Partholon

We just have to hope the ukmo is correct and the other models follow suit. Although it seems some UK met forecasters don't back their own model output for next week. So we may well have to make do with spring wintry showers. I just have a feeling we are going to get a cold March.

The ukmo looks good, but still far from perfect. Let's hope the ECM backs it up tonight. So we can all get a couple of days of a northerly blast!

Yes. The best we can hope for now is a two-three day toppler. Sustained cold is not going to happen in Ireland this winter. It goes to show that putting too much stock in background signals is a mistake, because based on those the pattern should be blocked for the rest of the month, instead the polar vortex will soon be back in charge for the end of the month

At this stage a toppler would do me. I had a hunch any high pressure we got in Greenland would be a temporary affair given the UK met office outlook . Met Eireann do mention the possibility of colder weather for early next week, with showers for the north and west. So hopefully it'll be cold enough for snow.

So It looks like I picked the wrong month(March) to go to France this year):

Well I was trying to stay away from this forum, because i was resigned to winter being over, but came on today in the faint hope that the models might have changed for the better. **Finger crossed** it stays this way in the coming days.

It's looking bleak now you have to say now for sustained snowy cold. Yes, that essentially has been the problem all winter, despite indications over the last few weeks and up to Saturday that the Azores high would eventually move north westwards it seemingly isn't going to do so now. The previous two winters were notable for the absence of an Azores high during our cold spells. So if we have low pressure in the Azores, it means high pressure is more likely further north- this is what happened in the previous two winters. Unfortunately this year we've gone back to the normal Atlantic setup of low pressure in Greenland for months on end, with high pressure over the Azores since November. It really has been a poor winter for Ireland. At least much of Scotland during December saw a few days of snow. The most we've had is a couple of hours of night time snow in the form of scattered showers. Indeed some places here didn't even have that much.

Well sadly I feel it's game over in terms of prolonged cold. I've learnt some lessons this winter about taking t-240 teleconnection signals too seriously. Also the idea that the vortex couldn't possible renew itself to any great extent in February. As for spring, with a la nina winter, a cold spring could well happen. If so I hope we get a good snow storm sometime in March. It won't last long on the ground, but better to have it than not at all.

Same here. A northern toppler would do at this stage. I suppose after the last two years, we should have prepared for the worst. lol

I 'm beginning to think it could be hopecasting relying on the teleconnections. You have to ask yourself why did the UK met office suddenly switch their outlook today. They must surely take into account these teleconnections. The fact they and two of the major models have ditched a Greenland High is a very bad sign. I guess we'll know by Tuesday or Wednesday. You'd have to say if the idea of a Greenland high hasn't shown up again on the models by then, and a resurgent pv is shown, we can forget about a prolonged cold spell till next winter.

Not great charts tonight from the ECM it has to be said- unless of course you live in the south east of England.

Yes hopefully that's the case. However the uk met office extended outlook have now gone with the idea of a scandi high/icelandic high. They also are of the view the Atlantic takes over during the last week of February. With a Scandi high it's nearly always easier for the Atlantic to get back in. I'm just worried a new trend is taking shape.

The ECM is very good if you live in the north east and east of Ireland, not so for those in other locations. It's puzzling how it has suddenly dropped the Greenland high idea. I suppose the ecm is also better for prolonging the cold, but from an imby perspective, the GFS looks better to me. Met Eireann are talking about somewhat milder weather again next weekend. Well there probably will be changes in their outlook over the week. However if the cold and snowy scenario is constantly pushed back it's not a good sign.

Serbia is buried under 8 foot of snow! Oh you mean anywhere in the British Isles:) Well hopefully yet is the keyword!

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVK89.png An interesting fax chart for Tuesday. The front seems to stall. On the earlier fax chart the fronts were much further east. Could there be frontal snow in the east of Ireland from this?

It's hard to understand how the ecm comes out with a run like that when all the background signals suggest the complete opposite. Still i suppose it can't be discounted. I'll not believe things will fall into place for us until these charts showing cold and snow are at t-72.

A very good run from the gfs 12z for some parts of Ireland by mid week of next week. Although the potential could well be gone on the next runs. They always seem to throw up eye catching charts then drop them for most modest solutions. So best to not get your hopes up till these charts are showing within 48 hours. And then there is the more sobering ECM in the medium. Although further out in fi(t192) heights seem to build northwards.

I hopes that's the case. I was told in the model thread that an east based - nao is better for our prospects, because with a west -nao the high might be located too far west, as a result the cold air is shunted into the Atlantic instead of over us?

I'm not liking the latest uk met office extended outlook(day 6-15). Less cold further north and west with slow moving bands of rain, giving snow on their forward edge and more generally on high ground, seems to be the theme. So that probably means snow in Scotland and North of England at times, with rain for most of Ireland. It'll be most frustrating if this turns out to be the case.

Well it's going to get milder in Northern Ireland and the Western Isles over the next 7 - 10 days. I think the accuracy of your February forecast will be ascertained thereafter. Your forecast would seemingly discount the possibility of a further reload from the north around mid month. So this period will be pivotal in determining the success of your forecast.

Yep sickening alright that we miss out again. I have a brother in London who doesn't care if it's snow or not. I understand that low heights in Greenland effectively lock the Azores high in place. Although I must admit I do not fully under the interactions between low pressure and high pressure. Why is it that the more amplified the trough is in eastern USA is crucial in determining whether the Azores high will eventually move north west?. If you have time to explain why I would appreciate it. Thanks.

Let's not Roger. You just want your forecast for February to verify When you should be thinking of the coldies. How selfish can you be!?. Just messing with you. No offense intended

The Azores high has really messed us around so far this winter. I just have the fear it's going to continue that way. If we don't see strong indications of height rises to the north west of us by the middle of next week, then it might be time to give up on the idea of a prolonged cold period.

It's disappointing to see it's all in the balance again. So we may well see a change in the ukmo further outlook if the GFS is right.

Well Roger J Smith's - M.T. Cranium's - latest forecast rules out us benefiting from any reload - the cold is over eastern England and Scotland. If his forecast verifies it could be the end of February before we see any snow(if at all). He worryingly seems quite confident that this is what will happen. It would be a real kick in teeth to have this dramatic pattern change and then not get any snow out of it at all!