knocker

Very amusing. Mind I did open a couple of eyes on a US web site when I posted "The most destructive project on earth". Actually most had never heard of it.. The consumer society, the great driver. http://www.borealbir...cc-tarsands.pdf

It's in the right area but my knowledge is insufficient to predict what affect rising SSTs will have on ocean circulation in the area and thus the monsoon.. I would hazard a guess not much at this stage. I would think it more likely that Nino and the position of the sub tropical jet are of greater importance and how, if indeed it is, that AGW is affecting both. It would certainly appear that Nino events are getting stronger according to new research. The strengthening has coincided with a westward shift of the area where maximum ocean warming takes place. Now this, IMHO, could be of greater significance. The $64, 000 question is, as always, is AGW causing this or is it part of a natural cycle. For what it's worth, which isn't much, I would plump for the former because I just don't believe we can spew billions of tons of carbon, produced in a past natural cycle, into the atmosphere without casing a major disruption to the ocean-atmospheric interactions. Flood or drought, who knows. In the late 19th century it was drought but we hadn't added our six pennyworth then. Well not much anyway. Having recently read Requiem for a Species by Clive Hamilton I agee with him and suspect we are long past the point of no return anyway.

Indonesia Rising sea surface temperaturs in the Andaman Sea appear to have triggered one of the most rapid and severe coral-mortality rates ever recorded off the norther tip of Sumatra. An international team of scientists found that 80 per cent of some species have died between an initial assessment in May and further monitoring in August, with some colonies expected to succumb over the next few months.

Is there any reason why the edit facility on your own posts has time limit on it? By this I mean that you cannot return to a post made, say yesterday, and edit it as the facility is no longer there.

Pity because you missed this nugget. ""It doesn't give comfort to the climate skeptics at all," said Haigh. "It may suggest that we don't know that much about the sun. The climate models would still be producing much the same results with or without these solar effects."

I think AGW can counter balance that. A century-long decline in tiny algae called phytoplankton could disrupt the global ocean food chain, including the human consumption of fish, according to a study released Wednesday. http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/declining-algae-threatens-ocean-food-chain-study-2039287.html

A change in the color of ocean waters could have a drastic effect on the prevalence of hurricanes, new research indicates. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/08/100813121916.htm

If we take about 1550 as the beginning of the Little Ice Age it was after this that the Europeans experienced the coldest decades since the last Great Ice Age some 10,0000 years earlier. The Little Ice Age was a period of extremes, with both very cold and mild winters. The first severe winter of the Little Ice Age, the coldest for 50 years was that of 1564-1565. A snippet from the Nieuwe Chonijcke van Brabant published in Antwerp. “In this year of 64 it froze so severely for ten weeks on end that people in Antwerp crossed the Scheldt on foot and horseback from Boxing Day until Twelth Night, and because of the great novelty, stalls and tents were erected on the ice, where food and drink and other wares were sold.†Testimony to this bitter winter is a painting by Cornelius Jacobsz van Culemborch which comes from the Orphans’ Chamber in Delft Town Hall. It is entitled Iceberg by Delfshaven on 2 January 1565. The inscription reads: In the year 1565, on the afternoon of January the 2nd, an ice mountain came in on the flood at Delfshaven pier in little more than a quarter of an hour, and measured 23 roods high and 17 long. Reference: Holland Frozen in Time; The Dutch Winter Landscape in the Golden Age. Eat your heart out all lovers of ice and snow.

Blimey John that takes me back a bit. I knew Nornan quite well in the early sixties when we were on weather ships together. He left and joined the Australian Met. Office in high dudgeon I believe, if my memory serves correctly, because the office wouldn't accept his Scottish Highers for a forecasting course. Well that was Norman's story and perhaps they did him a good turn because he did pretty well after that.

I have an idea that they did a rerun on the more sophisticated models not that many years ago and it came out much nearer the actualitie. Also I believe the French model at the time wasn't actually far out. Cetainly the 1990 storm was much worse in the west country. Oops I've just realised JH has gone into this in much greater detail. Sorry John.

It wasn't as bad in Cornwall as the 1990 storm although it was bad enough. I was working that night and have vivid memories of doing a back somersault (with tuck) attempting to launch the very unwieldy Met. Office sonde without giving it a knock. It had a tendency to pack up if you breathed too heavily on it let alone bouncing it into a hedge.

At the beginning of the Eighty Years' War against the rule of the Spanish Hapsburgs ice proved the salvation of the Dutch. During the siege of Haarlem in the winter of 1572-3 the city was provisioned almost uninterruptedly for weeks on end using sleighs that crossed the frozen Haarlemmermeer from Sassenheim, where the Prince of Orange was encamped. The death knell sounded for Haarlem when the ice finally melted after 17 weeks, and on 13th July 1573 it finally fell to the Spanish.

The police search for a gang of vandals has been call off when it was discovered that squirrels were the culprits. It is understood that the Wiltshire police are setting up a special squirrel unit and have warned the public not to approach as they may be dangerous. http://www.google.co...71287161955227A

There was one event that overshadowed all others and will forever be remembered in the tiny fishing village of Mousehole. It was the loss of the Penlee lifeboat, the Solomon Browne, with all eight of the crew whilst attempting to rescue eight people from the stricken coaster the Union Star in hurricane force winds and mountainous seas. I won't add anything here as the events deserve more detailed analysis and I need to look at the official report from the enquiry so I'll hopefully post it as a separate thread shortly. Just to say as a story of skill and bravery it surely cannot be surpassed although of course the history of the RNLI is full of these.

You are quite right jonboy, I've got it the wrong way round. Thanks for pointing that out.

Don't know about the town centre but it was Shrewsbury.

Mind, hail about 4cm in diameter was reported at Crewkerne on the 14th. I know, Somerset not Devon.

As far as I'm aware (and I'm certainly no expert) they should have gone last month on the short hop to Africa.Just had a quick loook on the web and it appears a few stragglers may hang around into October.

Working from home is all very well in the sense that you can probably afford the heating bills but it seems four million of the poorest pensioners look set to lose two thirds of their cold weather payments. The government has set the emergency weekly payments for pensioners at £8.50 a week for this winter rather than the £25 they received in the past two years. I imagine many wouldn't survive that severe cold.

I'm afraid there is no hope for you jethro. And a young farmer to boot.

I am also not going to get embroiled in this thread but just to say I agree completely with your post. Bit concerned that you are a long term Lewis Hamilton fan though.

Surely no one in their right mind would want a repeat of this December. Fortunately I missed most of it whilst enjoying the balmy climate of the N. Atlantic. Anyone any memories of this or even comparable Decembers? I expect this has been posted before, if so, apologies for the repetition. Temperature Generally. this was the coldest December since 1874 or 1878 in the north and since 1890 in the south, mean temperatures being 5 °C or more below average at some places in Scotland and central England. But in the Channel Islands, Cornwall and parts of Devon. where mean temperatures were less than 2 °C below normal. December 1976 was colder while that of 1950 was also colder than this at most places in the extreme south and west of the United Kingdom. After a brief mild spell early in the month. the temperature reaching 15.0â€C at Dyce, Aberdeen early on the 3rd. all districts became very cold from the north by the 8th. Although the extreme south and west had near-normal temperatures at times it was the 28th before milder weather extended northwards to all parts. Frost was very severe and continuous at times, especially around mid-month over inland central and northern areas. Temperatures of below -20 °c occurred in some low-lying parts of the western Midlands and North Wales during the night of the 12/13th; at Shawbury (Shropshire) following a minimum of -22.6 C and a maximum of -12.1 C on the 12th, it fell to -25.2 °c. a record low for England and Wales in any month. but one which was to stand for one month only. Snow This was the snowiest December generally since 1878 although 1950, in the extreme south and west and 1976, in parts of the north, were snowier. Snowfall was quite heavy with drifting at times, causing considerable disruption to road. rail and air transport particularly on the 8th and 11th in the south, the 13th and 14th over central areas, having turned to rain in the south. and on the 20th and 21st over eastern England and high ground in the north of Britain. Accumulations of snow exceeded 20 cm. particularly in many central and hilly northern areas, and included 26 cm at Heathrow Airport, London on the 11th, 31 cm at Shrewsbury on the 14th, 91 cm in the Pennines above Hawes (North Yorkshire) on the 14th, 25cm at Poolewe (Highland Region) on the 18th and 33 cm at Lincoln on the 22nd. As a consequence hospitals were kept busy with hundreds of broken limbs, many sporting fixtures were cancelled or postponed while severe losses to wildlife were reported to include rare species such as the Dartford Warbler. But in the extreme south and south-west there was little snow and a general thaw spread northwards late in the month.

Perhaps we shouldn’t rush to snap judgments. (i know, showing my naivity here) The Atlantic Heat Conveyor (within which the Gulf Stream plays a role) helps to maintain relatively mild temperatures in north-west Europe. Some observations suggest that the Atlantic Heat Conveyor has reduced in strength by up to 30% since the early 1990s. More data are needed to distinguish this trend from natural variability, which has recently been shown to be large on a day-to-day basis.It is very likely that the Atlantic Heat Conveyor will slow during this century, but not sufficiently to completely offset warming across the UK.There is considered to be less than a 10% chance of a collapse of the Atlantic Heat Conveyor this century.You can download the review. http://www.mccip.org...t-conveyor.aspx

I agree that point one is an interesting area that brings in the carbon cycle and ocean and atmospheric regulation. A couple of quick observations on the subject. The absorption of CO2 by the oceans is greatest where the water is rich in organic matter or where it is cold. Thus the oceans are capable of regulating atmospheric CO2, of changing the greenhouse effect, and of contributing to climate change. The most important aspect of the carbon cycle linking atmosphere and ocean is the difference between the partial pressure of CO2 in the lower atmosphere and that in the upper oceanic layer. This results in atmospheric CO2 being dissolved in the oceans and in some of this being subsequently converted into particulate carbon, mainly through the agency of plankton, ultimately sinking to form carbon-rich deposits in the deep ocean as part of a cycle lasting hundreds of years. Thus two of the major effects of ocean surface warming would be to increase its CO2 equilibrium partial pressure and to decrease the abundance of plankton. Both of these effects would tend to decrease the oceanic uptake of CO2 and therefore to increase its atmospheric concentration, thereby producing a positive feedback (i.e. enhancing) effect on global warming. However, the operation of the atmosphere-ocean system is sufficiently complex that, for example, global warming may so increase oceanic convective mixing that the resulting imports of cooler water and plankton into the surface layers might exert a brake (i.e. negative feedback) on the system warming. The point you were making unless I've picked you up incorrectly. Regarding increased cloud cover a couple of observations from my somewhat limited reading on the subject. It seems to depend on the level of the increased cloud cover. Increased low cloud will give a positive feedback regarding AGW and increases in medium and high cloud the reverse. And then you have the cosmic ray influence on which subject there seems to be complete disagreement. That being the case, what chance have the lower orders (good old Jane) such as myself got of getting to grips with it?

Depends whether you are talking regionally or globally. If the former we can bump this up to the GS thread.