A Winter's Tale

Earliest: November Latest: May Earliest Lying: November Latest Lying: March Warmest Temperature for Snow: 6c

[quote name='Radiating Dendrite' timestamp='1313500339'] Which one next then? Cairngorms? [/quote] Well I'm starting off with the easiest ones so either Ben Lomond, The Cairnwell or Arrochar Alps.

Hopes for Autumn: September: Warm to start with - wet middle - cold end with first frost. October: Storms at very begining - sunny and warm - storm - sunny and cold - storm - frosty nights to end November: Calm, cold, crisp beginning - stormy middle - cold and quite snowy end.

Yes we may be mid way through August, however with such a poor and short summer and an early start to Autumn on the cards I can't resist thinking about Autumn and frosts. So with the best of summer likely to be behind us now, I have started this thread regarding frosts around the country and of course your first Frost. Already, we have had Frosts to start of the session 2011-2012 so lets keep a look out for cold nights, low temps and for when the first widespread frost will arrive. I seem to remember last year that September had a decent chilly spell with a low of -4.4c in Tyndrum. Will we see a repeat of that? So Here are the lows to beat: July - Lowest -2.5 with -0.8c in 2011. August: -4.5C September: - 6.7C October: -11.7C November: -23.3C December: -27.2C January: -27.2C February: -27.2C March: -22.8C April: -15.0C May: -9.4C June: -5.6C

New Zealand is currently facing a very significant cold spell with some areas experiencing a once in 80 years event. Here are some articles regarding the snow: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2026146/New-Zealands-North-Island-sees-snow-fall-40-years.html?ito=feeds-newsxml http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/15/new-zealand-snow-heaviest-years http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903392904576511214055411054.html?mod=googlenews_wsj Quite significant stuff and it may continue for a few more days yet. To my knowledge, parts of South America had a harsh winter (or harsh periods of winter weather). I would like to know who severe or notable a winter it has been in the southern hemishphere and what other significant moments during the winter. Was last winter and the year before quite severe too in the southern Hemisphere and do winters down there reflect what we might get up here?

Although it is still mid August, it certainly feels that summer finished a long time ago. Even during settled and sunny spells it feels cold and fresh. By Mid September we should be well and truly into the grip of Autumn. We will see storms this autumn and we will see some signs of cold aswell as warm.

MUNRO NAME: CARN AOSDA DATE CLIMBED: 15/8/11 HEIGHT: 3009 FT, 917 M MOUNTAIN REGION: THE CAIRNWELL MOUNTAINS (GLENSHEE) COUNCIL: ABERDEENSHIRE TIME TAKEN: 1.5 HOURS LOG: CARN AOSDA IS OFFICIALLY MY FIRST MUNRO OUT OF THE 284 MIGHTY MOUNTAINS OVER 3000FT IN SCOTLAND. LOCATED NEAR THE GLENSHEE SKI CENTRE CAR PARK, IT IS A 580M ASCENT TO THE SUMMIT, SO A PRETTY EASY CLIMB TO ARGUABLY SCOTLAND'S EASIEST MUNRO. ALL IN ALL THE WALK WAS QUITE EASY UNTIL A LONG AND STRENUOS, STEEP CLIMB UP THE FACE OF THE MOUNTAIN TOWARDS THE SUMMIT. I WAS QUITE FAST UP UNTIL THAT POINT SO I NEEDED A FEW BREAKS. HOWEVER ONCE THAT TOUGH PART WAS OVER, IT WAS JUST AN EASY STROLL TOWARDS THE SUMMIT WHICH WAS LITTERED WITH STONES. THE FEELING OF REACHING THE SUMMIT WAS THAT OF TRUIMPH, WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT I'VE JUST CLIMBED ONE OUT OF THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS IN SCOTLAND. WEATHER VIEW: IT WAS GENERALLY A NICE, SUNNY DAY ON THE WAY UP TO GLENSHEE. THERE WERE A FEW VERY HEAVY SHOWERS AROUND PERTHSHIRE, HOWEVER IT CLEARED UP NICELY ONCE WE WERE ON OUR WAY TO THE GLEN. THERE WASN'T MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIND UNTIL THE SUMMIT WHERE IT WAS QUITE STRONG. WITH THE SUN ON IT'S WAY TO BED, THE AIR TEMPERATURE WAS COLD AND IT CERTAINLY DIDN'T FEEL LIKE SUMMER. FROM THE SUMMIT YOU COULD SEE DARK, STORM CLOUDS BEING BLOWN TOWARDS THE CAIRNGORM MOUNTAINS. VIEW: THE BEST VIEWS FROM THE SUMMIT OF THE MUNRO, WERE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. TO THE EAST WERE THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF GLENSHEE AND ANGUS SO YOU COULDN'T SEE PAST THEM. TO THE WEST WAS A VIEW OVER HIGHLAND PERTHSHIRE/ABERDEENSHIRE WITH A VIEW OF A SCOTTISH LOCH. TO THE SOUTH, YOU LOOKED DOWN THE GLEN AND COULD SEE THE LOWLANDS AND STRATHMORE BATHING IN LATE EVENING SUNSHINE. TO THE NORTH, THE VIEW WAS FANTASTIC, LOOKING AT THE CAIRNGORM MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF ABERDEENSHIRE. A WINTER'S TALE...

That looks nice! I do feel that we will see a notably cold month this winter and I feel we are likely to see this early in the winter, just as how Spring arrived early, summer arrived very early and Autumn arrived early - I really do feel that by the end of November it will feel positively wintry. On the other hand we may see January or February being the cold month rather than December so who knows. The intensity and how prolonged any signifcant cold spell(s) is another matter. What I would like to see this time round is two very cold months. Preferably, I would like to see a major cold spell starting in early to mid December and lasting towards the New Year, with a mixture of weather following for the half - two thirds of the month before another signifcant cold spell arrives and lasts into February. The probability of a cold spell among the lines of something between Feb 2009 and Dec 2010 is pretty likely in my opinion. The question is what the winter will be as a whole? Will the remainder be mild; a bit of cold and mild; or cold? If Anyone who has got stats, fact and historical data could post something about two (or more) sub zero months in one winter; two or more notable - brief or prolonged cold spells and to compare it to below average winters, months etc, the frequency and gaps between winters... It would be interesting to find out - although the chances of this winter having two major cold spells isn't anywhere near as likely as the one.

I would imagine that the Drumochter Pass, Strathspey, Southern and Eastern Grampians would get large amount of snow. However, I expect the region of Highland council overall to have smaller snow depths than Eastern Areas due to the Mountains and Geographical Position. If less than a third of that region had snow depths comparable or greater than Angus, you would have take the other two thirds of land into count and the Highland region is a massive area. Anyway, my forecast is just for fun based on my instincts and interpetation of recent weather patterns and factors.

A Winter's Tale Long Range Forecast Warning: December 2011 Maximum Snow Depths in December: Key: Yellow = 5-10cm Light Orange = 10-15cm Dark Orange = 15-20cm Red = 25-30cm Dark Redish = 30-40cm Black = 40cm+ My opinion is very likely to change between now and then however at the moment I feel with the likelyhood of northern blocking to happen after a periods of atlantic lows during the autumn is quite likely. The map shows northern and eastern areas most likely to be hit by frequent and heavy snow showers. The further south and west you are the less likely to be hit by snow showers. Although my forecast for January is issued next month, I will have a shot at a brief summery of January and February: Winter 2011/2012: DEC 2011: Well Below Average temperatures and heavy snow at times. Two significant and prolonged cold spells. JAN 2012: Slightly Below Average and Below Average for northern and eastern places. Milder to begin with before another significant cold snap arrives. Perhaps some more sharp cold snaps inbetween milder spells later on. FEB 2012: Average to slightly below average. A very dry month after a wet and cool January. A relatively significant cold snap during the first third of the month. High Pressure to dominate most of the month. Some significant battleground snowfalls in Scotland to finish the winter.

The rain han't been as bad as I first thought (or what the BBC have tried to make it seem).

Can someone explain what that chart is showing (regardless of how pointless and far out it is).

A bit of science and a bit of instinct/intuition and observing current and past conditions/patterns is the ticket to having a well balanced forecast.

WEATHER DATA FOR PAST DECADE OR SO: YEAR: 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 AUTUMN: 10.44 9.80 9.53 9.95 10.38 11.39 9.94 9.12 10.32 8.86 WINTER: 4.53 3.99 4.35 4.71 3.85 5.56 4.86 3.21 1.63 2.43 DIFF: +/- 0 -0.64 -0.27 +0.42 +0.43 +1.10 -1.45 -0.82 +1.20 -1.46 +/- 0 -0.54 +0.36 +0.36 -0.86 +1.71 -0.70 -1.65 -1.58 +0.80 Just some ideas: Mildest winter followed mildest autumn. Second coldest winter followed coldest autumn. I guess we need to wait and see.

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html An update from James Madden. 7th August 2011 Update Summer 2011 – Recap to date June 2011 June turned out to be very wet and unsettled across the UK. Rainfall was largely above average, with many areas seeing more than 150% of their normal rainfall amounts, including drought hit eastern areas. June was also the coldest in the UK for 10 years, with Northern Ireland experiencing their coolest June in 25 years. The mean Central England Temperature (CET) data for June was -0.4C below average. July 2011 July also turned out to be relatively wet and unsettled across many parts of the UK. Certain parts of England and Scotland received 200% of their normal rainfall amounts, with rainfall amounts elsewhere more near average overall. July was also the coldest in the UK for over 10 years, with minimum temperature resulting in the coldest July across the UK in over 30 years. The minimum Central England Temperature (CET) data had a significant anomaly of -1.1C. Although it has felt more pleasant at times with less rainless days during July in certain regions, the mean Central England Temperature (CET) data for July was -0.8C below average. Other long range forecasters failed to consider the intensity of the rainfall when it occurred or the minimum temperature, just as they will underestimate the intensity of snowfall and below average temperatures this winter. Grey Skies Many regions across the UK have also experienced notable grey skies due to above average cloud cover, as I originally forecast. I expect this trend to continue as I have outlined many times, due to the low levels of solar activity that we have experienced in recent years. Original Forecast I originally issued my UK summer forecast on the 30th January this year, well in advance of any other forecaster worldwide. It read “Summer 2011†“It would be adequate to suggest below average temperatures in terms of how I calculate solar activity in my forecasts, so it looks like a summer of grey skies and damp weather, and it's probably safe to say that there will be no BBQ summer again this yearâ€. I also issued a warning for torrential downpours and severe flooding. Summer 2011 Publications I provided the Sunday Sun and Chronicle with my 2011 UK summer forecast in early April which read “But, sun worshippers have been warned to make the most of the hot weather as long range forecasters say the outlook for summer is gloomy. James Madden said judging by solar activity and the current ocean atmosphere, the UK could see more rain and a dip in temperatures in June, July, and August. He said: “based on the factors covered, the summer as a whole could unfortunately be colder than average with above average rainfall. “In my opinion, odds of a barbecue summer this year are slim.†http://www.sundaysun.co.uk/news/north-east-news/2011/04/10/north-east-makes-the-most-of-the-lovely-weather-79310-28487833/ http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/north-east-news/evening-chronicle-news/2011/04/09/tyneside-is-in-for-a-scorcher-of-a-weekend-72703-28487268/ August will have to show a major improvement to avoid a cold and wet UK summer this year. As it stands at present with more unsettled weather in store, a colder than average summer with above average rainfall is looking extremely likely as I originally forecast. The torrential downpours and severe flooding that we have seen in early August, have already seen parts of Yorkshire receive more than one month's rainfall in just 12 hours. Parts of north-east England and Northern Ireland also experienced severe conditions due to localised flooding, with further flood alerts also put in place across Northern England and Scotland. http://uk.news.yahoo.com/northern-england-put-flood-alert-104014593.html http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/aug/04/flash-floods-yorkshire-torrential-rain http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2011/08/08/woman-dies-as-floods-batter-scotland-and-the-north-115875-23327860/ La Niña Watch – Update The Climate Prediction Center recently issued a ENSO alert system status for a (La Niña Watch). I clearly stated in March and May of this year that “NOAA predictions give a 50% chance that La Niña conditions will be all but gone by June 2011. I personally feel that this prediction is wrong and once again way underestimated, hence my future flood warnings.†“Recent NOAA predictions give a 50% chance that La Niña will have completely disappeared by June 2011. However, I am not convinced that it will completely disappear. Recent indicators may suggest neutral conditions for the season ahead, but it is also important to take forecast accuracy into consideration for this time of year and the current phase of PDO. The possibility of La Niña redeveloping will become clearer over the next few months.†Strictly this is true, as atmospheric circulation anomalies still reflect aspects of La Niña. The subsurface oceanic heat content in the upper parts of the equatorial pacific continued to weaken (FIG.1) with strengthening subsurface anomalies in the east-central pacific (FIG.2), hence the La Niña watch that has been issued. Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Drift As expected, it is still clearly visible to see from present day NOAA satellite images that no improvements have been offered in regards to the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic drift. The surface horizontal current (0m in depth) should be more comparable to the image in (FIG.3 – August 2009) below than (FIG.4 – August 2011), in order for the UK and Western Europe to benefit from this valuable heat source. I clearly stated in early August 2010 that “the strength of the current seemed to be in a position that would no longer feed towards the UK or Northern Europe, due to a breakage that appeared in the gulf loop currentâ€. I have also clearly stated in many of my posts that “if nothing improved soon in regards to the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic drift, that this would begin to alter the climate of the UK, especially more so in winterâ€. Even at depths of (100m) nothing improves in (FIG.5) below. This is especially important if we compare this to the surface horizontal current of (0m) in 2009 in (FIG.3) below. Solar Activity One of the main factors I have strongly emphasised on within my forecasts, is my thesis on future levels of low solar activity. 31st January 2011 Geomagnetic activity is minimal, this will result in extra cloud cover and alter temperatures, with further repercussions of prolonged periods of low solar activity in the future, that could see sunspots vanish. 15th November 2010 The will also have future effects on further periods of prolonged low solar activity. 19th September 2010 This has future effects on further periods of low solar activity, which means more spotless days and more prolonged periods of low solar activity. Recent scientific research from the National Solar Observatory (NSO), strongly indicate that the next 11 year solar cycle, will be greatly reduced or may not happen at all. Although some sunspots are visible at present (FIG.6), solar activity is minuscule in comparison to what it should be and according to all NASA's predictions to date. I stated in April 2009 that “David Hathaway is a well respected solar physicist for NASA, who recently reported that there was nothing wrong with the sun on the highly respected NASA website. He stated that the average length of a solar cycle is 131 months with a standard deviation of 14 months. In October 2008 this was 145 months and the standard deviation of 14 months was officially over, which means we are now 6 months (April 2009) outside of his prediction. Although Hathaway suggests that the current solar cycle does not worry him, anticipating many more spotless days before a return to solar max conditions in around 2012? His theories appear very confusing for a scientist who has claimed to of cracked the suns conveyor belt as far back as 1890.†Since then NASA and Hathaway have admitted that they were wrong about their predictions in a new scientist article in June 2010. Hathaway also recently stated that we will not reach the 150-200 sunspots as they predicted in 2006, we will instead be heading for a drastic decline that will place us in the lowest sunspot cycle in centuries. As I have stated before this will have future repercussions on further periods of prolonged low solar activity. The low solar activity that we have experienced in recent years, will once again influence the pattern of the jet stream this winter due to the cooling of the stratosphere. This will block warm air from reaching the UK and create more moisture in terms of snowfall. When high pressure builds towards Greenland (Greenland High) this allows extremely cold easterlies or north-easterlies to develop. Combined with the other factors that I have covered, this will result in an early start to winter with prolonged periods of cold and widespread heavy snowfall that will see many parts of Scotland/Scottish Highlands, Northern Ireland, North-east England, and Northern England get particularly hard hit throughout. I still expect to see records broken with widespread disruption from snowfall that will once again be hugely underestimated by others. FIG.6 NASA (7th Aug 2011) I posted this satellite image back in January 2010 below (FIG.7) and stated that “this is most probably a taste of our near future in the UK.†Then this happened in December 2010, only 11 months later (FIG. I will not be surprised when I can post another satellite image similar to these for the 2011-2012 UK winter. Our Winter 2011-2012 Publications Here we have links to what must be the earliest ever publications in regards to an upcoming UK winter below. Maybe this tells us all something? http://www.strathspey-herald.co.uk/News/No-sun-and-a-severe-weather-warning-21062011.htm http://www.derryjournal.com/news/local/expert_warns_arctic_winters_on_the_way_1_2826532 http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/climate-news/severe-weather-warning-issued-for-winter-2011-12/20748.html http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/the-northerner/2011/jun/22/winter-forecast-sharrow-bay-miller-howe-tesco-stockton-on-tees-campaign-for-wool http://www.naturalnews.com/033178_radical_weather_extremes.html http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/13/idUS77740+13-Jun-2011+BW20110613 And finally here is some food for thought to leave you all with. The Met Office is to be investigated by MPs following the outcry over the barbecue summer and continuing questions over climate change. The Met office has also come under extreme scrutiny after handing out up to £1.5 million in bonuses, yet they don't issue long range forecasts? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/8648215/MPs-inquiry-into-Met-Office.html Please feel free to check any of the statements that I have made previously within my past forecasts/blog.

Yes Autumn has certainly arrived here with leaves changing colour and a quite a few are on the ground. I'd like to add that the light, air temperature and freshness also feel positively autumnal. At the moment I can only see a few periods of decent weather left this month though the North should continue to be in autumn. However, you can't rule out some decent weather in September.

Great morning with plenty of blue in the sky. I do agree that this is a very autumnal sunny morning and not like your typical August morning.

Unfortuantly I didn't have a forecast for last winter however I did somehow feel that something relatively significant may occur during that winter.

Updated PWS Extreme Long Range Forecast - UK: DECEMBER 2011: COLDER than the Average. On the average or drier than average for MOST parts, BAR Nothern Ireland, Scotland, Northern England and Ireland. White Christmas - 33% JANUARY 2012: COLDER than average GENERALLY. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER than average for SCOTLAND and NORTH EAST ENGLAND. Drier than average for many areas, BAR SCOTLAND and NORTH EAST ENGLAND. FEBRUARY 2012: COLDER than average. ESPECIALLY early month. WETTER than average for much of SCOTLAND, NOTHERN IRELAND, IRELAND, NOTHERN ENGLAND and MIDLANDS. *************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** A forecast to only be taken by a pinch of salt however it makes for quite interesting reading. Now it's time for A Winter's Tale first look at the weather over the coming Months: A WINTER'S TALE FORECAST - VERSION 1 - 7/8/2011 AUGUST 2011: Following a period of settled/warm conditions, the UK should be under the influence of Low Pressure coming from the west. This should bring windy and wet weather across the UK for about a week. The hardest hit areas should be much of Scotland, parts of Northern England and Northern Ireland. The Midlands should be overcast aswell as parts of eastern coasts and Northern parts of Wales. Much of the South and East should remain fairly settled and dry however the South West may be at risk of some heavy rain. Following this unsettled spell we should see a calmer and warmer spell of weather arriving from the South/East. Much of Southern and Eastern England, Southern Wales and Eastern Scotland should benefit from sunshine and pleasant temperatures whereas western areas of England and Wales and SW Scotland may be at risk of rain and cloud cover though the Highlands of Scotland will vary with some days of prolonged rain and some days of wall-wall sunshine. Unsettled South Westerly winds should follow the calmer spell. This will bring rain and wind to all parts though NW England and Scotland will hold onto the rain longer than other regions. There should be some showery spells and sunshine inbetween fronts. SEPTEMBER 2011: The month will begin with a brief warm spell with temperatures of 20c-26c in the South and East of England and temps of 15c-23c in other regions. The NW Highlands should hold onto extensive low cloud cover. The Atlantic will intervene and bring extensive and heavy rainfall to all parts with notably heavy rain for parts of Scotland and Northern England. There could be a risk of flooding and it will feel positively autumnal with temps of 9c-13c under overcast skies and high winds. After an unsettled period, High pressure should prevail and eventually bring a spell of summery weather to much of the UK. Widespread sunshine and temps around the high teens to mid twenties for most parts. Cloud cover only restricted to Eastern coasts and some upland areas. The High Pressure will eventually move to a position that will bring slighly cooler conditions, albeit sunny. Winds will strenghen and there may be a slight touch of frost under clear skies in rural areas. Winds will turn to more of northerly which will bring plenty of showers under a fresh wind. By Day, temperatures will be pleasant however by night we may see some cold temperatures and some frost. Some showers may be wintry on the highest Scottish peaks. OCTOBER 2011: A Polar maritime theme will replace the nothernly airstream and bring unsettled conditions with plenty of showers, cloud cover and low pressure systems. Expect strong winds and some flooding. Yet again High pressure will begin to dominate and the UK will be under an easterly/south easterly air stream. This may bring some warm temperatures to the South East, however the UK should enjoy extensive sunshine. There may be some frost by night in Scotland. The period following the settled conditions will see a mixture of two or three (or maybe more) days of settled conditions, followed by one or two days of unsettled Atlantic dominated conditions followed by cloud cover moving west to east before settled conditions prevail again. Some periods of settled/unsettled conditions may be longer than others. It will feel positively autumnal. The last few days of October should see a front leaving the UK with some fog and cloud cover following behind and a clear/cloudy and cool Halloween night could be possible. NOVEMBER 2011: Simular to October, there will be days of settled conditions, days of low pressure then cloud/fog before the UK is under a brief period of either NW, N, NE winds. The first few days will see one or two low pressure systems passing over the UK, leaving the country under more settled albeit cooler conditions for Bonfire Night 2011. Folllowing Bonfire Night, there should be a few settled days. There may be some showers and these could be wintry in some nothern areas. The atlantic may appear once more. Following a burst of activity from the atlantic, just before mid month we will see the UK under a brief cold spell. Temperatures may range from 1c in some highland areas to 9c in the SW. A Low pressure system from the west will end the cold spell however there could be some battleground snowfalls - most likely in nothern areas. A few days of showery conditions and local prolonged cloud cover will dominate most of the UK although some areas such as local Highland spots, S Wales, S England and London may escape such conditions. Throughout most of November, a cold pool had developed over parts of Northern and Eastern Europe. Like much of the summer/spring High pressure will develop either: over greenland; over the atlantic; to the north; to the east. During the last third/quarter of the month, the UK will be under an easterly/north easterly airstream with the wind in NE Scotland originating from Scandinavia/Siberia and the wind in E Scotland/ England originating from the Baltics, Southern Scandinavia and Central/Eastern Europe. The UK will see temperatures dropping each day and there will be frost by night everwhere. However eastern parts of the UK will be hardest hit by snow showers and there should be some decent accumilations to begin with. Southern England and Central Scotland will also suffer occasionally from heavy, persistent snow showers from the east. During the last quarter of the month the cold spell should intensify with temperatures not rising above freezing for many areas and night time temperatures to begin with dropping to somewhere between -2c in the warmest urban areas to -15c (or below) in Highland Scotland however day by day the temperatures will drop and -20c may be hit before the month is out and temps of -5c to -10c may become a common occurance during the night. However the east of the UK will bear the brunt of the snow with much of NE England, E/NE/C Scotland being worst hit although there will be days of crisp, winter sunshine with flurries. The north of Scotland may be under more of a NNE wind later on and Northern Ireland/W Scotland may be under a northerly wind with snow showers. These showers may emerge to become more persistent and widespread in the Irish Sea to affect parts of Wales and SW England. DECEMBER 2011: The first 5-10 days of December will see the UK to continuing to be in an intense cold spell with severe frosts by night and snowfalls. Snowfalls will vary with eastern/central parts of England/Scotland have heavy snow showers one day/ then only a few flurries the next. However when it's not snowing we can expect very cold temperatures by day with some places not rising above -7c. The focus point of the snow will change each day as each region will have their shot of the snow. Night time temperatures will be around -4c (in the warmest cities) to -25c in the coldest rural areas of Scotland. After a period of widespread snow showers across all parts, the UK will eventually be under a more settled spell will prevail with clear skies under a NE wind with some flurries. However it will be incredibly cold with day time temperatures not even rising above -5c for most parts and -20c will become more common by night (and not only in rural parts of Scotland). Towards the end of the period the activity of showers will increase once again. The cold spell over the UK will lose its intestity as High pressure moves slightly and winds come from more of a southerly and for some parts SE/SW. This will raise temperatures a bit (particulary for the south) however the north of Scotland should remain the cold conditions. This period will see little in the way of precipiation with only occasional drizzle, otherwise it will be dry and clear. However whilst the UK is under a slightly less cold period of weather, the core of cold will remain over Scandinavia, Eastern/Central Europe. This will grow into an even more intesne cold spell that will eventually breakthrough and reach the UK. After snow depths exceeded 40cm in Eastern parts with 30cm recorded in some central areas, there was only 5-25cm of snow left after a less cold period. However the southerly airstream would be pushed westwards as high pressure rises in Nothern Scandinavia and the Greenland high re-astablishes itself again. For the first few days, daytime temperatures will be chilly with frost by night. However, like the last cold spell, it will get colder and colder day by day - only this time it will become more propminent. Sometime around the 17th, the UK will see the first snow showers arriving in SE England. Daytime temps of 1c to -4c to begin with and night time temps of -3c to -12c. Like the last cold spell, Scotland will bear the brunt of the snow only this time its worse with snow showers travelling over the mountains and affecting some western highland and island areas. Northern Ireland will also benefit from the easterly airstream with snow showers passed on from central scotland. Like the last cold spell, it won't be persistent snow showers every day, there will be a variety in snowfall. Southern/Central England and Wales is also more likely to be affected in this cold spell with some heavy and large areas of snowfalls from the continent/north sea picking up intestity over the channel. This could bring some prolonged and exceptionally widespread snowfall over the southern half of the UK. There will be some quiter days in terms of snowfall, however the cold will become more intense on clear days with temps not rising above -10c in some areas and temps of -15c to -25c will become far more common. On the days before Christmas, the UK will see a variety of conditions with a blizzard in the moring (or night) with a mostly sunny day with flurries and a night with some showers (or vice versa). I expect everwhere to see some snow, however any snowfall will come from large areas of precipiation followed by periods of winter sunshine with some flurries. To sum it up it will be a mixture of sunshine, flurries and heavy snow each day. Temperatures will reach their coldest. Christmas should see the same them with periods of large, widespread showers crossing the country followed by sparkling wintry sunshine. After Christmas, some atlantic fronts may reach the channel and spread as far north as the midlands before clearing into the Netherlands. This will bring very heavy snowfall for a time and add to any present accumilations. Snow showers will continue for NE England and Scotland though the theme should be more settled but bitterly cold. Eventually, things may warm up a touch in the south with a thaw though the cold will remain in nothern areas. For the New Year, an atlantic front will engulf the UK and bring widespread snowfall. MY FORECAST FOR JANUARY WILL BE ISSUED NEXT MONTH ASWELL AS AN UPDATE FOR THE OTHER MONTHS. A Winter's Tale

Positive Weather Solutions have update their rather extreme long range outlook: DECEMBER 2011: On the average temperature wise. Slightly wetter than average in all parts bar Wales, Central and Southern England. JANUARY 2012: COLDER than Average generally. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER than average for SCOTLAND. Slightly WETTER than average for SCOTLAND and NORTH EAST ENGLAND. FEBRUARY 2012: COLDER than Average. Slightly wetter than average for Scotland and North East England. A long way off but it doesn't sound too bad. Preferably I would like to see freezing conditions arriving just before Christmas and lasting into January with some cold snaps earlier on in December. For temperatures to be SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER than average for Scotland would suggest a relatively extreme cold snap and for precipitation to be higher than average for North East England and Scotland suggests that an easterly.

Personally I would prefer most of the action to happen in December though it can really spoil some people's holiday plans (aswell as make them). So one month of severe cold (a la December 2010) during the winter would be nice (preferably December though if that isn't possible I would like a period of pretty cold and snowy weather during that month). For the rest of the winter I would like a mix of storms, rain, sunshine, frost, fog, potent short cold snaps and battleground snowfalls. However lets be realistic and look towards this winter: It looks like the Blocking Pattern has been quite dominant in weather patterns recently though I wonder if we have used most of up with this current summer. However this summer is following the pattern of the previous few years with a decent spring followed by a poor summer with a cold winter. In each of the past few seasons we have seen a prolonged period of this blocking pattern so there is no reason suggest that it will not happen during the upcoming winter. In the past month or so I have posted my opinion about the upcoming winter so there is no need for me to repeat myself but I do stress that this winter could end up being anything ranging from a near mess winter to a jackpot winter. With the way things have been going recently I would quite confidently say that I don't see a winter that has no significant cold snaps. In my opinion I would say that sometime this winter we may see something significant and it could be a Feb 2009 or a Dec 2010. This year I have a feeling that we will experience another nationwide cold snap with severity ranging from 2-10cm nationwide for less than a week to 10-40cm nationwide for 2 or more weeks in either December or February. So that's my verdict, It's winter so expect something cold and snowy along the way and therefore prepare for it. I would just like to add that I have found that during the past few years, December has been quite a cold month or a month that has seen something in the way of cold. Though I'd like to know if there is any scientific or meterological evidence or theory to suggest/explain why December is becoming more of a colder month.

A few rumbles of thunder with no lightning and it's probably coming from the W/NW.

Forecast issued by A Winter's Tale at 1411 hours: Spring: Day 1: MORNING - A Calm start to the day with blue skies everywhere. Temperature of 12c. NOON/AFTERNOON - A Warm day with very little breeze and no cloud cover and a temperature of 18c. EVENING/NIGHT - Still clear with temperatures lowering to around 14c and then to a minimum of 8c. Day 2: MORNING - Prolonged Rain arrives from the west followed by heavy, frequent showers driven by a strong north westerly wind. Temperature of 10c. NOON/AFTERNOON - Predomiantely pleasant with occasional showers with some hail. Temperatures maxing at 16c with light breeze. EVENING/NIGHT - A cold front arrives from NNW that brings light rain. Clear skies and cold temperatures once the front passes. Minimum temperature of 3c. Day 3: MORNING - A cold start to the day with some developing frost in places under clear skies and no wind. Temperature of 4c. NOON/AFTERNOON - Predominately clear and calm with the odd shower. Still cold with maximum temperatures of 7c. EVENING/NIGHT - A cold, crisp night with a widespread frost developing under a potent northerly wind, bringing some showers. Minimum temperature of -4c. Day 4: MORNING - A very cold morning with sunshine and wintry showers. Icy surfaces with some accumulitaing snow has forced the Met Office to issue a CODE Yellow warning. Temperature of -1c. NOON/AFTERNOON - A Cold day with frequent snow showers giving accumilations up to 2cm (though clearing by 2pm). Max temp of 1c. EVENING/NIGHT -A Bitterly cold evening to begin with clear skies and freezing temperatures. However a massive front from the west brings massive frontal snowfall. Accumilations up to 40cm and Met Office CODE Red Warning. -2c Day 5: MORNING - After a cold and snowy start, things begin to bright up with clear skies all around under a pleasant breeze. Temperature of 3c with a slow thaw of lying snow. Avoid travelling. NOON/AFTERNOON - A fantastic afternoon with clear skies and warm sunshine. Temperatures of 10c with snow depths of less than 20cm. EVENING/NIGHT - Still clear with temperatures of 3c. Snow depths of less than 10cm. Day 6: MORNING - A brief warm front passes over bringing some rain. However fine, clear and warm conditions follow the rain. Snow depths of 5cm and temperatures of 6c. NOON/AFTERNOON - A pleasant day with temperatures of 16c and little breeze with sunshine. Remaining snow cover dissapearing under warm conditions. EVENING/NIGHT - A cool night with no breeze. Minimum temperatures of 6c. Day 7: MORNING - Another fantastic morning with warm sunshine and temperatures of >13c. A light breeze with little cloud cover. NOON/AFTERNOON - A warn day with temperatures exceeding 20c and very little wind. EVENING/NIGHT - A cooler end to the day with temperatures of 13c with continuing sunshine. A Winter's Tale will issue his 7 day Summer;Autumn; Winter forecast later.

The thing that I hate most about summer is that you can't get to sleep during airless nights. That's today ruined.

I Can't fall asleep tonight. Recently I've been awake to 3am and then sleep until about 12pm. It's currently 4am and I've been awake for more than 16 hours. Hopefully this isn't too bad for my body.