EML Network

I Don't like Brad...he's lazy

This summer for us in Brighton & Hove has been at best bog standard average. Too much cloud cover has been my major gripe, even on some of the hotter days we had a lot of cloud cover, sea breezes has really pegged the temperatures down, whilst elsewhere has been sweltering. The only good thing has been the lack of uncomfortable nights, overall then a pretty average summer, to follow what was a pretty average spring (Bar April), which followed a pretty average winter (Bar December)

well what a dull summer it has been for the most part anyway, looking forward to what I think will be a very active autumn, thinking there will be plenty of windy days ahead of us in September, and especially October, and in late November..as for the general outlook. My own thoughts are that we will see temperatures hovering around or a little below the 1961-1991 CET for September, with plenty of early morning mist and fog around in the mornings, and some early frosts , and plenty of windy weather to be had in all parts at one time or another I think on the whole we'll see a fair amount of rainfall, perhaps slightly above average in areas that have not seen so much this summer, September for me has always been one of those months that is hard to predict, I don't think were going to see an indian summer though, perhaps the first week of the month will be calm and more akin to summer, but without the heat. Back end of September looks as if it might be akin to the first few days, in that it might be dry, settled, but with some really cool nights. October looks to me that it might be a month that sticks in the memory for being a really stormy month, Low Pressure systems frequently feeding off the atlantic, crossing the midlands and NW Soctland, frequent gales, and plenty of rain to be had for many, Overal NE England seeing the highest rainfall totals for the month as a whole, along with SW England, and parts of Ireland and Wales. Temperatures a tad mild for the time of year, and perhaps very mild on occasion in the south and South East, I think we might even see a 25 in costa del gravesend or somewhere near to there around the middle of the month. I think the month will end on a very stormy and windy note, with a noticable drop in temperatures as we head into November. November I think will be a shock to the system for many, and we'll see the first widespread snowfall for low lying areas of Scotland around mid month, and then again at the end of the month in the NE of scotland in particular, perhaps spreading as far south as Hull, plenty of sleetyness around for other areas such as N.Irleand, and NE England as we get close to the end of November. Not too sure about the rest of the UK for November as it's a long way off really, my guess would be that we'll see the first widespread frosts countrywide from mid November onwards, and it will be genrally dry, and bright, with the odd windy day here and there, but nothing like what i envisage for October for this part of the UK. Overall I think autumn will be a windy one, and generally wetter than average, not so much of a N/S Split as we have seen over the summer, a few sunny days here and there AND a few exceptionlly mild days especially in October, but no really prolonged spells of dry and bright weather with the exception of Mid October, I don;t forsee as some people are suggesting a blizzard filled November, and beyond Autumn, I think we'll see a bog standard winter, not as warm as pre 2006 but not as cold as the previous 3, but somewhere in the middle, with elemtns of both from time to time

IMAGE of the day for me

To be fair, I could likely to go the same site on a different day and post graphics that predict the complete opposite. Those charts DO and WILL change almost on a daily basis flipping from one extreme to the next, I find them to be completey and utterly useless when looking at more than 2 months out, the ONLY month that they have been consistent with odly enough is Feb, but that's such a long way off that they could post anything at this time of year, not like they don't have PLENTY of time to change their minds. I'm not saying that you are wrong to point it out, it's just that if you look at these charts daily as I do (just out of curiosity) you'll know tht they can be predicting the hottest and driest wnter since 2,000,000 BC one day ..lol...and the most biblical cold and wet outlook since the birth of the solar system the next

I think this winter is going to be bog standard average, I've been following all the patterns, threads, discussions, forums, looking at various charts, going outside and getting a feel of things, intuition, and much more. IMO there are several aspects that would favor a cold winter.. ...but I believe this will be cancelled out by other factors...for us to get a really cold and extended winter, with lots of snow, we need to have various factors playing into our hands, we basicly need to be lucky !! That doesn't mean I don't think we'll have a mild winter, and it doesn't mean I think we'll have a general lack of snowfall. I think we'll see a winter with some cold outbreaks, but also some milder interludes, and indeed the odd widespread snowfall event(s), but IMO the it will be a generally dry period, with high pressure dominating for the most part, I don't think Ireland will see as much snow as last winter, as always it's likely to be NE England that fairs best, Sunderland, Newcastle, Leeds, and perhaps as far down as Lincoln, and the East and North of Scotland, will fair best for snow in my opinion...but then that's nothing new is it !! I'm not prepared to make a forecast yet, (it's still officially summer), but that it my very very very very early and minimal thoughts on the matter as things stand !!

FGS why ohh why don't we get any storms this way any more, it seems that as soon as a storm comes up from the bay of biscuit and hits the channel, it gets all wimpy and either dies off, or suddenly gets a craving for snails, and frog's legs and buggers off back to France...aaarrgghhhhh

I'm going to feel hard done by if I don't see anything from today's potential, we DID have a few gaps in the cloud, and after having missed our only storm of the year this year, due to being at work, im beginning to run out of fingers to count the number of years since I caught a good old storm...COMMON ..interestingly MET O have me down for a TS at about 7pm tonight on their invent, which means I wont get anything now ...ggggrrrrr so hoping the windy season brings more fun than the previous 8 months of bland rubbish we have experienced in the south...2011 might be the most average and dull year on record for weather *Moan over*

A lot of activity brewing in the bay of biscuit wonder if it'll cross the channel, looks Isle of Wight Bound if it does ?

Well just woke up, local weather station reading 6.7mm of rain fell overnight, and looks like were going to get another batch moving through any minute. No T&L overnight , although I only stayed up until around midnight, looks like Plymouth is going to get an absolute soaking this morning. Once again the storm seems to be treking along the wrong side of the coast line, that area around Belgium / Holland has had an amazing month for storms. IMO we still have a full day of potential storm possibility today along the S.Coast, but i'm not holding my breath.

Although I'm a long way from the action there are some very odd cloud formations here on the East/West Sussex Coast border looks ominous out to sea accross thee channel, don't think we'll get anything this side of midnight in temrs of T&L , hopes are with tomorrow early morning ..enjoy the display elsewhere

REALLY ?? I'm in Mile Oak, and it was tipping it down earlier

I Think tomorrow is very much going to be hit n miss , SW looks favored spot to be now that MO have gone and cursed the SE Coasters

IMO that this side of midnight you stand a better chance of seeing a TS the further West you are, Ireland, Wales, and SW England being favored spots, then as we go through the course of tomorrow the whole thing shifts East, and so SC, SE, and Midlnds look favored, and perhaps NE too , and although a bit off subject, N.Sotland could be in for a very windy Sunday morning !! (one to keep an eye out for)

Right im off too ven the rain we had only lasted a few minutes..what a let down tonight has been (again), ohh well there's always Friday's supposed storms to look forward to, but CAPE is not showing anything to get excited about so not sure where MET O is seeing it come from ?? Nighty night all and good luck for those staying up

just started to rain heavily. and so it begins

Yeah I'm still going to stay up till 3ish, just waiting for the PPN to hit us and then we'll see how things progress, apology's for getting dissapointed so early on, time for another coffee

It's beginning to look more and more like a Non event right now, I can't see at this stage where any storm will come from, and even the PPN looks to be breaking up as it closes in on land I can hear something in the distance, but it's the sound of a fat lady singing

After some early excitement, I'm beginning to loose hope here, maybe I'm reading it wrong, but the storms seem to travel East as soon as they hit the channel ?? If anywhere is going to get hit tonight by thunder & Lightning IMO it's going to be Eastbourne, Hastings , or New Romney areas, contrary to my thoughts a few hours back, anywhere West of Eastbourne may well miss out on the thunder, but certainly not the rain, still plenty of time for change , and it's been an interesting night already..I think perhaps so many near misses over the years has made me a bit pessemistic ?

The storm currently over Jersey is the one to watch, the other storm does indeed seem to be hugging the French coastline, and looks like it's going to miss altogether So 3am IMO is about the time we'll start seeing some flashes, it all depends on whether it will survive the channel crossing

I'd say you guys are in the sweet spot tonight anywhere between Bognor & Hastings looks to be in the firing line, and yes it does indeed look like a giant foot..ha ha

Got a great view , can see a good 20 miles into the Channel from here currently I would have said, nicely elevated too, as soon as I can see a distant strike from here, I'll jump straight onto here and post a quick comment or image If i'm lucky enough to get one with my state of the art mobile phone (NOT) !!. And then I'll be trying to get some samples for some tracks Im currently working on...it's all well and good having someone elses ''Thunder'' in a track, but it's a great feeling to b able to capture part of an event like this, store it, and introduce it into a tune ..that might involve a trek into the hills though to cut out as much background noise as I can without the use of Software So that's my other project for the evening, a long way to go yet, and I'm not going to count my chickens until they hatch, I am beginning to get somewhat excited though...over n out for now. Stay safe storm lovers

Cheers Phil, will do, looking forward to seeing the change in the sea as any storms approach, it never fails to impress me how the sea goes from calm, to damn right dangerous in the space of a few minutes during a good storm.

It certainly feels like a storm could brew down this way tonight , got a great view in all directions bar immediate south (we live on the very top of a hill), great views to the East, and South East, looks ominous, and the radar looks promising, if we miss out tonight I will feel very hard done by

Yeah that one north of Nantes looks like it's headed this way that's what im watching for the next few hours...but before that an episode of True Blood to catch up on...looking forward to later...happy radar watching folks...over n out....for now