ECM top, GEM middle, UKMO bottom. You can see the differences. Weakest block on the EC, most northern upper low. Least encouraging ridging (stronger jet profile and more progressive).
The UKMO is better, by far, with an identified block in there- and a strong upper low- only problem is the weaker Russian sector PV (which can be modified in time).
GEM is a complete beaut. Southerly upper low- strong ridge profile- weak jet- strong Russian sector PV bolting up to be released into Scandi.
Interesting differences of upper air profiles- GFS so messed up it doesn't deserve inclusion. It goes against everything- discard it.
Signals for a N/NE'ly to end the month and bring in February increasingly likely...
I'll do these for D5 most evenings (I'll try), to show the importance of the upper air flow.
Tonight, it's-
1. GEM
2. UKMO
3. ECM
and remember... these are charts after this weekend's convective fun... enjoy it all, this could be very good!