[Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022]

No significant changes with the NH profile this evening. Some slight differences with the structure/alignment of the tpv which impacts to some extent on the position of the surface high cell in relation to the UK and thus some variation vis the detail, Likely very dry and temps around average but perhaps a tad above over the northern half of the country

[Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022]

And a quick preempt of this evening's gfs ext/ec weeklies outputs with a glance at this morning's extended. The salient ppoints: Aleutian low/Alaskan ridge > Siberia adjacent to the tpv lobe northern Canada > northern Russia; strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard around the subtropical high, amplifying to some extent in mid Atlantic, to the east European trough. Likely pretty dry with temps around average

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

After a cloudless morning a fair amount of Cu build up in the last hour quickly flattening out to Sc

satellite image from METOP-C overhead at 2022/01/13 11:15 UTC

[Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022]

The 06 ecm

[Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022]

Tropopause fold at Keflavik with 187kt jet?

[Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022]

The differences between the gfs/ecm/NOAA this evening still revolve around the amplification and position of the Atlantic HP, and thus the position of the Euro trough. And although high pressure does remain influential over the UK during the period these differences are reflected in the structure and orientation of it. Likely remaining dry with any precipitation in the NW

[Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022]

Trough disruption at the beginning of the week creating another cut off upper low and giving the high pressure a wee boost

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Cracking day, wall to wall sunshine and little wind

[Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022]

The ext mean eps is little changed from previous comments and the clusters are  indicating nothing sinister lurking in the woodshed with a fairly mobile Atlantic but with the subtropical high retaining a significant interest

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Clear sky, a gentle zephyr, heavy dew, much better

[Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022]

Regarding developments that attracted some attention yesterday. Both the gfs and ecm hang on to high pressure through the beginning of next week, albeit still indicating differences regarding energy distribution and any cold plunge down into Europe, which is well illustrated by the jet profile at t156

[Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022]

There is some disagreement between the gfs/ecm at the beginning of next week involving the storms along the eastern seaboard and the energy distribution/jet profile across the Atlantic. Particularly involving the amplification of the high pressure and the knock on affect downstream of the plunge of cold air from the Russian tpv lobe down into Europe. This has some relevance as the UK is on the western periphery of this. This is reflected by the medium term anomalies. Obviously the detail still needs nailing down but the percentage play is dry with surface temps below average.

[Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022]

The storms over the NE/E North America and the jet profiles at t144

[E.N.S.O. Discussion]

In December 2021, the NINO.3 SST was below normal with a deviation of -1.1°C (Table and Fig.3). SSTs in the equatorial Pacific were above normal in the western part and below normal in the central to eastern parts (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were above normal in the western part and below normal in the central to eastern parts (Fig.5 and Fig.7). In the atmosphere, convective activity near the date line over the equatorial Pacific was below normal and easterlies in the lower troposphere (i.e., trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific were stronger than normal (Fig.8, Fig.9, Fig.10). These patterns in the atmosphere and ocean are consistent with features commonly seen in past La Niña events and indicate that La Niña conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific.

The subsurface cold water volume observed in the eastern equatorial Pacific contributed to keeping SSTs below normal. Meanwhile warm water volume in the western equatorial Pacific began to propagrate eastward. JMA's El Niño prediction model predicts that the NINO.3 SST persists to be below -0.5°C until the end of this winter, then it rises and comes closer to normal towards the coming spring in association with eastward propagation of the warm water in the western equatorial Pacific (Fig.11). In conclusion, the La Niña conditions are likely to continue at least until the end of boreal winter (80%) (Fig.1 and Fig.2), and transfer to ENSO-neutral by the end of spring (80%).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was near normal in December (Fig.3). The index is likely to be near normal until boreal spring (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was below normal in December (Fig.3). The index is likely to be below or near normal until boreal spring (Fig.13).

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.html

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

For the benefit of any statisticians. Just to note that “possibly the biggest turn around in the history of NW” cropped up today for the 45th time since 2010.

[Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022]

46 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

rather cloudy too?...

A bit tricky at this range. Dependent on the structure and orientation of the HP

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Stratus, light rain, little wind and everything sopping wet. Be glad when the front goes through later

[Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022]

The ext mean anomalies this morning have a familiar look. The salient points; Aleutian low/NE Pacific ridge extending to Siberia; adjacent to to tpv aligned northern Canada > north Russia; strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard south of the Canadian lobe around the subtropical high amplifying to some extent in the eastern Atlantic. Likely quite dry with temps around average,

[Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022]

The mean anomalies this evening reflect the impact of the east coast storm(s) with the gfs retaining greater amplitude of the Atlantic high pressure and thus the tpv lobe having greater European influence and the UK temps a tad below average. NOAA not averse to this solution

[Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022]

The different interpretaion of the handling of east coast storms and the knock on affects downstream

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

2 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Well we all know the rare breed on here who are mild lovers will go for P16 at the same time frame

 

 

Speaking as one of the rare breed, it really quite despicable to tar us with the same brush as the cold fraternity.

[Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022]

A very grotty day down here at the moment in the warm sector with Stratus, drizzle and zilch vis. Here the travels of the cold front over the next 24 hours or so before the onset of drier and more settled weather

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Stratus, light drizzle and breezy

[Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022]

During the medium term the secondary tpv lobe northern Russia becomes well established but developments upstream are of more interest as the subtropical high in mid Atlantic gets a boost. Thus the strong upper flow tends to remain to the north of the UK resulting in a pretty dry period

[Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022]

The frontal system currently affecting the country should be the last for a while. Today the warm front will track NE briefly introducing milder air whilst tomorrow the cold front will clear Kent during the afternoon whilst the ridge builds from the south west

And for the rest of the week high pressure is in charge and thus light winds and likely some morning frost and mist/fog. But a fair amount going on upstream with both the gfs/ecm running a trough up the eastern seaboard, boosting the jet and promoting the subtropical ridge