bobbydog

i just hate the general way newspapers report cold weather heres an example "Residents are being urged to wrap up warm as winter kicks in just in time for December and the Christmas rush." what? why? would you forget? who is doing this 'urging' ? " oh no, nobody urged me to wrap up warm so i've gone outside in a t-shirt and got hypothermia" aaaaagh!!!!

i hate it when people say that where i live - because they're usually right!

whenever any one says to me 'its too cold to snow' i always get them to imagine they are an emperor penguin standing in a -70c, 100mph blizzard, then asking them if they still think its too cold to snow!!!

i love your optimism!

looks like my 7.4c is out of the window now

Moscow five-day forecast Date Local time Weather Max/Min temp Wind Pressure Relative humidity Visibility Dir Speed Sun 21 Nov Day 0 °C ESE 10 mph 1023 hPa 95% Good Night 0 °C Mon 22 Nov Day 0 °C NNE 5 mph 1017 hPa 93% Moderate Night -1 °C Tue 23 Nov Day 1 °C SE 5 mph 1011 hPa 96% Very Poor Night 1 °C Wed 24 Nov Day 9 °C S 12 mph 988 hPa 96% Good Night 3 °C Thu 25 Nov Day 5 °C SW 8 mph 996 hPa 90% Good Night -1 °C bit of a hiccup for wednesday (copy/paste didnt come out lke i wanted but you get the idea)

not that far to go really!

as i said, they were pretty accurate for the first week or so of november, it got up to 19c down here but they did alter the forecasts as they went. the end of this month is looking vey different now to the forecast i commented on but it was some time ago, so i suppose on average they werent way off the mark

just checking, your question was a bit open to interpretation

good to remind people but i did post this at the top of the page

the good news- UK Outlook for Monday 22 Nov 2010 to Wednesday 1 Dec 2010: A generally unsettled and chilly start with clear or sunny spells, but also with showers, particularly in the east, where some longer spells of rain are also possible. Showers wintry over hills. It will soon turn colder into next week with showers turning increasingly wintry to lower levels with a risk of some significant accumulations of snow in northern and eastern parts. Temperatures below average for the time of year with an increasing risk of overnight frost and icy surfaces, especially where skies clear. Feeling cold in the often fresh and mainly northeasterly wind. The cold theme then continues through to the beginning of December, with northern and eastern parts most at risk from wintry weather. lets hope this is just the start.....

well they were right for the first half of the month, it was very mild early on, bearing in mind earlier forecasts had gone for a cold november and i was asking a question regarding the METO forecast, are you having a dig at me?

er, no, where did you hear that?

as far as i can see, they are dicussing the GFS charts for the lead up to winter. is this not the winter thread?

thanks for the info guys, however, the latest run is showing the 528dam line to be well away from the UK now

correct me if i'm wrong (and i may well be!) but dont the 850hpa temps also have to be -5 or below for snow? if that is the case then for this forecast period they are not, therefore snow is unlikely

well if you look through the previous posts, that could appear literally overnight

its too cold to snow

High five!!!

Russians testing new snow clearing equipment

BOBBYDOGS WINTER FORECAST: i think this winter wil be cold. my theory being based on winter usually being colder than other seasons. compared to july, december will be freezing! so will january and february. many will wonder what i have based my scientific theories on, but it is quite simple- CARLSBERG THEORY!

are we there yet???????

i dont know if its the newspapers contradicting each other or the MetO contradicting itself, but... THE EXPRESS: Helen Chivers, Met Office forecaster, insisted the temperature map takes into account the influence of climate factors such as El Nino and La Nina – five-yearly climatic patterns that affect the weather – but admits this is only a “start point†for a seasonal forecast. She said: “The map shows probabilities of temperatures in months ahead compared to average temperatures over a 30-year period THE TELEGRAPH However, the Met Office warned that the figure were only part of the data used to build predictions for December, January and February’s weather but do not include such influential factors as the El Nino-La Nina high-low pressure system in the Pacific Ocean and the North Atlantic Oscillation, which partly governs the winds and storms which arrive in Britain from the west. Well do they or dont they?????

i'm sure our more learned forum members will give you the scientific details, but yes, snow cover does have an effect. it increases cold pooling and reflects solar energy. so more snow = more cold = more snow = more cold....... and so on. - in simple terms anyway!

hi LOTS, merapi is only really in the news as it is a danger to the local population. it rarely produces explosive eruptions so is unlikely to affect the weather at all. however, i read recently that the volcanoes in the kamchatka region of russia are the ones we should worry about, then i found this today Saturday 23rd October 2010 Klyuchevskoy Volcano, Russia Explosive eruptions continue at Klyuchevskoy Volcano, Kamchatka. During the last week there has been increased activity, and ash plumes have reached a height of 30,000 ft above sea level and extended 300 km north of the volcano. The volcano is currently at the highest level RED alert. we rarely hear about these as they are in a largely unpopulated area but apparently there are several large volcanoes in this region which have the potential to all go off at once!!