AWD
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Posts posted by AWD
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Need the other two to come on board first before we can get excited with the prospect of Storms!!
Hopefully the 06z GFS will edge towards the ECM and bring Mondays trough through more slowly allowing fo a big bang!!
Outlook on all models is getting better by the day for heat lovers however!!
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Thankyou very much!
So simple really
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Met office seems to think the more heavy showers will be further east rather than the bristol area. Still havent managed to get a storm where I live in south gloucestershire
Hoping for tomorrow though, may have a chance?I don't think many of us have had a storm around our area! We've been in a black hole this year!
I agree about tomorrow, it looks like a few light showers in the morning before brightening up into a fine and predominelty dry afternoon! The showers developing further east along the trough thats bringing patchy rain to Western areas tonight and early tomorrow!
I'm keeping a close eye on Monday. With all the heat this weekend i hope we get a bang to go with it. But I fear the east is best positioned though! Interesting times nevertheless!
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Hey
How do I go about changing my username?
My current one is kinda cruddy thinking about it.
Cheers
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Estofex don't make much of it tomorrow at all!
:wallbash: Would love to be in Berlin though!!!!
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A few showers this morning in Exeter, but the best of the action to the east it seems.
I agree! It's all gone quiet in the West now! Not much building to my west either!
Hopefully the sun can get something pepping up later!
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That's a clean window for a First Great Western train! Lol!!
Already had a number of heavy, squally showers here! Nothing more than that yet though! Hopefully something might happen today!
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Has been raining heavily in Bristol for around the last 3 hours now!
I notice on the radar we have our own little rain system pivoting over us!
Biggest fall of rain I've seen for ages!
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Lovely here in Bristol today! Lots of warm pleasant sunshine, just a few bubbles of cloud around! Certainly nothing stormy or even showery occuring around here!
A very nice day indeed!
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Love the fact they exclude South West England in that forecast, but the rest of the country is included!
Oh well, it will be our day one day down here! Hopefully still get some heavy rain showers, some decent PPN is showing up out to the west, coming into the Bristol Channel!
Good luck all!
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Why is there so much talk of thunderstorms today/tonight. Ive 'will it thunder' a few places and all of them are saying 6-10% risk.. meh.
Proobably because it's the most action we've had in weeks!
Desperate times!!
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Had consistant moderate to heavy rain in Bristol for the last couple of hours now! But no thunder!
BBC weather just had a scattering of showers around, certainly no mention of persistent heavy rain! No mention of thunder either! Except for the south east later on today and tonight!
Looks like it's a case of anywhere on the south could get something but it's a guess exactly where! I'm hoping Bristol gets a rumble or two soon as everywhere around here has had something by the sound of it, and it's supposed to dry up here soon!
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Nothing in Bristol but steady moderate rain! Looks to ovecast here for any thunder!
So close but yet so far again!
Good luck to all south of me!
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Possibly something thundery popping up around the second week of June for the south but that's so far off that it's purely speculation and hope at the moment!
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but are we looking at showers now for the next few days rather than storms?
As the temps are a bit cool for storms!
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It looks like areas north and west of Brimingham will do best with potential thunder today!!
Areas south and east of the Midlands look drier and sunnier, inside an area from Norwich across to Birmingham down to Exeter eastwards/southwards, although a isolated shower or two will be around here!
North West England should see some big ones!!
Just my amatuer observations anyway!
Enjoy all!
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There is a met office weather watch out for 2 - 5cm of snow over higher ground ( above 200m ) in the far south west!! Maybe a surprise or two here!!
Models this evening have brought back hope again, admittedly for more northern areas of the country! However with massive short term changes like this, and a large amount of uncertainty still, perhaps there is a couple of straws left for us to clutch still!!
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All doom and gloom in the model thread again, can never get to excited so far out, more often than not it wont happen.
they seem to of perked up again in there!! A change to colder conditions is apparantely starting to be shown in FI now!! I ain't a model reader anyway so I'll just stick with Richard Angwin!!
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I've been thinking.
Roger and Blast's LRF mentioned a cold December, with a warmer spell in January, then getting cold in February and that cold continuing into March.
The MetO, I gather, secretly told the government (back in October) to expect, and be prepared for, a long, cold Winter, whilst advising the public (via a temperature map) that it would be a warm Winter. (
)If I had the energy, I would post links, but I haven't, so I won't!
Now, I have great faith in the methods which Roger and Blast use, and the MetO's forecast for the end January/beginning February is now showing a return to much colder weather.
I reckon it ain't all over, not by a long chalk. I also reckon that, come Spring, we'll look back and refer to the current mildish spell as a much needed bit of relief from an otherwise perishing and snowy Winter.
agree with you there!! I think there is something brewing for the end of the month and into Feb!! Of course, it's FI and I maybe completely wrong, but with models, the met office and senior members here going for a cold end to the month, you've got to be optimistic!!
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Really heavy rain in Bristol now! And strong gusts of wind!
I'm probably the only one, but I don't mind this at the moment, something different!
Still looking for the potential cold towards the end of the month! Something will come, but obviously it's to far to say what yet! Whether it comes next weekend or the last few days of January remains to be seen, as these things have a tendacy to stall at a particular timeframe for a while, thus getting delayed!
All interesting trying to forecast though!!
Met office 30 day forecast is interesting! By the end of the month and into feb, there going for colder across the country!
On iPhone, can't post link sorry!
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Worst possible weather in my book, cold rain.yuk!!! If it's going to rain then at least be very mild along with it!!
I see the next cold spell is still showing in the models to start around the 19/20th, I even see some comparisons to 1947 being made, we shall see
Some mild rainy weather next week for you! Lol!
Could see temps get into the mid teens next week in favoured places!
Only in this country can you experience -15c and +15c all in a 4 week timeframe! Lol!
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Heavy sleet this morning but just rain since around 8ish. Time for me to book holiday and pack netweather away for a couple of mild weeks,
yep, 10 - 14 day holiday from the cold weather now!! Time for a break, and relaxation! Lol!
I'll still be keeping an eye on some potential gales next week though, they could be interesting!
From next weekend onwards, that's when we should get back to model watching closely, as there could be a return to cold then, but we need to get through this week and get it into a reliable timeframe first! Very good trend from models for a cold end to January though, along with forecasting!!
Enjoy the break from the cold! It is just a break though, I don't think it's finished with us yet!!
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I agree with all of that, I think people start fretting that the first sign of anything mild is a return to the baron winters from pre 2009, not helped by "mildies" who love baiting in the model thread!
After a phenomenal run in 2010 winter months (Jan, Feb, Dec) we were due something less cold but seems way too soon to think winters over.
Totally agree!! There is still more winter suprises for us yet I feel!!
Anyway, GFS and ECM FI still keen on
bringing colder conditions back at the end of the month! Remember, the GFS was the first to see this milder spell back in FI, so maybe it's the first to be seeing a next cold spell!'
its been in several runs now so something to keep an eye on!!
This milder spell feels weird! We haven't had wind rain etc for so long now, it doesn't feel as depressing as what previous winters have!!
Someone very lucky might get snow tonight, maybe, just maybe!!!!
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I'd say people on here are being realistic, they know any snow that settles wont be around for long but who cares, personally I like seeing snow falling and couldn't really care less about whether I get any settling snow or not!
same here mate!! I know it is going to be very temporary, but still, the opportunity of seeing heavy snow falling for a short period of time is exciting!!
I also like strong winds ( not as much as heavy snow though, lol ), so I'm a little interested in the gales and possibly severe gales we could get during the Atlantic regime next week!!
A lot to look forward too in my opinion, something for everyone!!
Hoping for tomorrow though, may have a chance?
:wallbash: 
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Convective / Storm Chat And Discussion
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Currently a line of showers through Wiltshire, East Somerset and Dorset! As these carry on moving east they could intensify and maybe produce something! Other than that I can't see too much at the moment! Looks like it could brighten up in Wales and the West as I can't see any further showers coming in here now!