Gibby

UKMO continues to show a fairly quiet working week with the odd shower or two in different areas day to day. The SE may see some thundery showers for a while late tomorrow and Wednesday before a ridge takes over Thursday/Friday. By Saturday Low pressure is set to deepen near Northern Scotland bringing rain and strong winds to all later in the weekend. ECM is the same as UKMO in that a quiet week close to a high pressure ridge looks likely before a deep Low pressure over the weekend becomes complex and slow moving early next week. The weather would turn wet over the weekend with heavy rain and strong winds followed by the mix of sunshine and showers to which we've all become accustomed to so much this summer. GFS is still out on its own on developments of Low pressure next weekend. It keeps the centre further north with high pressure holding to the south resulting in several days of strong west winds and damp, drizzly humid conditions for the south. Further North heavier rain would occur as slow moving fronts wave north then south from time to time. Later on in the run pressure builds from the SW pushing the frontal activity further away North to just affect the far North a little longer with a fine, settled and warm end for the whole UK on its run. In Summary the odds are in favour of a deep Low pressure area affecting the UK over the weekend and into next week but GFS is bullish about keeping it a much shallower affair and further North hence drier conditions for the south but windy. As model runs pass we will see which output backs down but my hunch is that GFS will come in line to the Euros as there looks more scope for rapid deepening of the Low on Saturday than GFS is currently showing.

UKMO continues to show a quiet working week with a weak flabby high pressure ridge dominating the weather up to and including Friday. A lot of dry weather through the week with just isolated showers each day with many places staying dry and reasonably warm. Late on Friday and into the weekend deep low pressure moves in off the Atlantic bringing rain and strong winds followed by showers later in the weekend. GFS shows a quiet week too with the proviso that the French Low pressure shown Tuesday/Wednesday stays the European side of the channel. If not some thundery rain could occur in the southeast for a time before dry, warm quiet weather returns. From the weekend on Low pressure from the Atlantic regains control though progged nowhere near as deep as UKMO wwhich marks the beginning of a north south split in the weather for much of the rest of the run with rain most likely in the north with long drier periods further south. Late in FI pressure builds strongly over the UK with fine warm summer weather likely with the incursion of Low pressure near the SE at the very end bringing a risk of thundery rain. ECM also keeps the weekdays quiet with sunny spells and isolated daytime showers before it too like UKMO has deep Low pressure arriving into the NW late Friday/Saturday with a band of rain and strong winds being chased away east by sunshine and blustery showers by late on Saturday. A windy and showery NW flow covers all areas Sunday with further cold disturbances running south from Iceland on its western flank Monday becoming absorbed in the circulation of the parent Low over Scandinavia by Tuesday. Throughout this time there would be cool and wet weather for many either from bands of rain or heavy showers with hail and thunder locally with improvements very slow by day 10 as a weak ridge attempts to move in from the west. GFS tonight is a little on its own as we look towards next weekend. It's take on next weekends Low pressure is to keep it further North and less deep with the resultant unsettled weather more restricted in its coverage. ECM and UKMO look hand in hand tonight with both showing a potent Low for July standards delivering heavy rain and showers to all areas next weekend to no doubt hamper outdoor events then. ECM goes on to maintain very unsettled and cool conditions out to day 10 and beyond.

UKMO looks generally quiet over the next 5 days or so with slack pressure over the UK and no specific weather system in overall control. The result is a fairly settled week with the chance of the odd shower or two to spoil the party in any one particular place around 10-20% daily. It will feel quite warm in the slack flow with 20-25C occurring North to South most days. Late on in Day 6 of the run a more vigorous attack from Low pressure from the NW is shown with freshening SW winds and rain as a result. GFS also shows a quiet week with the odd shower here and there particularly in the south and southeast midweek but a lot of dry, pleasantly warm weather too, especially in any prolonged sunny spells. From Day 6-10 though, a deepening Atlantic Low dives SE over the UK with rain and showers with the Low winding up in the North Sea and Scandinavia with cool showers for all then. In FI the weather is shown to remain changeable with Low pressure close to the east delivering further showers or rain at times, particularly in the east and southeast. ECM follows the route of UKMO with a quiet, warmish week with the odd shower, though as with UKMO many places will miss these and stay dry, bright and warm all the working week. By the weekend though Low pressure takes charge from the NW moving skowly across Scotland to Scandinavia by day 10 with much windier, cooler and unsettled weather for all with rain or showers. In Summary it looks like most places will stay dry this week. There will be exceptions to this rule as all models show at least a risk of isolated showers on all days before all models also show a major attack of Low pressure from the NW over next weekend and beyond.

No summary from me tomorrow. Working away in Lyme Regis tomorrow but hope to come back Sunday to report a large Anticyclone settling over the UK for the next two weeks. Well we can but dream. UKMO tonight shows a ridge of high pressure moving slowly in off the Atlantic on Tuesday following a fairly showery weekend in a slack North or Northwest flow. By midweek weakening Low pressure advances from off the Atlantic with a return of the risk of heavy showers. GFS shows a weak pressure gradient over the UK late this weekend and early next week with occasional showers still scattered about. Then as per UKMO Low pressure moves east from off the Atlantic towards Scotland with rain or showers returning, especially in the North. From then on the weather remains distinctly disturbed as Low pressure spawns west of Britain and moves ESE across the UK with rain or heavy showers for all at times. Winds are shown to turn Northerly late in the run with plenty of daytime heavy showers across the UK and temperatures near normal or a bit below. ECM offers little relief either tonight with the showery theme (albeit less widespread) lasting through the weekend and into the new week though with a lot of dry weather too. Then from midweek Low pressure drifts slowly into the UK from the Atlantic and on SE into Europe. The weather would be a very familiar mix of sunshine and showers some of which would be very heavy with hail and thunder in places. By day 10 things remain very unsettled as Low pressure moving North over NW Europe engages with new Atlantic Low pressure moving SE from Iceland maintaining the showery and relatively cool theme going. All in all not much good news for sunworshippers tonight I'm afraid as the big three seem to be firming up on a continuation of disturbed, changeable weather with heavy rain at times and just short drier breaks, notably early next week. In the 7-14 day range the weather if anything becomes even more unsettled with Low pressure moving in frequently off the Atlantic as per GFS and latterly ECM.

UKMO shows slack pressure over the UK as we run into next week. the showery Low that's around currently moves gently away NE to Scandinavia but pressure rises only slowly and with some instability in the air showers will occur at some point somewhere through each day of the entire run. However, in the south these will be few and far between on Sunday/Monday and consequently with more sunshine and light winds temperatures could reach the low 20's in the south. Further North the risk of showers is greater innitially but even here things should improve albeit temporary. GFS also shows UK based Low pressure moving away NE over the weekend leaving slack pressure with some showers about principally in the North on Monday and the South on Tuesday. Thereafter, new Low pressure slides SE from off the Atlantic with the west becoming cloudier with some rain extending to other areas by Friday with further showery weather returning for the south. As the Low migrates east winds then turn NW with more showers for several days, heaviest and most frequent in the North and East then as High pressure builds east from the Azores far out in FI offering a taste of summer for all. ECM looks better this morning at least for southern areas. The showery weather currently being experienced gets diluted over the weekend as the Low pressure moves away NE with a couple of days of slack North wind and still the risk of a shower over Monday/Tuesday. Thereafter a weakening Atlantic Low trundles east over Northern Britain giving a return to heavy showers for the North and East though the SW would remain drier and brighter. Late in the run more influential Low pressure for all of Britain is shown with rain at times as troughs cross East. In Summary then a few days of half decent weather for the beginning and middle of next week spare the odd shower here and there. Temperatures should respond to more sun with 18-19C in the North and 20-24C maybe in the sheltered south. New low pressure later next week brings a return of showers then for some. GFS offers a taste of summer in far FI but is just as likely to be gone again by the 6z or 12z.

UKMO's 12z shows the showery airflow currently over the UK gradually weakening over the weekend as the parent Low exits NE. However, pressure remains slack and with cool air aloft and sufficient instability this would allow showers to form inland over the UK particularly in the afternoons of Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday the weak ridge over Britain looks tenuous as Low pressure pushes into Ireland later in the day. GFS also shows showers for most areas up until Sunday as low pressure moves away NE on Sunday leaving slack pressure over the UK to start next week with sunny spells and a few showers. Once midweek arrives pressure falls from the NW as a new depression brings its rain and showers SE across Britain. The charts show changeable weather being sustained thereafter with winds gradually veering Northerly as low pressure deepens over Scandinavia while high pressure intensifies strongly over Greenland. This means cool unstable air over the UK with heavy, thundery showers for most areas and very chilly midsummer nights over Scotland. ECM shows the same showery low pressure drifting NE over the weekend towards Scandinavia with showers becoming less frequent for a while. Early next week pressure becomes slack with light winds but an upper trough slipping south re-introduces some heavy showers again on Monday/Tuesday. A ridge then moves east on Wednesday followed by weak low pressure seeping SE towards southern Britain over the next few days with occasional rain or showers for many, especially in the south. The run ends with Low pressure over NW europe with a strong ridge NE from the Atlantic anticyclone giving fine and dry conditions in the north while not especially warm. In Summary the jury is still out on where we go post ridge next week. The arrival of the ridge is painfully slow and allows a showery incursion as an upper trough moves south Monday/Tuesday. Thereafter, changeable weather in one form or another develops later in the week with GFS bringing a showery Northerly late in FI, Meto shows Low pressure knocking on the door by Wednesday and ECM sinks low pressure SE through southern Britain to NW Europe by day 10 keeping things very unsettled in the south while the North sees a welcome break from rain under a strong ridge. Whichever way it goes the synoptics remain elusive for warm, settled, weather anytime soon.

UKMO shows the Low pressure centred over the UK currently drifting away NE very slowly over the weekend with a weak ridge moving east into Britain by Tuesday. So further heavy showers today, tomorrow and for Northern and Eastern regions through the weekend while the South and West see less showers with time and dry weather by Monday extending to all parts by Tuesday with better temperatures and some sunny spells. GFS this morning shows the same path to next Tuesday as the ridge moves east. After that Low pressure quickly follows in from off the Atlantic bringing a return to cooler and changeable conditions with rain or showers at times for all. The remainder of the run maintains the very changeable theme with rain and showers winning out over the shortest of drier spells in the south as weak ridges pass by. ECM shows a different evolution than the other two developing the situation shown last night with high pressure developing to the NW on Monday/Tuesday bringing a dry, quiet period there while Low pressure developed over France is close enough to Southern England to influence the weather here with cool east winds and rain near the south coast on Wednesday/Thursday. In the final days of its run slack low pressure remains over Southern Britain and Europe with a high pressure ridge eventually toppling south over the UK by day 10 hopefully introducing more settled and warmer conditions to the south and more unsettled, windy conditions further North. In Summary the big three continue to show an improvement for early next week. However, ECM is continuing to show a diversion into showing Low pressure near South and Southeast Britain midweek with the risk of rain there while GFS shows any improvement as short lived with the Atlantic coming back in control quickly after midweek. Until the resolution of how the incoming ridge interacts with the exit of the current showery regime is answered I think there will be more scenarios shown in the coming runs but whatever happens it is fairly certain that there is no easy path to any sustained warm and sunny conditions anytime soon.

UKMO looks very similar to this morning with Low pressure edging away NE over the weekend with a ridge of high pressure settling over the UK on Tuesday. Heavy showers from now until Sunday before they lessen from the SW thereon. GFS also takes Low pressure away NE over the latter half of the weekend. Following on will be a ridge of high pressure giving a couple of dry days ahead of Low pressure rolling back in off the Atlantic towards NW Britain. as it moves east over Scotland it fills bringing showers again to many places in the process. Further out into FI pressure remains High to the SW with Low pressure continuing to affect many areas at times with short drier periods under Azores ridges periodically especially in the south. ECM shows the same showery Low pressure moving gently away Northeast late in the weekend. It diverges slightly away from GFS by Tuesday in as much as pressure has fallen over France with the Atlantic ridge over the NW half of the UK giving dry, bright weather there while the far south could see a few more showers in the cool E flow there, aprocess which continues into Wednesday. From day 7-10 the charts show a weak ridge crossing east followed by a return to Atlantic Low pressure moving east into Ireland meaning further rain and showers widely again in rather cool conditions. There is still little sign of anything warm and settled over the coming two weeks. The transformation from the current cool, showery spell and the longevity of the incoming ridge continues to show problems for the models. ECM makes particular hard work of this showing Low pressure over the near continent midweek possibly affecting conditions in southern England before turning things more generally unsettled and showery again later.

UKMO this morning still looks very showery with the current Low pressure not really moving far away until Sunday and Monday continuing the shower risk now for most over the weekend. Early next week a toppling ridge of high pressure reaches the UK on Tuesday with attendant dry and bright weather, at least for a while. GFS shows an area of slack pressure early next week following the current low away by next Monday. After showers from now till then the weather would become drier and more settled for a couple of days. However by Thursday a new Low pressure sinking SE and filling slowly over the UK maintains unsettled and showery conditions for several more days. In the far reaches of FI the weather becomes more North-South orientated with the North seeing rain at times still while the South looks somewhat more settled and a little warmer as high pressure lies close to the south at times. ECM this morning also shows Low pressure and heavy showers lasting from now until Monday as Low pressure only very slowly inches away NE and fills over the weekend. A ridge is then shown to move equally slowly across the UK with a cessation in showers for most by Tuesday and Wednesday. Thereafter ECM follows GFS and shows an Atlantic Low and drifts it slowly SE over the UK to lie over France by Saturday 16th. This would mean a return to relatively cool conditions after a slightly warmer few days with heavy showers occurring again chiefly in the south by day 10. Any hopes of a return to high summer this morning look as remote as ever. If I was straw clutching I could highlight a few days when the weather would be fine and warm for all but with the pattern hardly changing at all over the upcoming week or two, a continuation of bands of rain and days of heavy showers seem inevitable. Needless to say some places in this showery type will fair better than others and some will no doubt say after the period that the weather has been OK but I think away from the SE such places will be few and far between.

UKMO shows the current showery pattern thats setting up persisting through until Sunday with low pressure meandering around the British Isles for the following three days before slowly drifting NE into Scandinavia. However even by Monday the air from the North is still unstable enough for showers on the eastern side of the UK as the weakest of ridges is held at bay just west of Britain. GFS also shows Low pressure dominating the UK with its centre near Northern and Western Britain between now and Saturday when it finally moves NE to Scandinavia taking the worst but not all of the showers with it. Through the early days of next week the weak ridge that enters the UK early next week gets quickly displaced by Low pressure drifting south then east along the English Channels meaning further unsettled weather for western and southern areas until the second weekend. To end the run high pressure builds east from the Azores to give a fine, warm and settled end to the run as High pressure settles over the nation. ECM is very similar to UKMO with the showery flow on the flip side of the Low slow to depart the UK with some showers still occurring in eastern regions on Monday. However, the ridge finally makes it in on Tuesday/Wednesday with a couple of welcome fine days with sunny spells and reasonably warm conditions too. Towards the end of the run pressure falls again with renewed Low pressure shown elongated North-South down Western Britain with rain for those regions. The run then ends with Low pressure having transferred to the east of Britain with heavy showers and relatively cool conditions having returned. Things are still very tentative with Low pressure refusing to leave our shores for any length of time. Both GFS and ECM show short incursions of drier and more settled conditions with GFS going the whole hog by the end of its run by showing a nice UK based summer anticyclone. In the 6-10 day range both models shows renewed low pressure following the ridge early next week in different locations simply meaning the risk of rain and showers scattered about over the UK again is highly likely.

UKMO continues to show a showery theme in its output this morning as Low pressure takes up residence near the UK until later in the weekend. By Monday though a weak ridge is shown moving in from the west killing the showers in the process. GFS also shows the same showery theme and ridge by Monday. The ridge looks weak and transitory though as after a few days Low pressure trundles back in off the Atlantic to affect the weather by producing more rain and heavy showers as it becomes slow moving near Scotland by 240hrs. For the remainder of the run we watch the progress of the Low amble south through Britain and only very slowly away east keeping the UK in unsettled and showery conditions to the end of the run with temperatures suppressed in the cool airflow. ECM is less progressive than GFS in the low pressure next week and though the general pattern of GFS is shown it keeps the centre of the second low further North and East keeping the rain and showers at their worst there. In the south and west it would be predominantly dry though never very warm with a NW component to the wind and quite a lot of cloud at times. In Summary the operationals have backtracked a little from yesterdays marked improvements. Instead after a brief ridge early next week we see GFS bringing a second stubborn low pressure over our shores and further days of cool showers while GFS though drier is keeping things generally unsettled principally in the North and East though even the south and west could see a few showers in a cool NW flow.

UKMO shows Low pressure dominant over the UK from now until the end of its run centred over Northern regions from Wednesday/Thursday on. After a band of rain moves east over the UK tomorrow in association with an occluded front the weather turns showery for 4 or 5 days with heavy showers or even more prolonged rain at times and temperatures near normal at best in winds that will be between SW and NW. GFS is similar up to and over the weekend before a slow rise of pressure slowly but surely brings drier and more settled conditions into the UK first in the south but in the north too by the end of the run. Innitially though weak troughs running east into the high pressure will mean some cloudier periods with light rain before a return to pleasant conditions again soon after. Towards the last days of the run a UK based high pressure brings warm and settled conditions for all as it drifts slowly east. ECM follows the UKMO route with showery Low pressure dominant until Sunday following tomorrow's occluded frontal rain. The final days of the run then show the showery weather slowly giving way to slightly more settled conditions though weak frontal areas could still deliver a little rain chiefly in the north and certainly a lot of cloud in the gentle westerly drift. Temperatures would recover somewhat though. A showery 4 or 5 days is likely after tomorrows rain supported by all three models. Thereafter a slow improvement looks likely as pressure gradually rises from the SW. Cloud amounts could still be large though as the flow is still shown to blow from the Atlantic with temperatures recovering slowly. Frontal systems would still deliver some rain to the north especially at times.

UKMO shows Low pressure moving in from off the Atlantic with a band of rain crossing east over the UK tomorrow, reaching the east coast late in the day. Following that and lasting through the rest of the week and weekend will be showery conditions. Through most days some of the showers could be heavy and prolonged with hail and thunder as Low pressure centres on the UK, dying out somewhat from the SW by Sunday as Low pressure begins to move away NE. GFS follows a similar course. It brings a temporary rise of pressure early next week as a ridge crosses east allowing a couple of dry and warmer days for all before renewed Low pressure is shown to steam in for a while midweek. Towards the end of the run a more substantial rise of pressure takes place as High pressure extends towards England from the Azores so that southern areas south of Scotland would become very warm and humid with sunny spells and dry conditions. Scotland and areas near west facing coasts would be unsettled still with a breezy westerly flow and rain, heaviest in upland areas in the far north with coastal fog likely in the moist flow. ECM is fairly identical to UKMO up to 144hrs. In its extended part of its run a ridge of high pressure moves east early next week drying things up before northern areas become unsettled again as Low pressure moves east on a more northerly track to the North of Scotland. Further south a ridge from the Azores stays close enough to bring dry conditions, however with a westerly element to the wind some cloudier spells would occur. Temperatures would pick up in the south under this ridge. In Summary a showery week is cast in stone now with some heavy rain locally with hail and thunder in places and temperatures near to normal. As next week moves in the weather has a chance of breaking out of the current pattern as pressure falls over Greenland and the Azores High is allowed to throw a more meaningful ridge towards southern Britain by midweek next week. Further north though Atlantic Lows and troughs will be close enough to maintain the unsettled and breezy theme there.

Tonight's UKMO shows a cold front moving NE through the UK on Tuesday with Low pressure then becoming slow moving over Northern regions for the rest of the run. Rain would move NE in association with the trough on Tuesday followed by cooler, fresher air with heavy and prolonged daytime showers with hail and thunder in places. GFS is similar with its evolution beyond Saturday of introducing a slacker flow over the UK and although not settled there would be longer drier spells between the showers, especially in the south and it would urn somewhat warmer. Towards the end of the run a Northerly flow is shown re-invigorating inland daytime showers over all areas in rather cool conditions. ECM completes the hat trick of showing a very showery second half to the week with strong Low pressure centred over Northern Britain. Beyond that pressure is shown to be higher close to the south but it is debateable whether it is close enough to stop Atlantic troughs (in association with Lows crossing east North of Scotland) from stalling across southern areas with rain at times while the North would always maintain unsettled, windy and showery conditions at least until day 10 when a more substantial ridge brings warmer air as it nudges up from the SW. In general not a lot of change tonight. After a showery week or so the crumb of comfort offered is the passage of Low pressure more to the North with time allowing pressure to rise somewhat from the south. This is both illustrated by GFS and ECM but it still looks to be just a temporary feature and is too far out to take seriously at the moment.

UKMO tonight looks very unsettled as from Tuesday with our current ridge collapsing as a cold front crosses the UK through Tuesday introducing rain followed by heavy slow moving showers as Low pressure centres over Ireland. GFS is the same with Low pressure settling near the UK for the middle and end of next week with rain and showers, some heavy for all areas. By Sunday a ridge develops from the SW as Low pressure finally moves away over Scandinavia. For a while thereafter, high pressure lies close to the south with rain more restricted to northern regions while the south has a drier interlude. Towards the end of FI Low pressure develops near the UK once more with a 'back to square 1' type scenario towards the end of the run. ECM follows the same plan with an unseasonably deep Low off western Scotland later next week. After rain moves across later on Tuesday the remainder of the week sees heavy, thundery showers in rather cool conditions, especially under the rain. By the end of the run there are tentative signs of rising pressure in the south as the Azores high pushes high pressure over France but as shown it s not close enough to exert much influence until 240hrs when a temporary warming takes place with the chance of a plume type scenario in the days that follow. All the runs show variations on a theme tonight. That theme is unsettled and showery for a number of days through the latter half of next week with some longer spells of sometimes thundery rain too. Both GFS and ECM offer some hope of a break in this setup in 10 days or so with ECM inparticular looking a little steamy on day 10 and no doubt on the days that follow. However, these are just weak signals at the moment and need much support in the ensembles and in the runs to follow.

UKMO this morning brings Low pressure into the UK from the West by late Tuesday with rain then showers moving slowly east across all areas and lasting then to the end of the run. GFS also shows Low pressure close into the west and NW of Britain by midweek bringing showers along too. It though for the remainder of its run offers periods when Low pressure positioning is more favoured for southern and eastern regions to see drier periods and reasonably warm spells too between the showers before things go decidedly unsettled and breezy for all in the last few days of the run. ECM also swings a trough NE over Britain through Wednesday with rain for all followed by slow moving Low pressure over or to the NW of Britain for several days delivering heavy, slow moving and thundery showers for many. Towards the end of the run things cheer up a bit for the south as a brief ridge crosses east and the following Low pressure axis is more North allowing rain to be more restricted to the North and West with drier and warmer conditions though cloudy for the south in association with the proximity of High pressure over France. A very showery look to the models this morning with plenty of scope for rain for most though there is some evidence of drier and sometimes warmer interludes for the south if the Azores ridge is allowed to come close as per GFS and later ECM.

UKMO shows slack high pressure in control of the UK weather between now and Tuesday with reasonably warm weather with cloud coming and going and very light winds. Temperatures in the low 20s in the south and east with time. By Tuesday and Wednesday Low pressure edges in from off the Atlantic with rain then showers and somewhat cooler conditions for all. GFS this morning is much less disturbed than last night with the Low pressue breakdown next week fairly temporary in the south as the Azores High pushes a series of ridges across before High pressure takes control again in FI. As it stands there would be a few unsettled, showery days next week before the south becomes mostly settled, dry and eventually very warm as High pressure builds over the UK deep in FI. Any rainfall from Atlantic troughs would be reserved for the NW with a few thundery showers in the south at the end of the run. ECM shows quiet weather out till Tuesday of next week when low pressure comes in close to NW Britain generating showers through the remainder of next week as it slowly fills in situ. Some dry, bright and warmer spells with fewer showers seem likely towards the south and east at times though by the same token some of the showers would be heavy and thundery where they occur. This theme lasts until the end of the run. This morning sees a marked division in the runs as GFS has flipped this morning giving southern regions a much more summery look after next weeks brief showery spell. However, UKMO looks little different from last night bringing Low pressure over the UK by next Wednesday. ECM is much like last night though the Low pressure seems less energetic allowing the far south and east to see fewer showers at times. All in all a slightly less pessimistic look about the overall output for southernmost areas but little change for northern and western regions.

UKMO tonight shows the next 4 or 5 days as mostly dry and fine as High pressure hangs on over the UK once arriving tomorrow. Never very warm but pleasant conditions with a lot of cloud at times. By the end of the run Atlantic Low pressure has reached our shores bringing a spell of rain followed by showers in the south by 144hrs. GFS also shows a dry weekend but as we go into next week Low pressure moves in from the west and anchors itself over Northern Britain for the rest of the run keeping unsettled conditions with rain and heavy, thundery showers for all areas from next Tuesday on. ECM follows a similar path with dry, benign weather from now till Tuesday with large amounts of cloud, dry weather apart from a few light afternoon showers as weak High pressure covers the UK. Through next week pressure is shown to fall with rain spreading NE on Tuesday night to be followed by sunny intervals and heavy showers on Wednesday as Atlantic Low pressure becomes slow moving over NW Britain. Thereafter, Low pressure remains anchored over the UK with widespread heavy and thundery showers and relatively cool conditions right to the end of the run. After the next 4 or 5 days of relatively high pressure holding over the UK all three models are indicative of a shift to Low pressure based weather from Tuesday of next week. GFS and ECM show an unseasonable and potent Low pressure becoming slow moving near the UK giving many days of sunny intervals and heavy showers with hail and thunder on most days locally. Coastal regions in the west and south may not fair too bad at times where winds blow directly off the sea. Temperatures would be near normal but cool in any persistantly showery zones.

It looks like UKMO this morning has further extended the dry weather out till late Tuesday/Wednesday away from the far NW and shows the High pressure from the SW over the next few days seem very reluctant to give ground meaning dry, bright and warm weather for most areas spare the odd shower before more generally unsettled conditions arrive from the west next Wednesday. GFS follows a similar pattern also bringing unsettled conditions across the UK next Wednesday. From then on GFS keeps a mobile Westerly flow over the UK between High pressure to the SW and Low pressure crossing just to the North of Britain. Bands of rain then showers would affect Northern areas frequently with some in the south too but ridges of High pressure crossing the south at times would interrupt the unsettled theme with some short fine and warmer conditions. ECM completes the hat trick with fine and pleasantly warm conditions up until Tuesday of next week away from the far NW being replaced by Wednesday with rain and showers moving in from the west in association with slow moving Low pressure to the NW then over the UK until the end of the run. The showery days could well see some of them being heavy and thundery but with some pleasant sunny intervals between in a run of days with average temperatures. We see a further extension to the dry conditions this morning out until next Wednesday. Temperatures will be in the low 70's for many areas of the south and 25C in the Southeast is easily possible early next week. Thereafter, Low pressure does move in from Wednesday on, delivering the heady mix of sunshine and showers that have been a frequent occurrence so far this summer and temperatures near to normal. GFS keeps Low pressure more mobile with the run continuing the possibility of some drier, brighter spells in the south.

UKMO tonight shows High pressure moving in from the SW over the next few days to give pleasant, bright conditions and a pretty decent weekend for many with warm but not humid conditions with sunny spells and no more than the chance of a shower.. As we move into next weekend Low pressure is shown to move in from the Atlantic with some showers for many by Tuesday with some more prolonged rain reaching the SW later. GFS shows a similar setup up to the end of the weekend but is less decisive on bringing weakening Low pressure in next week keeping relatively fine, bright and warm conditions up until Tuesday. After then the charts show Low pressure of sorts take hold with showers or rain at times though High pressure never far from the south brings regular breaks in the showers to the south to make overall conditions not too bad there. Winds are always shown between SW and NW so normal temperatures seem likely with slightly warmer conditions than normal in the south in the drier spells. ECM also seems to have given us another dry day next Monday to go with the run between now and then as High pressure moves in from the SW and declines only slowly later in the weekend. A few isolated showers could occur though at times in the afternoons in the slack conditions shown. Later through the week things turn decidedly unsettled as deep low pressure centres first west of Scotland then over the UK bringing copious heavy, thundery showers for all regions on a brisk SW wind lasting through to the end of the run and no doubt beyond. The most unsettled model tonight is ECM with plenty of rain and thundery showers from Tuesday of next week. GFS on the other hand keeps things a lot more indecisive as Low pressure is much weaker allowing high pressure to the SW to be more influential at times especially in the south. Despite no heatwave on offer from any model tonight if GFS verifies some places in the south might not see too much rain and see reasonable enough temperatures most days.

UKMO's 00z shows a pleasant two or three days now spare the odd shower or two with some reasonably warm sunny spells as an area of high pressure trundles into the UK from off the Azores. It looks as though it will last the weekend for most before Atlantic Low pressure moves in from the west by Tuesday. GFS also brings high pressure in but releases it a day earlier as slack low pressure becomes established early next week over the UK with heavy showers likely for all by then and cooler temperatures. Thereafter, Low pressure is shown in control of the UK weather with days of heavy showers and sunny intervals. A brief respite for the south seems likely then for a while close to high pressure to the south before an almost Autumnal look to end the run takes hold with deep low pressure close to the North. ECM follows UKMO in timescale with the unsettled theme arriving early next week after quite a reasonable weekend for many spare the odd shower. It then brings the Low pressure into the UK from off the Atlantic to dominate conditions from then until the end of the run with heavy showers or rain at times for all. Not much overall change this morning but it does look like the south at least will see reasonable conditions between now and early next week as high pressure is shown to be a little more resistant to the Atlantic Low this morning. Then things follow the trend as shown on previous runs of rain or showers in rather cool and breezy conditions as Low pressure moves in close or over the UK.

Well done you folks in the SE today. Heat storms aren't something that feature on the models much tonight. UKMO shows the next few days with a slightly showery west to northwest flow with pressure building from the SW to form High pressure over us by the Weekend. This continues moving NE out into the North Sea as a cold front approaches the west late Sunday as pressure falls. Several dry and reasonably warm days are likely, especially in the south before the shower risk increases Sunday. GFS shows a similar pressure rise over the next few days before showing the high slipping east rather quicker than UKMO meaning Atlantic fronts and accompanying showery conditions reach most parts over the latter part of the weekend. From then on GFS paints an unsettled and showery spell with some more prolonged rain at times, temperatures not much better than normal and just brief drier spells. ECM keeps the high pressure theme going for the end of the week with the same fall of pressure through the weekend allowing the risk of showers to increase with time. Further on and ECM takes a very unsettled turn with fairly deep Low pressure close to the North influencing the UK with cool and very showery conditions and more prolonged rain at times with no sign of an end anytime soon after the 240hr chart. Things look decidedly changeable still from tonight's output with rain and showers for all from time to time with the Atlantic train in total control across the three models. No doubt some places in the south and southeast may fair better than elsewhere but with the charts as shown there would be no gaurantee for any sustained dry spell even here.

A little quiet on the model front this morning as this changeable weather continues. UKMO shows a steady rise of pressure through the rest of this week as high pressure down to the SW takes hold. NW winds with a few showers likely tomorrow before progressively brighter and warmer conditions reach all parts by Saturday. Over the weekend the High pressure cell drifts into the North Sea, pressure falls with the chance of rain or showers for many come Sunday. GFS looks much the same while from Sunday the charts look quite changeable and always pulling frontal systems in from the west, most active in the North with occasional ridges in the south giving the best of any drier and brighter spells with temperatures for the most part near normal though occasionally warmer in the south. ECM also lowers pressure from the North over the weekend with a distinctly unsettled and showery back three or four days to its run. Across the three models this morning it looks like after a dry interlude late this week and at the start of the weekend the weather will be dominated by Low pressure to the North, High pressure near the Azores and Greenland. There would be periods of rain or showers for the North and at times in the south too though some bright and occasionally warm interludes will be mixed in here.

Here's a snapshot of the 12zs of UKMO, GFS and ECM tonight. UKMO tonight shows pressure building from the SW over the coming days replacing the cool NW flow thats developing as I write. After a few showers tomorrow and perhaps Wednesday the high pressure dries and warm things up for most up to the weekend. At 144hrs the UK lies in something of a 'col' area with mostly dry weather though not excluding the chance of a shower. GFS shows a similar trend up to the weekend but then turns the weather very unsettled with an eventual belt of Low pressure from Britain to Scandinavia lasting several days delivering copious showers or rain at times. In the very far reachs of FI the Atlantic remains in control though not without some pleasant weather in the south for a while under a transient Atlantic ridge. Rather cool generally. ECM also shows a ridge of high pressure late in the week before collapsing under pressure from the Atlantic and Low pressure over the Baltic. after a dry and warmer few days late this week the weekend would see a greater chance of showers. Thereafter, its high pressure over Greenland and the path of Atlantic depressions that have the UK in their sites that maintain a westerly flow with rain at times and relatively cool conditions for all areas. The outlook looks broadly similar tonight to what it has been with the Atlantic dominant over the UK. Both GFS and ECM paint an unsettled picture with just short drier interludes between the Low pressure areas and temperatures looking no better than normal for most.

While the excitement of today's events unfold here's a quick look at the 00zs today. UKMO continues to show a Northwest flow through midweek with a build of pressure from the SW to be followed by falling pressure in association with an Atlantic Low out to the NW. Fine and reasonably warm weather in the south at least later in the week will give way to the risk of showers over the weekend. GFS follows the same route with the evolution after the weekend keeping the Atlantic 100% in control with Low pressure following one another east towards the UK. High pressure will be close to the south and southeast at times so some drier and warmer spells there. ECM also shows a ridge of high pressure being squeezed out over the weekend as Low pressure, albeit rather slack take control of the weather from the weekend. Its run is slightly less progressive than GFS but nonetheless the Atlantic rules pushing showery Low pressure in a generally westerly flow towards us from time to time. In Summary today may be the last time we see high temperatures for a while as the models all show a westerly element to the winds from tomorrow on through the next week or two with rain at times and some drier interludes too, chiefly in the south as weak ridges pass over.