knocker

Cloud 'head' of developing Eunice south east of the cold air associated with the upper trough

I posted this research article the other day Abstract Sting jets in European windstorms can cause damaging winds and gusts, but the resolution of global ensemble prediction systems is too coarse to represent them. Here we describe the development of a tool applied to outputs from these systems that forecasters can use to identify favourable conditions for sting-jet occurrence several days ahead. Plots generated by this tool have been available to Met Office forecasters since autumn 2019, and we demonstrate its usefulness for storm Brendan from January 2020. Damaging surface winds in some European storms have been attributed to descending mesoscale airstreams termed sting jets. The development of a prototype real-time tool that Met Office forecasters can use to identify favourable conditions for sting jet occurrence in extratropical cyclones is presented. The motivation is to improve national severe weather warnings. We have previously developed a convective-instability-based tool to identify sting-jet precursors for research purposes and applied it to storms in reanalyses and climate models with insufficient spatial resolution to represent sting jets. Here we describe the challenges of applying this research-derived diagnostic to output from an operational forecast system and demonstrate its usefulness for a recent winter storm. Through close collaboration with the researchers and forecasters from the Met Office, the diagnostic has been adapted to work on output from the Met Office's operational global ensemble forecasts as it becomes available. Since autumn 2019, forecasters have been able to view graphical output informing them whether storms impacting the UK and Europe (up to 7 days in the future) have the precursor. The tool has already proven useful in informing guidance for severe weather warnings, including those issued by the Met Office's impact-based National Severe Weather Warning Service that goes out to seven days ahead and is the primary hazardous weather warning service for the public and emergency responders. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.3889

Development of a prototype real-time sting-jet precursor tool for forecasters https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.3889

While the Earth’s surface as a whole has warmed by around 1.2C since the industrial revolution, temperatures are not rising at the same rate in all corners of the world. One difference is the faster pace that land areas are warming compared to the ocean. But perhaps the biggest outlier is the Arctic, which is warming more than two times faster than the global average (pdf). This phenomenon – known as “Arctic amplification” – is causing dramatic changes for Arctic communities and has also been linked to extreme weather events in the mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The cause of this rapid warming is typically identified as the changing “albedo” of the Arctic’s surface – where the loss of snow and sea ice means less incoming sunlight is reflected back out to space. But the reality is a little more complicated than that. In a new paper, published in Frontiers in Earth Science, my co-authors and I unpack the different factors that are contributing to the fast pace of change in the Arctic. https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-does-the-arctic-warm-faster-than-the-rest-of-the-planet?utm_campaign=Carbon Brief Weekly Briefing&utm_content=20220211&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue Weekly

Scientists raise alarm over ‘dangerously fast’ growth in atmospheric methane Methane concentrations in the atmosphere raced past 1,900 parts per billion last year, nearly triple preindustrial levels, according to data released in January by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Scientists says the grim milestone underscores the importance of a pledge made at last year’s COP26 climate summit to curb emissions of methane, a greenhouse gas at least 28 times as potent as CO2. The growth of methane emissions slowed around the turn of the millennium, but began a rapid and mysterious uptick around 2007. The spike has caused many researchers to worry that global warming is creating a feedback mechanism that will cause ever more methane to be released, making it even harder to rein in rising temperatures. “Methane levels are growing dangerously fast,” says Euan Nisbet, an Earth scientist at Royal Holloway, University of London, in Egham, UK. The emissions, which seem to have accelerated in the past few years, are a major threat to the world’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5–2 °C over pre-industrial temperatures, he says. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00312-2

Hopefully....this evening

I don't pretend to be an expert on this but your assumption regarding it verifying is correct but it is probably wrong to say the ecm has gone completely astray, Both the ecm and gfs have been indicating some rapid cyclogenesis around this time frame, generally close to the left exit of a very strong jet around of 190kts and thus the development of deep depressions. But at this range the handling of the rapid deepening and direction is for obvious reasons not precise so a watching brief is always advisable. Twelve hours later the deep low was further north and in fact this is currently the favoured option

A grand winter from the wind, precipitation and temp perspective, just could have done with a tad more sunshine.

There is nothing nearly about it!

I am wondering whether it would be humane to close the main model thread as the cries of pain and despair are quite disturbing.

Dry. Stratus and breezy

Breezy with a fair amount of Stratus around at the moment

Stratus, drizzle, fog, lousy

satellite image from METOP-B overhead at 2022/01/27 10:33 UTC

Stratus, drizzle and breezy

Any gaps in the Sc have filled recently satellite image from METOP-B overhead at 2022/01/26 10:53 UTC

Sc but not total cover this morning

Surprise, surprise, a layer of Sc, no frost and little wind

Gloomy day under a sheet of Sc

Sc sheet rolled in again this afternoon

ENSO Outlook La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific. Climate models suggest the 2021–22 La Niña is near or at its peak, with a return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) likely early in the southern hemisphere autumn. Autumn is the typical time of the year in which ENSO events decay and return to neutral. La Niña increases the chance of above average rainfall across much of northern and eastern Australia during summer. Cooler than usual sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific persist, with warmer than average waters to Australia's north. Cooler sub-surface water remains in the eastern tropical Pacific, supporting the cooler waters at the surface. However, these cooler sub-surface waters are starting to warm. In the atmosphere, patterns remain broadly typical of La Niña, with decreased cloudiness near the Date Line, and trade winds close to average or slightly increased. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has reduced in magnitude over the past fortnight; however, this is likely related to transient tropical weather and not a broader climate signal. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has weakened after being in the central to eastern Pacific over the past fortnight. Some models predict a re-strengthening over the western Pacific in the coming days, which would typically lead to an increase in cloudiness and rainfall over the eastern Maritime Continent including northern Australia and the south-west Pacific. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index has briefly dipped to negative levels. It is forecast to approach positive levels during the remainder of January and into the first week of February. A positive SAM during summer typically brings wetter weather to eastern parts of Australia, but drier than average conditions for western Tasmania. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral. The IOD typically has little influence on global climate from December to April. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

A fair amount of sunshine with broken Sc here at the moment. Quite pleasant satellite image from METOP-B overhead at 2022/01/23 10:16 UTC

Some Ci and St but mainly a clear sky and little wind

The Sc rolled in yesterday evening and is still here, so no frost and little wind

Winter sun on the Truro River at low tide this morning