A Winter's Tale

Pretty decent day today and pretty warm. I'm preparing myself for a grumpy uncle when his newly built stable will lose its roof for the second time within 5 months of being built with the prospect of Katia. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/st/st_forecast_warnings.html I've got to say that I like the layout of the New Met Office weather warnings. Instead of using a crayon on an entire council, you can now tell roughly where the severe weather will be and whether your town is likely to join in or narrowly miss out on the event. This should come in handy for the winter when the snow returns.

104 mph somewhere in Scotland (or Northern Ireland).

Has anyone got a recent satellite of Katia as I would be interested to see if it still has that distinctive tropical storm feature? I would imagine it will be very windy on Monday aswell as pretty warm. I would like to know what is the closest a proper Hurricane has ever come to the UK. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html An Amber warning for much of Central, Western and Souther Scotland aswell as parts of Northern Ireland. Met Office Warning:"The remains of Hurricane Katia are expected to come across the UK on Monday bringing a spell of wet and very windy weather. There remains some uncertainty about its track and intensity, although Scotland and Northern Ireland are most likely to bear the brunt of the winds, The public should be prepared for the risk of disruption to transport and of the possibility of damage to trees and structures." With an extra/ex tropical storm over the UK, I expect there must be a risk of some tornadic weather. With low pressure, wind and warm, moist air, I really wouldn't be surprised if there were to be a rise in Funnel Clouds over the UK and perhaps I may just see my first proper Tornado

At the moment, I would say anything could happen this winter by I've got a feeling that it will be somewhere between average to well below average. I don't expect a mild winter unless a promising big freeze fails to happen. Even if it is a mild winter, you can't rule out snow. Even in winters such as 2006/2007 there were cold snaps except they were not as cold, snowy or prolonged as in recent years. Even so, Frontal Snowfall can be just as distruptive as a big freeze. Regarding Solar Activity, La Nina, Recent Patterns... I expect a cold winter and a winter somewhere between a 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 type. I fully expect winter arrive sometime between the 15th of November and December, followed by a month of below average temperatures. I expect January to be below average with a little more snow than we had last year. I expect Febuary to be above average but not as mild as last year. However, anything can happen, but I expect a severe cold and snowy spell and I believe that winters such as 2006/2007 are behind us now. With autumn arriving so early and La Nina, I expect the worse of the weather to be in December and I expect January to have one or two notable Battleground Snow events plus a few decent cold snaps. With a strengthening La Nina, Febuary should be the warmest month of the winter. Very Cold Winter - 20%, Cold Winter - 35%, Average Winter - 25%, Mild Winter - 15%, Very Mild Winter - 5% Depending on how early and intense the first (and perhaps main) severe cold spell (if it happens) is, I expect December to be Below Average. Cold Weather should realisticly arrive between 20th November and 10th December. I expect the cold spell to last throughout December with temperatures regualry falling below -15c in Scottish Highlands and 30cm of snow quite widespread (particulary in the North and East). Start Date of Cold Weather: 28th November End Date of 1st Cold Spell: 8th December Cold Weather Resumes: 15th December Ends: 2nd January Min Temp: -22C in Altnaharra Max Snow Depths: 60cm in Tomintoul White Christmas: 45% December 2011 CET: -0.6C I expect the big freeze to finish sometime between 25th December and 5th January but my prediction is 2nd January. The month should see a mixture of mild and cold weather, atlantic and anticyclonic, snowy and windy. I expect a couple of significant and widespread cold spells lasting around 5 days each. Some battleground snowfalls, periods of Atlantic dominated weather and Anticyclonic with frosts. Min Temperature: -14C in Braemar Max Depth: 45cm January CET: 2C Febuary should see a warm up but expect 5 days of bitterly cold weather from the east before the mild weather dominates again. I expect a few spells of cold weather but in general a warmer month. Perhaps a spell of sunny and cold weather. Min Temperature: -9C Braemar Max Snow Depth: 25cm Febuary CET: 3.9c OVERALL WINTER CET: 1.7C Winter 2010/2011 = 2.43C Winter 20111/2012 = 1.7C Winter 2009/2010 = 1.64C

"It Will be Snowy this Christmas Snowy at Home It will be cold so cold With all this Snow This Christmas" Judging by this Snowy and rather than Muddy forecast, I suspect we will be looking forward to a Brrrrrrriliat Christmas.

As we are now Beyond Summer and into Autumn I think now is the time for a thread dedicated to certain time of year known as winter. With the presence of Northern Blocking, the first snows in Eastern and Northern Russia (better than this time last year) and other such factors, it looks favourable for something cold this winter. Whether we are restricted to a two week big freeze with once in every while 4 day cold spells following or an incredible Big Freeze winter is totally uncertain, however the picture will get clearer as we progress through Autumn. A weak La Nina would be decent for a cold weather, a strengthening La Nina could find us heading into winter with a cold start and a mild end. Whether you are hoping for the coldest winter on record with frequent snow and depths of two feet or a winter with endless storms or even sunshine with pleasant temperature with the frost, this is the place to discuss Winter Properly from now until the end......of Winter 2011/2012.

Quite a stark difference.

28TH OCTOBER 2008 28TH OCTOBER 2010 - Slightly better than 2008.

Yesterday Above; today Below - You can see the snow patch in N Siberia still there and more of the way of widespread snow cover a bit further east. Compare this to a year ago and the snow isn't as widespread as today. Let's Take a Look at Christmas Day 2010: You can see that about all of the UK is white and snow extends right through Europe. You can see that Ireland, UK, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Czech Republic are 100% white and the snow extends as far west as as the Med Coast of France and as far south as Romania. Christmas Day 2009: Although the Big Freeze 2009/2010 was incredible, December 2010 was far more impressive everywhere. Only the Baltic, Scandanavian countries and Belarus are all white and the western extent is only a thin ridge of snow across the Northern coasts of Germany, Netherlands, Belgium and France. Also, the snowcover in the UK isn't as nearly as impressive as 2010 as the southern extent of the snow is Romania/Ukraine. Christmas Day 2008 is also nowhere near as decent as 2009 with no snow in the UK, less snow in Europe and Snandanavia with the western extent being Poland although there is some snow in the Balkans. Southern extent is Ukraine/Turkey and countries with complete snowcover is Finland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Belarus and Ukraine. Christmas 2007 is far poorer that 2009 and 2010 with no snow in the UK, less snow in Snandavia, No Snow in the Baltics and very little in France, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark and N Poland. Western Extent is towards the Balkans and Southern extent is Ukraine/Turkey. No country has a complete 100% snowcover. Christmas 2006 is on a different planet compared to 2010 with the western extent of snowcover in Norway and with the exception of the Highground, there is very little to no snow in Europe and there is less snow in Russia. Christmas 2005 is better than 2006 with more snow in Europe though Scandanavia yet again has no 100% snow cover. Finland, Baltics, Poland, Belarus, Czech Republic have 100% snow cover. Western extent is eastern France. Christmas 2004 sees a bit more snow in the UK although it's pretty poor for Europe yet again. Belarus, Balrics, Finland have 100% snow cover. Christmas 2003 has more snow cover in Europe however very little in the way of 100% snow cover. Germany has more snow than the Baltics. Christmas 2002 sees snow cover extending into Eastern Germany. Christmas 2001 is the best for a while with quite extensive snow cover over Europe. Christmas 2000 is relatively poor though there is liitle bit of snow in Scotland. Poor for much of Europe and Finland in particular. Christmas 1999 is better for Europe and Scandanavia. When looking back at the past 10-12 years, you can safely say the Christmas 2010 had the best snow cover for Europe.

Check the Met Office site and look at the climate section. Click the top left feature that looks at data and average.... and then scrol down the page to local records and data. You'll find that Scotland had an average temperature of -1.8c in December 2010.

If you live in Scotland this is past years with sub zero months. January 1940 (-1.0c) - January 1941 (-1.1c) - + 1 year January 1945 (-1.1c) + 4 years Febuary 1947 (-2.4c) + 2 years December 1950 (-0.1c) + 3 years January 1952 (-0.1c) + 2 years Febuary 1955 (-1.0c) + 3 years January 1959 (-0.4c) + 4 years January 1963 (-1.1c) + 4 years Febuary 1963 (-1.2c) + 0 years Febuary 1969 (-0.8c) + 6 years Febuary 1978 (0.0c) + 9 years January 1979 (-1.0c) + 1 year Febuary 1979 (-0.1c) + 0 years December 1981 (-0.7c) + 2 years Febuary 1986 (-1.2c) + 5 years December 2010 (-1.8c) + 25 years This year we will be looking to beat records so here are some out of the many records (in Scotland) to be broken: Coldest October (5.0c) in 1917 Coldest November (1.1c) in 1919 Coldest December (-1.8c) in 2010 Coldest January (-1.1c) in 1941, 1945 and 1963 Coldest Febuary (-2.4c) in 1947 Coldest March (0.2c) in 1947 Coldest April (3.1c) in 1917 3.125 Here are some winter scenarios (Mean temps in Scotland to beat is 0.16) December 2011 (-0.5c) January 2012 (1.3c) Febuary 2012 (2.0c) Mean Temp would equal 1.44c (0.14c warmer that 2010/2011) and the 16th Coldest Winter. December 2011 (-2.0c) January 2012 (0.3c) Febuary 2012 (6.3c) Coldest December, January 2010 and Febuary 1998 = 1.47c Let's Take a Look at the Dream 2010's scenario. December 2011 (-1.8c) i.e Dec 2010 January 2012 (0.3c) i.e Jan 2010 Febuary 2012 (0.4c) i.e Feb 2010 The Mean would be -0.35 and the coldest winter ever. How about the Dream 2000's Scenario. Dec (0.5) 2009 Jan (1.3) 2001 Feb (1.9) 2001 Mean Temp would be 1.18 and colder than 2010/2011! And the 1990's: Dec (0.5) in 1995 Jan (1.17) in 1991 Feb (1.1) in 1991 Mean Temp would be 0.88c. Let's Look at 5 December slightly warmer than 2010 and 3 coldest January's and 5 Febuary's in the past 15 years. 1. Dec 2010 (-1. Jan 2010 (0.3) Feb 2010 (0.4) 2. Dec 2009 (0.5) Jan 2001 (1.3) Feb 2001 (1.9) 3. Dec 1996 (1. Jan 2011 (2.1) Feb 1999 (2.7) 4. Dec 1999 (1.9) Feb 2003 (2.7) 5. Dec 2008 (2.3) Feb 2009 (2.9) 6. Dec 2001 (2.4) Let's Take some of these months and see what the Mean would be: Dec 1999 (1.9) Jan 2010 (0.3) Feb 2009 (2.9) Mean = 1.63 Now let's see what 2010/2011 could have been like with a colder Jan/Feb or a colder winter (with different December) that 2010/2011 (1.28) Dec 2010 (-1.8c) Jan 2010 (0.3c) Feb 2010 (0.4) -0.35 Dec 2010 (-1.8c) Jan 2010 (0.3) Feb 2001 (1.9) 0.05 Dec 2010 (-1.8c) Jan 2010 (0.3) Feb 1999 (2.7) 0.38 Dec 2010 (-1. Jan 2001 (1.3) Feb 2009 (2.9) 0.76 - coldest December, 2nd Coldest Jan (one colder than 2011) and 5th Coldest Feb would make a colder 2010/2011. How about one try at a change of December. Dec 1999 (1.9) Jan 2010 (0.3) Feb 2010 (0.4) 0.83 Now let's take a look at the Coldest all time Winter in Scotland: Jan 1941 (-1.1c) Feb 1947 (-2.4c) Dec 2010 (-1.8c) Mean of -1.69 brrrrrrrrrrrrrriliant. Coldest Spring: March 1947 (0.2) April 1917 (3.1) May 1923 (6.2) A mean of 3.04 and colder than the likes of winter 2003/2004 and co! Coldest Summer: June 1927 (8.9) July 1965 (10.5) August 1912 (10.2) A mean of 9.47 And the Coldest Autumn: September 1918 (8.0c) October 1917 (5.0c) November 1919 (1.1c) A mean of 4.51c and colder than the winter 1989/1999! Just a bit of statistical indulgence!

TODAY: A YEAR AGO TODAY: Let's compare today and a year ago today. Well there is a very simular blob of snow in Northern Russia in both dates except it is larger today. 1 Year Ago 0-1 Today Today there are plenty of specles of Snow in the Northern and Eastern Parts of Russia and some of which are quite large. However on this very day one year ago there were only one or two lone and small specles of snow compared to over 20 today. 1 Year Ago 0-2 Today The Snow in North America is identical on both dates however to my eye it seems that there is slightly more today than there was a year ago. 1 Year Ago 0-3 Today Snow in the Himalayas is unfortuantly a win for a year ago. However I believe the snow in Russia is more important for the UK if you want snow this winter. 1 Year Ago 1-3 Today Today there is slightly more Snow in Iceland than there was a year ago. 1 Year Ago 1-4 Today Let's Take A Look at the Ice: Looking at the map, I would say that today beats one year ago because there is quite an impressive ridge of ice stretching south along the eastern coast of Greenland and heading towards Iceland. However the Ice was probably nearer to the USA and Russia this time last year though the ice in Greenland is distinctly impressive. Overall, I would say there is more snow in Russia today than there was a year ago. Let's see what tomorrow, a week later and so on would look like a year ago. Next Day doesn't look all that impressive and 1st September 2011 is still winning. However a week later it was far more impressive. If we get a few more snowfalls in the East then the picture would look very simular. Let's take a look at last year's week by week: 15th September - Quite impressive: 22nd September - Even more impressive! 29th September - More growth in N Siberia and USA. Notice the ice doesn't beat 1st September 2011. 8th October - The ice has still not beaten 1st September 2011. Decent build up of snow. 15th October - Snow in Scandanavia, large snow cover in Russia and Ice nearing September 1st 2011. 22nd October - Snow in Scotland, Ice reaches 1st September, snow is still the same in Russia. 29th October - Far more impressive and ice reaches further south along Greenland. 5th November - Not Quite as impressive although Snow grows in Scandanavia. 12th November - More impressive. Let's Take a Look at Jan 1st 2011: Jan 1st 2010: January 1st 2009: January 1st 2008: January 1st 2000:

Last Time: A WINTER'S TALE FORECAST - VERSION 1 - 7/8/2011 AUGUST 2011: Following a period of settled/warm conditions, the UK should be under the influence of Low Pressure coming from the west. This should bring windy and wet weather across the UK for about a week. The hardest hit areas should be much of Scotland, parts of Northern England and Northern Ireland. The Midlands should be overcast aswell as parts of eastern coasts and Northern parts of Wales. Much of the South and East should remain fairly settled and dry however the South West may be at risk of some heavy rain. Following this unsettled spell we should see a calmer and warmer spell of weather arriving from the South/East. Much of Southern and Eastern England, Southern Wales and Eastern Scotland should benefit from sunshine and pleasant temperatures whereas western areas of England and Wales and SW Scotland may be at risk of rain and cloud cover though the Highlands of Scotland will vary with some days of prolonged rain and some days of wall-wall sunshine. Unsettled South Westerly winds should follow the calmer spell. This will bring rain and wind to all parts though NW England and Scotland will hold onto the rain longer than other regions. There should be some showery spells and sunshine inbetween fronts. SEPTEMBER 2011: The month will begin with a brief warm spell with temperatures of 20c-26c in the South and East of England and temps of 15c-23c in other regions. The NW Highlands should hold onto extensive low cloud cover. The Atlantic will intervene and bring extensive and heavy rainfall to all parts with notably heavy rain for parts of Scotland and Northern England. There could be a risk of flooding and it will feel positively autumnal with temps of 9c-13c under overcast skies and high winds. After an unsettled period, High pressure should prevail and eventually bring a spell of summery weather to much of the UK. Widespread sunshine and temps around the high teens to mid twenties for most parts. Cloud cover only restricted to Eastern coasts and some upland areas. The High Pressure will eventually move to a position that will bring slighly cooler conditions, albeit sunny. Winds will strenghen and there may be a slight touch of frost under clear skies in rural areas. Winds will turn to more of northerly which will bring plenty of showers under a fresh wind. By Day, temperatures will be pleasant however by night we may see some cold temperatures and some frost. Some showers may be wintry on the highest Scottish peaks. OCTOBER 2011: A Polar maritime theme will replace the nothernly airstream and bring unsettled conditions with plenty of showers, cloud cover and low pressure systems. Expect strong winds and some flooding. Yet again High pressure will begin to dominate and the UK will be under an easterly/south easterly air stream. This may bring some warm temperatures to the South East, however the UK should enjoy extensive sunshine. There may be some frost by night in Scotland. The period following the settled conditions will see a mixture of two or three (or maybe more) days of settled conditions, followed by one or two days of unsettled Atlantic dominated conditions followed by cloud cover moving west to east before settled conditions prevail again. Some periods of settled/unsettled conditions may be longer than others. It will feel positively autumnal. The last few days of October should see a front leaving the UK with some fog and cloud cover following behind and a clear/cloudy and cool Halloween night could be possible. NOVEMBER 2011: Simular to October, there will be days of settled conditions, days of low pressure then cloud/fog before the UK is under a brief period of either NW, N, NE winds. The first few days will see one or two low pressure systems passing over the UK, leaving the country under more settled albeit cooler conditions for Bonfire Night 2011. Folllowing Bonfire Night, there should be a few settled days. There may be some showers and these could be wintry in some nothern areas. The atlantic may appear once more. Following a burst of activity from the atlantic, just before mid month we will see the UK under a brief cold spell. Temperatures may range from 1c in some highland areas to 9c in the SW. A Low pressure system from the west will end the cold spell however there could be some battleground snowfalls - most likely in nothern areas. A few days of showery conditions and local prolonged cloud cover will dominate most of the UK although some areas such as local Highland spots, S Wales, S England and London may escape such conditions. Throughout most of November, a cold pool had developed over parts of Northern and Eastern Europe. Like much of the summer/spring High pressure will develop either: over greenland; over the atlantic; to the north; to the east. During the last third/quarter of the month, the UK will be under an easterly/north easterly airstream with the wind in NE Scotland originating from Scandinavia/Siberia and the wind in E Scotland/ England originating from the Baltics, Southern Scandinavia and Central/Eastern Europe. The UK will see temperatures dropping each day and there will be frost by night everwhere. However eastern parts of the UK will be hardest hit by snow showers and there should be some decent accumilations to begin with. Southern England and Central Scotland will also suffer occasionally from heavy, persistent snow showers from the east. During the last quarter of the month the cold spell should intensify with temperatures not rising above freezing for many areas and night time temperatures to begin with dropping to somewhere between -2c in the warmest urban areas to -15c (or below) in Highland Scotland however day by day the temperatures will drop and -20c may be hit before the month is out and temps of -5c to -10c may become a common occurance during the night. However the east of the UK will bear the brunt of the snow with much of NE England, E/NE/C Scotland being worst hit although there will be days of crisp, winter sunshine with flurries. The north of Scotland may be under more of a NNE wind later on and Northern Ireland/W Scotland may be under a northerly wind with snow showers. These showers may emerge to become more persistent and widespread in the Irish Sea to affect parts of Wales and SW England. DECEMBER 2011: The first 5-10 days of December will see the UK to continuing to be in an intense cold spell with severe frosts by night and snowfalls. Snowfalls will vary with eastern/central parts of England/Scotland have heavy snow showers one day/ then only a few flurries the next. However when it's not snowing we can expect very cold temperatures by day with some places not rising above -7c. The focus point of the snow will change each day as each region will have their shot of the snow. Night time temperatures will be around -4c (in the warmest cities) to -25c in the coldest rural areas of Scotland. After a period of widespread snow showers across all parts, the UK will eventually be under a more settled spell will prevail with clear skies under a NE wind with some flurries. However it will be incredibly cold with day time temperatures not even rising above -5c for most parts and -20c will become more common by night (and not only in rural parts of Scotland). Towards the end of the period the activity of showers will increase once again. The cold spell over the UK will lose its intestity as High pressure moves slightly and winds come from more of a southerly and for some parts SE/SW. This will raise temperatures a bit (particulary for the south) however the north of Scotland should remain the cold conditions. This period will see little in the way of precipiation with only occasional drizzle, otherwise it will be dry and clear. However whilst the UK is under a slightly less cold period of weather, the core of cold will remain over Scandinavia, Eastern/Central Europe. This will grow into an even more intesne cold spell that will eventually breakthrough and reach the UK. After snow depths exceeded 40cm in Eastern parts with 30cm recorded in some central areas, there was only 5-25cm of snow left after a less cold period. However the southerly airstream would be pushed westwards as high pressure rises in Nothern Scandinavia and the Greenland high re-astablishes itself again. For the first few days, daytime temperatures will be chilly with frost by night. However, like the last cold spell, it will get colder and colder day by day - only this time it will become more propminent. Sometime around the 17th, the UK will see the first snow showers arriving in SE England. Daytime temps of 1c to -4c to begin with and night time temps of -3c to -12c. Like the last cold spell, Scotland will bear the brunt of the snow only this time its worse with snow showers travelling over the mountains and affecting some western highland and island areas. Northern Ireland will also benefit from the easterly airstream with snow showers passed on from central scotland. Like the last cold spell, it won't be persistent snow showers every day, there will be a variety in snowfall. Southern/Central England and Wales is also more likely to be affected in this cold spell with some heavy and large areas of snowfalls from the continent/north sea picking up intestity over the channel. This could bring some prolonged and exceptionally widespread snowfall over the southern half of the UK. There will be some quiter days in terms of snowfall, however the cold will become more intense on clear days with temps not rising above -10c in some areas and temps of -15c to -25c will become far more common. On the days before Christmas, the UK will see a variety of conditions with a blizzard in the moring (or night) with a mostly sunny day with flurries and a night with some showers (or vice versa). I expect everwhere to see some snow, however any snowfall will come from large areas of precipiation followed by periods of winter sunshine with some flurries. To sum it up it will be a mixture of sunshine, flurries and heavy snow each day. Temperatures will reach their coldest. Christmas should see the same them with periods of large, widespread showers crossing the country followed by sparkling wintry sunshine. After Christmas, some atlantic fronts may reach the channel and spread as far north as the midlands before clearing into the Netherlands. This will bring very heavy snowfall for a time and add to any present accumilations. Snow showers will continue for NE England and Scotland though the theme should be more settled but bitterly cold. Eventually, things may warm up a touch in the south with a thaw though the cold will remain in nothern areas. For the New Year, an atlantic front will engulf the UK and bring widespread snowfall. MY FORECAST FOR JANUARY WILL BE ISSUED NEXT MONTH ASWELL AS AN UPDATE FOR THE OTHER MONTHS. A Winter's Tale And How About Next Time..... Hello there folks and today is the first day of Autumn and we can look forward to times of Sunshine, Storms, Indian Summer, Big Freeze, Frost and Snow and of course Halloween and Bonfire Night. A great time of the year to drink in the atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere moving towards winter and the whole envoiroment around us changes. Anyway, as it is the first day of Autumn, I am going to issue my second Long Range Forecast. Obviously, confidence degrades month by month so any forecast made is bound to change. The difference this time from last time is that my forecast will be a month each day so today sees the September Forecast then tommorow is October, Sunday is November, Monday is December and Wednesday is January before the final and overall forecast on Friday which may see some updates. However I'll give you a wee insight: October - Very mixed with periods of Atlantic dominated weather, some sunshine as well as very warm weather at times, frost the odd cold spell and a chilly and settled end to the month following the Atlantic spells. November - Settled start, some frost and fog, Atlantic comes alive, cloud, then sunshine, settled then winter arrives. December - Very cold start, everywhere seeing some significant snow, NE bearing the brunt, severe weather mild period, big freeze arrives again, ends at New Year. January - Windy and Wet Start, cold and snow arrives, Sunny and settled, Frontal Snow, Mild, 7 day severe cold snap. A WINTER'S TALE FORECAST - VERSION 2 - 1/9/2011 SEPTEMBER 2011: Autumn should begin on a rather settled note with some large areas of sunshine (particulary for the South and East) and with some cloud cover in Northern Areas. Temperatures should be around 15-23c and with very little to no wind, it should feel quite pleasant indeed (unless you are near the coasts). For much of the first half of the month, the Atlantic should become more active and plenty of fronts will sweep over the UK with Northern Ireland, Much of Northern and Western Parts of Scotland and NW England will bear the brunt of the conditions. We may start to see the winds picking up a little bit and this could act as a remainder of the May 2011 storm as I expect western and Northern areas to face some strong winds which could cause some damage. These autumnal conditions will probably increase the rate of leaves falling off trees so expect a bit of a mess on some of roads and pavements in these areas. Flooding could become an issue in areas that lie at the bottom of Mountains/ Hills or Flood Plains. Temperatures in general will be around 10-17c for many places. The south should experience wet conditions aswell, but not as intense at that in the North and West. In between fronts will be drier and sunnier interludes with some cloud around near the coasts and the odd blustery spell. However in generall, conditions following and inbetween fronts should see more settled and slightly warmer conditions. Following a notably active Polar/Tropical Maritime spell, we should see things calm down a bit (and warm up, albeit expect some fronts and maybe even storms at times). We should see plenty of sunshine in most areas in the UK although of course coastal and some highland areas of England and NI may see some prolonged cloud cover. Temperatures will be around 16-26c and it will feel quite summery. The Atlantic will intervene once more and bring rain to the UK although Southern Areas may bear the brunt this time round. One or two chilly nights in the North may see the first frosts and there could be the odd snowfall on the highest of Scottish Mountains. With the Atlantic back, we will see periods of Quite Autumnal weather, however between fronts we may well see some sunshine. It should be quite windy at times and temperatures will be around 8-16c in generall throughout this period. Overall, an unsettled and chilly end to September. A Winter's Tale October Forecast Tommorow. November Forecast Sunday December Forecast Monday January Forecast Wednesday Long Range Forecast Friday My Long Range Forecast in October will be set up in a different way to that in August and September.

I'm not going to take charts, models and anything like that too seriously until we enter mid November. They will change day in, day out and even at a close time range, they can change all over the place. So I'm not going to treat it as a reliable source. Judging on how Autumn seemed to have arrived early this year just like our Spring and Winter, I feel we will see an early start to winter (albeit this does not mean a Nov 2010 event). So let's have a look at weather patterns. Winter 2010/2011: Started - November, Reached it's peak - December, Faded away - January, Ended - Febuary. Spring 2011: Started - Febuary, Continued - March, Reached It's Peak - April, Faded Away - May, Ended - May Summer 2011: Started - May? - Continued - June, Faded Away - July, Ended - August Autumn 2011: Started - August......, Continued September, Reached it's Peak - October, Ended - November.......

Northern Rab wrote: seem to recall that although winter 2010-2011 was the colder winter (although still very snowy), winter 2009-2010 actually delivered a lot more snow for the Scottish Highlands. Here's one of New Years Day in Inverness, this snow was topped up a bit more following this: Places such as Tomintoul, Aviemore, Carrbridge, Kingussie etc looked extremely scenic: Tomintoul: Glenlivet: I was up in Aviemore just after the New Year in 2010 and it was freezing and the snow was staggeringly deep. Low temps of -10c and the snow had depths of 2 feet although the snow ontop of the telephone box in your picture looks more than 2 feet.

It's no doubt that winter 2011/2012 will be the make or break winter for James Madden. A winter with yet another harsh and recording breaking cold spell will see his reputation grow, a mild, zonal and almost snowless winter will be the end of James Madden as an upcoming LR Forecaster. A mild winter certainly doesn't mean a snowless winter. If January was very mild just like Febuary then Winter 2010-2011 would have overall been regarder as average to mild despite seeing one of the worst cold spells ever in the UK. Winter such as 2006-2007 and 2007-2008 were pretty mild however, there were plenty of cold snaps although they lacked the length, intesity and snow that we've seen in recent years. If I were to see my first snowfall in March this winter with depths of 40cm I would be quite content. If I were to see yet another December 2010 with the rest of the winter carrying on without a snowflake well I would be over the moon. Remember, a mild winter does not neccesarily mean a snowless winter, in fact it could still see a few severe snowfalls from sharp 5 day cold spells, battleground snowfalls or even a Feb 2009 scenario. My Gut Instict is that we will see something cold yet again this winter. Whether it is an intense 7 day cold spell or an epic 31 day version of December 2010 is a question that won't be answered until we enter mid November and leave March. I believe this autumn will see spells of Atlantic dominated weather and this could happen during late October. I also expect the odd warm day in September aswell as October, with a few frosts in October and perhaps the first snowfalls mid month. Looking at recent weather patterns and the recent past, I am going to put my neck out and say December is the more likely of the winter months to see something severe and I believe very severe cold spells could happen after endless spells of mild, atlantic dominated weather. December has been quite a cold month during the past 10 years and I wouldn't be surprised if we have the best of our winter weather in December yet again. The summer just gone by has been incredibly poor like the past three and I have got a feeling that this winter will be simular to the winters that have followed recent poor summers. Of course, Solar Activity isn't at it's strongest and a blocking weather pattern has emerged as quite prominent in recent months and years. La Nina is a variable that could to an extent dictate how bad a winter we get. At the moment, summer and autumn is seemingly following the same pattern as last year. With the presence of Northern Blocking and the likelyhood of the Atlantic's last hoorah sometime in October, November or even early December and of course the fact that in 4-7 months time we will be in winter, you simply can't rule out any wintry weather and I believe you can't rule something simular to what we've seen in the past three winters. If we are going to see cold and snowy weather this year, the best of it will probably be in Late November and December (possibly early January depending on La Nina). With weather patterns and forecasts simular to last year, perhaps you may see the winter weather fade away somewhat beyond the New Year however you can't rule out on us having a relatively severe 7 day cold snap that seemed to avoid the UK like the plague last year and obviously Scotland may enjoy some more snowfalls. If December is some kind of a disapointment, well a Febuary 2009 type event could turn up and savour the winter just like what it did to me in the 2008/2009 winter or even a March 2006 event could pop up. Remember, from November to April, you simply can't rule out cold and snowy weather and when it's winter in the UK, expect at the least some snow because we aren't far away from it and it's the time of year you would expect it. Hopefully, a relatively severe winter in parts of the southern hemisphere will mean and a cold and snowy winter for the UK. My Long Range Forecast will be updated within the next few days.

Temperature Mean Temperature 10 °C - Max Temperature 9 °C - - () Min Temperature 7 °C - - () Degree Days Heating Degree Days 15 Moisture Dew Point 8 °C Average Humidity 89 Maximum Humidity 90 Minimum Humidity 88 Precipitation Precipitation 24.0 mm - - () Sea Level Pressure Sea Level Pressure 1006.50 hPa Wind Wind Speed 31 km/h () Max Wind Speed 43 km/h Max Gust Speed - Visibility 5.1 kilometers Events Rain , Snow http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html According to this site it snowed in Altanharra.

Yes hopefully the summits of the mountains will be all white tommorow. It certainly has been a very autumnal and to an extent "wintry" day over the North. I am quite interested to see how cold it gets in Aviemore and Altnaharra because snow could fall at quite low levels and perhaps some wintriness in the settlements of Strathspey.

An incredibly cold day up in Altnaharra with temps failing to rise above 9c!. With night time still to come perhaps there could be more in the way of sleet and snow in either Altnaharra or Aviemore that currently sits at 7c! I'll check the met office observations tomorrow morning to see if snow has fallen up there. Aviemore is still at 6.6c and many other places are at 7c. Temperatures should drop in the 4c region (or below) and there is still some preciptation in the region. I would say the Aviemore is still the best bet for snow during the night as the low pressure leaves Altnaharra and Aviemore is already at a distinctly chilly 6.6c. It really has been more of a November day up there rather than late August! Autumn has well and truly begun and so has the snow season!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/he/altnaharra_latest_weather.html Take a look at Altnaharra at 7pm. Sleet was reported!!!!!!! If a single snow flake had fallen then we are looking at the first Snowfall of the Winter in any UK Town. Last year I joined Netweather and posted about how the first snow arrived in Altnaharra on September 27th. If it had snowed or a single wet flake had fallen then we should celebrate. First Snow, First ramp for a cold and snow winter!

Currently around 7c in many settlements in the Highlands. We may see temps drop below 3c and any shower in the area could bring snow down to quite low levels. Keep an eye out for an outside bet of first settlement snowfall of the winter! 6.6c in Aviemore at 8pm. Hopefully below 3c or 2c by morning are really hopefully below freezing with a wee shower of snow! From the Scotland Regional Discussion Thread: Doctormog "I see that Altnaharra was reporting sleet at 7pm . Surely some mistake?" If there was sleet in Altnaharra there would surely have to be some snow flakes. Therefore, if that's the case, we are looking at the first Snowfall of the Winter in Any Settlement on August 28th 2011. Last year it was around September 27th when I started my first topic on how snow was reported in Altnaharra. There's still time to see if we do get a confirmed snowfall so fingers crossed for a definite First Snowfall of the Winter!

Yes Falkirk is in quite a decent position for snow and better than my location. Not until the past three winters have we seen snow events smashing the central belt.

An incredible red sky over Glasgow right now.

Christmas Day 2010 started off bitterly cold here in Glasgow with temps sub -10c. However during the early hours an area of showers arrived and brought snow showers which dumped a few cm and also meant another white christmas. I remember spending some of my time in the morning watching radar and temperatures and couldn't help resist worrying over 6c temperatures in Tiree. Then came the showers and despite temperatures still below freezing, the precipitation fell as rain. The thaw was on and I was no longer interested in the prospect of further snow as I travelled to see family in Argyll. I believe that the area of showers that initially brought snow to Scotland on Xmas Morning managed to raise upper temperatures and therefore cause a thaw. Considering temps had been below -4c for many, many day, for the temperature to rise to 0c to -2c seemed like the end of the Big Freeze. My first question is, if that area of low pressure had never arrived in Scotland or failed to bring temperatures up, would we have seen an incredible battleground snowfall on Boxing Day with an incoming front meeting very cold air. If there had been a battleground snowfall, we would have experienced an extra 10-30cm of snow ontop of depths of 5-20cm. However, there are other factors that may influence the final outcome but I believe if the slushy breakdown event over Scotland had never happened, I believe conditions would be favourable for one helluva snowfall. Although the Big Freeze had ended in Scotland on Boxing Day, some parts of England and Wales were still under pretty cold air. However, a forecast that warned of yet another battleground snowfall completely failed to materialise. During the past two winters, we have seen incredible Big Freezes, however this historic events came to an unispiring end with a strange breakdown on January 13/14 2010 and Christmas 2010. During each of those cold spells, I hoped and expected a dramatic end to the cold spells. I was very surprised when the 2009/2010 big freeze came to uneventful end, however in December 2010 I really expected a dramatic end. I'd like to know why our Big Freeze's never had a proper battleground snowfall and why so many promised battleground snowfall events came to nothing. It just makes you wonder how December 2010 would have ended and of course how long January 2010 would have lasted as the breakdown was not forecast at all and the Big Freeze was set to continue.

Cheggers - Bonnybridge, Falkirk - 105cm 4wd - North York Moors - 60cm Terminal Moraine - Derbyshire Peak District - 50cm sunny scunny - Scunny - 45cm Isolated Frost - Picktree, Durham - 42cm Norrance - Dundee - 40cm jack frost - Nelson, South Wales - 37cm Norrance - Aberfeldy, Perthshire - 35cm aaron - Leeds - 25cm Deep Snow - Bridgend, South East Wales - 25cm Blizzards - Stourbridge, West Midlands - 25cm A Winter's Tale - Dunbartonshire - 25cm damianslaw - Windermere - 12cm Michael Prys-Roberts - Yatton, Bristol - 10.5cm snow? norfolk n chance - Wildwood, Stafford - 9cm damianslaw - Kendal - 6cm Ben_Cambs - Cambridge - 3cm