A Winter's Tale

It's time to move London to the Cairngorm plateau then there'll be nae need for the NAE charts.

Just come back from a chilly Lochgoilhead - where there was a light covering of snow below 2000ft on the hills. I've heard that there have been some downgrades regarding the snow here in Scotland but I'll trudge my way through the charts and forecasts. Certainly, I'm expecting some parts of Scotland to get a good dumping and just glancing at the GFS 12z, it looks decent for the duration for cold conditions next week and possible snow in a easterly flow.

I have ran out of French superlatives!

Aha - tres bien!!!! hmmmmm Looking promising for early next week!

Good evening fellow kilters! After what has been a very mild start to January, finally we are now starting to see the first signs of winter of 2013. Skies should be overcast across much of the country and indeed there could be some light rain affecting Galloway, Arran, Bute, Cowal, Kintyre, Mid-Argyll, Jura, Islay, Mull, Coll, Tiree, the southern islands of the outer hebrides, parts of Ayrshire and possibly the Ardnamurchan penisula so there'll be nae chance of stargazing here tonight - hopefully over the coming weeks the skies will be generally clear as there is a decent chance of seeing the northernlights. Lewis/Harris, Skye, the north west of the mainland (south of Lochinver), possibly extending eastwards towards the northern end of the Great Glen and the highland city of Inverness could see some clear skies overnight. There's also a risk of showers for the northern parts of Lewis and both of the northern isles. Tonight, the winds should turn towards a south easterly with sub -5C uppers skirting the north sea coast of Scotland. Regarding convection from the north sea snaw machine, it's always a last minute affiar, there could be some activity overnight and I'll expect showers to feed into Aberdeenshire, northern Angus tonight and there could be signs of the precipitation starting to turn more wintry - possibly a covering on the hills around Banchory and the Angus Glens. Showers may also dance close to the east coast of the Borders, Fife but with the proximity to the sea and low elevation, the precipitation may be watery rather than wintry in settlements such as Eyemouth or St Andrews. Another sign of things about to turn wintry is that sub 528 dam air should be knocking on the door of eastern Scotland tonight. Another thing to take note from tonights weather is that there is a possibility of fog patches in some parts, possibly the borders or the glens of Lochaber. Overnight lows typically 0 to 5C, below freezing in highland glens (Dalwhinnhe probably a good spot) and in the borders away from the coast; above 5C in the northern isles. A similar story at dawn except the sub -5C and 528 dam air are making westward progress across Alba. Dawn for Saturday morning: 0752hrs - Aberdeen, Edinburgh 0753hrs - Dundee 0756hrs - Glasgow Lovely uppers out in the north sea!! Sunrise: 0841hrs - Glasgow 0840hrs - Aberdeen 0839hrs - Dundee 0837hrs - Edinburgh During the morning, most fog patches should start to clear, a few glimpses of early morning sun in some north western areas. There may well be a line of light rain/drizzle around some southwestern areas and on the high ground and away from the coast it could begin to turn wintry. There should be further showers in the east coast and these probably will be starting to turn to snow in some areas away from the sea: Angus looks good for shower activity extending into parts of Aberdeenshire, possibly reaching highland Perthsire and further showers running along the coast of the Borders and possibly extending further inland into the Kingdom of Fife in the southeasterly. Some of the conditions favourable for wintry precipiation at low elevations should continue to spread across the country. The weather warning for snow in eastern areas is valid from 9am - http://www.metoffice...nings/#?tab=map Possibly icy where rain falls instead During this time, I'll be going down to Lochgoilhead for the morning and afternoon - probably likely to be dry, mostly cloudy, maybe some light precipitation that could be wintry at the Rest and be Thankful. For Saturday lunchtime, skies probably staying cloudy across large parts of the country but there should be some sunny intervals for some of the hebridean islands and along the north west coastline. The showers affecting Lewis/Harris and the northern isles should clear out to the west. For Galloway, the Clyde islands, Kintyre and some of the southern hebridean islands, extending northwards into Ayrshire and possibly reaching the south side of Glasgow - there should be some patchy and light precipitation affecting these areas but these could have a wintry element on it - especially over the high ground. Showers in the south easterly continue to affect the east coast, pushing inland across some parts of Fife and especially Angus and southern parts of Aberdeenshire and these should at least be wintry to lower levels and certainty will be wintry over the higher ground - i.e the mountains just north of the highland boundary fault line: Angus Glens, possibly reaching Glenshee or the Cairngorms. Temperatures hovering around 1 to 4C. The afternoon - sunset and dusk: Aberdeen - 1554, 1642 Dundee - 1602, 1648 Edinburgh - 1606, 1651 Glasgow - 1611, 1656 Sunny intervals or clear intervals should be possible in the north west highlands - close to the coast - some of the islands, possibly Orkney, and maybe even some settlements along the Moray firth could see some clear intervals and hopefully some will be able to see a wintry sunset. There could be further patchy precipitation across the south west affecting Galloway and some of the areas surrounding the Firth of Clyde. Winds turning to more of an easterly flow with a south easterly element. Shower activity in the north sea may increase - a risk of snow showers for Angus, Aberdeenshire, northwards into Moray, parts of Fife and the borders and possibly reaching parts of Perth and Kinross. Probably falling as snow on the low ground away from the sea and in parts of Angus, locally there could be some reasonable accumilations. Maximum temperature across the nation should be 2 to 5C for most, a bit lower in some parts of the highlands. During the evening - temperatures should begin to drop once more and it should feel distinctly chilly in some eastern areas. Skies generally on the cloudy side with some intervals and the best of the clear spells once more in the north west, some of the hebridean islands and the northern isles and possibly the north east corner of Aberdeenshire and along the Moray coast. There should be further showers in the easterly - although the activity may decrease but that can't be guranteed. As sn0man says - snawtastic! It is likely to be first Scottish snow of 2013 as a result of our good-old friend - the north sea snow machine. It's worth following developments up to around Monday or as far as Wednesday, beyond Wednesday and it's all up in the air so the models will continue to intruige and cause despair (to some, hehe) over the weekend. But it's looking good for something a bit more seasonal. Nice clip by Peter Gibbs of BBC Weather - What is a sudden stratospheric warming? - http://www.bbc.co.uk.../feeds/20992173 Now we know where and how the GFS gets its information from - this explains everything And we will all sleep well tonight knowing if an arctic blast is on the way - well, according to the Daily Express from down south - that the reindeer herd at the Cairngorm mountain will be rescued if they end up on a frozen Loch Morlich. http://www.bbc.co.uk...canada-20983118 Now it's all up to the GFS 18z. No pressure on that little fella, but meanwhile at the Met Office they will be........ And another run gone, another run gone, another run bites the dust. EDIT: Remember folks - look at Chegger's signature and you'll find the essential Kilted Thread tool. This could come handy tomorrow. And if the models go pear-shaped, so I believe that northerlights has an alternative model to treat us with.

Not quite a full ramp mode, just yet. Plenty of potential before that for snow and certainly cold temperatures - particulary over the snow-fields at night.

Quite chilly

GFS 12z looking good and so is the updated met office warnings. Not as cold as yesterday with cloud cover during the night keeping the temperatures at around 3C and it reached 6C so fairly typical winter temperatures. Fairly cloudy throughout the day with a few breaks in the cloud cover but the skies are now largely clear just in time for dusk with a very wintry tint of blue and clouds with a shade of purple.

Super summary there IF! Indeed, hopefully us in "the north" will have some fun out of this upcoming spell, and wouldn't it just be great to relive the synoptics of late November 2010 again..........a snow-lover can dream!! It's nice to see atleast someone from south of the border who's generous enough to produce an excellent summary for the one and only kilted thread!

GFS 18z looked okay and sets up tomorrow very nicely for the models to take centre stage. Probably the most crucial day yet in this saga, and even the details for events this weekend and early next week may not be clarified until the very last minute. Dense fog has returned here, Glasgow airport recorded a low of -2C - the coldest low since 12th December and first air frost since 14th December. Currently 3C which is the maximum temperature so far, the last time the maximum didn't exceed 5C was 27th December. Snow potential starts later on Friday and there could be some great surprises, with the weather and the models. Latest BBC forecast looked interesting for Sunday!

Warnings for snow across eastern areas http://www.metoffice...nings/#?tab=map

Brrrr. A cold day here with quite dense fog this morning. I only had a few glimpses of GFS 06z and 12z runs and it seems like the pesky shortwave is still present - but I believe that the ensembles tell a different story. Then I saw both ECM runs and nearly fainted!

That's fantastic! It's essential that we put more emphasis into stratospheric research as it will expand our knowledge of what influences the weather. Also, I loved the mention of the possibility of more significant snowfall early next week. Let's see where the GFS 18z takes us after "that ECM"!

Ian Fergusson's forecast looked super for eastern Scotland in particular for Saturday. His forecasts are also much better than Reporting Scotland.

This winter we have had "That ECM" umpteen times already. Another super run but because of the low confidence, I'll remain to be convinced until such amazing synoptics enter a more reliable timeframe aswell as cross-model agreement.

A strange day with the models with a super ECM 00z, UKMO 12z not too bad either but the GFS, particulary the 06z run was a backtrack from previous runs. I think it's a drama with a shortwave close to Iceland that has caused the problems of heights extending into Greeland that we've seen on the models last night and today - thus, this will cause a real headache to forecasters - must be really low confidence beyond the weekend. This weekend itself is looking interesting and importantly it's going look and feel like winter again. There is the potential for convective snow showers into eastern Scotland and possibly a snow event in western areas with a feature moving eastwards into the country. At this stage, no model or forecaster can be sure of what will happen this weekend as any slight adjustments would have major implications on the snow potential. There could be further ugrades for the weekend so we should look out for details about the uppers, the easterly flow, projected precipitation - hopefully Ian Fergusson could give a summary on what the Met Office expects this weekend to be like in Scotland. Hopefully, there'll at least be an air frost during this week/weekend and it would be more than ideal if we all saw snow this weekend if things do go pear shaped, ala GFS 06z. Having said that, even if the shortwave causes problems, I'd expect more bites at the cherry through to the end of the month.

Yeah, the buzz of the whole event was reduced due to the stop-start affair. It's like playing a football match during a harsh winter. lol http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/20921260

Now back on. God knows what it'll be like if the south east gets something like a January 1987 or whole of the British Isles plunges into a deep freeze!

Anyone else got the same techical problems?

No longer the only user as the forum is up and running again yet I can't view my profile or see who's online.

Hello. Is anyone there? I am quite literally the only user online right now! GFS 18Z is another cracker!!!

GFS 18z picks Kenny Miller! lol 12z EDIT! Rhodes and S.Fletcher about to come on. D.Law and Dalglish to turn up for FI!

Still some potential for the weekend. Scotland almost scores! Awaits next chance!

Aye Lorenzo, it could be a classic. Now 1911 users coming to watch the show unfold - GFS 18z is going to feel like a football tonight - hopefully it won't be anything a nerve-shredding like any Scotland match! lol. We better not score one big, bad own goal tonight.

What an afternoon and evening with the models. Caution must be urged but one can't resist the excitement of the genuine potential that lies ahead of us all. This setting up to be an amazing week for model watching aswell - it will be EPIC, trust me!!! A backtrack and MT capitulation of EPIC proportions with Ian Broon at his sparkling best; Steve Murr says KABOOM with "That ECM, GFS et UKMO", the upgrades just keep going; or we steadily keep on going with further variations but we maintain the trend for truly promising winter prospects. Who'd thought that a post from Mr.I.Broon would have so many likes! http://forum.netweather.tv/best-content/