A Winter's Tale

MOUNTAIN SNOW WATCH: Snow is forecast to fall in places as forecast by Snowforecast.com. The Met office have even warned of a risk of snow on the Scottish Mountains. Remember to check webcams to see if it has snowed.

Tonight could see the first frosts for some so here is our FROST WATCH: The coldest temperature in the UK currently is 7.9C at Loch Glascarnoch and with the coolest of the uppers expected to arrive later well surely there will be some frosts. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/observations/ Here is the perfect site to check temperatures. The BBC have mentioned that temps may be as low as 2C in places like Aviemore so expect the arrival of Jack Frost within the next hours.

First Frost = sometime in October Last Frost = sometime in Spring. Speaking of frosts is there any sign of frosts this week after a poorer run on the models.

I would love to see my first ever October snowfall ever however I think this time of year is more suited to sunshine, some atlantic fronts, fog and frost with some cloud cover with perhaps some warm days and snow. I think it's good of we have an influence of warmer weather this month as it may save us from being under this pattern in winter. By the middle of November I think we will have our first realistic idea of winter and perhaps by then we may be under yet another Big Freeze. I'm going for a winter that will see one very cold and snowy period of weather (most likely between late November to mid January and perhaps Febuary). I then expect some periods of Atlantic dominated weather, anticylonic aswell as more potent northerly outbreaks than we saw last winter. 3RD OCTOBER STATS: Max Temp: 28.3C Min Temp: 5.5C Current Temps for Cold Night: Lerwick - 9.5C Current Stats for October: Days with Temperatures over 20C: 3 Nights with Temperatures below 0C: 0

I think I'll: Reset and record temps at 9AM and then Reset/Record again at 6PM or so. I'll get the maximum temperatures of let's say December 6th and Minimums of Night 5th/6th and 6th/7th.

I've got my thermometer. One thing I find strange that the indice that's meant to record the maximum temperature sometimes doesn't reach the proper highest temperature i.e the current temperature is 20C but the highest recorded temp is 15C. One other question is what time do you record and restet your thermometer readings. Like if you decided to record minumum temperatures starting from re-setting it at 9PM and checking/re-setting at 9AM - you may not know whether the minumum temperature happened on 16th or the 17th or the minimum temperature could have happened during the daytime. How do you work it out?

OCTOBER 2011: INDIAN SUMMER - TICK EARLY BLAST OF WINTER - WATCH THIS SPACE.... Here are a a few dramatic (and laughable headline to get the winter coat out again): http://www.metro.co.uk/news/877373-britain-set-for-heavy-rain-and-snow-as-hurricane-ophelia-ends-mini-heatwave http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2044601/UK-weather-Get-ready-SNOW-HURRICANE-temperatures-drop-18c-Friday.html http://www.tntmagazine.com/tnt-today/archive/2011/10/03/uk-weather-heatwave-over-wind-and-snow-on-way.aspx http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/15146926 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/indian-summer-it-was-fun-while-it-lasted-2364694.html http://global.christianpost.com/news/hurricane-and-snow-to-hit-uk-following-record-hot-october-weekend-57113/ http://fallenscoop.com/57603/uk-weather-goes-from-autumn-heatwave-to-hurricane-ophelia-bringing-heavy-rain-and-snow http://travel.aol.co.uk/2011/10/03/make-the-most-of-the-heatwave-its-going-to-snow-this-week/ http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/275144/Hurricane-storms-in-to-end-Britain-s-autumn-heatwave http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8802629/North-braced-for-Hurricane-Ophelia-as-south-basks-in-record-breaking-heat.html http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2011/10/03/record-breaking-month-for-hot-weather-could-end-with-snow-forecasters-predict-91466-29526379/ http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/3849382/Snow-to-hit-UK-by-Friday-as-heatwave-ends.html http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-03/u-k-weather-to-turn-wintry-later-this-week-accuweather-says.html http://news.uk.msn.com/blog/news-bite-blogpost.aspx?post=cb1961a5-9e40-4dfa-97e2-612c8582593e Well there is no mention for James Madden for once but I bet he will be saying I started it. Anyway, the met office saying it's going to get cooler after the hottest ever October winter isn't feasable for an article to say UK to be hit by snow. It won't happen with the coolest temperatures being at 0-5c however I would like to test my new thermometer for the first time. Despite how exaggerated these articles are, it's good to see snow being mentioned and hopefully there will be a few frosts. If your looking for snow then head to the Scottish Highlands where the snow fis forecast to fall on the hill tops. If nothing happens from this spell then I'm sure there will be another more realistic oppurtunity later this month. However there is also the potential for yet another Indian Summer. I think most people from Scotland and Northern Ireland are glad to the see the end of the Wales and England heatwave as we suffered typically autumnal weather. I remember seeing a satellite image that showed all of England and Wales bathing in Sunshine and Scotland and Northern Ireland under cloud cover with boundary of cloud cover and sunshine forming right over the England-Scotland Border. 2ND OCTOBER STATS: MAX TEMP: 29.3C - CONINGSBY MIN TEMP: 3.7C - STORNOWAY Current Temperatures for Mins: Glenanne - 7.7C Eskaldemuir - 8.5C Loch Glascarnoch - 8.8C Aviemore - 9.2C Wick - 9.5C Stornoway - 9.5C

More than 1 in 3 chance of Big Freeze in December. Big Freeze could happen in January and Febuary and it may never happen. Catch my Drift?

Winter weather could be arriving to our shores within the next two months and I feel it is ideal to start a thread that gets people fired up for what this winter has to give. Your Dream Day of Winter could be a day you have lived and want to relive it or a day that you would have loved to have experienced. Or you can combine all of your knowledge about winter weather together and make a completley amazing day. The weather you choose could be anything from the tranquility of a crisp, sunny day to raging storms with powerful winds, swelling seas and lashing rain and a incredible blizzard to a record breaking cold day (or a bit of everything). The format of your dream 24 hours of winter weather should be done as a weather forecast; review; observation/report and if you have any links or archives to enhance your forecast would be good. I'm still yet to come up with a definitive dream day however I have ideas including: Crystal clear and bitterly cold nights, nights with snow showers and clear skies, fantastic sunny, cold morning with the odd snow flurry, blizzard at lunchtime and afternoon, freezing and sunny afternoon and evening after snowy morning, fantastic sunset after streamers, evening blizzard, very snowy evening and night after sunny and showery day, nightime snowstorm... Looking forward to hear your dream winter day.

I've got questions regarding Scandi and Greenie Highs: 1) Which one is Colder (I suspect Scandi) 2) Which one is Snowier (Scandi?) 3) Which one is more widespread (Greenie?) 4) Which one lasts the longest (Greenie?)

OCTOBER 1ST STATS: MAX TEMP: 29.9C AT GRAVESEND MIN TEMP: 6.0C AT ALTNAHARRA It's Currently 28.5C at Gravesend so there is still a chance of reaching 30C.

What the weather has been like for the past 12 months, what it's like now, patterns for the month and the direction I sense our weather to be heading in. A bit of observation, intuition, analysing what weather has been like recently. However my opinion is likely to change as we get nearer to winter.

Now we are into October, the first signs of winter start to appear with the first frosts and longer nights. At the moment frosts look unlikely for the next 14 days however you can't rule anything out for the end of the month. A year ago next month will be the anniversary of the November 2010 Big Freeze. It's hard to believe that we can get severe snowfalls just a month away however anything is possible. I remember November last year started with 19C in the South and -18C in the North at the end. I believe a sustained, severe cold spell between the period 1-20 November is very unlikely however I believe we will have cold snaps. I think there is a chance of a severe cold spell developing at the same time as last year though I think the period 5-20 December is the more likely period to a severe cold spell. I expect December to be the month with the most severe of the winter weather however if this doesn't happen I do expect there to be a severe cold spell in either January or Febuary. Basically I think we will see a severe cold spell this winter. My thoughts: November 1st -20th - 15% chance of Big Freeze. November 20th - 30th - 20% chance of Big Freeze December 1st - 15th - 33% chance of Big Freeze December 15th -30th - 35% chance of Big Freeze January 1st -15th - 30% chance of Big Freeze January 15th-30th - 20% chance of Big Freeze Febuary 1st -15th - 20% chance of Big Freeze Febuary 15th - 28th - 15% chance of Big Freeze March 1st-30th - 10% chance of Big Freeze A Winter's Tale Verdict: Winter 2011/2012: 1 major cold spell - sometime between late November and mid January. Reason: Weather patterns, Northern Blocking.... What's YOUR VERDICT....

After missing out on the best of the heatwave I'm now on the look out for the first frosts. Looking at some of the models it looks unlikely that temps will fall below freezing between now and mid month. Hopefully we will see frost this month. It's hard to believe that a year ago next month we saw freezing temperatures and record breaking snowfalls. With the way the weather has been recently I'm unsure about a repeat of a cold spell of that intensity next month however I do expect one severe and prolonged cold spell something from mid December and late January. By the end of this month I'm sure things will be shaping up nicely for winter with the first frosts arriving and signs of northern blocking or cold weather developing in November.

CONTENDERS FOR FIRST 30C EVER IN OCTOBER: 28C IN MANY LOCATIONS AND GRAVESEND IS AT 38.9C. How about colder temps: 11.8c at Loch Glascarnoch 12c at Aviemore 11.5c to 13.7c in most Highland locations.

29.9C in Gravesend, how hot can it get!!!!! Will it be the highest temperature of the day - Well we will find it within the next 20 mins or so. Ironically, tonight marks the first hunt for low temps this October and the temperatures in the north of Scotland are struggling to rise above 13C so potentially a cold night although I expect more realistic oppurtunities for frosts within the next 5-10 days. Next Update coming soon.

It's cool, wet and miserable here in Central Scotland. I find it quite hard to believe that 30c has been hit in England and in OCTOBER!!!!!

CONTENDERS FOR RECORD OCTOBER TEMPERATURE AT 1200HRS: Northolt - 26.2C - SE England Loftus - 26.0C - NE England Trawsgoed - 25.8C - Wales Bedford - 25.6C - East of England Charlwood - 25.5C - SE England Weybourne - 25.4C - East of England Coleshill - 25.4C - West Midlands Pershore - 25.2C - West Midlands Heathrow - 25.0C - SE England Wales are only 1C away from beating their previous October record. Northolt in SE England is the nearest to beating the UK all time record with 3.4C more to go.

CONTENDERS FOR RECORD OCTOBER TEMPERATURE AT 1100HRS: Rhyl - 23.7C - Wales Trawsgoed - 23.7C - Wales Manston - 23.7C - SE England Woodford - 23.6C - NW England Kenley - 23.5C - SE England Benson - 23.4C - SE England Bingley - 23.3C - Yorkshire and the Humber St Catherine's Point - 23.3C - SE England Lofus - 23.2C - NE England Bedford -23.1C - East of England Heathrow - 23.1C - SE England Cottesmore - 23.0C - East Midlands Weybourne - 23.0C - East of England Plenty of 23C figures at 11am and there are still many more hours to get to more than 29.5C. Wales and the SE England are the current hot spots. I'll be doing this anytime there is a warm spell and anytime there is a cold spell this month. So our tally for temperatures over 20C somewhere in the UK this month is: 1/1 It went down to 6.3C in Altnaharra last night some temps below 0c this month are: 0/1 Tonight sees a slim possibilty of cooler temps in Scotland however the next 10 or so days do have the potential for frosts. Two locations in Wales are at 23.7C. The October record for Wales is 26.4C which happened on the 1st October 1985 (and the winter that followed had a harsh cold spell). The temperature just needs to rise a further 3C during the next 6-8 hours to beat the Wales record and potentially the UK record. Hopefully later on this month we will see records being brocken with the otherside of temperatures (minimum temps). Next Update should be within the next hour.

It's that time of year again. October 2011 has started with a bang with an Indian summer. However, as we all know October is a month with many characteristics with the first frosts, fog and snow of the winter, darker evenings and mornings, some atlantic storms, warm days plus calm clear and chilly nights. I would imagine that the start of October will be very different to the end as the nights get longer and the days feel cooler as you progress through the month. I expect a mixture of rainy periods plus calm settled days and some northerlies. I'm hoping for a October with lots of sunshine during the day and cold, clear nights and the odd day with rain. Remember, we are only a month away from a time when heavy snow and very cold nights are possible. Anyway, every day this month I will update on the highest day time temperatures and the coldest night time temperatures. So for October 1st 2011, the target is to beat the highest ever October temperature.

When was the last frost less October? A bit harsh but a northerly blast has been tottaly wiped out by yet another warm spell. In my opinion it's quite good to have our endless warm, southerly winds in October rather than in winter. Perhaps this could be quite good for the winter.

Perhaps a chance of frost between the 5th and 7th but it's still a long way out. Hopefully my first frost and freezing temperature of the winter.

I remember that very well. A very shortlived snowfall but boy did that system dump a lot of snow. Within moments of snowing everything was covered in white with thundersnow and strong winds. A very intense snowfall indeed and I'm hoping for something like that again.

December: 2.6c January: 3.2c Febuary: 3.8c Winter = 3.1c

Top 5 Warmest Octobers and the Winter that Followed: Oct 2001 (12.2) - Nov 2001 (6. - Dec 2001 (3.1) - Jan 2002 (5.0) - Feb 2002 (5.5) [4.53] Oct 1969 (11. - Nov 1969 (4.0) - Dec 1969 (2. - Jan 1970 (3.0) - Feb 1970 (1. [2.55] 2006.... 2005..... Oct 1995 (11.6) - Nov 1995 (6.9) - Dec 1995 (1.7) - Jan 1996 (3.9) - Feb (2.0) [2.53] November 1969 (4.0), December 1995 (1.75), January 1970 (3.0), Febuary 1970 (1. = cold winter Winter 1995/1996 and 1969/1970 were cold winters. 2001/2002 had it's moments however 2005/2006 and 2006/2007 were particulary mild. So there is no consistency with mild or cold winters following warm Octobers. Not so sure about the smileys!!!