Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

knocker

Members
  • Posts

    46,821
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    333

Posts posted by knocker

  1. It would appear there are a number of contrasting factors which will come together to produce either a notably cold winter or notably mild winter...................

    Such as? As it stands it doesn't tell the uninitiated a great deal. All options are open.

  2. *Chemtrails may be a conspiracy theory, but "global dimming" is real. It's been measured. I remember when it first hit the news they concentrated on industrial pollution, and only mentioned aircraft in passing. They mentioned that the dimming seemed to reverse in the 1990s as all the laws on pollution at ground level took effect, but I believe that the increase in aircraft has now wiped that out.

    I don't think anyone is arguing that global dimming, or to be more precise the currently occurring, widespread and significant reduction in global irradiance is not important. It is true that in the early days of measuring global irradiance aircraft played a lesser role but that was because air traffic was much lighter then. Who are they (they keep cropping up) that mention the reversal of dimming in the 1990s? I ask because a review of the published information on secular changes in irradiance up to 2000 concluded that globally the decrease averaged 2.7% per decade and now totals 20Wm-2 . This is a very complicated subject and obviously aircraft, and for that matter cars, play a role, but I don't believe the 5% figure for a second unless you have some evidence to back up the statement.

    An extract from an article Global Dimming-A new aspect of climate change by G. Stanhill. (Weather Jan. 2005 Vol. 60. No. 1

    "The diurnal temperature range (DTR) is closely linked with , and is often used as a proxy measure for calculating global radiation (Bristow and Campbell 1984; Thornton and Running 1999). The physical basis for this linkage is that part of the solar energy absorbed at the earth's surface is convected into the lower atmosphere where it raises the daytime maximum temperature above the night-time minimum. A second factor which controls DTR is the degree of surface wetness which determines the partitioning of solar heating between convective and latent heat fluxes; DTR is greatest at non evaporating desert sites and least at ocean island sites. This effect of surface wetness has been allowed for by including a rainfall term in the equations used to calculate irradiance from DTR"

    A striking example of a wide-scale, man induced change in DTR was provided by the 11 September terrorist attacks in New York and Washington when commercial air traffic in the USA was grounded for three days. During this period DTR was 1.8 degC above climatological normal, almost certainly as a result in the observed reduction in contrail trail-induced cirrus cloud cover which presumably led to an increase in irradiance, (Travis et 01. 2002). Another man-made climate change experiment occurs each year in Israel on the Day of Atonement when road traffic ceases. Measurements between 1965 and 2003 at the Israel Meteorological Services Observatory at Bet Dagan, close to two major traffic interchanges, show that DTR increased by an average of 0.3 degC while irradiance, increased by an average of 9.72Wm-2 as compared with the values measured seven days before and after the fast day".

    I will leave your comments on changing weather patterns to higher authority except to say the ubiquitous they have cropped up again! (They attributed the African famines of the 70s/80s to dimming not allowing the rainbelts to move north).

  3. My common sense siren is going off in my head reading that ozone layer has such a huge impact on Antarctic Ice, I think this is a perfect example of researchers studying a specific thing getting caught up in thinking that its the main driver and having blinkers on to other factors going on in our complex climate.

    I'm not sure I agree with that.

    The first comprehensive review of the state of Antarctica’s climate and its relationship to the global climate system is published this week (Tuesday 1 December) by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). The review - Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment – presents the latest research from the icy continent, identifies areas for future scientific research, and addresses the urgent questions that policy makers have about Antarctic melting, sea-level rise and biodiversity.

    http://www.theozonehole.com/ozonehgood.htm

  4. Maybe a slight perspective on this.

    Reporting in the journal Geophysical Research Letters scientists from British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and NASA say that while there has been a dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice, Antarctic sea ice has increased by a small amount as a result of the ozone hole delaying the impact of greenhouse gas increases on the climate of the continent.

    http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/press/press_releases/press_release.php?id=838

  5. Yes, our old friend the NAD is still there, for now :D

    Flicking to ocean temperature does show how the NAD does not apparently have a huge effect on UK costal water T's; the temperature banding is relatively consistent with latitude across the Atlantic - only slight favouring to milder near northern Europe. What I mean is the NAD is not clearly visible as a roasting hot current snaking its way all the way to Land's End, bathing the UK in glowing warmth.

    Perhaps a quick look back at an earlier post.

    With the trade winds blowing westward across the oceans in tropical latitudes and prevailing westerlies blowing eastward at higher latitudes, it is understandable why the current gyres should form the dominant surface current pattern in the low and midlatitudes. What isn’t so obvious, however, is the reason why these currents should be so swift and narrow along the oceans’ western boundaries. What could possibly cause this western intensification of surface currents?

    The Gulf Stream is just one of these swift narrow western boundary currents. A look at the diagram shows that there are similar intensified boundary currents along the western edges of all oceans, in both hemispheres. From considerations of the winds alone, you should think that each current could be half an ocean wide. But they are not, so are why they are so swift and narrow, and why do they occur on the western ocean margins only.

    There are three related processes that contribute to the creation of strong narrow western boundary currents, all of which are products of the Earth’s rotation and atmospheric circulation. The first cause is that when an equatorial surface current runs into the continent on the ocean’s western margin, it “squirts out the sides, just like water in a stream that strikes a rock, or water from a garden hose that strikes the side of a building.

    Second, the Coriolis deflection is stronger in the portion of the gyres at higher latitudes, where these eastward-flowing waters are deflected toward the equator. This pinches the equatorial currents and tends to prevent them from leaving the equator until they reach the very western end.

    The fact that the strength of the Coriolis deflection increases at higher latitudes produces another related effect. When this water is flowing east, it gets deflected quickly toward the equator, whereas when it is flowing west, it is very close to the equator and gets deflected only very weakly. Consequently, the water tends to flow farther to the west than toward the east in any complete cycle, and the gyre tends to move westward across the ocean each time the water flows around it. This westward tendency forces the gyre up against the western margins where the currents are correspondingly compressed and intensified.

    The third cause of the intensified western boundary currents is also related to the earth’s rotation, through the apparent change in the rotational state of objects moving north or south along the Earth’s surface.

    A mass of water starting on the equator with no spin at all appears to acquire a spin as it goes. The farther poleward it goes, the faster it appears to spin. At intermediate latitudes, this amount of spin is less than one complete revolution per day. But if the water mass is wide, it doesn’t have to spin very rapidly for the outer regions to have high speeds. For example, a water mass 1000 kilometers wide and spinning only half a revolution per day would have to move at 65 kilometers per hour on its outer boundary!

    Because of the dominant wind-induced current gyres, surface waters in the western portions of all oceans are traveling away from the equator. As these water masses go toward the pole, they acquire the appropriate spin (clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and counter clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere) to make the current on the very western edge extremely swift.

    Taking all of that into account I suspect although the GS may well vary in intensity over periods it is certainly not a cause for alarm. The NAC is another kettle of fish. The flow is weaker anyway and if the atmospheric western circulation in those latitudes suffered sustained spells of disruption then possibly this and the coriolis could severely slow it down. But this is just a guess.

    EDIT.

    Not to be foregotten. Ocean currents account for a significant proportion of the poleward heat transfer in low latitudes. Fairly recent satellite estimates of the required total poleward energy transfer indicates that the previous figures are too low. The ocean transport may be47% of the total at 30-35N and as much as 74% at 20N; the Gulf Stream and the Huro Shiro currents are particularly important.

    Large scale surface currents. (Source: Keith Stowe-Exploring Ocean Science)

  6. a fascinating read, 10 level model, my how time flies, 60+ I think it is now.

    It also illustrates just how very difficult, be it 1981 or 1987, with the model output and data available it was to get near to the correct forecast. Hindsight is a wonderful attribute but none of us have that sadly.

    Mind you there are times even today when forecasts are not very impressive in a relatively short time scale.

    Meteorology is all science but there is a degree of art in it as well, always will be. The art of 6th guessing just what may happen.

    I didn't realise it was up to 60 these days. Yes I remember the example just a few weeks ago when the rain forecast spreading from the west was still wrong just prior to the event.

  7. The Pacific Northwest should brace for a colder and wetter than average winter, while most of the South and Southeast will be warmer and drier than average through February 2011, according to the annual Winter Outlook released Oct. 21, 2010 by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. A moderate to strong La Niña will be the dominant climate factor influencing weather across most of the U.S. this winter.

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/10/101022072152.htm

    Excuse me fiddling around attempting to get the hang of posting images. Streuth a seven year old could do it in a couple of seconds.

    Posted Image

    Image courtesy of NOAA)

  8. fascinating post there Fred-thanks

    you have a long way to go to catch up with Coast and his superb cover of the Battle of Britain mind you!

    Wouldn't even attempt it John. Any thoughts on this katabatic wind business? It's just about dead flat around Loos but I suppose a small ridge would suffice.

  9. After the British Expeditionary Force went to France in 1914, daily forecasts were provided for its guidance from the Meteorological Office, then under the direction of Dr. W. N. Shaw, with its headquarters in Exhibition Road, South Kensington. When the first Zeppelin raid was made and dropped bombs in the Eastern Counties, it was suggested that the objective had been London and that the design had been frustrated by an unforeseen upper wind that was immediately verified by the meteorological reports. This information stimulated the military authorities, and as it was shortly followed by the first German gas attack in the spring of 1915 it was recognized that the Army in the Field (which then included the Royal Flying Corps) required a meteorological service in its operational area. This was begun in a very small way in June, 19I5, at G.H.Q. St. Omer with two Officers and a Corporal-the former from the Meteorological Office and the University of Aberdeen, the latter from the Gordon Highlanders, then in the front line pear Ypres. The service grew and was established as the Meteorological Section of the Royal Engineers after the battle of Loos, prior to and during which meteorologists had proved to the satisfaction of the Army Command that the forecasts and information which they furnished were trustworthy and essential to the success of operations.

    There is a caveat to this. To compile as good a forecast as he could given the paucity of information it would seem common sense that the forecaster be given all the details of the forthcoming operation. This was not the case. On one occasion-this is difficult to believe- a Meteorological Officer was asked for a weather forecast and when he asked for the time and place received the answer, “I can’t tell you that-it’s too secret-give me your ordinary weather forecastâ€.

    To provide some context prior to Loos a brief description from Haber of the German gas attack at Ypres. It was just after 1700 on Thursday, 22nd April 1915.

    The simultaneous opening of almost 6,000 cylinders which released 150 t of chlorine along 7000m within about ten minutes was spectacular. The front lines were often very close, at one point only 50 m apart.The cloud advanced slowly, moving at about 0.5 mlsec (just over 1 mph). It was white at first, owing to the condensation of the moisture in the surrounding air and, as the volume increased, it turned yellow-green. The chlorine rose quickly to a height of 10-30 m because of the ground temperature, and while diffusion weakened the effectiveness by thinning out the gas it enhanced the physical and psychological shock. Within minutes the Franco-Algerian soldiers in the front and support lines were engulfed and choking. Those who were not suffocating from spasms broke and ran, but the gas followed. The front collapsed.

    The British took less than three months to prepare for retaliation but events didn’t turn out as expected.

    In Haig's view the only redeeming feature of the Loos battle plan, and one in which he was to grow ever more confident, was the recent availability of asphyxiating gas. Having seen the rent torn in the Allied lines at Ypres on 22 April by the first German gas attack, he envisaged the new weapon compensating for the lack of artillery. It was agreed that there was reason for a degree of optimism -but only if the attack was a surprise, the wind favourable, and sufficient gas cylinders brought forward. In preparation, therefore, 8,000 men transported 5,500 cylinders of chlorine gas into the front lines. It was almost exactly half the number requested, so 11,000 smoke candles, 25,000 phosphorus grenades, and 10,000 Stokes mortar smoke bombs were supplemented to at least create the appearance, if not the toxic effect, of the real thing.

    Sappers of the newly formed Royal Engineer 'Special Companies' under the command of Major C. H. Foulkes RE (the initiator of panoramic military photography during the Boer War), tucked the unwieldy cylinders into specially made recesses beneath British parapets, running out hoses into no man's land just as the Germans had done at Ypres in April. Their field company colleagues installed 3,500 trench ladders and prepared 2,500 footbridges for crossing German lines. Then everyone prayed for a westerly breeze for Zero Day.

    The following are notes made by Captain Gold the senior meteorologist to the 1st Army that illustrate vividly the advice given and the action taken.

    “I had for some time been sending Col.Charteris (Intelligence 1st Army) telegrams…. To say the wind would be between S.W. and N.W. and between 4 and 12 miles per hour at dawn the following day. ‘America’ meant ‘yes,’ ‘India’ meant ‘no,’ ‘very good’ meant ‘practically certain,’ ‘good’ meant ‘fair confidence’ and ‘indifferent’ meant ‘not much confidence’.

    “I left G.H.Q. at 12 noon (on the 24th September, 1915)….after my arrival at Advance H.Q. 1st Army General Butler took me to see Sir Douglas Haig-who congratulated on the success of my forecasts-’15 right and a1/2 wrong’ he said. With him were Sir Henry Rawlinson and General Gough. I showed them the charts (of conditions at 7a.m. on the 24th of September) and explained to them that conditions were not very favourable but they were not unfavourable, conditions were in a state of flux and it was not possible to forecast with anything like the same certainty as during the preceding period of stable conditions. Sir Henry Rawlinson wished to know if the Scandinavian anticyclone was likely to reassert itself and bring a fresh period of easterly winds. I said it was improbable for some time and if the wind went round to the East it would only be temporary.

    "My deduction (from the 6 p.m. chart}-was 'much more favourable' and I gave this as my opinion. Upon it, General Butler informed me they had decided to go the whole hog but I was to go round again at 2 a.m. . . .

    “The 1 a.m. message was received at 2.35 a.m. and rapidly charted. . . . I went quickly round to the Chateau and was met by General Butler who took me immediately upstairs to Sir Douglas Haig's room. Sir Douglas said 'well let us see your' chart. ~what are the indications?' I placed the chart before him and told him that conditions were still favourable but only just so. He asked me what I advised as to the time for the attack. I said if it were not for the risk of change in the general situation it would be better to wait until 9 a.m.or later, as the ordinary diurnal effect would tend to take the wind further round to west and, to increase its force ... having regard to this risk (of change in the general situation) I thought no opportunity ought to be let slip. He immediately told General Butler to give instruction for it to be at 5.40 a.m. and to inform Gough and G.H.Q.

    "It was a drizzling rain and dawn was just beginning to break-there seemed to be practically no wind. Sir Douglas asked: Would it be better later if they postponed it? I nervously said there would probably be more wind after the rain ceased. General Butler and Col. Davidson went into the Chateau, picked up telephones and said, , How long would it take you to get orders round for the attack to be postponed; reply to General Butler came ‘It couldn't be done,' whereupon he asked for Gough and told an A.D.C. to come to the telephone. We went out again and General Butler said that at present they were all 'standing by.' Sir Douglas asked for the Gas Adviser. General Butler called an orderly but he did not seem very certain where the Gas Adviser was so I said' I'll go, Sir, it will be quicker, and ran for Foulkes. We ran back and Sir Douglas said ‘I suppose they themselves will not let it off if the wind is not favourable.'Foulkes said' that is so, Sir.' I said the general drift would be towards the east although in some places there might be temporary back currents: Somebody produced a cigarette and lit it; the smoke drifted slowly off to the East. (A General commented on the usefulness of the cigarette: one could fire a mine with it: get the direction of the wind and so on.) The Gas Adviser said the velocity was alright, only the direction was the doubtful matter. Sir Douglas said' Let it go foreward' and walked off to the Observation Tower: while we all stood and watched the drifting smoke from a factory chimney which had just begun to pour forth. There was no mistake about it being from the south-west, but it was rather slow.... The

    scene in the dull grey morning had been a memorable one: the red brick Chateau; the trees with hardly a leaf stirring, the soft rain, the three Generals, one or two Colonels, a Major, the Gas Adviser and the Meteorologist. . . . I felt extremely pleased when I saw a report that an observer had seen the clouds of gas rolling towards the enemy's lines, though the Gas Adviser remarked that first reports were near always optimistic,"

    The wind measured and, reported by trained meteorological observer from 8 places in the forward area behind the front at 5, 6 and 7 a.m. were all between south and west-at 6 a.m. one was south, one W.S.W. and the other S.S.W. or S.W. by W. except one, which having been S.W. by W. at 5 a.m had fallen calm by 6 a.m.

    In the event the gas attack proved pretty disastrous. A description by Robert Graves gives the flavour.

    “It seems that at half past four an R.E. captain commanding the gas company in the front line phoned through to divisional headquarters: 'Dead calm. Impossible discharge accessory.' The answer he got was: 'Accessory to be discharged at all costs.' Thomas had not overestimated the gas-company's efficiency. 'The spanners for unscrewing the cocks of the cylinders proved, with two or three exceptions, to be misfits. 'The gas-men rushed about shouting for the loan of an adjustable spanner. They managed to discharge one or two cylinders; the gas went whistling out, formed a thick cloud a few yards off in No Man's Land, and then gradually spread back into our trenches. The Germans, who had been expecting gas, immediately put on their gas-helmets: semi-rigid ones, better than ours. Bundles of oily cotton waste were strewn along the German parapet and set alight as a barrier to the gas. Then their batteries opened on our lines. The confusion in the front trench must have been horrible; direct hits broke several of the gas-cylinders, the trench filled with gas, the gas-company stampededâ€.

    The total British gas casualties between 25 and 27 September were 2,632, of whom seven died. The 2nd Division astride the Canal and the 15th Division just opposite Loos suffered most, 1,052 and 464 respectively The gas casualty rate was 4.4 per cent of all killed and wounded at Loos, a relatively high proportion by comparison with later gas attacks.

    I don’t think any blame can be put on the forecast. At best the weather was borderline for a gas attack (not to forget in some areas it was quite successful) with not enough of a westerly component to the wind or indeed enough strength. Plus you had the length of the front which meant variations in conditions, that although maybe slight, made a vital difference.

    One thing remains a puzzle. In another memoir Captain Gold comments on the brilliant use, by Capt. Bisham and Capt. Lamb, of katabatic winds, which provoked the enemy’s comment that the British used gas when the meteorological conditions didn’t justify it. This comment is obviously correct given the source but given the battlefield at Loos was extremely flat I’m puzzled as to how this was achieved. Any suggestions gratefully received.

    References.

    Weather in War, Army Journal, October 1943. Courtesy National Army Museum.

    The Meteorological Office and the First World War, Met. Mag, 1943.

    The Poisonous Cloud, L.F. Haber.Clarendon Press, Oxford.

    Goodbye to All That, Robert Graves, Penguin Classics.

    Map of the Battlefield, courtesy The Battlefields of The First World War, Peter Barton

    Infrantry advancing through the gas

    Map of battlefield

    Loos today

  10. I thought so too. Might be interesting to compare the state of other drivers back then with the current situation - what was the Sun up to, ENSO, ice levels etc. Of course, it may yield sod all of interest and reveal nothing but I'm sure they all have more relevance than an oil spill.

    Anyone with time to spare to dig the info up?

    I believe there was a quiet (in intensity) La Nina in 1907 following a fairly long Nino) before the decline in both the frequency and intensity of warm events from 1925 until 1958.

  11. It helps traps out-going heat in the stratosphere causing it to warm - which can help disrupt the polar vortex by warming the stratosphere in high latitude regions (assuming there is some in those regions).

    I thought it was the other way around. Ozone traps shortwave radiation (UV at certain wavelengths) which causes the warming of the stratosphere. One of the problems in the arctic stratosphere in recent years is that it has become colder (GW) allowing the formation of PSCs which act as a catalyst for the destruction of ozone. I just wondered whether it was about greater transport of ozone into the arctic stratosphere. I vaguely see your point about the vortex but the role of ozone still illudes me. Not to worry.

  12. I remember GP commenting on the ozone in the upper atmosphere aiding blocking last winter, this winter with La Nina in play the blocking may be harder to come by, but what do people make of the current ozone situation - I'm certainly no expert on this - so would be really interested to hear some thoughts from those that have look into this in more depth.

    The link below shows the ozone situation at the moment - which on the face of it may be looks promising for Scandinavian blocking?

    http://exp-studies.t...i-bin/dailyMaps

    http://exp-studies.t...sis=de&region=n

    I'm no doubt being very thick here but could you go into a little more detail as to how ozone aids blocking. Ta.

  13. The observation that a warmer world will probably mean amplified warming in the Arctic and long-term melting of the ice, and that we'd need the Earth to cool to below 20th century temperature levels to enable Arctic sea ice to have any chance of returning to 20th century levels, is nothing new, and doesn't require the existence of any tipping points.

    That is true but isn't the tipping point the point in time when the process you describe actually accelerates due to increasing positive feedbacks? In black and white terms, when any process is irreversible.

  14. Hi Nick,

    Do you have an albedo figure for cloud? One of the "cooling" drivers is supposed to be an increase in cloud cover due to increased cloud formation due to extra ionisation from Neutrons delivered by Galactic Cosmic rays.

    If for simplistics sake we take the incoming extraterrestrial short-wave radiation to be 100 the figures break down thus. Forgetting the absorbtion fsctors, twenty units are reflected back to space from clouds, which cover about 62% of the earths surface, on average. A further 8 units reflected from the surface and 3 units are returned by atmospheric scattering. The planetary albedo is 31%.

    The decrease in the albedo in the Arctic I feel has been ably demonstrated by GW and many scientific studies and I feel that a tipping point has been past. Certainly one can't be definitive about this and I wonder whether possible increased cloud cover may mitigate against significant changes in the planetary albedo. On the other hand signicant changes in circulation patterns in the arctic way well outweigh those considerations.

  15. Another time when lightning triggered a disaster in a coal mine. This time in Canada in a mine near Sparwood & Elkford in 1916.

    Twelve men were all killed in series of explosions which occurred shortly after the start of the night shift on August 8, 1916. At the time there was a bad lightning storm taking place. It is thought that the lightning struck near the portal and travelled into the mine either on the signal wire (bells used to communicate in the mine), the cable used to pull coal cars, or along the track itself. The main entry way was constructed of 18 to 24 inch diameter timbers which were smashed and strewn all about in front of the portal.

  16. I was struggling with 'Tipping point' too?

    No , 'Tipping Points' need to be better defined (I believe) if introduced into conversation as they can mean many things to many folk?

    .

    Seems a reasonable definition from Clive Hamilton, Requiem for a Species. ISBN 978-1-84971-081-7

    Since 2005 a number of scientific papers have described the likelihood of the climate system passing significant 'tipping points' beyond which the warming process is reinforced by positive feedback mechanisms-small peturbations that cause large changes.This new understanding has upset the comforting idea of a 'dose-response' relationship between the amount of greenhouse gases we put into the atmosphere and the amount of global warming that follows. That idea has allowed us to believe that, although we may be slow to respond, once we decide to act we will be able to rescue the situation. In truth, it is likely that in the next decade or so, beginning with the melting of the Arctic's summer sea-ice, the Earth's climate will shift onto a new trajectory driven by 'natural processes that will take millenniums to work themselves out.

    I have an idea that this might be near the mark.

  17. New space research published this week (Thursday 21 October) in the journal Nature, has settled decades of scientific debate. Researchers from the University of California (UCLA) and British Antarctic Survey (BAS) have found the final link between electrons trapped in space and the glow of light from the upper atmosphere known as the diffuse aurora. The research will help us understand ‘space weather’, with benefits for the satellite, power grid and aviation industries, and how space storms affect the Earth’s atmosphere from the top down.

    http://www.antarctic...ase.php?id=1312

    To save people the bother if they want to read the full paper.

    ftp://ftp.nerc-bas.ac.uk/pub/photo/Nature-diffuse-aurora/documents/PDF%20Nature%20paper.pdf

  18. Interesting. Perhaps the mechanism that caused the Wilkins Ice Shelf collapse.

    Elephant seals recruited as field researchers have uncovered new evidence of what may have caused the dramatic collapse of an Antarctic ice shelf two years ago.

    Wearing tracking tags, the deep-diving mammals mapped the seabed near the Wilkins Ice Shelf, which is the size of Jamaica but recently began to disintegrate. They discovered channels that deflect warm water towards the ice.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/environment/article2775724.ece

×
×
  • Create New...