Partholon

The reality is that in 20 year times most people will remember that we had an extremely cold and snowy month in December 2010/11, they won't have in mind that the CET for that winter finished up average overall.

I'm the opposite. I'd be happy to have a benign winter overall again, if it meant we had a sustained period of extreme/record cold again at some point during this winter. A two-three day Arctic outbreak at different intervals, followed by a temporary ridge of HP from the Atlantic, during the winter just doesn't cut it anymore for me. The bar has been raised!

So reading between the lines; colder overall this winter, but at no point will we experience sustained and severe cold like we had last year. I'm not surprised given last December was the coldest in 100 years in many areas. It now seems James Madden is the only well-known LRF forecaster going for similar conditions to last year to reoccur. I wonder how he'll be viewed come the first of March?

Well, unfortunately there has been a substantial increase in magnetic activity from the Sun lately, so if this is a driving factor in our recent cold spells during winter, surely this isn't a good sign?

"I did mention to a friend in a chat section of one forum that it wouldn't surprise me if winter came a bit earlier than last year, but I'm not convinced it will dig in for a long, furious assault. It may just come and go early."

I like your optimism. However Roger J Smith's initial thoughts for this winter are very disappointing if you are a snow addict. He seems to think Winter will make an early appearance this year, but he doesn't foresee any sustained cold taking hold. In fact he seems to suggest that we're in for a normal winter, once the early cold spell is over. As much as i'd like him to be wrong, he was spot on about the early start to Winter 2010/11.

RJS + BFTP and mark Bayleys forecasts' would seem to be the most accurate of them all.

I can't wait to see it. I hope ye are still of the view of a sting in the tale for February.

Here is how i think this winter will be: After a cold December, January and February will sadly be mild overall, because there will be no major stratospheric warming event to allow a blocking high to influence our weather again. So make the most of the blocking high in December, because once it declines the rest of the winter will be crap if you're a snow addict.

I see what you're doing there; the old reverse psychology routine - staving off disappointment by expecting little from this Winter. So this way any snow that you do get is a pleasant surprise.

A potentially dismal winter for those of us in Eire if his forecast is correct- although, while he may have the overall pattern correct, it's impossible for him to know exactly where the high in December will be situated- a couple of hundred miles further to the Northwest of Ireland, could make all the difference for us. Anyway as much as i was initially disappointed reading his forecast, fair play to him for sticking his neck out- it's easy to be hurlers on the ditch(critics, who just shout he's wrong, without producing their own forecast to say why he's wrong)

stunning pictures. your first post was worth the wait.