knocker
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Posts posted by knocker
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Quite meaningless but the complete GFS run to 2nd Jan. Just picked the 27nd as the most interesting.
http://www.weathercharts.org/wetterzentrale-t120-t384.htm#384
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Sea stars off the nation’s eastern and western coasts are dying in large numbers and in the most undignified ways. Their colorful limbs are curling up at the tips. Squiggly arms are detaching from dying bodies like tails from lizards and wiggling until they also drop dead. Ulcers are opening holes in tissue, allowing internal organs to ooze out.
Video: Sea stars (starfish) die-off seen in West Seattle waters
Followup: Sea stars (starfish) still dying, still mysteriously
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Long-lived deep-sea corals preserve evidence of a major shift in the open Pacific Ocean ecosystem since around 1850, according to a study by researchers at the University of California, Santa Cruz. The findings, published December 15 in Nature, indicate that changes at the base of the marine food web observed in recent decades in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre may have begun more than 150 years ago at the end of the Little Ice Age.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/12/131215160902.htm
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CryoSat: Arctic sea ice up from record low
We have monthly PIOMAS updates, a new sea ice thickness product derived from SMOS brightness temperatures was presented earlier this month (see video), and now it's time for some more news from the third of the thickness trident: CryoSat-2.
From the European Space Agency website:
Measurements from ESA’s CryoSat satellite show that the volume of Arctic sea ice has significantly increased this autumn.
The volume of ice measured this autumn is about 50% higher compared to last year.
In October 2013, CryoSat measured about 9000 cubic km of sea ice – a notable increase compared to 6000 cubic km in October 2012.
Over the last few decades, satellites have shown a downward trend in the area of Arctic Ocean covered by ice. However, the actual volume of sea ice has proven difficult to determine because it moves around and so its thickness can change.
CryoSat was designed to measure sea-ice thickness across the entire Arctic Ocean, and has allowed scientists, for the first time, to monitor the overall change in volume accurately.
About 90% of the increase is due to growth of multiyear ice – which survives through more than one summer without melting – with only 10% growth of first year ice. Thick, multiyear ice indicates healthy Arctic sea-ice cover.
This year’s multiyear ice is now on average about 20%, or around 30 cm, thicker than last year.
The difference in volume between this and previous freezing seasons seemed to be getting smaller according to the last PIOMAS update. Hopefully the CryoSat team can regularly keep us up-to-date on their data as well. Their product has proven extremely useful so far.
“One of the things we’d noticed in our data was that the volume of ice year-to-year was not varying anything like as much as the ice extent – at least in 2010, 2011 and 2012,†said Rachel Tilling from the UK’s Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, who led the study.
“We didn’t expect the greater ice extent left at the end of this summer’s melt to be reflected in the volume. But it has been, and the reason is related to the amount of multiyear ice in the Arctic.â€
While this increase in ice volume is welcome news, it does not indicate a reversal in the long-term trend.
“It’s estimated that there was around 20 000 cubic kilometres of Arctic sea ice each October in the early 1980s, and so today’s minimum still ranks among the lowest of the past 30 years,†said Professor Andrew Shepherd from University College London, a co-author of the study.
The findings from a team of UK researchers at the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling were presented last week at the American Geophysical Union’s autumn meeting in San Francisco, California.
“We are very pleased that we were able to present these results in time for the conference despite some technical problems we had with the satellite in October, which are now completely solved,†said Tommaso Parrinello, ESA’s CryoSat Mission Manager.
In October, CryoSat’s difficulties with its power system threatened the continuous supply of data, but normal operations resumed just over a week later.
With the seasonal freeze-up now underway, CryoSat will continue its routine measurement of sea ice. Over the coming months, the data will reveal just how much this summer’s increase has affected winter ice volumes.
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Assessing the impact of climate change on a global scale
Thirty research teams in 12 different countries have systematically compared state-of-the-art computer simulations of climate change impact to assess how climate change might influence global drought, water scarcity and river flooding in the future.Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-12-impact-climate-global-scale.html#jCp-
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Great article by talented illustrator. Nothing controversial about this.
http://skepticalscience.com/behindthelines_herschelexperiment.html
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I stand by what I said. They were indeed monitoring ozone before but did not or were not able to detect the thinning until the 70s.
It was actually 1984. Care to explain why the 1957-77 values are wrong as I assume this is what you are saying?
However, it seems reasonably certain from a critical consideration of the satellite data over the period 1979-86 the actual decrease in global-mean total ozone was about five per cent (Bowman, 1988), an appreciable but not catastrophic fall. It was therefore sensational when BAS observations by conventional spectrophotometric measurements from the ground at Halley Station showed a deep minimum in spring with the 1984 values down by about a third from the 1957-77 values (Farman et al)
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"They" did not know about the ozone hole until until technology allowed them to detect it. It is unknown and impossible to determine whether this hole existed or not before this discovery although it is now known that the size does fluctuate. Therefore recovery (to what exactly) are they talking about?
That of course is completely untrue. They were measuring column ozone using the Dobson Spectrophotometer decades prior to the discovery of the hole and it was this instrument that discovered it. It was not there before. I assume by 'technology allowed them to detect it' you mean satellites confirmed it. Obviously recovery to pre-CFC levels. but slowed down by the Stratosphere cooling.
They do know it wasn't there in the 50s, 60s and 70s and suddenly appeared with the advent of CFCs and Molina & Rowland (1974) pointed out that CFCs transported into the stratosphere would be photolysed to yield reactive chlorine, which in turn would destroy ozone. Which it then went on to do. Another damn coincidence.
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/64332-antarctic-ice-discussion/page-35#entry2861164
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http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-45#entry2862994
Our definitions of rant seem to differ. It was merely an attempt to put into context the post on the other thread that the article is an interesting read, Then on reflection that could apply whichever way you look at it. I quite agree regarding 'denier' but it's precisely inaccurate and biased articles such as this that deniers jump on with glee as I attempted to point out above. By so doing they do the debate no favours.
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Well Knocker if you bother to read some of my previous posts you would see what my take is but then that would seem hard work for some who would rather use sarcasm as a mean's of debate
I did read your earlier posts on the subject but you appear to doing something that you advocate against. That is casting theoretical doubts against some slam dunk science. Another point that should be considered is that global warming has slowed the recovery of the ozone hole(s).
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And you never know GW we might actually find out CO2 isn't the great evil and that CFC's and other pollutants don't have the the catastophic influence on our atmosphere that the 'THEORIES' and 'MODELS' would have us believe
What was theoretical about the Ozone Hole? I take it then you have another explanation that you are about to share, not only with us but also a couple of Nobel prize winners.
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Key climate change committe is in the pay of green business (interesting read)
Of course it isn't interesting whatsoever and a good lesson in taking little notice of the Daily Mail. Cutting to the chase HotWhopper has had close look at this and I await reasonable rebuttal of her salient points. A quick word on HW first.
I'm a sixties-something woman with an interest in climate science. I have a Bachelor of Agricultural Science (Honours) and an MBA and work as a freelance consultant. Other interests include photography and computers among other things. (The blog cover pic is a photo of one of the three major fires in the past decade that surrounded our town and destroyed huge areas of forest and farmland, caused the death of a firefighter and killed two local residents.)
I started this blog to shine a spotlight on misogyny and the rejection of climate science. (Yes, they do seem to go hand-in-hand to some extent.) I expect HotWhopper will cover more topics as it evolves. It's not a high-brow blog, it's rife with bad puns and sarcasm and snark. But the science it refers to is solid.
I won't reproduce all that she said here because the link is far easier but................................AW has jumped on the band wagon.
In a fit of recklessness Anthony Watts has posted an article with the title:
Anthony Watts @wattsupwiththat throws caution to the wind..
EXPOSED: David Rose rips UK climate change committee for being on the take
I've archived the WUWT article here and the David Rose article in Mail Online here.
UK Climate Change Committee "on the take"? Anthony Watts is accusing highly respected and prominent UK citizens of criminal activity. He is probably leaving himself open to being sued by members of the UK Climate Change Committee if not the UK Government itself. And maybe even by The Daily Mail and David Rose. Would any of them bother? I don't know.
The Rose article stops short of alleging that the members of the UK Committee on Climate Change are "on the take" but he does skate very close to that, implying that there is potential for them to benefit, writing:
So which of the nine members does Rose allege "had or still have financial interests in firms that benefit from its rulings"? David Rose draws a very long bow and is walking a thin line, and arguably is on the wrong side of that line. Anthony Watts crossed right over the line.The Mail on Sunday’s investigation has established that four of its nine members have recently had or still have financial interests in firms that benefit from its rulings.
And to conclude the expose of the expose
Better yet, I expect still on David Rose's "to do" list is an investigative report into the Global Warming Policy Foundation.
The future is renewable but UK taxpayers still subsidise dirty coal
By the way, half of David Rose's article has nothing to do with the UK Committee on Climate Change. In the top half of the Rose article he describes how there is money to be made in renewables. The slant he takes is that the money being made at present hinges on subsidies. That may be so now but it won't always be the case.
What David Rose doesn't let on is that the fossil fuel sector in the UK is getting greater subsidies than wind power in the UK.
Nor does he let on to his readers that UK taxpayers will be subsidising dirty coal in the UK for years and years.
As usual the comments from the illiterati are informative.
In short it's a load of hot air avidly pounced upon by the deniers who feel the need to go into a feeding frenzy when poisonded scraps are thrown there way. A classic case of twisting something to fit a perverse ideology that cannot be sustained by sticking to the facts. Probably because there are so few of them.
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LOL defies all logic.Record ice growth and you still look for melt sad .For example the Emperor Penguin had to march a extra 25 k to reach the same breeding grounds .
What is sad is that you don't seem able to differentiate between sea ice and land ice sheets.
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October 23, 2012Antarctica is shedding an average of 190 billion tonnes of ice everyday, according to a landmark study that used satellites to ''weigh''the vast landmass.Although parts of East Antarctica are growing, glaciers in WestAntarctica are melting faster, leading to a net loss of ice across thecontinent, according to the study published in the journal Nature.''We're confident that the ice cover is shrinking, and the rate alongthe Amundsen Sea coast is accelerating,'' said the lead researcherProfessor Matt King, of the University of Tasmania.Rapid melting in some parts of the continent is partially offset byheavy snowfalls elsewhere, meaning that the net loss of ice per yearis about 69 billion tonnes.Previous studies had struggled toaccurately map the land mass under most of Antarctica's huge iceshelves, and this knowledge is crucial to measuring the thickness ofthe ice.
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/alt.global-warming/FBvoL8bg3fk
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Apologies this is a bit out of date being four days old.
East Antarctica is sliding sideways: Ice loss on West Antarctica affecting mantle flow below
Now that West Antarctica is losing weight—that is, billions of tons of ice per year—its softer mantle rock is being nudged westward by the harder mantle beneath East Antarctica.
The discovery comes from researchers led by The Ohio State University, who have recorded GPS measurements that show West Antarctic bedrock is being pushed sideways at rates up to about twelve millimeters—about half an inch—per year. This movement is important for understanding current ice loss on the continent, and predicting future ice loss.
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-12-east-antarctica-sideways-ice-loss.html#jCpThe continent of Antarctica has been losing more than 100 cubic kilometers (24 cubic miles) of ice per year since 2002.
Source: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/20100108_Is_Antarctica_Melting.html
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http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-45#entry2862370
The fact that you have posted something countless times doesn't of course make it correct. Rather it just emphasises the error.
http://ossfoundation.us/projects/environment/global-warming/pacific-decadal-oscillation-pdo
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Back to basics.
The key to understanding simultaneous warming in the Antarctic region and increases sea ice extent is well explained in Zhang 2007:
The model shows that an increase in surface air temperature and downward longwave radiation results in an increase in the upper-ocean temperature and a decrease in sea ice growth, leading to a decrease in salt rejection from ice, in the upper-ocean salinity, and in the upper-ocean density. The reduced salt rejection and upper-ocean density and the enhanced thermohaline stratification tend to suppress convective overturning, leading to a decrease in the upward ocean heat transport and the ocean heat flux available to melt sea ice. The ice melting from ocean heat flux decreases faster than the ice growth does in the weakly stratified Southern Ocean, leading to an increase in the net ice production and hence an increase in ice mass. This mechanism is the main reason why the Antarctic sea ice has increased in spite of warming conditions both above and below during the period 1979–2004 and the extended period 1948–2004.
Generally, in SH winter, ice extent can grow more than usual, while in summer the overall satellite observations show that ice mass of Antarctica is decreasing.
With more snow precipitation in Antarctica one might expect that the ice mass would grow as well, but at this time the ice discharge (calving) rates are increasing.
Data confirms these three factors:
- Antarctica is warming
- Antarctic sea ice extent is increasing
- Antarctic land Ice mass is decreasing
A warmer world seems to translate to more snow but faster loss of that snow in the spring/summer months.
http://ossfoundation.us/projects/environment/global-warming/antarctic-ice-melt
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Dismal just about covers it. 8/8 St 300ft, continuous slight rain, temp 9C and wind S 10mph. Vis very poor.
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The National Research Council is pleased to present this video that explains how scientists have arrived at the current state of knowledge about recent climate change and its causes. This is part six of a seven-part series, available on the National Academies channel.
By "bungee-jumping off the climate roller coaster," Richard Alley shows that Earth's climate doesn't always change gradually.
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The Seven Powers of Planet Earth
…that is, the Seven Main Power and Policy development and implementation “Complexes†which run Human Society here on Happy Planet Earth and are preventing serious action on both Climate Change and regarding the many issues and problems deriving from Limits to Growth on a finite planet, while at the same time also creating numerous additional ones nearly as serious (though perhaps not quite) ….
I believe there are seven main such “Power and Policy†“Complexes†which shape and determine policies and outcomes in the United States and elsewhere in the Western “democraciesâ€. And although somewhat differently, also in countries like Russia and China and other… “emerging countriesâ€. (and incidentally in what sense can a country with a more than 5000 year history be considered to be "emerging"...as it often is referred to?) -
Another difference between the Arctic and Antarctic that Jason Box and others are currently investigating is the effect of soot in the arctic. There was a presentation about sensitivity of Greenland reflectivity to black carbon at the recent AGU13. (Haven't seen a transcript). The Dark snow project is ongoing.
Soot is a multiplier in the “albedo feedback†that has doubled surface melting on Greenland in the last decade. Jet stream heat waves alone don’t double Greenland’s sea level contribution. Also since my last message to you, we’ve now published a unified theory that links surface melting with ice flow.
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Thank God for some common sense in the debate.
America Needs Fatima, a project of the right-wing American Society for the Defense of Tradition, Family, and Property, is linking the tornadoes that hit Illinois this weekend to the state’s recent approval of a marriage equality bill. Robert Ritchie, the group’s executive director, is just asking the question:
http://climatecrocks.com/2013/12/13/new-right-wing-climate-theory-tornadoes-stronger-because-gays/
Moving out from God's shadow
Are Tornadoes Getting Stronger? New Research Hints yes…http://climatecrocks.com/2013/12/13/are-tornadoes-getting-stronger-new-research-hints-yes/
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Or the same weather pattern that is happening now occur in a mini ice age?
At last the usual non sequitur. For a minute I thought I was going to be disappointed.
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Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects
in Climate Change
Posted · Edited by knocker
That's odd I was just going to post this.
Last month saw the hottest global November surface temperature on record, according to the latest data from NASA
Earth’s surface temperature in °C for each November since 1880 (compared to base period, 1951-1980). Red line is smoothing with a 15-year filter.