Polar Maritime

Much better potential this morning, with the models starting to get a grip on the pattern change to something much colder and wintry. A nice chart to see, let's hope the models maintain this current trend.

Never mentions Globsal Warming in the article Keith ? Meteorologists say that the extreme winter weather has been caused by the combination of three low pressure systems from the south and the east. Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2532566/Freezing-cold-blizzards-grip-Northeast-Canada-records-temperatures-cold-Mars.html#ixzz2pHoOTGEF Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook But with it does bring extreme weather events...

We could get a lucky burst here, from Firgie.. "Recent runs shifted it further north - e.g. Welsh uplands; Peak District etc. Very PPN intensity dependant anyway." http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78936-model-output-discussion-1st-january-2014-06z-onwards/page-18#entry2882315

New Year, New Temperature Record. The NOAA has released its preliminary report of Global temperature analysis for November 2013, offering an oversight of the near complete year. The administration has revealed 2013’s average land and ocean temperatures were 0.62 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average (from January to November). Land temperatures have averaged 0.98 degrees C above the long termtrend- tying with 2002 as the fourth highest temperature anomaly. Ocean temperatures in 2013 showed less severe warming at 0.48 degrees C above the average, similar to 2006- the eight warmest year on record. But, 2013 was bound to achieve 1st place in some category, and that lies with November. November gave us average land and sea temperatures for the record books; the warmest month in 134 years, with temperatures 0.78 degrees C above the 20th century average. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/11/

As i said W.E change to cold Zonal ie N/W flow not West. Not significant cold or snow, it's a start.

WoW thats some rainfall Barb, 16.2mm here yesterday. Lovely day outside, and very usable at that.

It has been and will be a long process during this pattern change, we can see the models still struggling with how things will unfold, and the change is yet to start happening in the real world, but it's there and slowly getting into the reliable with a much cooler settled Zonal flow to start the proceedings. All the background signals are there, let's get the cold here first, the snow will come soon after.

Just look at the size of the new sunspot group 1943 turning towards us... More big flares on the offering, yesterdays flare clearly reached X, but NOAA are classing it as an M9.9. SOLAR ACTIVITY IS HIGH: 2014 began with a bang. At 18:54 UT on January 1st, big sunspot AR1936 erupted, producing a strong M9-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the explosion's extreme ultraviolet flash:http://www.spaceweather.com/

Much more settled today with clear sky's and light winds, what a difference a day makes !

Yep still Tipping it down here to, plenty more prolonged beefy showers from the S/W to come looking at the radar.

Almost an X! AR11936 just released an M9.9 solar flare..

Lashing it down here.. 10.3mm now.

Still moderate sometimes heavy rain here, currently 8.2mm S/S/E 16mph

My brain is not very good this morning for one reason, or another so sorry if i have misquoted B.A.

B.A said the models take into account the warming model'd in low res.. Hope im correct. Yes Mucka as i said early'er a growing trend reg GFS.

As J.H has said in the MOD thread, maybe something wintry today in the next 3-9 hours over the higher parts of the Pennines. Wales is reporting sleet. Still like a washing machine out there, 6.4mm so far today.

Hope you are correct John, V heavy rain here atm we will see... Dp should start to drop a little later, reports of sleet in Wales. Temp 4.6c Dp 3.7c Wind Chill 0.2.

Very very heavy rain now and winds gusting to 52mph, It's like looking into a washing machine out there.

Raining Cat's n Dog's here, What a day out there !

Well another run and the trends are still there, and even stronger this morning for heights to pump up over the pole and nearly splitting the Vortex, Jet even further South slowly blocking the Atlantic. Very promising signs, remember we are going through a pattern change so lot's for the models to grasp. As i said yesterday, an interesting week coming up model watching !

Morning, HNY ! Maybe a chance of snow showers on Saturday but this could be restricted to high ground, we will see !

Happy New Year everyone here in the Midlands, a wet blustery start here with light/mod rain and very dull out. The local Hunt is on today, good luck to them...

Sunspot AR11936 just released an M6.4 solar flare..

The Polar Vortex is looking more disrupted with each run, heights slowly pushing up into Greenland blocking the Atlantic, Jet sinking south all nice trends to see.