GeorgeWX

Yes that is quite often the case immediatly after a cme hits, earths magnetic field starts a battle while the incoming solar wind battering us peels away the skins of protection, during this time the auroral band remains in a repressed state. What I want to see develop on the land based magnetometers is a collapse in the nT measurement over the next 2 or 3 hours as the solar wind takes control. Down to 1000nT on the aurorawatch magnetometer would likely amount to conditions around the kp8 level. This is what I expect to see happening this evening...if i were to stay sat in front of the computer, which I'm not

I think i discussed with you before that the accuracy of this map is questionable. I have witnessed several aurora during geomagnetic storms measuring kp5 from here in ayrshire. The map is good at helping people understand the principle of storm intensity in relation to your location but the kp threshold lines are around 150-200 miles too far north

It looks like this geomagnetic storm has a lot of potential, readings on the ace spacecraft show the strength of the magnetic field is around 3 times stronger than the 1st cme hit late last night. Solar wind speeds are also well up compared to the first cme hit. A little premature to say for sure but I think there is enough energy to provoke severe geomagnetic storming (kp8 to kp9). The forecasted 'kp7' will occur. http://www.swpc.noaa..._SWEPAM_6h.html I also look forward to the solar wind speed and density updating on the soho spacecraft, it provides more reliable numbers than ace, but only updates every few hours. http://umtof.umd.edu/pm/ I still stand by the statement that i made earlier - tonight (and maybe tomorrow night) will be the best opportunity to see the aurora over the uk for several years. i'll be driving a few miles south to a location free of light pollution once the sun goes down, the drive is well worth it. edited to add............... ok check out that whacking great spike on the aurorawatch magnetometer that has happened in the last 2 or 3 minutes. That's big! The biggest 'sudden storm commencement' since 2007 in my opinon. A very hopeful initial sign of major storming and uk wide auroral activity. http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/

roughly speaking 53N is a west/east line from north Wales across Nottingham. This might be the peak of (earth directed) solar activity for a month or so, one side of the sun is more active than the other and it takes 4 weeks for one solar rotation to occur, however that doesnt mean that this time next month there will be another chance for uk aurora viewing. Make the most of this opportunity.

We have 3 earthbound clouds of plasma, the latter one is travelling at a ridiculously fast speed, forecasters believe the 3rd solar flare/cme will scoop up the other 2 en-route. This doesnt look to be the case as cme number 1 looks to have arrived and currently causing active/minor storming. cme's 2 and 3 should arrive in the coming 12 hours and provoke much stormier conditions. All this on top of an enhanced wind stream from a large coronal hole means there's a good chance of some kind of display tonight (the next few hours) in the northern half of Scotland and Friday night (possibly) uk wide but certainly as far south as 53N. The geomagnetic storm could last through Saturday as well depending on how severe it is. There is always fluctuations in the grid during geomagnetic storms, power companies will be well aware of the incoming storm and watch the grid, the very worst case scenario is sections of the grid get shut town for short periods of time. I dont expect any kind of mobile cell tower meltdown or sparks flying from the plug sockets. We did quite well during the last solar cycle and survived a number of 'severe' geomagnetic storms measuring kp8-9 between the years 2000 and 2005.

Very exciting stuff, the best chance for uk aurora viewing for several years i assure you. Initial forecasts were predicting a likely max kp (storm severity) of 7 on a scale 0-9. If a kp7 geo storm were to pass (which i feel it will) then aurora would be visible in the north sky right down to around 53N and overhead for Scotlanders. however...... The most recent forecast issued by noaa in the last hour hints at periods of 'major' and 'severe' storming. Major/severe storming gives kp values 7 to 9, a kp9 aurora is the maximum and during such an event everybody in northern europe would see some auroral activity. . No matter where in the uk you are there's a real possibility of catching an excellent display, i wouldn't be surprised if the rarer red aurora pays us a visit due to the density of plasma within the 3 notable M-class flare/cme's. It's worth noting a recent spiking deviation (20nT) on the magnetometer in the last couple of hours, this could be cme number 1 arriving. The major storming is likely on the arrival of the m9 flare/cme (the 3rd flare)travelling along a clear path towards earth at a speedy 2100km/s. Also worth watching is a youtube vid published in the last hour by the noaa space weather researchers speaking about the incoming cme's

Another youtube video with analysis from a NASA solar physicist. and Lasco c3 movie of the blast

After a period of 'relative' calm over the last 6 weeks solar activity is once again on an upward trend. Last Saturday night CME effects from C class flares passed earth inducing the aurora as far south as 54N in Europe and 43N over the USA, KP values peaked at 6 with several regional kp values of 7 reported. From Ayrshire a bright green band was visible to the north from around 1am on Sunday morning through the gaps in the cloud but was unfortunately too thick for a clear view of the arc. More recently there has been some exciting activity on the solar surface with an epic sized prominance eruption. M2.5 was recorded on the x-ray flux. In my view this is easily the most impressive CME in the last 5 years. Youtube vid with several different wavelengths. Predictions for the CME's arrival time range from 10am 09/06 to 4pm 10/06, uk time. Spaceweather reports the chance of a 'glancing' blow due to the position of the eruption but my guess is that it will be more of a full frontal hit and provoke a long duration (24h+) geomagnetic storm with an average kp level of 4 and a peak kp level of 7. Definately one to watch out for.

The geomagnetic storm is still ongoing this evening, the most recent planetery kp value was 6, Current activity on the uk magnetometer is still disruptive with notable deviation in the magnetic field. There's potential for a local k-index of 7 at the moment, auroral activity could reach as far south as 52N between now and the coming hour or two.

Just hearing word that the quake has been upgraded yet again to 9.1.

Geomagnetic activity is stirring up this evening with local magnetometers currently recording a disruption typical of kp5 conditions.

Looking at the Lasco c2 images there does appear to be a cme. Its not a brilliant ball of ejected plasma like some of the recent limb events, It looks faint and rather slow. Ejected matter can be seen heading outwards towards lasco indicating a possible full halo event. A look at lasco c3 imagery would confirm this but it's not available to view online at the moment x1 flare cme

X1.5 flare from earth facing region AR1166 in the last 15 minutes.

I too wonder if we will enter a sustained period of high solar activity. The next couple of months will reveal whether it's short lived or more of a long term trend. The image below is taken during a long duration M4.4 flare lasting over 5 hours associated with a bright CME eruption, this time from AR1165. Still ongoing. Very impressive explosion

Further analysis on yesterdays solar activity has been carried out. There were several M class flares including 2 of particular interest, both responsible for bright CME's. The first CME came from 1166 a region located close to the centre of the disk, this one is earthbound with an estimated velocity of around 700km/s. The second CME came from 1164 which is near the western limb. This one appears to be fast and fierce with a travelling speed of over 2000km/s. Despite this region's position near the sun's limb, an earthbound halo CME appears on Lasco C2 and C3 from this event. It is likely that the cme number 2 will overtake cme 1 en route to earth. Minor geomagnetic storming is likely to commence 30-40 hours from now with severe geomagnetic activity (kp7-kp9) a real possibility. The SFI at 8pm yesterday (the standard time for recording this measurement) came out at a ridiculously high 938, polluted by strong flare activity. As a result of this, the SFI measurement taken at 5pm yesterday will be used instead as the official figure, 153 sfu - another record for this solar cycle. Solar activity remains very high indeed, as I type there has just been yet another flare measuring M5.3. M1.9 flare and CME from 1166 M3.7 flare and CME from 1164

Yesterdays official SFI was 143, that should be trumped today by a figure nearer 150 due to very high solar activity. We have had 2 long duration M-class flares, first event from AR 11166 measuring M1.9 at 2pm today emitting a bright cloud of plasma, the edge of which might brush past our magnetosphere. The second flare is ongoing with a peak of M3.7 from region 11164, there appears to be a bright CME from this region as well though it is not earth directed. Image of ongoing M3 flare.

Todays SFI should come out at around 147 which would be another high for sc24, the background flux for today is within C class. nice pic Leekay, 11164 is turning into a beauty. Its only a matter of time before we see a major flare coming from there.

Through the course of this afternoon there has been a geomagnetic storm measuring kp6. The storm has persisted throughout and looks set to continue over the next hour at least. Locations north of 56N should see some auroral activity to the north-east horizon at the moment. As we get closer to midnight the aurora may be visible as far south as Yorkshire if storming at this level continues.

The general consensus among the experts is that even during very quiet solar cycles, short periods of high activity are to be expected. Whether this is a short lived spike or a more prolonged spell of higher solar activity remains to be seen. All should become much clearer in the next couple of months. M3.5 flare from the active region emerging on the eastern limb @ 730am, lovely image.

Early heads up for a spell of elevated geomagnetic activity starting around the 3rd/4th of March. We have a very large coronal hole that will become geo-effective around 28/02, The last 2 rotations this coronal hole has not disappointed with kp values of 5 and 6 respectively. The images on Stereo-B show us that it has retained it's size during the last rotation There is also a very active region just to the east of said coronal hole so I would anticipate periods of minor storming sometime between 3/3 and 4/3 from the C.H and maybe some more if the active region hits us with a sneeze.

The only other time of the whole year that there was elevated geomagnetic activity was between the 2nd and the 6th of May 86, (a very long duration for stormy conditions). It wasn't a 'kp9' mega-storm like what you seen in 2001, but would be sufficient to see activity possibly 40-50 degrees above the north horizon, perhaps even brief periods where it was higher. The peak rating on 3 of the 5 days reached kp7. Of course I'm assuming that you were located in Wales at the time of the 86 sighting.

You're right, we are well overdue, this spike in solar activity has caught a lot of people by surprise, who knows what the next month or two will bring. SFI (solar flux index) broke a new 'solar cycle 24' record yesterday at 125. A very good sign that things are really hotting up. There isn't much data going back to 1986 that is easy to access online, I do have some paperwork that lists the kp values of geomagnetic storms back as far as 1937. In the whole year of 86, which was a quiet one for solar activity, there were 2 'mega-storms' (Events that measure KP9 on the geomagnetic richter scale). First one happened on the 8th February and the second which was a shorter duration storm occurred on the 12th of September. Do those dates bring back any memories for you? Edit: Sorry I've just noticed you said March 86... Nothing notable happened during March unless possibly you were at a high latitude location. (far north of Scotland etc..)

It was a few years before I took an interest on the subject but for me that date really sticks out as I've read a lot of literature about solar activity during the max of cycle 23. What would be most notable around the date you mention is AR9393, a complex, monster sized sunspot region. This region was responsible for a chart topping X20 flare. The eruption occured just as the sunspot disappeared over the sun's western limb on 2/4/01, so earth was spared by that particular event, but a few days earlier there was a number of earth directed CME's, the largest produced by an X1 flare. The result of this incredibly dense, earth directed cloud of plasma was a severe geo-storm measuring kp9 on the 31/3/01. BBC 30/3/01 nasa spaceweather archive 31/3 Developing sunspot video of x20 flare erupting from suns limb, 2/4/01 Image of the aurora over Nice, France 01/4/01 Image of the aurora over Mainz, Germany 31/3/01

I think the ace satellite might have detected another incoming CME within the last 5 minutes. Apologies if I'm wrong. The ace satellite is 1 hour upstream so a delay before any earth disturbance is expected The geo-storm peaked at kp6, I believe you are looking at these figures which are averaged over a period of three hours. See here

The map you posted of kp values and their southern extent is accurate, though I believe that it would only be valid around the time of local midnight when the aurora is at its strongest. It also makes no reference to horizon aurora and it's worth pointing that out. If you are located at, say, Newcastle, the time is 12am or thereabouts and a geo-storm measuring KP7 was occurring, then the full sky from west to east and 90 degrees above your head would be filled with streaks or curtains of visible auroral rays. Therefore, an overhead aurora. At that exact same moment, Onlookers located as far as 400 miles south would see the same aurora, but lower down in the northern horizon. The same 400 mile 'horizon aurora' rule applies regardless of the kp value. Here's an image that illustrates this, This example is during a kp5 disturbance at local midnight. The single green line represents the most southerly point where you can see this aurora on the northern horizon