A Winter's Tale

North Sea snow machine at work http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_ir.html

BBC News 24 forecast - very good for much of Scotland on Friday night and Saturday with plenty of snow showers coming off the north sea.

Good evening all. It's been another cold day and the good news is that the cold weather looks like continuing into next week, keeping things seasonal, prolonging the risk of snow and the duration of the whole spell could end up being pretty impressive. I'm dissapointed that the front doesn't seem like it will end up bringing much snow to Scotland if any, but there could be a few flurries overnight and eastern areas should enjoy snow showers. Having said that, right now I am glad that it isn't currently snowmageddon as my gran needed to be taken to hospital with an issue with her pancreas. I wouldn't be surprised if western and central Scotland ends up having little or no lying snow compared to much of the UK but I remain hopefull that some snow showers in the easterly will make their way through and possibly when the next 'breakdown' comes next week then thre could be more snow. Certaintly, this part of the UK is having a little difficulty in getting lying snow in this spell.

Red Warning for snow in South Wales

Black line -eastern edge of front on GFS 18Z Brown line - eastern edge of front on GFS 12Z Pink ine -eastern edge of front on NAE Blue line - western edge of front from BBC for Saturday BBC have updated forecast - http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

For now I'll put my faith into the Met Office/BBC and for the models to fall in line with a more widespread snowfall for Scotland. Tomorrow should be a crucial day - will the Met and BBC backtrack or as IF says, will the GFS track back.

BBC Forecast - shows snow across southern and western Scotland and Friday - skips to Saturday and the band stretches along the eastern side of England and I'm glad to say Scotland aswell

Tonight - for the western half of the country in particular it should be a cloudy night with the influence of a front situated around the Irish Sea - this could bring some light rain and maybe a touch of wintryness further inland a higher up to Galloway, Kintyre the islands of the Firth of Clyde and maybe affecting the hebridean islands - possibly as far north as the Isle of Mull. Possibly in some inland and higher parts of Dumfries and Galloway there could be a little bit of light snow but it won't amount to much. For Aberdeenshire, Moray, the Northern Isles, Caithness and eastern parts of the borders, here in particular in should be a clear and starry night with a frost. The coldest temperatures tonight may be recorded in one or two spots in the Borders but I'd say that the north east should see the lowest values - in the glens and around Deeside and Glenlivet it could get as low as -8C. There could also be some fog in some parts of the Grampian region. Temperatures generally in towns, typically 0 to -2C, -4C or lower in some eastern parts and a degree or two above freezing in western coastal fringes. Temperatures could be around 3 to 4C in the outer hebrides with the risk of some patches of light rain and drizzle. A similar picture for Thursday morning. A cold start, particulary in eastern areas where clear skies and cold upper air temperature should combine to create a widespread frost with low minimum values around dawn - just before 8am. Generally cloudier further west across Scotland and just a wee bit of patchy rain affecting Galloway and some of the western isles. Should be a lovely start to the day in Orkney and Shetland. For lunchtime- glorious winter sunshine may be more widespread - eastern areas in particular enjoying clear skies and possibly northern and central parts of the highlands could enjoy some sunny intervals. Possibly some sunshine for the central belt, particulary further east but generally further west it may stay generally cloudy. Some spots in the east may still be below freezing. Into the afternoon and I'm optimistic that sunshine and clear skies will be more widespread with only the south west, western end of the central belt, Argyll and some of the hebridean islands perhaps staying generally cloudy but even here there could be a few clear intervals. An ice day for a few locations, highs generally 0 to 2C, 4 to 5C in some coastal settlements and islands. Into the evening and much of the northern half and east of Scotland should have a wonderful clear, frosty evening but you can't rule out the odd shower clipping the coast of Aberdeenshire. It's more likely to be generally cloudier in Dumfries and Galloway, around the Firth of Clyde into some western parts of the central belt, parts of Argyll and Loch Lomond and Trossachs National Park and some of the hebridean islands - but Skye and Lewis/Harris could be on the clear side - but even still there should be some clear intervals here but there could be some rain for Galloway in the evening. Thursday night - another cold and frosty one with general lows of 0 to -3C, above freezing for the islands and coastal towns and villages. Dry away from Dumfries and Galloway, Arran, Kintyre, Mid-Argyll, parts of Cowal, Islay and Jura. Away from the rain and there should be clear intervals. Then we come to Friday......and it's looking interesting but details will chop and change between now and then. Since the weekend, we have a blocking high situated to our NE which has helped to bring cold air to the British Isles and we've seen some low temperatures - as low as -13C at Braemar and Aberdeen/Dyce recorded it's coldest night since the historic December of 2010. The atlantic has tried fight back but has so far failed but later this week it'll put up a better fight against the block. The chart below from GFS 12z shows this well: Block to NE, tightly packed isobars and a southerly flow across the British Isles, cold uppers in the east; milder uppers in the west. This = a battleground situation and dividing the two sides is a front - a band that would bring heavy and persistent precipitation to a widespread area. With cold surface temperatures and uppers, dew points probably favourable too then the precipitation for Scotland is most likely to be snow - away from western coasts, Galloway etc...The next problems that may not be sorted until just before it arrives is where precipitation from this front is likely to fall, how heavy the precipitation will be and where, and how long it will last. There is a general consensus across the models, NAE included that a snow event is very likely to occur in western areas - having said that it could stay dry north of the Great Glen - and most likely into the central lowlands and southern uplands, but we don't know how far east the front will get. I would confidently say, that if you those living in northern parts of Dumfries and Galloway, western parts of the Borders, much of Ayrshire away from the Firth of Clyde, most of South Lanarkshire, possibly Renfrewshire and parts of Argyll and around Loch Lomond then you should probably prepare yourself for a distruptive snowfall. Glasgow, Dunbartonshire, North Lanarkshire, a good chunk of Stirlingshire, possibly Falkirk and West Lothian should also be prepared for snowfall and probably accumilations and the possibility of significant accumilations that could be as much as 10cm or even 15cm. Further east across the Borders, Edinburgh and the rest of the Lothians, Fife, Perthsire and southern parts of the highland region - be aware that there is a risk of snow from this band edging north eastwards and it could be significant and would result in accumilations that could be distruptive - further west the higher the risk, furth east the lower the risk is. There could be some significant snowfalls for south western parts of Perthsire and Fife. For the north west highlands - parts of the Lochaber region west of the Great Glen could see some snow but it isn't likely to be significant and close to the coast and it's likely to be rain. There may be some precipitation reaching many of the islands but it would probably be rain. North of Kyle of Lochalsh and there isn't a high risk of significant snowfall. The front may not get as far north as the Cairngorms, so for Moray, Aberndeenshire, Inverness, the northern isles and much of the highlands north of the Great Glen there isn't really a risk for snow from the front for Friday but it's very far from impossible. And for Aberdeenshire, parts of Angus and Caithness with strong southeasterly winds coming off the north sea and uppers of around -6/-7C then there is a risk of convective snow showers. Ahead of the front, on Friday there could be some sunny intervals. It's likely to be a pretty cold, feeling very cold combined with the strength of the wind and with no sunshine where the front is located. Temperatures across large parts of country may only be as high as -1 to 1C, more like 2 to 4C near the coast. Keep an eye on the latest forecast - if you are in the high risk zone, my advice is not to travel unless it's important and AVOID upland routes such as M74 and the Rest and be Thankful. Friday night is particulary difficult to predict at the moment as we don't know for sure what the situation regarding the front will pan out earlier in the day. But it seems likely that precipitation, mostly in the form of snow will hang around and decay as the front stalls as it comes up against the block. During the early part of the night snow could continue to fall across the high risk areas - so that would include many areas south of the central belt and in west - but there is the possibility of snow continuing to fall across the central belt, Argyll and possibly extending a bit further north and east to affect the southern highlands, maybe the Lothians, Edinburgh, Fife, and Perthshire and possibly Angus but this remains only a possibility, not a certainty. And then there is the brisk southeasterly wind bringing convective snow showers fresh off the north sea. Much of the highlands could stay dry, maybe some clear intervals in some places and rain affecting some of the islands. A cold night but there is uncertainty regarding overnight lows, quite possibly lows could typically be -1 to -3C. Some areas 9am Friday and 6am Saturday are going to be in for a serious snowfall. The cold spell continues into Saturday, there maybe some precipitation around with the decaying front whilst in Aberdeenshire, Angus, possibly Caithness and the north sea coast of the Borders could enjoy snow showers in the easterly wind coming off the north sea so it's worth keeping an eye on that easterly flow and uppers as it will be very influential in determining the nature of the convective activity. It may be a mostly cloudy day for many but cold with highs generally 0 to 2C, 3 to 5C in some areas closer to the sea and possibly 6C in the outer hebrides. Another cold night to follow with lows of 0 to -4C, a widespread air frost but possibly a degree or two above freezing near the sea in the east, far north and above freezing in the islands. Possibly some snow for eastern areas. Clear skies to be found further west. When we get to Sunday, we can cleary see the differences between 12z rusn of the GFS and ECM. On the ECM 12z there is a deep area of low pressure situated in the atlantic west of Ireland. Both runs keep it cold, but the ECM is more favourable for snowy and cold weather from more of an easterly flow as that area of low pressure slides eastwards across the south of Ireland and England then into France. GFS 12Z ECM 12Z Anyway, Sunday is looking cold with an ice day for some, typical highs of 0 to 2C, a degree or two higher near the sea. Probably a cloudy day with some light snow possible in eastern areas. The risk of snow in the east continues into Sunday night and it could be a very cold night in some places, another widespread air frost. The cold spell (or Big Freeze) funnily enough looks like continuing into at least the first part of next week. GFS suggests a breakdown around Tuesday night/Wednesday morning and possibly temperatures in some areas could briefly exceed what I consider to be the threshold of a cold spell - maximum temperatures at 5C or lower - but considering how we've seen this cold spell be dramatically extended, then I wouldn't rule out this cold spell extending further, possibly as far as the weekend which would mark a two-week cold spell. The ECM however is a cracker with shades of November/December 2010. How about this for a chart - Monday Continuing into Tuesday and staying cold right up to the weekend - I think the term 'Big Freeze' would be suitable if the ECM 12z verifies. Of course there are variations across the models, but there is a signal for significant things to come beyond this week and possibly beyond next week with things a northern hemispheric perspective looking good - remember the effects of the SSW on the troposphere wasn't projected untl around the 25th January - a really, really thrilling period of winter and weather in general coming up. Brace yourselves.

Without any doubt I prefer GFS 06z wrt Scottish snow on Friday.

Glad to confirm that there was a light snow flurry about 30mins ago. A very cold and seasonal day too - current maximum of 1C at Glasgow airport. The met office warning covers quite a bit of Scotland and suggests accumilations widely 5-10cm. BBC Forecast looked good aswell and so does NAE snow/rain precip charts. I was impressed with the GFS 06z UK precipitation chart, the heaviest of the precip. is shown around Cowal and Dunbartonshire. This really needs to be closely followed as details will change closer to the time but I feel quite confident that Glasgow/west central lowlands could not only be looking at a snowfall but a significant event aswell. The further north and east, the greater the uncertainty on how far the band will reach these regions but I think a widespread Scottish frontal snowfall is still possible and if north eastern areas such as Aberdeenshire/Angus miss out, then perhaps the convective south easterly wind could make up for it. It's remarkable how the situation with the models and their outlook has evolved - at one stage it looked like the cold spell would be over by now, but day by day there has been a extension of the cold conditions which should prevail into at least the first part of next week and I wouldn't rule out this cold spell continuing well beyond next week, or a more significant period to follow. But even at short-time frames, there has been great variations and it's interesting to see how the synoptic situation for Saturday/Sunday has evolved from -5C uppers hanging into north eastern parts of the UK with a strong SSEly, to sub -5C uppers covering much of the British Isles with more of an easterly flow.

I think its just starting to slow down but I expect that it will gradually make eastward progress overnight. It would be a nice surprise if it reaches the central belt.

-12.7C at Braemar

"Region is not included" LEVEL 1 - GREEN - Winter PREAPAREDNESS and LONG TERM PLANNING: "This is the minimum state of vigilance during the winter. During this time social and healthcare services will ensure that there is ongoing awareness and preparedness." LEVEL 2 - YELLOW - ALERT and READINESS! "Triggered by the Met Office as soon as the risk is 60% or above for any of the thresholds to be breached. This is an important stage for social and healthcare services who will be working to ensure readiness and swift action to reduce harm from a potential period of cold weather." ADVICE: Prolonged periods of cold weather can be dangerous, especially for the very young, very old or those with chronic diseases. LEVEL 3 - AMBER - SEVERE WEATHER ACTION!! "Triggered by the Met Office when we are experiencing weather which breaches any of the thresholds. This stage requires social and healthcare services to target specific actions at high-risk groups." ADVICE: Prolonged periods of cold weather can be dangerous, especially for the very young, very old or those with chronic diseases. LEVEL 4 - RED - NATIONAL EMERGENCY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! "Reached when a period of cold weather is so severe and/or prolonged that its effects extend outside the health and social care system. A level 4 warning would be issued on advice from, or in collaboration with, our Government partners. At this level, the health effects may occur among the fit and healthy, and not just in high-risk groups." ADVICE: You can help keep warm by heating all the rooms that you use in your home, ensuring that your bedroom temperature is above 18 °C overnight. Dress warmly, ensuring you wear plenty of thin layers, rather than one thick one. If there is anyone you know who might be at special risk, for example an older person living on their own, make sure they know what to do. Threshold values There are two different thresholds for the Cold Weather Alert service. Only one of the thresholds needs to be breached for a warning to be issued. The thresholds were developed, working closely with the Department of Health and the Health Protection Agency, to pinpoint when winter weather will affect people's health. The thresholds are: Mean temperatures below 2 degrees Celsius for 48 hours or longer Heavy snow and/or widespread ice It all seems a bit over-the-top. I think it would decent of the met office to at least make the other regions aware of the health related problems associated with this form of natural disaster.

I could be wrong but I think so far, Aberdeen/Dyce has recorded it lowest temperature since Boxing Day 2010.

Braemar -11.3C @10pm

Braemar -11.3C Aberdeen/Dyce now down to -7.6C

Early hours of Monday - snow for SW Scotland. Becoming more widespread

Big differences for Sunday between GFS 18Z and 12z 18z

Snow across western and central parts on Friday evening

Thank you very much LS! For a quick second, worringly it seemed NL's delivery for a proper blizzard had been hijacked by our southern friends..

Back to the weather and it must be the coldest night in Aberdeen for quite a while - already below -7C at Dyce. Aboyne has reached -10C aswell.

-11.0C at Braemar. -9.5C at Aboyne -6.8C at Dyce

The position of the front isn't a done deal yet so we have to wait and see how future runs and forecast deal with situation. I think western and southern parts of Scotland could see some snow and possibly convective snow showers in a strong south easterly wind in the north sea. Even if we miss out this weekend, there could be similar big snowfall situations in the following week as the battle between the atlantic and cold continues - next week Scotland is looking like being the place to be. EDIT: From IF on the Far North of England thread

And in other news. -9.8C at Braemar @7pm

ECM 12z looks good for Scotland. Excellent. It wasn't long ago that there was a consensus for this particular cold spell to end during this week but now next week is looking good. We are now in very interesting times.