knocker

I must admit when one thinks of the amount of work behind all this it's quite mind boggling. A Walker Formula Southern Oscillation Index (December-February) = [samoa pressure] + [North-east Australia rainfall (Derby and Halls Creek in Western Australia, 7 stations in north Australia, 20 throughout Queensland)] + 0.7 [Charleston pressure] + 0.7 [New Zealand temperature (Wellington, Dunedin)] + 0.7 [Java rainfall] + 0.7 [Hawaii rainfall (12 stations)] + 0.7 [southAfrica rainfall (15 stations, Johannesburg the most northern)] -[Darwin pressure] + [Manila pressure] -[batavia pressure] -[south-west Canada temperature (Calgary, Edmonton, Prince Albert, Qu'Appelle, Winnipeg)] -[samoa temperature] -0.7 [brisbane temperature] -0.7 [Mauritius temperature] -0.7 [south American rainfall (Rio de Janeiro and 2 stations south of it in Brazil; 3 in Paraguay, Montevideo; 15 in Argentina, of which Bahia Blanca is the southernmost)] Source. Late Victorian Holocausts-El Nino and the Making of Third World by Mike Davis

00 UTC Continuous heavy rain. 23,1mm 18-00 Wind SW 6kts Temp14.7C Pressure 1011mb falling Rain has now ceased

Having heard the piece this morning my guess is very little. If you are interested in hearing the report from R4 Today prog. you can catch it here. There is even a Churchill quote! http://news.bbc.co.u...000/9021947.stm

Since teleconnections seem to be occupying minds at the moment I thought a very brief sojourn into history may be of interest. Or perhaps not. It is of course well known that monsoons develop most dramatically in India and Southeast Asia, where intense heating of the land in summer causes low pressure, bringing warm, moist air from tropical oceans across the heated continents. In turn, the air rises due to mountain barriers and further heating giving widespread torrential rain. During the latter part of the 19th century the monsoon didn’t occur on a few occasions causing widespread drought and bringing a disastrous famine to millions of people. The question was, why did the monsoon fail? Without going into detail great minds were brought to bear on the subject and theories were plentiful such as snow amounts on The Himalayas (not completely wrong as it happens) but the idea that found most support was our old friend sun spot activity. This held sway for some time until it was pointed out that the monsoon failed at times when there wasn’t any activity. Start again. Enter Sir Gilbert Walker, a mathematician and physicist. To cut a long story short he basically crunched a lot of numbers. He mobilized pharaonic levies of Indian clerks to manually process worldwide pressure and rainfall data through his esoteric regression equations. The widespread drought and agricultural crisis of 1918 gave renewed urgency to these calculations. This was little more than a huge scientific fishing expedition: No conceptual framework supported the patterns he found; his methods were strictly empirical .Although Walker speculated, as had Hildebrandsson earlier, that polar circulation might be a driving force of global pressure fluctuations, it was little more than a hunch. Nonetheless Walker’s dogged super-empiricism eventually produced a rich harvest. After twenty years of patiently crunching numbers and expanding his data sets, the (after 1924, retired) director-general of observatories in India was able to present overwhelming evidence (following Hildebrandsson’s pioneering work) for three coherent systems of intercontinental atmospheric oscillation: In 1924, Walker first used and defined the term Southern Oscillation (SO) as a “seesaw†in atmospheric pressure and rainfall at stations across the Indo-Pacific region, where increased (decreased) pressure in locations surrounding the Indian region (Cairo, north-west India, Darwin, Mauritius, south-eastern Australia and the Cape Colony) tended to be matched by decreased (increased) pressure over the Pacific region (San Francisco, Tokyo, Honolulu, Samoa and South America) and decreased (increased) rainfall over India and Java (including Australia and Abyssinia). The two other “oscillations†involved out-of-phase atmospheric pressure between the regions of the Azores and Iceland, named the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and between Alaska and the Hawaiian Islands, termed the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO): This was a fundamental breakthrough: the global drought pattern first convincingly identified by Blanford in 1877-80 was now unequivocally related to the action of the great barometric see-saw over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It soon became apparent that the Southern Oscillation provided the most potential in terms of long-range forecasting [of the three oscillations], in that it displayed marked interannual variability in its leadand lag correlations with climatic conditions in each season over a large part of the earth’s surface. Fast forward. Forty years later the great Meteorologist Jacob Bjerknes argued in his famous 1969 paper that the SO resulted from a “chain-reaction†exchange of energy between the ocean and atmosphere. This isn’t the place to detail the whole theory (even if I knew it which I don’t) but it did leave unsolved a key dynamic element of the problem. What forces or instigates the nonlinear transition from one state to another? The key to the problem was the development of dynamic oceanography.and it was left to Klaus Wyrtki at the University of Hawai’i in the mid-1970s to rebuild Bjerknes’s theory upon a more sophisticated foundation of ocean physics. A successful predictive model was produced by Cane and Zebiak in 1986.

0800 UTC 7/8 Sc and St Wind S 11mph Vis 4km pressure 1015mb falling Min. temps UK and Ireland "]http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/mintemp.png

Met. Office probability. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/specialist/seasonal/probability/glob_seas_prob.html

The Greenland and West Antarctic ice caps are melting at half the speed previously predicted. This finding has emerged from research by a joint US/Dutch team from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, TU Delft and SRON. The scientists have published their findings in the September issue of Nature Geoscience. http://www.sron.nl/i...mid=&Itemid=754 Forgot about glacial isostatic adjustment!

Today's max temps. UK and Ireland. http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/maxtemp.png

I don't know if anyone has already posted this link and it's been discussed. If so apologies. First published in Nature to which I don't subscribe. Melting sea ice has been shown to be a major cause of warming in the Arctic according to a University of Melbourne, Australia study. Findings published in Nature reveal the rapid melting of sea ice has dramatically increased the levels of warming in the region in the last two decades. http://www.scienceda...00428142324.htm

Another fine morning. Mainly broken Ac and Ci. Temp 14C Wind SSE 6mph Vis 4k Pressure 1016 falling

I think it distinctly possible that fresh water for millions will cause more trouble than oil if we head towards worse case scenarios. Mind, it's a major problem at the moment.

There is of course an important political dimension to this debate. Who owns the Arctic? It is a question that could provoke a new Cold War as global warming opens up the possibility of exploiting vast new energy reserves.Vladimir Putin opens an international conference on the future of the Arctic on Wednesday, the latest sign of the Kremlin's determination to establish itself as the dominant northern power. The two-day meeting in Moscow is the first big international project of the Russian Geographical Society (RGS) since Mr Putin, the Prime Minister, installed himself as head of the organisation's board of trustees last year. His close ally, Sergei Shoigu, the Emergency Situations Minister, became president of the RGS at the same time. The conference, entitled The Arctic: Territory of Dialogue, will gather members of the intergovernmental Arctic Council - comprising Russia, the United States, Canada, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Iceland and Sweden - as well as scores of scientists and international polar experts to discuss the region's future. http://www.theaustra...o-1225926701860

The largest lead mine in Cornwall was East Wheal Rose, situated near Newlyn East. On the 9th July 1846 disaster struck when a violent thunderstorm caused millions of gallons of water to pour into the mine. Thirty nine miners lost their lives and it was the worst mining disaster in Cornish mining history. An account from the West Briton !7th July, 1846 TERRIBLE DISASTER AT EAST WHEAL ROSE AND NORTH WHEAL ROSE MINES - THIRTY-NINE LIVES LOST. - On Thursday, the 9th instant, a most disastrous occurrence took place at East Wheal Rose and North Wheal Rose lead mines, in the parish of Newlyn, which resulted in a lamentable loss of human life, and the destruction of much property. The following account, derived from personal inquiries on the spot, may be regarded by our readers as affording correct information respecting this sad calamity. To those who are unacquainted with the locality, it may be desirable to state that East Wheal Rose mine is situated in a capacious vale, or kind of basin, at the bottom of several hills, which arise around it somewhat in the form of an amphitheatre. These hills are principally killas, and the mine workings run from north to south, in what is provincially termed flucan, and in some places through the blue clay slate formation. Towards the northern part of the sett the valley narrows into a ravine, through which a stream, after running by the workings, is continued to the river Gannel, and thence to the sea at Crantock. The distance from the sea is five or six miles, and the fall of water supposed to be about fifty feet. North Wheal Rose is immediately adjoining the sett of East Wheal Rose. Between twelve and one o'clock on the day we have named, immense masses of black clouds overhung all the hills surrounding East Wheal Rose, and extended as far as the eye could reach in the horizon. A terrible thunderstorm commenced; the lightning was very vivid; the rolling of the thunder was at times awfully loud; and about one o'clock the rain poured down in such a lashing torrent as eye-witnesses state they never before saw in England. Persons who had been in South America state that they have known such torrents in those regions, but they never before saw such masses of water falling from the clouds in Europe. The consequence was that in an incredibly short space of time large streams of water poured down the hills surrounding East Wheal Rose, with impetuous force, and, uniting at the bottom, formed almost "a perfect sea of water," which rushed on from south to north in the direction of the narrow ravine we have mentioned, and directly over the area of the sett. Captain MIDDLETON (the manager of East Wheal Rose) says that about the time of the storm he was in the sawhouse, giving directions to have some timber cut for the mine. While he was there it began to rain, and in less than five minutes the water was descending over the hills in torrents. In a few minutes he sent a man for fifty surface men to watch the leats, to get them prepared, and see that all was right. He then sent a man to the counting house for his underground clothes; he changed his clothes and by the time he came out, the water was going down through the mine in a perfect sea, being one immense sheet of water. He had then three hundred men endeavouring to save the timbers, barrows, and other materials, as well as engaged in raising the shafts for the purpose of keeping the water from descending. By that time also their machines were fully employed in drawing men to the surface from Stephens's, Carbis's, Gower's, Davey's and Oxnam's shafts, which last has entirely run together. The water carried large pieces of timber and other materials out of the sett as far as Metha bridge. On the west of the mine a strong stone bridge had been built by the adventurers about two years since, one-half of which was carried away by the rushing flood of water. We have been informed by several who witnessed it, that the water came down upon the sett in such broad and deep waves that all efforts to keep it from some of the shafts were at length unavailing. The water, as it rushed towards the ravine, also deepened; and in this part, at Oxnam's shaft, it is said to have first entered the mine, although at Magor's shaft, and at other places, it also descended. The consequence was that the descent of water occasioned a rush of air throughout the mine, which blew out the candles, and left the poor miners in total darkness. Being much alarmed, those who were in favourable levels immediately proceeded to grass, where they assisted the men who were already engaged on the surface in attempting to divert the water, or to dam it out from descending the shafts and footways. Others of the miners, however, who were working in deeper levels, or who in ascending the shafts met with the water pouring down upon them, escaped with their lives with the greatest difficulty. As the kibbles descended in Gower's shaft the drowning men caught hold of them, and were drawn up in clusters, as many as could hold on. The men also frequently caught hold of the chains, and were drawn up; one man, it is stated, coming up with merely a finger or two hitched in the chain. At one time six men were drawn up holding on by the kibble; and when it again descended to the fifty fathom level, a man named HARRIS and two boys were washed out. Several men hanging by the kibbles are said to have been so exhausted that they loosened their hold, and fell down the shafts. In Michell's whim shaft some of the miners are stated to have climbed the open shaft by holding on to the casing, the water rising close to their heels as they ascended. Others saved themselves by climbing fathoms against the force of the water, which was streaming down upon them; and a number came up the manhole of Michell's shaft, from which the water was diverted. Between the fifty and forty fathom levels one man said he had climbed fifteen fathoms by the pumps and rods in Michell's engine shaft, upon hearing which the captain stopped the engine, fearing he should kill other men who might be climbing up; and the engine was not again put to work until it was ascertained that no more were coming up the rods. Some of those who have escaped assert that many more might have been saved, even from the lower levels, had they exerted themselves; but the sudden consciousness of danger, when the water first poured down, and their lights were put out, seemed completely to paralyze their efforts. We saw one man who escaped from the eighty fathom level with only a few bruises. It being fortunately relief time, there were not so many under ground as are usually at work, nor can the number who were below be correctly ascertained. It is supposed there were about two hundred, and of these the greater number escaped with their lives, though many of them were severely injured by the stones and stuff falling upon them. The wounded were attended to by Mr. VIGURS, of Newlyn, the surgeon of the mine. The distressing fact was, however, made known on the Thursday evening, that forty-two poor fellows were missing, being still in the workings of the mine. Of these four were found alive in some part of the fifty fathom level on the Friday morning, their names being WILLIAM ELLERY, THOMAS PHILLIPS, STEPHEN HARVEY, and EDWARD HOLMAN. Three of them were not much bruised when picked up, but the fourth, at the time of our inquiry, was confined to their bed.

Regarding the Boscastle event the RMetS brought out a special edition of Weather that goes into great detail of the whole event. August 2005, Vol, 60, No.8. It includes meteorological analysis of the conditions leading to flooding on the 16th August 2004. This Modis satellite image clearly shows the line of storms originating near Wadrbridge at the head of the Camel estuary. Credit "NERC Satellite Receiving Station, Dundee University, Scotland" http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/

Nice morning. Broken cloud mainly Ac and Ci. Temp 13C Wind SSW 5MPH Vis 15Km Pressure 1013Mb rising.

I quite agree with your last statement John. I take it Hemsby became Watnall. I'm afraid my memory is fading fast.

The first outstanding impact of meteorology on military operations in the war arose from the bombing of east coast towns by Zeppelins in the spring of 1915. In those days there was no observation of upper winds in, or above, a cloud layer, and very little on other occasions. The only effective guide to the upper wind was the geostrophic wind (gradient wind as it was then called). It was obvious from the synoptic charts, even reduced as they were, that the Zeppelins had been carried north and east of their target, London, by a SW geostrophic wind of which they had no knowledge prior to, or during, their passage across the North Sea. When the Director of the Met. Office, Dr. Shaw, brought this to the attention of the appropriate authorities, they began to think more seriously of meteorology as a factor in war. But frequent Zeppelin raids continued over Britain and France, generally they flew too high for the British planes but not always, and as the war progressed by 1916 the planes were armed with explosives and incendiary bullets and this mixture proved deadly to the airships. To get around this problem a third generation of airships, the “height climbers†were built and capable of reaching an altitude of 20, 000 feet. Using eleven of these new Zeppelins the Germans carried out a carefully planned raid against the industrial cities of northern England on October 19th, 1917. It proved to be a disaster. One Zeppelin dropped its bombs over London, four were blown off course by a sixty-mile-an- hour gale and ended up over German occupied France, One was shot down by French anti-aircraft fire at 19, 000 ft, one crash landed, one fell intact into French hands and one disappeared without trace over the Mediterranean. Failure to understand meteorological conditions is the key to this disaster. They failed to allow for the effect of a warm air mass to the west in turning a weak southerly wind at low levels into a strong northerly wind at very great heights. This led E. Gold, D.S.O., F.R.S., who was appointed meteorologist on the staff of the Field Service for France at the beginning of the war, to originate the term “thermal windâ€. I got there in the end.

Latest from NOP if of interest. 180900Z POSITION NEAR 23.8N 124.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RADAR LOOP FROM ISHIGAKIJIMA, JAPAN DEPICT A 10 NM EYE WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A CONCENTRIC EYE WALL. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON AN DEFINED EYE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND ON THE JAPAN RADAR LOOP. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD, PGTW, AND KNES OF 90 TO 102 KNOTS AS WELL AS AN 180249Z PGUA VORTEX MESSAGE INDICATING SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATES OF 105 KNOTS. WIND RADII ARE BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON DOTSTAR DROPSONDE DATA AND 18/07Z OBSERVATIONS FROM ISHIGAKIJIMA (75 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TY 12W) INDICATING 44 KNOT WINDS FROM THE NORTH GUSTING TO 61 KNOTS AND A PRESSURE OF 987 MB. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ENHANCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AS THE OUTFLOW ENHANCING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS ALSO REVEALS INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TY 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL TAIWAN. AFTER TAU 36 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN OVER EASTERN CHINA AND DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK INLAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.

I very much doubt that John but it certainly is me. You can have some fun with it though.

I generated it on my PC using the Digital Atmosphere program. A good piece of weather software if you can get to grips with all the functions which I haven't yet ( probably never will) although I've had it a few years. The midday sounding supported the rather brief obs. I made.

Just to add to that the Cu only developed as far as the stable layer becoming in parts Sc forming from Cu. Pretty much as expected I would imagine.

As a matter of interest I don't know whether anyone has posted this site regarding 62-63. It contains a fair amount of info. http://www.mtullett.plus.com/1962-63/

I received an error message uploading a photo to the gallery so repeated the exercise. Then found that both images are there as can be seen. In my wisdom I cannot find the means of deleting one. Some advice would be appreciated. Also, while I'm posting about this should I have a delete button on my own posts. Can't seem to find one.