bobbydog

just a thought... there seems to be a lot of bad feeling over disagreements as to the accuracy of long range forecasting. i have no forecasting experience or qualification. however (and correct me if i'm wrong) a LRF is a prediction based on the most likely outcome, of many possibilities, of the current weather conditions/synoptics etc. Obviously the weather is made up of many variables of which any slight change can result in the actual outcome being very different to the predicted one. Anyone who watches the GFS runs can see this clearly for themselves! therefore, long range forecasting is not a statement of fact, but an estimation of what the weather is most likely to be like, at any given period in the future and therefore have a fairly good chance of being wrong, more so at longer ranges. Hence forecasts are corrected as they go to take this into account. Given my limited knowledge, even i can understand this principle, so how anyone can justify attacking any long range forecast, creating unnecessary bad feeling, is beyond me! Rob

even then, very short lived, the ground is so dry it will soak it up rapidly

well i'd prefer that to rain any day!

probably not - the forecast for your location is 27C with heavy snow starting at 11.54pm then thick fog for 23 days

majority of icelandic monitoring stations are showing a steady rise in harmonic tremor. nothing spectacular yet, but one to watch...

very true - it is part of the laki fissure: Laki (Skaftar Fires) and Grimsvotn eruptions 1783-1785 The eruption at Laki began on 8th June 1783 with a brief explosive event on a short fissure, and lava rapidly began to flow into the Skaftfi river gorge. Lava reached the lowlands, 35 km away, four days later. Laki eruption created a 25 km long fracture and basalt lava flows extended 70 km. The lava flow covered 565 square km (14.7 cubic km). Large amounts of gas were produced in the eruption which covered most of Europe in a blue haze. Fluorine was released by the eruption and cattle died from eating the contaminated grass. Over 200 000 livestock were killed in Iceland and the resulting famine resulted in 10 000 deaths.

of course you can - its just a bit colder....

i think we should bet on the next volcano to go off in iceland. i reckon bardabunga iceland met office has lots of info, also 'volcano live' a site run by vulcanologist john seach, is a good one for updates on all volcanic activity

some quakes have appeared which were'nt there earlier. they must be sorting the data to filter them out from the harmonic tremor does anyone know how they arrive at a negative magnitude value?

strangely, not a single earthquake recorded in iceland for about the past 7 hours

earthquake numbers have dropped significantly but tremor measurements are on the increase again which indicates magma movement

it must be unusual because cars keep turning up on the webcam and people are getting out to have a look

the icebergs seem to be piling up as well. do we know the location of this 'lake' in relation to grimsvotn? lakes arent generally tidal unless they are connected to the sea. if not then it has to be glacial floodwater

we'll know soon enough if the ash will affect air travel, quote from iceland met office- " At 21:00 UTC, the eruption plume had risen to an altitude of over 65,000 ft (~20 km). Initially, the plume is expected to drift to the east and subsequently to the north. Thus, the ash is not expected to impact aviation in Europe, at least not during the first 24 hours. by tomorrow, the weather patterns give us an airflow from iceland, over the n atlantic, then to the uk, so we will see...

its definately raining.... IVE JUST SEEN A FLASH OF.... inspiration... i'm going to bed

all this talk of sferics, cape etc..... its dead calm, warmer now than it was 2 hours ago, humidity feels like its shot up and the cat's acting weird.... i feel it in my bones!!

that area of rain approaching the normandy region,- is it likely to fizzle out or intensify as it crosses the channel?

cloud breaking now, should allow some heat to get through, hopefully sparking something off later. some of the best storms i have seen have come out of nowhere

got woken up by the rain this morning but didnt hear any thunder...

any where in direct sunlight when the flare hits would experience destruction of the electronic infrastructure, similar to the EMP from a nuclear explosion - satellites, power stations, comms networks. planes will fall out of the sky. anyone outside, directly exposed, would receive severe radiation burns, anyone else would quickly die from radiation sickness. so basically, half the world would be wiped out hope that helps

heres the latest come on guys, lets keep this going for CH

NOAA website is a good source of info, here's the link :- My link

i agree. we cant really compare ourselves to moscow due to the continental factor. having watched the NOAA charts over the past few months, it does appear that the NAD has weakened. not having access to previous years charts means we have nothing to compare it to, to see if this is a natural fluctuation or something more unusual. i dont see how it could stop completely as it is part of a worldwide system of currents - they couldnt just all stop! however it could possibly be diverted by other factors. a large driver of the surface current is the wind. the jetstream being further south could be one cause of the apparent weakening. i wonder if in the past, a weakened NAD has allowed sea ice to form more easily at the furthest limits of the current, thereby 'blocking its path' and causing a cycle which allows this process to accelerate, eventually contributing to 'ice-age' conditions anyway, just my little theory, feel free to 'point and laugh' if you wish

the british isles have been subject to the mercy of the weather since we first inhabited these islands. we see all extremes of weather, from 30c in summer to -20c in winter, stifling heat, torrential rain, flooding, thick fog, deep snow, widespread ice, severe gales. people in other countries live at the farther extremes of any of the weather types i have mentioned and they survive and cope because it is what they are used to. we cant control the weather but we can control how we deal with it. unfortunately, modern society has set a standard to run at the 'average' of our weather. anything outside of the average is classed as bad or disruptive. if our society accepted that we are subject to all types of extreme weather on a regular basis, we would be able to cope. everyone has their preferences of weather but we should all enjoy the beauty and diversity that our weather brings. anyone who cannot cope with any particular aspect of our weather should move to a country which more suits their needs