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Everything posted by knocker
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Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
knocker replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Which is precisely how the models have evolved since the second world war. The study of teleconnections, including troposphere/stratosphere interactions, is still pretty much in it's infancy but with a fair bit of it being incorporated in the models as they continue to develop. But at the end of the day, as far as I'm aware, this is mainly a thread for interpreting the model output, which I suspect is not helped by the information overload now available -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
knocker replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I often thank my lucky stars that I was kicked out of this forum -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
knocker replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
But getting back to the original point if that did happen it would not contradict the anomaly, merely be further developments with in the umbrella of the upper trough -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
knocker replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
In that case it would also contradict it's own anomaly output. If the trough stars to lift out right at the end of the run it will not be indicated on ther broader scale anomaly. Doesn't mean they are wrong -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
knocker replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Time for a little clarity on this I feel https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work/
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I think 'retrogression' another one for the swear filter
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What's the use of 500mb-1000mb thickness when...
knocker replied to Rain All Night's question in Weather and Meteorology Q&A
https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/Miscellaneous/Heights_Thicknesses/thickness_temperature.htm#GEOPOTENTIAL -
What is worse, imho, are comments along the lines that the ecm does not handle NH patterns being indicated at the moment very well, as a precusor to binning the latest run. Now unless the posters can supply links to scientific evidence supporting the statement, or have done there own in depth research, then comments like this are wrong and will totally mislead punters who are relatively inexperienced in getting to grips with the output. Particularly in the current situation which, to say the least, is quite complex. Put simply they should not be ,made
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The ecm is an absolute stonker this evening
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Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
knocker replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I think there is an overwhelming case for 'shortwave' and 'drama' to be put in the swear filter sine die. -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
knocker replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I now see things are getting completely out of hand in the mod thread with meteorology actually being dragged into the mix. Where will it all end I ask myself? -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
knocker replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Judging from this morning's outputs it is looking more than likely, albeit then slowly improving -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
knocker replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
More to do wiith the accompanying hype and rapidly losing the will to live. -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
knocker replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Over many years a long time and very respected member of this site, who also happens to be a retired senior forecaster, has explained why he has found that the correct use, and I emphasise the word correct, of the anomaly charts is one of the better ways of getting a hang of the medium term outlook, whilst pointing out that not by any stretch of imagination is it full proof. And yet over the years, and it has arisen again recently, people with zilch meteorological training feel free to rubbish this methodology without giving any reasoned explanation. Or if they do it is usually a lot of old pony. I cannot figure out whether it is deliberate or lack of understanding. -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
knocker replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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That is simply not true with 'stormy' being particularly misleading. If I remember correctly the upper flow was generally south westerly/westerly resulting in very much a north south split with Azores high pressure more influential in the south'. Some randomly selected charts Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4809915
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
knocker replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That is simply not true with 'stormy' being particularly misleading. If I remember correctly the upper flow was generally south westerly/westerly resulting in very much a north south split with Azores high pressure more influential in the south'. Some randomly selected charts -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
knocker replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
An objective and reasoned analysis of the model outputs is of course off the table. -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
knocker replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Cracking ecm this evening. Bank. -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
knocker replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
The ten day precipitation for NW Europe this morning https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/medium-rain-acc?base_time=202302180000&projection=opencharts_north_west_europe&valid_time=202302280000 -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
knocker replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
With all the hullabaloo over SSW phasing with the teleconnections and Mars in a retrograde orbit it is perhaps worth remembering that many parts of the country have had very little rainfall of late and this is likely to continue for the next couple of weeks and possible much longer.. Some reservoir levls are quite low now which could mean some tricky problems ahead if we get a dry Spring/summer. -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
knocker replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It remains a complete mystery why so many, quite correctly, say that it is very dangerous to assume the affects in the trop. of a SSW, and then go on to do so, repeatable. Although after further thought perhaps it isn't. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
knocker replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Quite so Pete and over many years the evidence confirms that as a general rule of thumb after five days the model output becomes less reliable. Which is why you rarely see day ten charts posted in here -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
knocker replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
The BFTE should have been put in the swear filter a while ago as the continuing thought of it is getting dangerously close to tipping those of a cold peruasion over the edge..........................they have been teetering for a while.