Howdy Folks
Been Doing a lot of research about the prospects of the coming winter, and my conclusion is that it was pointless trying to figure out what the weather will be more than a month ahead of the current date.
the NAO charts keep switching from positive to negative, the La Nina probably wont make much of a difference due to the fact that were so far away from the pacific , the gulf stream according to some has stalled, some say it's gone south , some say it's in it's normal position, personally I think it has moved south a bit, and I think that will have an effect.
Sunspot activity I think has a lag effect on the weather, and so I think this might tend to lean us towards a globally cooler few years ahead, this winter included, because of low activity over the past several years...but there's no real way to prove the effect of sunspot activity , but common sense would say it should have some kind of effect
So I think one can predict if it is LIKELY or Probable to be warmer or colder, but that's about all, obviously there is much more to consider, when it comes to making a detailed prediction, but it's all about probability's when making a ''forecast'' so far ahead, and the probability is , that some will get it right, some will nail it, some will be wrong, and some will be wayyyy out.
I think this is probably why forecasts more than a month ahead of the current date, can be open to interpretation, and are sometimes vague.
So once were at the beginning of December, We'll have a better understanding of what is likely to happen, based on probability, and of course by researching the past trends, however, I'm really not convinced that studying what has happened previously and comparing it to the current is an effective method as the sheer amount of variables involved means that you are highly unlikely to find a year that has followed the exact same pattern.
Personally I think were due for an average winter this year, in pretty much everything from temperature, to precipitation, and My basis for that conclusion is that, that is what I FEEL
Time will tell
