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Mikel Nimbus

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    East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion Part 21

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Mikel Nimbus

    We need to keep an eye on whats happening in the North of Englan. If it can mantain is intensity as it pushes south, Im sure we would get a few cms out of it.

    http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

    I agree we would see a decent covering if it kept its intensity. Unfortunately it has a long way travel south without any added moisture/energy from the sea. The high ground over northern England will also squeeze the air dry. Not often we can say it, but in effect, we in the south are on the Lee side.

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Basically in these types of patterns the De Bilt ensembles are very useful, the ensembles tell us a few things an onshore flow is unlikely as we would normally see quite a few rise above zero as the sea modification negates some of the cold for that region, generally they strongly suggest a very cold easterly or ene flow. Also at present were not expecting a west east battleground for example those scenarios with the high too far east with the uk at the cusp of the cold air, we could then say perhaps the cold air doesn't make it across the Channel, in a nutshell given the set up if its freezing cold over there its very likely to be the same for the UK especially more southern and se areas.

    Thanks Nick. It's fascinating the clues you can pick up from the ensembles.

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Mikel Nimbus

    How do i put this! the ECM operational run was not the coldest solution on offer this evening, the De Bilt ensembles for the Netherlands which of course given the pattern are a good indicator are sensational.

    http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

    Take into account there are 50 ensemble members, this means that even when each members starting conditions are tweaked the warmest temp any member finds in 10 days is barely above freezing.

    ECM was a slight mild outlier? My goodness that is unbelievable!

    However, since we are only looking at De Bilt, could it be that the coldest uppers have been advected too far west on the operational run (i.e. over us), whereas the other ECM members would like the colder temps over the Netherlands?

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    WISE words ...... The charts will probably look different come Monday!

    Beautiful looking charts... Yes! But really........

    Last weekend that low was modeled to bring a possible foot of snow to Wales and the Midlands..! The SE and EA, midlands was suppose to be under heavy snow showers all day today -was also backed up by the countryfile forecast as well - niether happened

    It's hardly a new trend we are seeing in the charts though. The reason most of the well established posters on here are getting excited is because the evolution towards the end of next week is perfectly plausible. The ensembles have been stunningly compact lately. All indications point to the charts pulling off what they suggest.

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Mikel Nimbus

    To have such distinct blocking to our south, as the ECM is suggesting, just doesn't stack up. Look at NAO forecasts. They are set to stay very negative for the first half on January. Such large pressure differences between Iceland and the Azores are much more common in a +NAO setup. nao.mrf.gif

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    One wobbly ECM and all the doom mongerers are out in force.

    Just bear this in mind before posting whining comments on here.

    1) GFS ensembles are stunningly compact out well into next week for very cold air over much of the country. It is also very keen to prolong the cold.

    2) ECM is supposed to have the best verification results lately. If today's 12z was to come off, that would mean all its previous runs lately would not verify! 12z ECM is the first time we have seen anything of the sort it is suggesting (mild SW'erlys) out in FI on any model thus far.

    3) Don't forget ECM wobbled for a few runs in the run up to the last cold spell. GFS modelled the setup brilliantly right from FI to T0.

    4) Even if this ECM run was to materialise, and I think that is a big if, there is huge potential for a lot of cold/snow up until then.

    Now calm down and enjoy your new year's eve.

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    GFS 06z was far too quick in flipping the AO towards positive and was rightly written off on here. 12z has slowed the rate of this progression by about 2 days. I still feel that the GFS has a bit more backtracking to do regarding the high sinking over us next week. This may leave us with the high situated a bit further north, leaving the UK under a slacker flow, but still none the less very cold.

    Since I started chart viewing in the BBC snow watch days, I've never seen such incredible cold potential as we have for next week. Some very interesting times ahead.

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Mikel Nimbus

    00z is infact turning out to be a slight upgrade. Not brilliant, but better. For a start the channel low by +90 is more elongated, giving regions further south a chance with the colder upper temps. We also keep low pressure to our south east drawing in cold air. 18z yesterday was very keen for it to shift west and join the Atlantic low (highly unfeasible). And to top it off, the northern blocking situation is so that it pushes everything that little bit further south by +138.

    00z at least pulls places further south into more marginal set ups instead of nailed on rain.

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Interesting run so far. The secondary low on Tuesday/Wednesday is certainly further north, practically in Scotland! However, 00Z is showing it to rotate the main system further south a lot quicker than 18z meaning it is out of our way a lot sooner. The main low is still well placed over the bay of biscay.

    There are also signs of a surface low developing over Poland. This looks like it might increase the flow of colder air towards our shores.

    Of slight concern is a weakened Greenland high. Down from 1040mb to 1035mb at one point.

    Model Output Discussion - 26Th Dec 21:25-->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Mikel Nimbus

    The charts look like synoptic spagetti to me. Has something like what is shown here ever happened before?

    Triplet low, another to the right of that below a messy Greenland - Siberian high link up

    Rtavn1621.png

    I don't think the models have yet got a consistent realistic evolution for the next couple of weeks.

    I think after something like T120 here we will get the Siberian high pushing down lower over Scandinavia blasting France and UK hard

    Rtavn1201.png

    I'm not completely convinced with what has been said on here lately, regarding the lack of data over Christmas affecting the chart outputs, but something does seem to be slightly amiss. I'm not a synoptics expert, but over the last few days we have seen some strange and inconsistent setups. One GFS run saw a Scandi High shoot SE across the continent at speeds I've never seen before.

    When the charts settle down we should get an idea of what northerly blocking setup will prevail. My money is on the Greenland high sticking around due to the placing of the split PV.

    East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    It's been freakin Armageddon here in North London. Barnet is quite hilly and there's cars and buses abandoned everywhere. (A bus left across our drive in fact).

    Anyone remember Rob McElwee's forecast last Thursday evening when he finished by raising his eyebrows and saying, "And then there's Monday........."

    Now THAT'S what I call forecasting!!!

    smich

    wow another Barnet member! It is very bad around here. Abandoned buses everywhere. I skidded down Hadley Road but fortunateley did not hit anything.

    East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    My area (East Barnet) has been without gas today due to a burst water pipe and there are hundreds if not thousands of homes around here in the same situation. It's cold in my house but at least it will be interesting to observe external temperatures with what I would expect is a greatly reduced heat island effect.

    It's already -1.8, the minimum tonight was meant to be -2

    East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Mikel Nimbus

    Really???? You lucky sausage!!!! Got b*%$£*!r all here apart from icy rain with the odd big flake. Seems like I just need to move out a few miles.

    That's very surprising Sno, and rather frustrating for you no doubt. :yahoo:

    As Wellington asked, what matches do you cover? Are you a football journo? If so, big up Barnet FC, we could do with a few more fans.

    *edit* just looked at your signature, that explains it.

    East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Phenomenal late evening event here in Ipswich...another 2" on top of the already deep snowcover (5" from Thurs-fri event). Some huge flakes for an hour did it! The telephone lines are now sagging even more under the weight of the snow! After spotting Icicles today i must say I have'nt seen anything like this since 1991!! :drunk: Is that a trough i see developing behind the main front i see on the radar? :yahoo:

    I've been following that feature aswell. It has developed well into a nicely organised band, however it has started thinning and ppn intensity is reducing. Doesn't mean it can't still grow however.

    A good night here in Barnet. At least an hour and a half of consistent snow, most of the roads now all covered with 3-4cms. Temp is at 0.6 and so far seems reluctant to fall, but thee are beginning to be a few gaps in the clouds.

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