bobbydog

very mild at the start of the month, gradually falling towards average so i reckon 7.4

thanks for the post john, very informative. btw, i just realised, i think the 'irrational' comment was aimed at me! (no offence taken however) i wasnt suggesting that november would necessarily influence december, its just that earlier LRFs for the winter months which included november were showing a cold november. this has recently turned around to a mild november. my question was really just about how this could affect the bigger picture of winter and how the overall weather patterns could change from the original forecasts

the metO are going for a mild november, UK Outlook for Saturday 6 Nov 2010 to Saturday 20 Nov 2010: After an unsettled start, much of the UK will see near or slightly below average rainfall. Most places will see a mix of showers and longer spells of rain, usual for November, but also a good deal of sunshine in between. Temperatures are expected to be mild for the time of year much of the time. Updated: 1213 on Fri 22 Oct 2010 Doesnt seem to be any impending coldness for us any time soon. How does this bode for the predicted cold december? Any thoughts anyone?

The Buick swans have arrived 3 weeks early, - they come from siberia so i'm going with their forecast!

got a roaring fire going tonight!

thanks for correcting my link. the story of this winter is definately starting to filter through to the general public

yet another story, the media are catching on to the cold winter possibility http://www.telegraph.co.uk/

ok, so give us some substantiated, NON- twaddle as to why this is all BS. IF you are going to pour scorn on other peoples opinions, at least give us your scientific reasoning as to why. or are you one of those people who refuse to believe anything until it stands up and punches them in the face!

nice find! shame they only go up to jan of this year and show slightly different velocity scales, so we still cant accurately compare current data. still worth studying though!

we dont have access to charts from the last 10 or 20 years and i dont see anyone claiming to be a professional

sorry, i should have clarified that, yes i did mean similar to iceland as it is today and it was only a rough comparison

there is no such thing as the moon. its a hoax

this has been mentioned before- it is slower and more consistent at 200m therefore shows up on the charts more. i look at all the depths, velocity and temps, 0m down to around 500m as these are the most relevant. 0m probably being most important

of course we can! they are using a new computer prediction system. its called 'netweather'.........

i have been watching these charts since this thread began and although not dramatic, there has been a noticeable steady decline in the strength of the current. Wether or not this decline continues, remains to be seen. As you say, it would be nice to have last years data to compare it to but it is weaker compared to july (earliest comparison data available) especially around the caribbean and the gulf of mexico which apparently is where it picks up a lot of its heat

i agree that our climate could never be the same as russia or canada as our weather is heavily maritime influenced. however, if the stopping/slowing NAD scenario were to unfold, would our climate not become more similar to iceland?

Ah! thanks ben, so basically the mei corresponds to the strength of la nina/ el nino and everything that is influenced by it

thanks very much for that john, how about MEI?

hi peeps, could someone explain what ITCZ and MEI stand for?

its not a melt, its the annual siberian snowman making competition

hi paul, this subject has interested me also for a few years. whilst i agree with most of what you say, i was under the impression that the SSTs would not cool due to a pause/slowdown of the NAD, the result would be that the warmer tropical waters would not be transported towards us as they are now causing equatorial regions to get hotter and the uk and surrounding areas to get colder, in line with other areas on the same latitude. basically creating an even temperature gradient from the equator to the north pole

apparently they found an old roman thermometer near hadrians wall which read -35c. they keep it in a freezer at newcastle university so they dont lose the reading

MY WINTER FORECAST: its going to be a bit nippy outside!

http://en.vedur.is/e...es/vatnajokull/ i realise this is kind of the wrong thread, but i just thought i'd get some opinions on this, as far as i'm aware, volcanic eruptions follow an earthquake swarm then increased tremor measurements. all the surrounding seismic stations are showing increased low frequency tremor- a sign of magma intrusion. i'm aware that it doesnt mean the volcano is about to blow but it is a very large increase in activity so it could be ready to pop! the reason i mentioned it here is because if it does go, it could have a major impact on our coming winter and most likely next years weather as well. definitely one worth watching!