knocker
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Posts posted by knocker
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Must be a lag in recognising the lag.
Incidently Susan Solomon wrote avery fine book about the ill-fated Scott expedition, "The Coldest March", specifically applying the comparison of modern meteorological data with that recorded by Scott's expedition in an attempt to shed new light on the reasons for the demise of Scott's polar party. it's well worth a read if you are interested in the subject. -
The unseasonable weather continues in Nuuk with a temp of plus 1 this morning although the forecast is for temperatures nearer the climatic average.
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Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions.
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/01/28/0812721106.full.pdf#page=1&view=FitH
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Fine morning with an 1/8 of Cu and 4/8s of Ci. The low sun shows the Ci reasonable well.
Temp 0.1
Min -0.4
GM -3
Wind NE 11mph
Vis. 20k
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Why not look at some relevant archive radiosonde ascents for the period as they will give you the depth of instability. Valentia or Castor Bay may be of interest.
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The Whitworth Meteorological Observatory is a fully-automated, state of the art meteorological facility, replacing the original observatory set up and located in Whitworth Park in August 1892.
The new site, funded by the legacy of Sir Joseph Whitworth, will fulfil his wish to maintain the original observatory as a source of data for scientific, education and popular interest following the demise of the original in 1958.
Data from the new observatory will be used in support of scientific research projects focusing on urban climatology.
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2010-12/uom-pap122110.php
The website.
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We have also been having exceptionally cold Winters in Northern Europe and Asia over the past couple of years. To my admittedly simple eyes, it just seems as if the cold which is "contained" by the jet stream has been "shifted" by the changing course of that circulation. As I said some days ago....the cold is now "here" instead of "there".
Makes sense to me, even if it doesn't to anyone else!
Wolfie......may I ask a question of you? Do you monitor conditions in areas of the Earth other than the Arctic and Antarctic?
I posted this in another thread recently and I can't actually remember whether it's been posted here before. I have a feeling it has so probably another senior moment.
A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents.
The recent overall Northern Hemisphere warming was accompanied by several severe northern continental winters, as for example, extremely cold winter 2005–2006 in Europe and northern Asia. Here we show that anomalous decrease of wintertime sea ice concentration in the Barents-Kara (B-K) seas could bring about extreme cold events like winter 2005–2006. Our simulations with the ECHAM5 general circulation model demonstrate that lower-troposphere heating over the B-K seas in the Eastern Arctic caused by the sea ice reduction may result in strong anticyclonic anomaly over the Polar Ocean and anomalous easterly advection over northern continents. This causes a continental-scale winter cooling reaching −1.5°C, with more than 3 times increased probability of cold winter extremes over large areas including Europe. Our results imply that several recent severe winters do not conflict the global warming picture but rather supplement it, being in qualitative agreement with the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation realignment. Furthermore, our results suggest that high-latitude atmospheric circulation response to the B-K sea ice decrease is highly nonlinear and characterized by transition from anomalous cyclonic circulation to anticyclonic one and then back again to cyclonic type of circulation as the B-K sea ice concentration gradually reduces from 100% to ice free conditions. We present a conceptual model that may explain the nonlinear local atmospheric response in the B-K seas region by counter play between convection over the surface heat source and baroclinic effect due to modified temperature gradients in the vicinity of the heating area.
Adapted story:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/11/101117114028.htm
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In a study published December 20 in the Proceedings of the National Academy Sciences (PNAS), a team of researchers including University of New Hampshire scientists Wilfred Wollheim, William McDowell, and Jody Potter details findings that show emissions of the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide from global rivers and streams are three times previous estimates used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – the leading international body for the assessment of climate change.
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2010-12/uonh-ush122110.php
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Snow showers between 7 and 8 but now clear with 1/8 large Cu.
Temp 1.0
Min -2.0
GM -7
Wind ENE 7mph
Vis 30k
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Perhaps this may help. Or perhaps not.
A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents.
The recent overall Northern Hemisphere warming was accompanied by several severe northern continental winters, as for example, extremely cold winter 2005–2006 in Europe and northern Asia. Here we show that anomalous decrease of wintertime sea ice concentration in the Barents-Kara (B-K) seas could bring about extreme cold events like winter 2005–2006. Our simulations with the ECHAM5 general circulation model demonstrate that lower-troposphere heating over the B-K seas in the Eastern Arctic caused by the sea ice reduction may result in strong anticyclonic anomaly over the Polar Ocean and anomalous easterly advection over northern continents. This causes a continental-scale winter cooling reaching −1.5°C, with more than 3 times increased probability of cold winter extremes over large areas including Europe. Our results imply that several recent severe winters do not conflict the global warming picture but rather supplement it, being in qualitative agreement with the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation realignment. Furthermore, our results suggest that high-latitude atmospheric circulation response to the B-K sea ice decrease is highly nonlinear and characterized by transition from anomalous cyclonic circulation to anticyclonic one and then back again to cyclonic type of circulation as the B-K sea ice concentration gradually reduces from 100% to ice free conditions. We present a conceptual model that may explain the nonlinear local atmospheric response in the B-K seas region by counter play between convection over the surface heat source and baroclinic effect due to modified temperature gradients in the vicinity of the heating area.
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Aerosols: Tiny Particles, Big Impact.
Take a deep breath. Even if the air looks clear, it’s nearly certain that you’ll inhale tens of millions of solid particles and liquid droplets. These ubiquitous specks of matter are known as aerosols, and they can be found in the air over oceans, deserts, mountains, forests, ice, and every ecosystem in between. They drift in Earth’s atmosphere from the stratosphere to the surface and range in size from a few nanometers—less than the width of the smallest viruses—to several several tens of micrometers—about the diameter of human hair. Despite their small size, they have major impacts on our climate and our health.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Aerosols/page1.php
This map shows the global distribution of aerosols and the proportion of those aerosols that are large or small. Intense colors indicate a thick layer of aerosols. Yellow areas are predominantly coarse particles, like dust, and red areas are mainly fine aerosols, like smoke or pollution. Gray indicates areas with no data. (NASA map by Robert Simmon, based on MODIS data from NASA Earth Observations.)
Image NASA
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Place your bets. What odds on global cooling?
According to an ongoing temperature analysis conducted by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), the average global temperature on Earth has increased by about 0.8°Celsius (1.4°Fahrenheit) since 1880. Two-thirds of the warming has occurred since 1975, at a rate of roughly 0.15-0.20°C per decade.
http://earthobservat...ew.php?id=47628
Images credit NASA
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Does this help. Note Carlisle 8.2 and Keswick 20.2.
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November 30 marked the end of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Throughout the season, nineteen named storms formed over the basin, making it the third most active season on record, tied with 1887 and 1995. Twelve of those storms became hurricanes, and five of them became major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). It was the most active season since the record-breaking 2005 season. (For a comparison between the two seasons, see the TRMM web site.)
This image shows the paths taken by the storms and the rainfall associated with each storm throughout the season. The rainfall measurements are from the Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis, which is based on data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. Although most of the major storms missed the continental United States, curving back out to sea instead, hurricanes and tropical storms did major damage to Haiti, eastern Mexico, and Central America.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=47511
Image credit NASA
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SORCE's Solar Spectral Surprise.
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/solarsystem/features/solarcycle-sorce.html
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Great morning with 1/8 of Cu.
Temp 2.1
Min. 0
Vis 30km
Wind NNE light
The 0600z surface chart
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The following is the text that accompanied a small published picture book of photographs of the destruction caused by the St. Louis tornado of May 27, 1896. The text is noteworthy because it provides a glimpse of the havoc and human suffering caused by a major weather disaster striking a large metropolitan area. It is also of interest because it is one of the first descriptions of a large tornado striking a modern urban area dependent on electrical power and other integrated utility services. The disruption of transportation and communications systems evident in this disaster is eerily reminiscent of problems associated with recent natural disasters. However, recent disasters of similar or greater magnitude, such as the Oklahoma City tornadoes of May 4, 1999, have not caused as great of loss of life because of vastly improved observation and warning networks established by the National Weather Service and cooperating private and public radio and television networks.
http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/nws/tornado.html
Photos courtesy NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) Collection
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Either and both.
Briefly regarding stratospheric ozone.
Stratospheric ozone absorbs significant amounts of both incoming ultraviolet radiation, harmful to life, and outgoing terrestrial long-wave reradiation, so that its overall thermal role is a complex one. Its net effect on earrh surface temperatures depends on the elevation at which the absorption occurs, being to some extent a trade-off between short-and long-wave absorption in that:
1 An increase of ozone above about 30 km absorbs relatively more incoming short-wave radiation, causing a net decrease of surface temperatures.
2 An increase of ozone below about 25 km absorbs relatively more outgoing long-wave radiation, causing a net increase of surface temperatures.
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Exactly 150 years after the "Washington and Jefferson Storm" which dropped 3 feet of snow on the region, came the deepest snow of this century to the greater Washington and Baltimore region. The snow came on the heels of a cold spell. High temperatures did not climb above freezing from the 24 through the 28th and the low temperature dipped to 11�F on the 26th. Snow began at 4:30 p.m. on the 27th and continued until just past midnight on the morning of the 29th. A record 21 inches fell in a 24 hour period on the 28th. The heavy band of snow stretched across Richmond (19 inches), Washington, DC (28 inches), and Baltimore (25 inches) immobilizing the region. Strong north to northeast winds accompanied the storm drifting snow into deep banks. Roads were blocked. Main highways were the first to open in 2 to 4 days.
On the evening of the 28th, the weight of the snow became too much for the Knickerbocker Theater on 18th Street and Columbia in Northwest Washington, DC. The horrible scene was described in the Washington Post on January 29th and 30th and was reprinted in the Post on January 19, 1996 following another big snow. They described it as "the greatest disaster in Washington's History". The theater was cramped with an estimated 900 movie goers. The roof of the theater collapsed taking the balcony down with it and crushing 98 people below to death and injuring another 158. People were
pulled from the rubble for hours and bodies were pulled out for days. A small boy squeezed into small holes and between crumbled cement slabs to give those injured and trapped pain pills. From this disaster, the storm is known historically as the
"Knickerbocker Storm".http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/Historic_Events/StormsOfCentury.html
Video of Knickerbocker Theater disaster.
Photos courtesy NOAA National Weather Service Collection.
Weather charts courtesy NOAA Central Library Data Imaging Project
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Quite windy with rain during the night but now a very pleasant morning. About 3/8s of cloud with a touch of Ci and small Cu.
Temp 2.2
Min -.8
GM -5
Vis 35km
Wind light
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From March 11th-12th 1888 there was an unseasonable and devastating snowstorm from the Chesapeake Bay to Maine. The cities of Washington, Philadelphia, Boston and New York City were paralyzed. This incredible "Nor'easter" dumped 50 inches of snow in Connecticut and Massachusetts while New Jersey and the state of New York had 40 inches. Drifts of 40 to 50 feet high buried houses and trains. From Chesapeake Bay to Nantucket, 200 ships were sunk with 400 lives lost.
Photos courtesy NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) Collection
Weather chart NOAA Central Library Data Imaging Project
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Overcast with continuous slight rain. We are just (I mean just) catching the northern edge of the system to the south moving into France.
Temp 2.0
Min. -1.0
Grass min. -6
Wind 110 15kts.
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Will more Ozone make us warmer or colder?
Tropospheric or stratospheric ozone?
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The Panama Canal closed for 17 hours in early December 2010, only the third time in its 96-year history. Authorities closed the canal after heavy rains raised two artificial lakes associated with it, Alajuela and Gatun, to unprecedented levels. The heavy rains occurred in a persistent low-pressure area along the Intertropical Convergence Zone where winds from the Northern and Southern Hemispheres meet and fuel strong storms. The canal-closing rains in Panama continued a pattern of heavy rain in Central and South America from the previous month.
This color-coded image shows rainfall amounts from December 6 to December 12, 2010. The heaviest rainfall—more than 600 millimeters or nearly 24 inches—appears in dark blue. The lightest amounts—less than 75 millimeters or 3 inches—appear in light green. The heaviest rainfall occurs along the coast of northeastern Panama. Another pocket of heavy rain occurs along Colombia’s Pacific coast.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=47745
Image NASA
Incidently Susan Solomon wrote avery fine book about the ill-fated Scott expedition, "The Coldest March", specifically applying the comparison of modern meteorological data with that recorded by Scott's expedition in an attempt to shed new light on the reasons for the demise of Scott's polar party. it's well worth a read if you are interested in the subject.
Stratosphere Temperature Watch
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Does the pool of very cold air lying to the north and east of Britain at 30 and 10mb have any significant influence on the tropospheric circulation patterns that currently exist?