About 350,000 customers across southern Ontario were without electricity after a massive weather system coated the landscape in ice, including about 250,000 in the Greater Toronto Area, where it could take up to three days to get everyone reconnected.
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The paper.
Extensive liquid meltwater storage in firn within the Greenland ice sheetMass loss from the Greenland ice sheet contributes significantly to present sea level rise1. High meltwater runoff is responsible for half of Greenland’s mass loss2. Surface melt has been spreading and intensifying in Greenland, with the highest ever surface area melt and runoff recorded in 20123. However, how surface melt water reaches the ocean, and how fast it does so, is poorly understood. Firn—partially compacted snow from previous years—potentially has the capacity to store significant amounts of melt water in liquid or frozen form4, and thus delay its contribution to sea level. Here we present direct observations from ground and airborne radar, as well as ice cores, of liquid water within firn in the southern Greenland ice sheet. We find a substantial amount of water in this firn aquifer that persists throughout the winter, when snow accumulation and melt rates are high. This represents a previously unknown storage mode for water within the ice sheet. We estimate, using a regional climate model, aquifer area at about 70,000 km2 and the depth to the top of the water table as 5–50 m. The perennial firn aquifer could be important for estimates of ice sheet mass and energy budget.
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2043.html
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Well not having read the complete study, nor all of the previous studies, I'm not really in a position to itemize any areas that diverge or are similar. I would have thought research can be undertaken from different perspectives and if the conclusions are similar this would add confidence to the said conclusion. And I do know that many still maintain solar is the main driver of climate change and not CO2 so perhaps new studies are not a complete waste of time. 'Alarmingly new' is maybe over egging it a trifle although it may be to the 'it's all down to the sun' brigade.
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Solar activity not a key cause of climate change, study shows
Climate change has not been strongly influenced by variations in heat from the sun, a new scientific study shows.http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2040.htmlThe findings overturn a widely held scientific view that lengthy periods of warm and cold weather in the past might have been caused by periodic fluctuations in solar activity.
Research examining the causes of climate change in the northern hemisphere over the past 1000 years has shown that until the year 1800, the key driver of periodic changes in climate was volcanic eruptions. These tend to prevent sunlight reaching the Earth, causing cool, drier weather. Since 1900, greenhouse gases have been the primary cause of climate change.
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-12-solar-key-climate.html#jCp
Small influence of solar variability on climate over the past millenniumThe climate of the past millennium was marked by substantial decadal and centennial scale variability in the Northern Hemisphere1. Low solar activity has been linked to cooling during the Little Ice Age (AD 1450–1850; ref. 1) and there may have been solar forcing of regional warmth during the Medieval Climate Anomaly2, 3, 4, 5 (AD 950–1250; ref. 1). The amplitude of the associated changes is, however, poorly constrained5, 6, with estimates of solar forcing spanning almost an order of magnitude7, 8, 9. Numerical simulations tentatively indicate that a small amplitude best agrees with available temperature reconstructions10, 11, 12, 13. Here we compare the climatic fingerprints of high and low solar forcing derived from model simulations with an ensemble of surface air temperature reconstructions14 for the past millennium. Our methodology15 also accounts for internal climate variability and other external drivers such as volcanic eruptions, as well as uncertainties in the proxy reconstructions and model output. We find that neither a high magnitude of solar forcing nor a strong climate effect of that forcing agree with the temperature reconstructions. We instead conclude that solar forcing probably had a minor effect on Northern Hemisphere climate over the past 1,000 years, while, volcanic eruptions and changes in greenhouse gas concentrations seem to be the most important influence over this period.
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Is it optional on here whether to reference the source when posting a photo that is not your own in the gallery?
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Newsflash: They have let Gosselin out again.
Shattered Consensus! Survey Of Climate Science Blogs Shows 65% Think Science Is NOT SETTLED!Scottish Skeptic here has tabulated a ranking of climate science blog sites. To no one’s surprise Anthony Watts’s Watts Up With That? took the no. 1 spot, followed by Marc Morano’s Climate Depot. The ranking was done using internet site rating service Alexa.First I’m really thrilled to see that NoTricksZone made it all the way to the number1314 spot, even bumping out RealClimate. I’m really surprised by this result. Not bad for something I’m doing on the side with the help of reader contributions such as those from Ed Caryl. Thanks to both loyal and occasional readers!65% are skeptic or luke-warmerHaving done a quick count of the warmist sites, I came up with 48 from a total of 137. That’s crunches to be only 35%. That’s a far cry from the 97% the warmists like to try to have the rest of the world believe.That means that almost two thirds of all climate science blogs are very skeptical or somewhat skeptical of the IPCC science (skeptic or luke-warmer). That’s hardly a consensus! Many of the skeptic sites are run by scientists and meteorologists…also showing that that “consensus among experts†is a complete myth.Moreover, the top 20 sites are clearly dominated by skeptics.HotWhoppers take on this nonsense. I love the graph.
Denier weirdness: The crank blog popularity contest
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Haiyan's Storm Surge: A Detailed Look
The Philippines is a nation used to seeing devastating typhoons. Between 1984 and 2012, the Philippines saw seven tropical cyclones that killed at least 1,000 people. In all of these storms, it was destructive flooding due to heavy inland rains that was the main killer. This is in contrast to the Atlantic basin, where storm surge from the ocean has historically been the main killer. That's due, in part, to the fact that the Philippines gets hit more often by intense tropical cyclones than any place in the world, and this has influenced settlement patterns. The portion of the coast most prone to typhoon strikes--the east coast of Luzon Island--is not heavily populated, and does not have any major cities at low elevation that are prone to large storm surges. The islands of the Philippines farther to the south, like Leyte, Samar, and Mindanao, are hit far less often, since they are closer to the Equator, where typhoons have a tougher time getting spinning due to the lack of an extra boost from Earth's rotation. This relative lack of typhoon strikes has allowed more settlement on the east coast, and Tacloban (population 221,000) is the largest city on the Philippines' east coast. Tacloban also happens to be low-lying, with much of the city at less than ten feet elevation. It's position at the pointy end of a funnel-shaped bay makes its location particularly vulnerable to storm surge, since the topography acts to concentrate water at the apex of the funnel. The occurrence of a massive storm surge disaster in Tacloban was only a matter of time, and that time happened to be November 8, 2013, during Super Typhoon Haiyan.
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Arctic Report Card: Update for 2013 - Tracking recent environmental changes, with 18 essays on different aspects of the environment, by a international team of 147 scientists from 14 different countries, with an independent peer-review organized by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme of the Arctic Council. More information and PDF of entire report at http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fPAc5D3Tow0#t=179
Satellites above the Earth are documenting a striking change in the Arctic. Not only is open water area increasing in the region, but adjacent land areas are growing “greener.†Since observations began in 1982, Arctic-wide tundra vegetation productivity has increased. In North America, the rate of greening has accelerated since 2005.
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Beautiful, creative clarity: Entire IPCC Report in 19 Illustrated Haiku
http://daily.sightline.org/2013/12/16/the-entire-ipcc-report-in-19-illustrated-haiku/
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When it doesn't show signs of stopping, most of us just mumble a few choice words and get out the snow shovel. Scientists, however, wonder where all that snow is coming from, particularly in pristine places like the Arctic. Raymond Shaw and his colleagues may have found an answer.
The video tracks formation of snowflakes from their origins in bits of dust in clouds that become droplets of water falling to Earth. When the droplets cool, six crystal faces form because water molecules bond in hexagonal networks when they freeze. It explains that ice crystals grow fastest at the corners between the faces, fostering development of the six branches that exist in most snowflakes. As snowflakes continue to develop, the branches can spread, grow long and pointy, or branch off into new arms. As each snowflake rises and falls through warmer and cooler air, it thus develops its own distinctive shape.
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Not Just the Koch Brothers: New Drexel Study Reveals Funders Behind the Climate Change Denial Effort -A new study conducted by Drexel University environmental sociologist Robert J. Brulle, PhD, exposes the organizational underpinnings and funding behind the powerful climate change countermovement. This study marks the first peer-reviewed, comprehensive analysis ever conducted of the sources of funding that maintain the denial effort. -
http://www.drexel.edu/now/news-media/releases/archive/2013/December/Climate-Change/
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Clouds blown by the solar wind
In this letter we investigate possible relationships between the cloud cover (CC) and the interplanetary electric field (IEF), which is modulated by the solar wind speed and the interplanetary magnetic field. We show that CC at mid–high latitudes systematically correlates with positive IEF, which has a clear energetic input into the atmosphere, but not with negative IEF, in general agreement with predictions of the global electric circuit (GEC)-related mechanism. Thus, our results suggest that mid–high latitude clouds might be affected by the solar wind via the GEC. Since IEF responds differently to solar activity than, for instance, cosmic ray flux or solar irradiance, we also show that such a study allows distinguishing one solar-driven mechanism of cloud evolution, via the GEC, from others.
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/4/045032/pdf/1748-9326_8_4_045032.pdf
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COLLEGE PARK, Md. - A University of Maryland-led, multi-organizational team has created the first high-resolution global map of forest extent, loss and gain. This free resource greatly improves the ability to understand human and naturally-induced forest changes and the local to global implications of these changes on environmental, economic and other natural and societal systems, members of the team say.
In a new study, the team of 15 university, Google and government researchers reports a global loss of 2.3 million square kilometers (888,000 square miles) of forest between 2000 and 2012 and a gain of 800,000 square kilometers (309,000 square miles) of new forest.
http://www.umdrightnow.umd.edu/news/umd-leads-1st-local-global-mapping-forest
Meanwhile down in Brazil.
Deforestation in Brazil up 28 Percent on the YearNew data indicate that the deforestation rate in Brazil has risen by 28 percent this year, marking an about-face after four consecutive years of declining deforestation, the Brazilian government announced Thursday.
http://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/4942/20131116/deforestation-brazil-up-28-percent-year.htm
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I really find it difficult to understand what drives his adherents to comment when so much info is freely available for them to check before making such asses of themselves???
I'm on HotWhops e-mail list and had been debating whether to post this or not, The mans a joke.
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I wasn't aware that the sensituivity of the climate in relation to CO2 increases was known but still under debate.
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USGS scientists have determined that high-salinity groundwater found more than 1,000 meters (0.6 mi.) deep under the Chesapeake Bay is actually remnant water from the Early Cretaceous North Atlantic Sea and is probably 100-145 million years old. This is the oldest sizeable body of seawater to be identified worldwide.
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Thickness
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In U.S., Winters Warming but Precipitation More Nuanced
The Winter Solstice arrives on Saturday, marking a headlong plunge into winter. Looking at the past 42 years of data shows that almost the entirety of the Lower 48 has warmed over the season. Precipitation trends show more regional differences, though.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/winters-warming-in-the-u.s.-precipitation-more-nuanced-16868
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Quantitatively evaluating the effects of CO2 emission on temperature rise
AbstractThis study quantitatively evaluated the effect of carbon dioxide emissions (CDE) on temperature change in five regions and globally through an elasticity coefficient method. The results revealed that for the period 1960–2008, the sensitivity of temperature to CO2 emission in North America was the highest with an elasticity coefficient of 0.317; South America was the lowest with elasticity of 0.005. The contribution of CO2 to temperature rise in North America and Oceania are the largest during 1990–2008, reaching 57.8% and 51.5% respectively. The contribution rates in Asia, South America, and Africa were 43.7%, 38.9%, and 34.2%, respectively. For the period 1960–2010, the temperature elasticity values of the entire world in relation to CDE are 0.0213, indicating that a 100% change in CDE will result in a 2.13% change in global temperature. It is estimated that CDE is responsible for 50.2% of the global temperature increase during 1990–2010, which in turn leads to the implication that CDE is the important reason for global warming.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040618213009129
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I also posted the same information, without the DM gloss in the refreeze thread earlier this morning that didn't seem to warrant a comment,
The significant quote as far as I can see is:
While this increase in ice volume is welcome news, it does not indicate a reversal in the long-term trend.
“It’s estimated that there was around 20 000 cubic kilometres of Arctic sea ice each October in the early 1980s, and so today’s minimum still ranks among the lowest of the past 30 years,†said Professor Andrew Shepherd from University College London, a co-author of the study.
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latest post at by Stefan Rahmstorf "The global temperature jigsaw"
Conclusion
Global temperature has in recent years increased more slowly than before, but this is within the normal natural variability that always exists, and also within the range of predictions by climate models – even despite some cool forcing factors such as the deep solar minimum not included in the models. There is therefore no reason to find the models faulty. There is also no reason to expect less warming in the future – in fact, perhaps rather the opposite as the climate system will catch up again due its natural oscillations, e.g. when the Pacific decadal oscillation swings back to its warm phase. Even now global temperatures are very high again – in the GISS data, with an anomaly of + 0.77 °C November was warmer than the previous record year of 2010 (+ 0.67 °), and it was the warmest November on record since 1880.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/12/the-global-temperature-jigsaw/
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Sorry BFTV I know you had already posted the data.
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That's odd I was just going to post this.
Last month saw the hottest global November surface temperature on record, according to the latest data from NASA
Earth’s surface temperature in °C for each November since 1880 (compared to base period, 1951-1980). Red line is smoothing with a 15-year filter.
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South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 15/12/13 18z ------>
in Regional
Posted
Quite foul here.
8/8 St 300ft. SW 37mph gusting 60. Continuous moderate rain. Temp 11C. Pressure 991mb falling. Enough said.