GeorgeWX

This gif movie of Lasco c3 showing the expanding cloud, thanks to spaceweather. A full halo cloud of matter is visible post eruption meaning that we are well within the trajectory of the cme. NOAA forecasters still expect kp4 peak. They're on their own now as a couple of other forecasts suggest something bigger is afoot. Royal obs in Belgium updated this morning at around 9am and go for kp5-7, solen's morning report goes for kp4-9 (though they always keep the goal posts wide open). Also mentioned on the forecast of the latter is the high probability of a strong southward IMF (Bz) during the cme passage, due to the magnetic configuration of the active region(s) immediately prior to the eruption. A southward IMF serves to enhance earth effects and opens the door to a stronger geomagnetic storm. The expected arrival time of the main event is late on Saturday or possibly during the first half of Sunday. And I'll add this too, the x-ray flux chart again. It's quite staggering that this particular long duration event lasted around 20 hours. The most intense eruption of sc24 in my opinion, despite it only topping at M3.

Yes dullsville is certainly the feeling when watching all these interesting sunspots quietly rotating without so much as a squeak! But, there is some interesting developments happening right now. A few hours ago we see a large eruption coming from around sunspot 1402, this is the same region that CR mentions in the post above. Associated with todays eruption was a M3 flare. The cme looks super dense and of a moderate speed when looking at Stereo cor2, The Lascos are not long in and are confirming that this is indeed an earth directed event. NOAA give mention to the cme in their nightly forecast. They anticipate an 'active' geomagnetic field during the cme passage on 21/01. Translated that means a peak kp of 4. All other forecasters are yet to share their views. I believe that minor storming (kp5-6) sometime during the cme passage is very likely with good potential for more intense storming. The two reasons I think this is firstly, during todays event, there were in fact two earth directed cme's spaced an hour or two apart, the second cme can be seen scooping up the first on cor2 imagery as it is much faster. This should contribute to a higher density and stronger magnetic field within the moving mass of matter. The second reason is that yesterday we see two potential earth directed cme's that may brush past not long before the cme of interest is due to arrive. So, Saturday night would be a good time for clear skies, UK wide! I'll pop back on tomorrow evening the first chance I have and update with a more accurate arrival time and more views on the expected earth effects from the forecasters. I'll also source or compile a gif movie of the blast from Lasco c3 as it's a beauty. Today's sun Today's long duration flare measuring M3 on x-ray flux

I was cut short on my last post having to run a friend to the airport. Where I was going with the post was explaining (the best I can) how the Ap level has been known to have an effect on our weather. It is arguable whether solar flux or the sunspot count has a direct influence on our global climate, logic tells you it would as the sun is 'the' energy giver and any variable would influence something. Dozens of studies show that there is no or very little change in earth weather in immediate reaction to flux or sn changes. With Ap though it is a different story as there is some correlation between a high Ap number (15+) and less worldwide cloud cover, on the flip side there's also data that correlates low Ap number and higher levels of cloud cover. I said before that the Ap was the lowest of the 21st century, below is a historical graph of Ap values from 1844 to 2008. The only time I see both smoothed and monthly Ap get near to hitting the deck is during solar cycle 14 (1902-1913). Looking at the sunspot numbers comparing solar cycle 14 to the current it shows a different trend The sunspot count is trending with sc10 (1855-1867) which was a quiet cycle by modern standards, though we did have the largest ever recorded geomagnetic storm four years into the cycle. So will we see increased cloud cover and lower temps as a result of really low geomagnetic activity?

The geomagnetic storm due on 29/12 came with a far lesser impact than was expected. With broad agreement between all the players including noaa and sidc for at least minor geomagnetic storming it highlights the fact that everyone can be wrong at the same time and that our scientific knowledge of the sun-earth relationship is still in it's infancy. The speed of the cme when it arrived at earth was lower than expected at around 400km/s, One possible explanation could be the period before the cme arrival where wind speeds were around or even below 300km/s, causing a drag effect slowing down the ejecta much more than usual as it travels across the solar system. Sub 300km/s is incredibly slow for the solar wind. Also updated now is the monthly sunspot numbers and sfi, To see the graphs look on the previous page of this thread, the sn came out at 73 and sfi at 141. Both of these numbers represent a drop on the previous month (which we were expecting) but is still on track with the predictions for sc24. The graph that (to me) stands out and not on the previous page is noaa's Ap progression. Basically 'Ap' is similar in many ways to the better known 'kp', the main difference being that Ap is measured once daily and Kp measured 8 times daily, Both of these measurements reflect the state of our geomagnetic field. Shug touched on it recently how the kp level has been almost consistently at 0 or 1 for most of December, this observation is confirmed with a monthly Ap of just '2'. This matches the lowest Ap measurement of sc24 (Dec 09) which itself was the lowest Ap measurement of the 21st century

A slow news day perhaps? For us in the UK to get the chance to see aurora tonight there are a few factors to consider aside the weather. Firstly the arrival time of the 2nd cme is important, right now would be a good time as it gives europe and the uk front row seats during the peak of the geomagnetic storm that will occur for several hours after the cme arrives. If the expected cme arrives say at 1am uk time, the US will be best positioned for aurora and we are likely to miss out. The Northern Lights has the furthest southerly extent where it is local midnight time. The second factor is what influence the incoming cme has on our magnetic field as it sweeps in with the solar wind. Opposing magnetic fields would buffer the wind and shield the planet, resulting in a bit of a let down for anyone expecting a huge geomagnetic storm, or magnetic fields could connect, letting protons and electrons pour in to the north and south polar regions. Third is the speed and density of the wind as cme number 2 arrives. it should announce it's arrival with a wind speed above 6 or 700km/s as it left the solar surface at around 1000km/s and traveled along a clear path thanks to cme number 1. cme 1 arrived this morning at 9am and we are still under the effects of this. Despite the fact that our magnetic field is only slightly unsettled due to this first cme, the wind density is quite high at the moment which will further fuel the effects of the 2nd cme when it hits. Higher wind density = more protons and electrons = brighter aurora. It would be nice to see it arrive right now, failing that hold it till tomorrow around 7 or 8pm!!! If all that wasn't complicated enough then it's worth pointing out that the southern polar coronal hole has extended some distance to the north on the solar surface, to the degree that it will probably influence the incoming solar wind tomorrow, Friday and maybe even Saturday as well. Coronal holes are responsible for emitting faster than normal streams of wind that can weaken our magnetic field, causing the aurora to extend further south than usual. Combining the expected cme with the ch wind stream would result in a persistent period of minor to major storming. Best advice is to keep your eye on the ball during the next 24 hour period both on possible aurora activity as well as solar activity. If old sol spits any earth directed cme's during the next 12 hours it may result in aurora while toasting the new year. Southern polar coronal hole extending towards the solar equator.

Thanks guys its good to get back on and hope you all had a good Christmas. Three cme's in total are on route and as Yamkin states the first should arrive in the next 24 hours. cme 1 is a result of an unstable filament centrally located on the solar surface erupting early on xmas morning. We will detect the arrival of this cme but on it's own shouldn't influence our magnetic field too much as velocity (400km/s) and cloud density are both on the low side. cme number 2 is the game changer and has the potential to provoke major geomagnetic storming when it arrives. It is the result of a large filament eruption during the M4 flare around sunspot 1387 on Christmas day. A bright eruption and fast too, probably around 1000km/s, it will arrive sometime tomorrow a few hours after the first cme or both may arrive together in a tangled mess of magnetic complexity. Mid-latitude aurora is likely during the passage. Kp values between 5 and 6 likely and kp7 to 8 possible late tomorrow and during Thursday. cme number 3 emerged from around the area of earth facing sunspot 1384 on Boxing day with a full halo cme visible on Lasco c3. It should have enough energy to unsettle the magnetic field late on 29/12 or early 30/12 with potential for minor storming. Solar activity during this period was moderate with 3 flares measuring M1 or higher and 5 flares that measured above C5. Today's sun Sunspot and SFI graph for November/December

Plenty of flare action over the last 48 hours. On Christmas morning is a long duration C class flare with cme that is heading in our direction and a second C class flare occuring today at noon released another cme that looks like it's earth directed. The latter cme seems to be moving much faster than the first and is also more dense. I'll shortly be setting up a computer that works properly so will catch up with current events and post again later tonight.

Yes, the noaa data up to the start of December shows both smoothed sunspot number and solar flux above the most recent prediction for sc24, though the lull that we are in now is definitely a drop in activity and will be reflected in the graphs when they are next updated. The monthly solar flux for December should come out around 130ish. The sunspot number is looking like it's going to be near or slightly above 85. Still 12 more days of December so numbers could go up or down, but likely to be not by much. Here's 2 links showing the sfi and sunspot trend. http://www.swpc.noaa...arCycle/f10.gif http://www.swpc.noaa...cle/sunspot.gif

Hi folks, reading the morning news and this pops up. 7.1 quake hits Papa New Guinea. http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g_kBefKUvLuhjObjADSCcegoN_6A?docId=CNG.e2f990e1dee7615dae2edf14361897f2.5c1

Still plagued with computer problems here due to the slow death of my hard drive. At the moment I'm managing to salvage some functionality through safe mode and an old version of i.e. A good time to replace the machine will be right after xmas i think! Until then I can't access most solar related resources. From what I can see, it doesn't look like I missed very much, though the SFI and sunspot number remains above Nasa's predicted values.

Bit of a dramatic day so far here. The main street is littered with moss and smashed roof slates, the roof of my outhouse has peeled off like a tin lid. The wheelie bins are now strapped down as one of the empties managed to travel about 30 metres to the other side of the garden, even one of the wheelie bins filled with heavy rubble weighing well over 50kg managed to topple. The highest wind gust on my battered weather station so far is 71mph, several periods where the wind speed is persistant above 40mph.

Solar flux at 148 and sunspot number 137 The last 24 hours we see a hive of flare activity from sunspot 1348, soon to rotate out of view and sunspot 1346. Both regions responsible for M class flaring during the period. Several cme's were noted, most of which coming from around 1348 are unlikely to be geo-effective. Noaa's nightly summary mentions a potentially geo-effective filament eruption occuring at 20:30 from an area due south of 1343, however more analysis will be required to determine the direction. Today's sun

Solar flux at 155 and sunspot number around 150. The expected cme arrived around 6am on Saturday morning turning out to be much weaker than expected, the IMF also tilted northward for the duration of the cme passage. It's all turned out to be a bit of a disappointment really with 1339 transiting our side of the sun in a mainly uneventful fashion. All hope is not lost though as there are some huge prominences to behold. The largest of these magnetic filaments stretches halfway across the sun from the NW limb, if it pops in the coming days it could head in our direction, see the red wavelength pic below. All other sunspot groups have been mostly inactive over the last few days. Today's sun Large prominences

Movie of Lasco c3 showing the cme relating to the M1 flare. Other cme activity that is not earth directed can be seen from both the western limb and the SE quadrant. The latest noaa space weather forecast (issued 5 minutes ago) upgrades the expected effects on our magnetic field from active to minor storm conditions on 12/11.

The sunspot number for November 9th came in at 220, a new record high for this solar cycle, today's sunspot number is 208. Solar flux for the last 3 days has been around the 180 mark which is technically a record high value for this solar cycle if it were not for the flare induced SFI measurement of 24/09 that came in at 190. Forecasters believe there are 2 unrelated cme's due to pass us in the next 24-36 hours. The first left the sun early on 08/11 and is a faint, slow moving cme caused by a filament eruption around 1339. The second is a much faster, and more dense cme related to yesterday's M1 flare. The eruption source was a large filament located between 1342 and 1343. The arrival of the 2 cme's will be grouped together very closely with good potential for major geomagnetic storming during the passage. Today's sun

Today's sunspot number 135 and the offical solar flux for 07/11 at 177. Huge AR1339 continues to regularly spit out C and M class flares, the largest a M3.7 yesterday morning. Along with the flare was a small halo cme, orientated north of the sun-earth path, with this one a miss is more likely than a hit. The large sunspot region shrunk slightly to around 1250 millionths when measured yesterday evening, the most recent measurement just taken shows that 1339 has maintained this size over the last day. More M class flaring is likely during the next 24 hours with a possibility of another X class event. Seldom mentioned sunspot group 1338 was itself responsible for 4 C class flares in the last day. Further C class flaring is likely from 1338 with a small possibility of an M class flare. Several new active regions have appeared over the limb, each one a reasonable size. It has now become clearer why there was a back-sided cme when 1339 emitted the X2 flare, the source of the eruption would have been one of the newly numbered regions, 1341 or 1342. 1341 and 1342 have not shown much activity today but it does look like 1342 has sufficent magnetic complexity for M class events. Region 1340 looks quiet and should remain so. Today's sun

Filtered images of today's sun shows huge sprawling magnetic filaments just beyond the eastern limb, a lot of activity going on. What's lurking will become visible in the next 24-36 hours, amongst the chaos there may be another large sunspot region. In progress at the moment yet another large flare, currently measuring M3 and rising.

Today's sunspot number at 161. Solar flux measured today at 8pm was also 161. Sunspot 1339 has grown in size during the last 24 hours to an area now covering 1540 millionths. By sheer coincidence this was the same size as old sunspot 720 at it's peak. After last night's X class flare the region calmed slightly, however in the last 6 hours activity has started to pick up once again with an M1 flare at around 20.40, the background x-ray flux is trending towards more M-X class flaring. M class activity is likely and severe flares above X5 are possible during the next 24 hours from 1339. Any cme's resulting from strong flaring are likely to be at least partially earth directed. Region 1338 has remained relatively quiet, only C class flaring during the next 24 hours with a slight chance of M class activity. A minor shock was detected on ace at 20.50, likely to be the arrival of the weak cme mentioned in response to Ladyofthestorm. At the moment earth effects are minimal with no obvious signs that any geomagnetic storming will take place. Based on current solar wind and magnetic field measurements at ace, the maximum potential of the incoming cme is conditions around k3-k4. If that changes I will update, for the moment there's nothing to get excited about unless you are north of 58N. Today's sun X-ray flux for last 3 days, activity around 1339 dominates the graph.

Lasco c3 confirms the cme that was concurrent with the X2 flare is not heading in our direction. Last night's stereo beacon data was showing this to be a predominantly back-sided event despite the positioning of 1339 on the earth side of the sun. It does suggest that the X class flare triggered a large cme possibly from another region yet to appear over the limb. Alternatively, it's possible that 1339 has/had large filaments connecting it with another active region beyond the limb. I've put together a movie of the cme from Lasco c3, click to play.

There may be a chance for you to see a display tomorrow night as a flank hit from a previous cme is possible. Spells of k4-5 if the cme passage comes to fruition, meaning you could see something from your location up there in sunny Skye. Keep a wee eye on the magnetometer. Also worth a mention, Sunspot 1339 is now the largest active region since January 2005 according to Noaa. 00.30 update shows:- Aerial coverage of AR1339 at 1400 millionths and current location 57E. Old sunspot 1302 was also a monster sized active region but at it's largest was only 1300 millionths. The active region of January 2005 that is currently trumping 1339 was numbered 702, it was responsible for several earth directed X class flares the largest measuring X7, as well as several periods of major and severe geomagnetic storming. Image of 702 by Pete Lawrence Lasco c3 capturing an earthbound cme related to X3 class solar flare from sunspot 702 on 17/01/05 The largest sunspot ever recorded during April 1947. This active region lingered for several months and at it's largest measured around 6000 millionths.

Ray is correct for the most part. The chance of cme's coming our direction rises significantly when eruptions emanate from between 60E and 20W on the solar disk. The location of sunspot 1339 at the time of the recent X class flare is around 64E, It is currently entering a geo-effective position. The most recent stereo imagery shows a sizeable cme lifting that could be related to this flare, Very much a preliminary conclusion but it looks like on this occasion the majority of the cme is not heading in our direction, a small portion of the eruption might be however. Once the Lasco c3 imagery rolls in then we will be able to attain the direction more clearly. A large and bright filament eruption is seen on Stereo A, earth is to the left of the sun. On Stereo B the faint edge of the cme is just beginning to appear, from this satellite's position earth is to the right of the sun. Current positioning of Nasa's Stereo A and B. In the last 15 minutes another flare measuring M2.1 coming from 1339. As Stereo continues to update it's becoming clear that the cme related to the X class flare is moving fast, probably upwards of 1000km/s.

X1.9 flare from active region 1339 at 20.20

Sunspot number 109, Solar flux 154. 1339 still looking very active. Yet another M class flare early this afternoon (M2) and a likely cme. In terms of aerial coverage this region is comparable in size to old sunspot 1302 but has much larger penumbrae and opposing magnetic polarities are compacted together very tightly, the perfect recipe for powerful flares. The largest flare of solar cycle 24 comes in at X7, the culprit being sunspot 1263 on 09/08/11, 1339 has the potential to beat that record with ease. Today's sun 1339 close up.

Yep, quietly confident here that one of those large regions will spit out some earthbound cme's, the main contender is 1339, around 20 C class flares and 4 M class flares from this sunspot group alone since Monday. Most recent flare from 1339 is also the largest yet, M4.3 at 2150, We'll need to wait another 24 to 36 hours for this active region to rotate to a more geo-effective position, fingers crossed that it keep's performing. We could see some X class flaring from 1339. Also worth mentioning, the level of activity around earth facing sunspot 1334 has petered out since the last update and is quietly decaying away to a single spot. M4.3 flare from 1339. Today's sun

Today's sunspot number is 80 and solar flux at 127. Solar activity between 27/10 and this morning has been low, however that is expected to change as the farside active regions mentioned in the last post are now beginning to appear over the eastern limb. These active regions have announced their arrival with a trio of flares this evening, A C8 and 2x M1 flares. Active region 1330 held a lot of promise during this rotation but has only produced C class flaring and a single faint CME. The region continues to decay, a slight chance of M class flaring as there is still some polarity intermixing, only C class activity is likely. Any cme's from this region have a low chance of being earth directed. The last 24-36 hours we see a new active region rapidly forming and has been numbered 1334, M class flaring is possible during the next 24 hours if this incredible rate of growth continues. Any cme activity from this region during the next 48 hours is likely to have an earth directed component. Today's sun X-ray flux showing rising activity during today culminating in this evening's M class flaring.