Gibby

The 12zs tonight in a nutshell. UKMO shows cooler weather spreading from the west across all areas in the next 24hrs with rising pressure from the SW giving several dry and bright weather days for most before cooler more showery conditions slowly extend to most areas from off the Atlantic by Saturday. GFS shows cooler fresher crossing all of Britain in the next 48hrs. Pressure then builds from the SW to give several dry and reasonably warm weather more especially for the south. Then for the remainder of the run pressure falls steadily with spells of rain or showers for all periodically but not without some short, more settled weather in the south at times. ECM is much like the others through the week with cooler and more showery conditions extending over the UK over next weekend as winds turn Northwesterly. It then keeps the changeable theme going with a shower or rain risk for all till the end of the run. The extended runs from GFS and ECM show that the weather will predominate as changeable from late this week on as both models show a strong Atlantic influence near our shores between low pressure to the north and high pressure near the Azores. Some brief brighter/warmer days are shown in association with ridges crossing the south at times.

UKMO this week shows something of a thundery breakdown tomorrow night and Tuesday as the heat gets pulled away SE followed by a cool and fresh couple of days in association with a NW flow before the Azores high rebuilds towards the end of the week to give southern areas at least further warmth and sunshine by next weekend. GFS is ditto through the week. Thereafter, the high pressure over the south gives ground as pressure falls from the north for a while introducing the risk of rain to all before pressure builds from the SW once more in FI. GFS ends with a slack pressure gradient and the risk of showers. The weather though the period could best be described as changeable with the best of dry and warmer spells in the south while the north runs the greater risk of staying cooler and wetter. ECM finally also brings more settled and warmer conditions back from the southwest at the end of the week before relaxing things away south as westerly winds take over in the latter stages of its run with always high pressure to the SW and Low pressure to the North meaning as per GFS the driest and brightest conditions are likely further south in Britain. Taken overall the three models post pretty standard summer fayre at the moment with occasional Azores ridges nosing into southern Britain in the gaps between Low pressures passing east to our North. The weather would also be fairly normal with a lot of dry, bright weather in the south with temperatures near or at times a little above normal while the north sees more rain or showers at times and normal temperatures at best.

In Summary tonight:- GFS shows a cold front moving erratically SE over England on Monday/Tuesday replacing the heat with cloud and thundery rain in the SE before things cool down under a NW flow. GFS then shows a sustained period of Atlantic winds with rain at times and near normal temperatures with some warmer slots as ridges pass in the south. UKMO has slowed the passage of the cold front until later Tuesday giving the risk of thundery rain for quite a large slice of England overnight Monday/Tuesday. Cool air followed by a new ridge late in the week brings a return to settled and warmer conditions late next week. ECM looks a lot more promising tonight in the long term with several opportunities fulfilled on building the Azores high towards southern Britain delivering some pleasantly warm summer weather with just short slightly unsettled conditions more notably for the north. It looks like ECM is pick of the bunch for fine weather fans tonight. All models seem to offer the chance of some thundery weather in the SE late Monday/Tuesday to which the extent is still unfinalized. Thereafter. pressure rebuilds from the SW late next week before GFS breaks things down with unsettled Atlantic based weather while ECM draws high pressure up from the SW frequently to encourage fine and settled conditions at times, at least in the south.

Good evening and here's my account of how the 12zs of GFS, UKMO and GFS look tonight. GFS shows a slack southerly flow on Sunday as our briefest of hot snaps arrives. The far NW continues to be cloudy with occasional rain. By Monday a weak cold front moves slowly SE through the UK with little precipitation for many though some thundery showers could break out in the SE through the day and overnight Monday. Tuesday sees the cooler air having reached all but the far SE where there still could be some thundery rain about. Elsewhere it would become mostly dry apart from a few showers in the north. Wednesday and Thursday shows a cool NW flow over the UK with some showers in the North and East ahead of rising pressure from the SW settling things down by Friday. Over the weekend pressure is high over the south with a WSW flow over Scotland. Dry weather would ensue over England and Wales with cloudier weather in Scotland especially in the west with a little rain. With time cloudier weather extends SE with a gradual return of more unsettled weather for most at the start of the new week. This changeable theme continues until the end of the run with winds from a west or NW point for much of the time keeping temperatures at best near normal. UKMO brings the cold front SE on Sunday night/Monday with the chance of a thundery shower or two as it moves through the SE half of England. By Tuesday the trough has moved away into the near continent with cooler, fresher conditions having reached all areas. Some showers will occur in the north and west before pressure rises from the SW to be centred south of Ireland by Thursday with settled and warmer conditions developing everywhere apart from the far northeast of Scotland. ECM also has a cold front moving SE across Engand on Sunday night/Monday morning with scattered thundery showers possible ahead of it before cooler, fresher weather moves in behind. By Tuesday the hot air still lies close to SE Britain with a thundery Low over NE France giving the potential of further thundery rain over the far SE. Elsewhere the weather becomes modtly dry but rather cloudy apart from a few showers in the cool flow. By Wednesday a cool NW low has established over all of Britain with some showers occurring in the North and West. From Thursday to Saturday High pressure builds over the south but weakens over the weekend as Low pressure pulls down from the NW over the weekend. After several fine warm days in the south the weekend becomes somewhat cooler and more showery before the end of the run shows a weak ridge of high pressure over the south once more ahead of new Atlantic systems no doubt to invade the UK further into the working week. In Summary tonight widespread thundery activity looks a little less likely tonight with the SE mostly at risk. From then on the weather stays fairly changeable with some fine warm days in the south and some less settled weather for all at times. It should be somewhat warmer overall than of late though. NOTE: No update tomorrow morning as I'm working away in Oxfordshire and for once nowhere near a computer. Should be back in time for the 12zs though.

Nearing the hot snap now. here's the latest from GFS, UKMO and ECM. GFS makes for a humid damp start tomorrow but the overnight rain is shown to move off with brighter, sultry conditions spreading up from the south. Sunday would be dry and hot in England and Wales with more cloud and some rain in the NW. By Monday a trough moves gently east promoting some thundery activity, especially for the SE on Monday and Monday night as cooler air moves slowly in from off the Atlantic to other areas. By Wednesday cool NW winds cover the UK with some showers in the North and West with temperatures back down to normal values. High pressure rebuilds temporarily from the south delivering another fine second weekend before the Atlantic wins through again by the 4th. Thereafter until the end of the run winds maintain a westerly element with High pressure to the SW and Low to the North with rain or showers at times, chiefly in the North and temperatures not far from normal. UKMO is very similar with a somewhat thundery trough lurking near SE England on Monday night into Tuesday. After a hot and sunny Sunday with perhaps the odd shower or storm overnight for many Monday will also be very warm or hot in the SE. Through the day cloud would increase from the west with thundery showers breaking out in the SE as cooler, fresher air invades Western Britain by Tuesday with winds turning towards the North. The thundery conditions may linger in the SE for a while but by the end of the run winds have settled into a fresher and cooler westerly as high pressure rebuilds from the Azores. ECM continues to make more of a thundery breakdown for a larger portion of England as a closed centre of Low pressure develops to our south on Monday night/Tuesday meaning after Sunday and Mondays heat increasing amounts of thundery activity slide up from the SSW Monday evening and night giving locally very heavy rainfall for a while before fresher conditions move in on Tuesday as the Low transfers from Brest to the North Sea. Wednesday then sees much fresher conditions for all with westerly breezes and some showers in the North and West. By Thursday the Azores high builds back over Southern Britain temporarily giving a fine day or two before pressure falls once more as Atlantic Low pressure takes control to end the run with rain, showers and cool conditions returning. In Summary this morning after a hot day or two things are set to turn much cooler by the middle of next week. The nature of the transformation between the hot and cool will be marked by a cold front. GFS and UKMO seem to make little of this as it moves east giving some rain and the possibility of thunder in the SE on Monday Night/Tuesday. ECM on the other hand shows a wave on the front developing a closed thundery Low pressure centre which would deliver more widespread thundery activity and heavy rain in the same time frame as it moves up through Southern Britain and then out into the North sea. Thereafter things simplify with things slowly getting back to normal as the Atlantic regains control with just brief ridges and associated fine weather mixed with periods of widespread unsettled conditions as per the ECM run and to a lesser degree with GFS.

Hi folks. Heres my account of how the 12zs of GFS, UKMO and ECM look tonight. GFS shows a weak ridge then a warm front moving NE over the UK tomorrow and tomorrow night bringing warm, moist humid air with rain and drizzle and hill fog from SW to NE. Behind the front clouds will break up from the south as drier air spills up from Europe giving a sunny and very warm late Saturday for parts of the south. On Sunday winds become light southerly with plenty of sunshine and temperatures soaring into the 80's in the south and east. Monday looks fairly similar with light winds and even higher temperatures (30C plus in the SE). These high temperatures and with instability aloft moving in from the west could spark off some lively thunderstorms late in the day. Tuesday looks a very thundery day as a developing low pressure drifts North through the day with rain or storms almost anywhere. By Wednesday cooler air would have flooded east across the UK with a cool NW breeze as the Low drifts north up the North Sea. This lasts through Thursday and Friday as High pressure from the Azores re-establishes itself over Southern Britain. The weather settles down then for the second weekend with warm, sunny spells, especially in the south. Thereafter into the depths of FI the weather slides back downhill as high pressure ebbs away in response to Atlantic low pressure taking control again. UKMO follows the GFS trend up to and including Sunday with rain late Friday giving way to an increasingly very warm weekend. On Monday Low pressure is centred near the Faeroes with cooler fresher air invading from the west later in the day. The SE will hold on to the hot conditions with 30C possible before the cooler air starts to arrive here too late Monday night with just the chance of a scattered thunderstorm. Cooler air is ensconced across the UK over Tuesday and Wednesday but the warm weather will never be far away from the far SE with perhaps some thundery rain still on Tuesday. ECM also follows the same route until Monday with an increasingly very warm and sunny Sunday to look forward to following some rain on a NE moving warm front late Friday and a steadily brightening if humid Saturday. On Monday it looks like being very hot with temperatures of 25C -32C possible in the SE. With pressure falling and very humid air scattered thunderstorms could break out later on Monday and more widely on Monday night/ Tuesday as Low pressure transfers north over the UK. By Wednesday it has introduced much cooler and fresher air on its southern flank to all areas with further showers in a keen breeze. Pressure then rises from the South as the Azores high drifts towards and eventually over the south. Fine weather would develop with things becoming comfortably warm in the south though still rather cloudy in the far NW. The remainder of the run shows high pressure drifting over to the North sea with a couple of very warm days before it all dissolves disappointingly into a return of lower pressure, cooler air and rain at times. In Summary there looks to be good model agreement on a short sharp burst of heat with the chance of 32C+ possible in the SE. The breakdown is less cut and dried, with GFS and ECM delivering a thundery breakdown overnight Monday and through Tuesday. UKMO is less convincing for this pushing cooler air eastwards late Monday/Tuesday with less excitement. Thereafter high pressure rebuilds from the south for a while with a further warm few days around the second weekend before GFS and ECM both show the Atlantic regaining control in their later stages.

Hi folks. Here's my take on the 00zs of the big three. GFS brings a weak ridge eastwards tomorrow ahead of a warm front on a brisk SW wind. After a dry, bright start cloud and rain will move NE later in the day and overnight with hill fog and mist becoming extensive overnight. Saturday and Sunday sees winds back of Southerly importing very warm air from western Europe. After a cloudy start to Saturday skies would brighten steadily with some hot sunshine developing in the south and east extending North on Sunday. Overnight Sunday a cold front moves slowly east over the UK and with very warm uppers in place showers and thunderstorms could break out in places especially further east. Once passed the weather would cool down as winds turn into the NW with fresher air and some showers in the north and west on Tuesday and Wednesday. Later in the week the Azores high throws another bubble of high pressure our way and a rerun of the previous weekend takes places as a cold front displaces warm air over the south and east of the UK. In deep FI Low pressure takes control centred over Northern Britain with rain or showers and rather cool conditions returning before the Low pressure weakens and slides SE at the runs end. UKMO is similar to its past offering in bringing a rain bearing warm front NE over late Friday and early Saturday introducing very warm and moist air with much hill and coastal fog in the north and west. However, as winds back south late Saturday/Sunday a day of very warm and sunny conditions seem likely especially in the south and east where temperatures could approach 28C in the SE. By Monday a weak cold front crosses east bringing the risk of local heavy rain or a thunderstorm while at the same time introducing fresher and cooler air from the west. By Wednesday all areas will be in cooler polar maritime air with bright and fresh conditions though warm, thundery conditions may stay close to the far SE. ECM follows the events of the other two models up to and including Sunday. Thereafter it handles the breakdown rather differently in continuing to show its trend from last night in developing Low pressure to the SW and moving it North over the early days of next week. Sunday would be dry, very warm with hot sunshine in the south and east. Late in the day and overnight thunderstorms could breakout in the SW and drift NNE in the flow. By Monday many more areas see thundery rain transfer NE while the south and west become cooler and fresher later as winds turn westerly. By Wednesday all areas dry out as cooler air has extended to all areas with a few showers in the north as the low moves away. Thereafter, the Azores high slowly takes control again with a small centre settling over Britain by the runs end bringing a return to dry, warm and settled conditions away from the far SW where a few thundery showers could drift NW later. In Summary today I would say a few or at least one very warm sunny day looks likely around Sunday before a general cooling takes place over the early days of next week. Widespread thundery activity over this breakdown look unlikely unless ECM verifies with the most likely chance of thunder in the east on GFS and UKMO being over Monday. Further out it looks likely that after a few cool days the weather might re-settle as High pressure redevelops close to the UK bringing the chance of a rinse and repeat of the previous weekend as per GFS or something a little more sustainable as per ECM.

Good evening folks. Here's the evening look at the latest 12zs from GFS, UKMO and ECM. GFS shows a showery day tomorrow before a ridge dries things up overnight and Friday morning. The ridge crosses the UK quickly and is equally quickly followed by a warm front moving NE through the day. Rain innitially in the west will move quickly north and east through the day and could be heavy in the north. Rain or not the weather is shown to become very humid with hill fog and drizzle Friday night. By Saturday low cloud and fog on hills could be reluctant to lift from windward coasts and hills but the cloud would break in the south and east late Saturday and more widely on Sunday with temperatures rising steeply in some hot sunshine. However, by Sunday night and through Monday a weak cold front moves steadily east removing the hot air and introducing cooler fresher Atlantic winds to flood in later. There could be a short spell of thundery weather accompanying this change but widespread thundery activity from the charts as shown looks unlikely. Thereafter through the rest of the working week cooler Atlantic winds and some showers in the North occurs before a rinse and repeat setup allows very warm weather to return briefly over the second weekend and again at the end of the run with further cold fronts moving east cutting short further warm snaps with a further risk of thunder at the transition points. UKMO shows a similar pattern with the ridge on Friday giving way to a rather active warm front moving NE later in the day and overnight. Saturday and more especially Sunday shows a rapid brightening as very warm, humid air moves up from the south with some very warm sunshine in the SE particularly. Over Sunday night and Monday a cold front trundles east with the risk of thundery rain before things cool down and freshen up late in the day. By Tuesday with Low pressure to the North an Atlantic westerly develops keeping things rather cooler but dry for southern parts though showery further north. ECM continues to be the joker of the pack tonight with the events up until Sunday the same as those described above. Thereafter, the hot weather of Sunday is shown to extend into Monday as Low pressure develops down to the SW. Overnight Sunday and into Monday things are shown to become very thundery as cooler air advances into the hot air over England. Showers and thunderstorms could break out widely lasting into Tuesday before cooler air pushes in from the west on the southern flank of the Low as it continues to drift North over Ireland. By Wednesday increasingly cool air extends to all of the UK in association of a deep low over Scotland with strong winds, rain and showers for all. As this moves away pressure builds again from the south with the chance of a rerun similar to GFS by the weekend. The run ends with the second warm surge also being displaced by a cold front with thundery rain followed by cooler temperatures in association with a low to the NW. In Summary tonight both GFS and ECM support a rerun of the heat build this weekend as a possibility next weekend too. If the ECM run transpires some copious rainfall totals could occur early next week. The long term still looks generally quite changeable with spells of cooler showery conditions interspersed with short warm or very warm weather terminated by short thundery conditions.

Good morning everyone. Hee's this morning's account of the 00zs from the big three. The current cool and showery theme continues across all models until Friday with low pressure moving slowly away NE from our shores. GFS on Saturday shows a warm front moving NE through Britain bringing rain and drizzle for a while early saturday and introducing moist, humid air. Western coasts and hills would be shrouded in fog and drizzle with the east and SE brightening later. Then on Sunday as winds back southerly very warm, continental, drier air is sucked Northwards with sunny skies and high temperatures away from the NW. By Monday a weak cold front moves slowly east bringing cooler Atlantic air but ahead of it the high temperatures could trigger some thundery showers or storms. By Tuesday cooler air has spread to all areas with some rain in the North. Pressure builds strongly in association of the Azores High which extends over Britain onThursday. Thereafter a temporary injection of lower pressure bring the risk of rain but fine and settled weather dominates for most of the time as high pressure lies over or close by. Temperatures would lift into the very warm or hot category by the end of the run with 30C possible in places. UKMO brings the ridge across on Friday with the warm front following overnight Friday to give a cloudy damp start to Saturday for many with drizzly rain and hill fog widespread. Through the day and definately over Sunday clouds break up as drier air feeds into the south giving a sunny, very warm day for southern and eastern areas though the NW is shown to stay quite cloudy and misty. By Monday a cold front moves east over the UK bringing temperatures back down with a short spell of thundery rain before cooler fresher conditions reach all areas by Tuesday. ECM is the stand alone model this morning. It follows UKMO up to Sunday but keep things very warm and humid then as the cold front and eventual thundery Low formation to the SW delays the onset of fresher air. Sunday would stay mostly dry and away from the NW become very warm and humid in strong sunshine. By Monday things will turn thundery down to the SW with quite heavy rain likely there with thunderstorms breaking out further east in southern England likely too. Then over Tuesday and Wednesday as the Low drifts North any remaining warm air is swept away east on the strengthening westerly breeze south of the low pressure centre with further rain at times. The run ends then as last night with pressure becoming slack over the UK with an upper cold pool trough keeping the risk of showers going in light winds and normal temperatures. In Summary it looks as though the latter end of the weekend will become briefly very warm but a cool down will take place early next week with the risk of thunder heightened by the ECM solution. Then it seems a waiting game for the Azores high to rebuild in a more favourable way to introduce a more sustained spell of summer weather. GFS shows this well and although ECM is slower to indicate this we're not a million miles away from it developing by 240hrs.

In all honesty a very poor forecast for today. Even down here in the southwest I've had no measurable rain today and it remains relatively bright. Despite all of us reporting dry weather still the met office refuse to say they got it wrong with the same bleak forecast on BBC1 at 1.30 as earlier. It's one of those days when the best advice is to look out of the window.