GeorgeWX

Today's sunspot number is 167. A new record high for solar cycle 24. The large active area of magnetism that incorperates 1295 and 1296 has now rotated to a geo-effective position, This region has maintained it's size since tracking started around 2 weeks ago. In the last 48 hours, several new spots have emerged within the area and multiple C class flaring during the period as well. I would place the possibility of earth directed CME's over the next 48 hours from the large active region (1295, 1296, 1298) at 90%+ Early on 14/9 a cme was observed from around the area of sunspot 1289, Lasco c2 and c3 show a full halo cme, It looks slow and not very dense, it will have effect on our geomagnetic field when passing but conditions are unlikely to exceed minor storm levels. Probable k4, possible k5. Arrival should be sometime in the next 12-18 hours. Short movie from spaceweather.com showing the development of 1295, 1296 and 1298. http://spaceweather..../sunspotevo.gif

Yes a few months ago many were unsure exactly where this solar cycle was going to end up, the main worry was a possible re-run of a maunder minimum type cycle. However what we have seen over the last 9 months is highly variable activity, one minute the sunspot number is over 100, the next it's less than 20. The same pattern of up and down swings can be seen on other solar data as well, not just the ssn. The cause of the large swings in the data is due to the lack of active regions on the sun. In short, one half of the sun is more active than the other. During one solar rotation we get to see both of the halves. However what has happened in the last month is both 'halves' of the sun are now demonstrating a more equal level of activity, as well as an increase in activity overall. I mentioned a while back that this cycle is showing characteristics that resemble sc10 (1855-1867 ) and sc14 (1902-1913), that particular trend continues for the moment.

Geomagnetic activity is now settling due to subsiding effects from the ch stream, expectations were met with average planetery kp of 4 and peak planetery kp of 5. Earth facing sunspot 1289 has remained quiet overall with a 25% reduction in size over the last 48 hours. The region of interest which is recently appeared over the limb continues to show aggression, around 80% of the huge area is now on the earth facing 'half' of the sun. So far there have been several long duration (cme related) C class flares including a C9.9. Individual sunspots within the area are small in relation to 1289 but the overall area is continuing to demonstrate a very high level of activity. M class flaring is likely to happen around this area of active magnetism, X class flaring is also possible (a lot more likely than the 1% chance that NOAA are forecasting!). Currently numbered sunspots within this area include 1295 and 1296. There remains the chance of a hit from the filament eruptions that left the sun on 10th-11th September, the likely outcome would be conditions amounting to kp4-5 for a short period of time.

I think the best estimates so far of Carrington type events is roughly every 500 years, mainly using ice core samples. A lot of variables would have been in play around those days prior to and during that particular geomagnetic storm, The initial shock from the CME was off the scale, One factor perhaps being several major earth directed CME's in the days before the September 1st flare, clearing the sun-earth path. What we do know is that the Carrington flare event is not the fastest in terms of sun-earth transit time, it took just over 17.5 hours. The fastest flare to date happened in August 1972 taking only 14 and a half hours to transit the 93 million miles. What we also know is during the geomagnetic storm on the 2nd of September 1859, the most southerly reported sighting of aurora was at 20N, However during the geomagnetic storm of 4th of February 1872, there was confirmed aurora at 19N and several people reported aurora as far south as 3N!!! The furthest south the aurora has managed to get during the 20th century was 28N occuring in 1958, The only other time that the aurora got south of 30N was during the 1989 geomagnetic storm, the one famed for blowing Quebec's grid. (29N) I'm not doubting that the 1859 event was huge, it certainly was. But there have been several sun-earth events since 1859 that (at least) come close. Remember it was on that day that solar science was really born, there was very little solar data around the world recording the carrington flare and it's after effects.

Tonight's NOAA report is out, they mention that sunspot 1289 is showing signs of decay, but at the moment remains large. I wouldn't dismiss the possibility of M-class flaring from this region in the coming 24 hours. They also confirm the arrival of the ch wind stream around 2pm UTC. There is no mention of today's filament eruption from around the region of earth facing sunspot 1289. In terms of forecasted earth effects NOAA now believe that tomorrow and Tuesday the geomagnetic field will be unsettled to active (k3-k4) with potential for minor storming (k5-6). They mention yesterday's filament eruption may be geo-effective.

the solar wind readings are indicitive of an influance from that large coronal hole mentioned earlier, we should be feeling the 'breeze' for at least the next 24-36 hours. Another deja vu moment as there seems to be a second large filament eruption coming from centre disk, looking at all the imagery available it looks like this time it may have originated from earth facing sunspot 1289, and again like the last filament eruption, the solar x-ray flux made little response during the event. We'll see what NOAA say when their daily report is issed (22:00 UTC). It's looking a lot to me like this will be aimed well towards our planet. Also i'll post up 2 solar images, at the same two wavelengths as the images I posted this morning, comparing them to this evenings images it brings it home just how active the region on the limb really is. I would like to wait another few hours until I can directly see the sunspot configuration before saying that it is capable of severe flaring (X5+) at it's current state. The possibility of impressive limb flaring exists as well as earth directed proton storms during any such event.

The activity we were seeing yesterday from 4pm through to the late evening looks to me like the effects from another cme. There may have perhaps been a very brief opportunity to see the NL between 10 and 11pm and you were north of 55N. I was eager to see the daily NOAA space weather report and forecast to see if they say anything about (or have even noticed) the large filament eruption from somewhere centre disk, I also wanted to know their thoughts on possible geomagnetic effects from the coronal hole wind stream that's expected to arrive in the next 24 hours. They do report on the filament eruption but are still analysing its 'potential geo-effectiveness, no more is said on that subject. They forecast a period of 'unsettled' conditions during the passage of the coronal hole wind stream, in layman's terms 'unsettled' is conditions equating to kp3, I disagree. The ch's influance will cause a peak kp of 5 with a dominant kp of 4 ('active' to 'minor storm' levels) because of the coronal hole's size and depth. That is of course presuming that the filament eruption from yesterday and any other recent 'possible' earth directed cme activity does NOT co-incide with the ch wind stream's presence. If there is an overlapping period where the incoming solar wind has influance from both the 'ch' and any cme's then periods of minor storming (k5-6) is very likely and a period of major storming (kp7) is possible. Final update on the large active region that is (for not much longer) on the farside of the sun. This morning's gong farside map shows a growth in size which was not my expectation, recent farside eruptions were a good reason for this area to start decaying as it probably did over the last 48 hours but today's gong tells a different story. This large active area is now close enough to the limb that we can see huge filaments spread out over a large area possibly towering more than 100,000 km from the solar surface. Below are images of the sun taken in two different wavelengths, the first is a wavelength suited to detecting the larger active magnetic filaments, the second is a good wavelength for detecting limb flares and very active areas of magnetism on the edges of the disk. Click on 'em to zoom and take a look. not long now!!!! Also forgot to add, sunspot 1289 is currently positioned well for earth directed activity and has grown to quite an impressive size, throughout the course of yesterday I believe there was some C class flaring. To me it feels a little 'deja vu' when comparing to 1283 (the sunspot recently responsible for several M/X class flares). If growth continues around this region and it continues it's trend of forming a more chaotic magnetic structure then it will be capable of some major flaring very soon.

With confidence I can now say that this geomagnetic storm is subsiding!!! Attached is the uk magnetometer showing that sharp 50nT deviation around one hour after I wrote the last post, circled in red, the storm after the calm after the storm. Todays lasco/stereo imagery is showing what could be a large filament eruption coming from around the centre portion of the sun and is possible verging on likely that there is a cme with an earth directed component as a result of the eruption. The x-ray flux doesn't detect much in the way of flaring and the sunspots at the centre of the disk 'appear' to be infant in size and not capable of much This might co-incide or arrive during the period we expect an already unsettled magnetic field (due to coronal hole effects). The two of these combined might be enough for some periods of major geomagnetic storming. Also to look forward to is more potential geomagnetic storming coming from the flanks of the more recent cme's. Sunspot 1289 is remaining quiet but has grown consistently since appearing over the limb several days ago and is capable of M-class flaring, as it's magnetic canopy gets ever more complex the risk of X-class flares increases, for at least the next 3-4 days any cme's from this region are likely to have effect on our geomagnetic field. Another update on the mythical large active region on the farside I've been bleating on about for over a week... The seismic map still shows an area larger and more complex than the already large sunspot 1289, But overall a slight reduction in size i think due to some recent massive eruptions. And an image from nasa's stereo behind. Looking at the sun 'side on' we can the the large active region on the centre of the disk'. This active region will appear over the limb in the next day or two, I'm looking forward to that.

ok so minutes after saying that the magnetic field is stabalizing we have data coming in suggesting a large substorm is on it's way. The 'Goes' satellites are around one hour upstream and monitor the magnetic field in real time. The magnetometers on the satellite indicate a sharp drop of 50nT in the last hour. Land based magnetometers should to some degree respond in the same way very soon. A second spell of mild to moderate geomagnetic storming could imminently be on the cards.

I would say that it's worth a look if you are north of the Midlands, only if the skies to the north are clear and it's not much hassle for you to get to a good viewpoint. The geomagnetic storm has reduced to levels typical of kp3/4 but sub-storm activity is very likely during the optimum uk aurora viewing time (the next 3-4 hours) I'm quite confident that some great opportunities will arise for uk aurora viewing this autumn/winter. All that's needed is to be on your toes and know when it's going to happen. Very cloudy here unfortunately, It seems the same for the bulk of the uk. That image you posted it's a handy tool to use alongside other data but dont give the size of the aurora on the image too much weight, the satellite that collects this data takes around 45 minutes to complete one image (one polar pass). The aurora can move a lot during that time. The magnetic field looks to be in a state of recovery indicating the cme has passed. What we just don't know for sure is how many of those large cme inducing flares that came from sunspot 1283 have an earth directed component. The possibility of further cme shocks exists during the next 24-48 hours and the arrival of the wind stream from the large coronal hole arrives in the next 36-48 hours.

A shockwave has just been detected by land based magnetometers indicating the arrival of the cme.

The potentially huge sunspot on the farside of the sun is still very much alive 'n' kicking according to today's gong seismic images. Just compare the magnetism of the active region that's still on the farside with the level of magnetic activity coming from the largest sunspots on the earth facing side of the sun. This region of interest will emerge over the eastern limb in the next 3-4 days. Today's NOAA forecast reports that the most recent X class flare from sunspot 1283 doesn't appear to have any earth directed component. The active region most capable of earth directed activity is now 1289 which has shown development over the last 24 hours and becoming more complex, if growth continues then it will hold potential for M class flares. Tomorrow evening/Saturday morning we should detect the arrival of the first cme's (M5/X2) with auroral activity possible for the northern half of the UK during the cme passage. Sometime on Sunday or Monday the coronal hole's influence on the solar wind will pass us, possibly sparking it's own minor geomagnetic storm and bringing the aurora over the northern half of the UK once again. Good time for an ex-hurricane to pay us a visit eh...

Tonight's noaa forecast predicts that the eruption relating to the X2 flare is travelling at around 800km/s, very much middle of the field in terms of cme speed but still nearly twice as fast as the cme released during the M5 flare, They anticipate the arrival of the cme sometime during Friday evening, they also anticipate minor geomagnetic storming (kp5-6) during the cme passage. More recently we have had yet another X class flare from sunspot 1283 around 3 hours ago, early reports are suggesting another cme has lifted from the solar surface but it will be several hours before we know just how much of the eruption is earth directed. Taking a quick look at the x-ray flux it would appear that there is a significant cme as a result of this flare, the length of time it has taken for the x-ray flux to return to base levels is about 3 hours, such eruptions are known as LDE's (long duration event).

Well bear in mind that it was only 5 weeks ago that we had a pair of M-class flares both with cme's resulting in some major geomagnetic storming. The northern lights were visible in Germany and France that night. The reason that last months storm reached severe levels was due to a cannibal cme effect, where the second cme caught up with the first cme whilst on route to earth. Moving ahead to current events, The cme released during the M5 class flare is predicted to be slow at 450km/s, The second cme related to the X2 class flare is very likely to be travelling at a faster pace and should swallow up matter from cme number one, much like what happened last month. NOAA have still to issue any detailed analysis of the X2 flare and related cme. It might be their next daily forecast (22:00) that we get some more information. Yes the core of both cme's may be heading north of the ecliptic plane but both cme's are likely to have earth directed components meaning that there will be some kind of geomagnetic disturbance. I think that a spell of minor geomagnetic storming (kp5-6) is very likely once the cme's pass by, very soon after their effect on the geomagnetic field wanes then the high speed wind stream from the large coronal hole will arrive sparking it's own minor geo-storm. It's whether or not the incoming bullet has enough punch for storming to reach the kp8 threshold once again, that's the big question. This image clearly shows the extent of the large coronal hole, it will be earth facing in the next 24-36 hours and it's influence on the solar wind will reach our shores a further 48-72 hours later.

It seems that my hunch may have been incorrect as the low res stereo images are showing a cme lifting off the solar surface in response to the X2 flare.

Large X2 class flare from sunspot 1283 in the last 45 mins, it will be a couple of hours before we know for sure if there is any related cme, my hunch is that this is just an impulsive flare and not capable of major geomagnetic storming. It looks like there were 2 simultaneous solar flares, the M5 from 1283 and another flare measuring circa M1 from the western limb which emitted a very bright ball of plasma making the job of identifying any earthbound matter from the M5 flare that little bit harder. It's very likely that the cme related to the M5 flare has an earth directed trajectory. NOAA's daily space weather forecast determines that the earth directed cme is slow at 450km/s, it will be a couple of days before it reaches us.

Earth directed sunspot 1283, the region which has shown slow but steady growth over the last 4-5 days has 'let one off' in style with what looks to be an M5.3 solar flare at around 2am - 06/09. With very little information available at this moment it's not easy to determine whether there is an associated cme or not. Going by the x-ray flux alone the eruption seems more than just a brief flash of light, suggesting an ejection of plasma has occured. If that is the case then we will see the effects of this one as it passes earth. Having quick look at the nasa sdo images 'post-eruption', 1283 still looks fiesty and holds on to large towering magnetic filaments. More M class activity is possible from this region. Beyond that, the large coronal hole (ch475) has remained in it's slightly decayed state and is now near enough in full 'earth' view, It is still well established and reasonably large in size, behind that and soon to emerge over the limb in the coming 24 hours is another active region that looks similar in size to earth facing sunspot 1283, already we can see massive filaments stretching out from the eastern limb..... This reasonably sized sunspot is in FRONT of the 'potential' monster sunspot region, that is trailing around 5-6 days behind - this morning's update on that potentially huge active area on the farside is that it may have grown even larger and according to todays sciesmic data, is more magnetically complex. With 1283 finally churning out mid M class flares, the expected 'ch', and the 2 active regions on the farside appearing soon, the next 14 days might turn out to be fruitful for ham's and aurora hunters... and terrifying for the 'doomers'!!! just to add, a very premature conclusion to make... but according to the most recent stereo image there looks to be a cme of at least 'notable' size. those early images have been uploaded to youtube... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9ZmSRG10LQ&feature=player_embedded

I was looking at some archived data as to the earth effects of the large coronal hole (now numbered CH475) that has just emerged over the eastern horizon of the solar disk, during the last 4 solar rotations since its birth. Geomagnetic disturbance date/maximum kp rating during disturbance 13/08/11 kp4 18/07/11 kp5 22/06/11 kp4 27/05/11 kp6 Come the 10th of the month it will be clearer just what effect the high speed wind streams coming from this coronal hole are likely to have on our planet. if i were to put on a bet as things stand today then 3/2 it hits kp4 or higher, 2/1 on kp5 and 4/1 on kp6... all based on what todays stereo b image shows, also remember any cme activity around the coronal hole (even from lowly c class flares) will enhance the geomagnetic field even further as the wind stream passes our planet. view of the sun from Stereo 'Behind' satellite showing the very active region on the farside and the coronal hole that is transisting the limb towards the earth facing side of the solar surface View from earth in a light spectrum that identifies magnetic filaments on sunspots and coronal holes.

Today see's several C class flares and a single M3 flare and cme from around the area of old sunspot 1280 which has just dissapeared over the western limb. Earth is not in the line of fire for any of these but the instrumentation onboard nasa's stereo A craft might detect the M3 related cme as it passes. AR1283 is positioned well for earthbound directed activity during the next 48 hours, the region has continued to develop further but so far remains quite stable, that could very easily change in the coming day or two. The area of interest on the farside of the sun still appears large in size but it will be at least 6 ot 7 days before it emerges over the limb. The large coronal hole is now over the eastern limb but appears to have decayed slightly, if it hangs around it will be at an earth directed position on the 10th-11th September. Today's noaa sunspot number comes in at 139, i think the highest for a few months at least. (just quickly double checked it looks like the second highest daily sunspot number for this solar cycle. The highest being 153 recorded on the 13th of April this year).

i'll add 2 images that should update regularly, enabling you to keep track of developments. First is the stereo image mentioned above, the second is the gong farside image which is compiled using seismic data to estimate activity on the other side of the sun, laid out in the same grid format as the nasa stereo image. i'll copy/paste more info below. The farside maps are based on an analysis of sound wave travel time variations, with locations of shorter travel times appearing darker. These darker regions indicate locations where there is an accumulation of magnetic field on the far surface (farside information and references). Candidates with a probability of 70% or higher are highlighted in red (more information).

Today's earth facing side of the sun is well peppered with small active regions, for the next 3 to 4 days the only region capable of earth directed flares/cme's is sunspot 1283 which has shown a marked increase in size over the last 48 hours, M class flare activity is possible if growth continues. Trailing right behind sunspot 1283 and currently emerging over the east limb is a rather large coronal hole, should it maintain it's size and structure during the next week or so it will hold potential for minor geomagnetic storming once it becomes earth facing. Behind that however is the interesting bit... What I think was old sunspot 1271 is showing major growth on the farside of the sun with high levels of magnetism, it could be the largest sunspot of this cycle so far when it appears over the eastern limb in around 7 to 8 days time. A lot can happen in that time though, both the sunspot structures and the coronal hole could decay but they could also continue to grow in size, we just need to wait and see what happens. Attached is a snapshot of Nasa's Stereo A and B images joined together and rolled out flat representing nearly 100% of the sun's surface, the right hand side (three squares deep) is the earth facing side and the left hand side (3 squares deep) is the farside of the sun.

Barium spreading by the government? Chemtrails? Elenin? I had to double check that i hadn't landed on one of those doom conspiracy forums!!! Complete and utter rubbish! I think this thread is open to a lot of speculative over-exaggeration and just completely inaccurate therory, everybody reading should bear this in mind.

Perhaps this graph may provide some clarity on the progress of 'sc24' (the current solar cycle) compared to the 3 previous solar cycles.... There is clearly a drop in activity between sc22/sc23 and again sc23/sc24. But just how much of a drop in activity is there exactly??? Well sc24 is showing characteristics that appear to be very similar to sc10 (the solar cycle between 1855 and 1867 ), sc12 (1878-1890) and sc14 (1902-1913). Whilst the mid to late 19th century solar cycles were rather quiet compared to modern cycles, they are very much 'middle of the field' between the maunder minimum period and the recent (last 60 years) modern maximum period. Based on the data it seems sc24 will be 70-80% more active than 'sc5' - the earliest dalton minimum cycle (1798-1811) and 20-25% more active than 'sc6' - the late dalton cycle (1811-1823) Just because the high level of solar activity that we have seen over the last half century appears to be tapering off, it doesn't automatically mean that the next maunder is impending. It's worth knowing that It was during the 'comparatively quiet' sc10 that the famous carrington super flare occured.

I got a snapshot of the magnetometer graph around 12 hours after last weekends kp8 geomagnetic storm, I'll post it up for future reference. There were aurora sightings as far south as Germany, Take a look on Spaceweather.coms picture gallery here Also this morning an X7 class flare and CME from sunspot 1263, Earth effects from this event should be minimal due to the direction of the CME. Worth noting, this flare takes top spot in the flare intensity charts for solar cycle 24 downgrading the X2 flare from February to second place.

I ended up travelling a bit further than anticipated to get a cloudless gap in the north view but soon after i arrived around 1130pm the view to the north erupted into colour, the timing couldn't be better. A bright green band rising around 30 degrees fading out to a very light pink/purple around 50 degrees, it was the brightest aurora i have seen in a long time. Light cloud cover soon attacked from the sw eventually blocking the view north just as the arc faded to quieter, greener hues. It was still lively as the cloud swallowed it up, there were visible auroral rays up to and maybe even above 50 degrees. Its nice to see the kp8 rating, as it's nearly 5 years since the last geomagnetic storm measuring kp8. Also nice to nail the storm severity beforehand, the big ones are the important ones.