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Partholon

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  1. Partholon
    The lastest met eireann update is as follows: Wednesday, Thursday and Friday will each be very cold a largely dry days with sunny spells. Temperatures will only range from 3 to 6 degrees by day and will fall as low as -5 degrees in places at night. Winds will be mostly light to moderate and east to southeast in direction. Current indication suggest that next weekend will continue very cold with a risk of wintry showers on east and south coasts. Although that could have all changed again by tomorrow!
  2. Partholon
    Unfortunately, I think they've changed their longer term outlook again today, though): December 2011 was indeed a greenie high. I remember it fondly, because the amount of snow that accumulated was more than I'd ever seen before in Ireland.
  3. Partholon
    So a technical SSW has now actually occurred? Whatever the case it's a very good sign when all eyes are off this thread, and there are a thousand-odd eyes on the model thread:) With this in mind, I hope chino' and others who provided all the info in this thread are rewarded with some of white stuff in the days ahead.
  4. Partholon
    Interestingly HP moving to Greenland is what GP indicated might happen. Since he has got the overall picture correct, hopefully he'll be right about this little piece of the jigsaw. If those of us further west are to see any snow we need this to happen.
  5. Partholon
    Well even if that's the case, surely it will take a while before it begins to take effect? Would this have anything to do with the impact from the solar storm?
  6. Partholon
    I think it's safe to say it's going to get colder in Ireland, it's just a question of how cold it will get, and how long will it last. The uk met office is confident of cold air persisting for at least the first week or two of February(the longer it persists the better chances of snow coming from some direction eventually), but of course these met office forecasts do not have Ireland in mind specifically, so it could well get milder here, while the cold air persists in much of England. If this is how it plays out, at least let us have some snow before the change. After the winter so far, it'll be a real sickner if we don't get anything out of this.
  7. Partholon
    So his forecast haven't been accurate this year? Or is that more of a desire for him to be wrong rather than a statement of fact . Anyway I shouldn't be worrying about a cold spell ending, that hasn't even happened yet. Even if he were to be right, better to have brief cold conditions than none at all!
  8. Partholon
    Simon Keeling's forecast posted earlier in the thread is disappointing. The Atlantic is back in after no length of time according to him. He obviously doesn't think a Greenland high will develop to help prolong any cold spell.
  9. Partholon
    I see Met Eireann in their latest update are not even mentioning the possibility of wintry showers for the weekend. I think the chances of a good upgrade are low at this stage. Looking to the longer term, some of the models do show opportunities for a decent cold spell.
  10. Partholon
    The UKMO in their extended outlook yesterday made no mention of blocking. That may suggest they are backing the GFS on what happens in the stratosphere and its effects lower down. If so maybe that's why he's downplaying the ecm 32 day update?
  11. Partholon
    not looking too good according to this guy: Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 1h Reply Retweet ...mean zonal wind set to increase above 20 to 30hPa now longer term from the ECM = renewed support for +NAO/Atlantic weather.. I guess a positive slant on this might be that it takes a few weeks for the effects of this to show up on the models
  12. Partholon
    with this post in mind: Sorry if this is in the wrong forum, but what was the state of the stratosphere back in the winters of 1947 and 1962/63? Was the stratosphere warm throughout those prolonged cold spells, or was it a case that the initial warming created such huge blocking highs, that they couldn't be dislodged despite the stratosphere cooling down? Last year, according to the experts, it seems once the stratosphere started to cooled down in December, our chances of cold returning were low. So i suppose my question is can blocking highs sometimes be sustained, even if the stratosphere cools down significantly?
  13. Partholon
    So what you're really saying is it's beginning to look fairly bleak now for sustained blocking. If there is no further warming the vortex will probably quickly reorgainse itself and move back over Greenland. One positive is the CFS temperature chart for February, but those can change frequently.
  14. Partholon
    His lrf forecast for December 2010 was spot on too. Unfortunately there after his forecast was not very accurate. I really hope it doesn't turn out to be the same this year. An important thing to remember is his forecast for January seemingly hinges on a strat' warming occurring. The experts over in the Stratospheric warming thread have cautioned that despite promising signs one may not take place at all. It'll be really disappointing if we don't get out of this current dreadful pattern to something far better, as it would indicate solar activity has increased enough to bring our weather back to normal.
  15. Partholon
    I thought Roger J Smith's and GP's winter forecasts were mainly based on the idea of a SSW event happening before the end of December?
  16. Partholon
    Are you saying that signals are emerging to support what you expect to unfold in 6 or 7 weeks time?
  17. Partholon
    Do you think it will eventually move towards Scandinavia or sink...?
  18. Partholon
    Very true. It would be good to have the cold to come, rather than it being all over by January. Retailers might appreciate it being later this year too. So I hope we get a hugh siberian high tracking westwards towards Scotland in January, which holds firm against incursions from the Atlantic for a solid month or more
  19. Partholon
    not everyone is full of humility , these kinds of people will always be quick to self-praise if they get it right, but not forthcoming about when they get things wrong. you're wasting your time expecting them to change.
  20. Partholon
    http://www.nwra.com/spawx/ap.html
  21. Partholon
    What do people make of this: Let’s take a look at some select years in the past few decades, and examine the states of both the QBO and geomagnetic ap index, and their corresponding impact on the NAO phase. 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1979-80 1983-84 1988-89 1989-90 1991-92 1993-94 2000-01 All of the above years featured a -QBO (easterly), yet all winters (DJF) had a +NAO average. If we look at the geomagnetic ap index for those winters, they all featured either high or rising values. 1977-78 1978-79 2008-09 All of these years featured a +QBO (westerly), yet the winters had a –NAO average. The geomagnetic ap index was either low or decreasing during those seasons. Thus, in 13/40 years since 1970 the QBO and NAO were inversely correlated and did not follow the expected signal (+QBO/+NAO, -QBO/-NAO). So 67.5% of years followed the expected QBO/NAO combination. However, the geomagnetic ap index-NAO correlation since 1970 was quite a bit higher. The QBO and geomagnetic ap index appear to have a relationship, which is not surprising; solar activity impacts stratospheric circulations/patterns. With that being said, geomagnetic activity appears to be more important than the QBO in terms of connection to NAO modality. In times of lower geomagnetic activity and –QBO, the –NAO potential is likely enhanced significantly.
  22. Partholon
    I have to sign up to see those. I was hoping you were going to say you predicted a mild winter that year ):
  23. Partholon
    What was your thinking in 2009 at this time?
  24. Partholon
    Perhaps he is over-egging it. Roger J smith does predict a cold end to November, but nothing as severe and sustained as last year. It would be great if Corbyn is right, but he always seems to predict very cold weather. It's interesting to note that Stuart Rampling and Roger J Smith seem to have similar ideas for later on in the winter, just a difference in timing.
  25. Partholon
    I wasn't aware of this. That is a fairly worrying piece of information alright. What about the prolonged cold spell of the previous winter? Was there any signal in advance about that by anyone?
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