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As above, interesting thing about the 15z UKV is that it brings a spell of 60mph+ gusts of winds to pretty much everyone at some point Sunday night. Firstly Ireland, Wales & the SW; Then Wales, into the Midlands and Northern England; Then into Southern Scotland and Northern Ireland, along with the borders; That’s not to say others escape either, the SE and all of Eastern England will see damaging gusts based on this model too. One saving grace which will help mitigate impacts is that it’s happening overnight at least, when many of us are tucked up in our beds or binge watching Netflix with a box of Jaffa Cakes!
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Don’t worry if you hate the sun & calm weather, we all have a very disturbed afternoon & evening to look forward to late Sunday; Thats quite lengthy duration of 50mph+ gusts widely. No doubt certain areas prone to W/SW’rly winds will record higher too. Good luck on your commute to work Monday morning, particularly if that’s by rail or ferry!
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Latest UKV has wind gusts widely in excess of 50mph for the majority of the UK at some point Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, plenty of areas, inland included forecast 60mph+ gusts; Plenty strong enough to cause transport & structural damage in places. Focus of any notable rainfall is across the northern half of the country, with the south seeing less rainfall here thankfully (IMBY ). Mean winds always strongest through the Irish Sea into the Lancashire & Cumbrian coastline, as well as Dumfries. Isle of Man in a prime location; One positive is that the worst does appear to pass over pretty quickly. As another poster mentioned above, although nothing notable, it’s not exactly a calm start to the new working week either, with gusty winds continuing well into Monday for some; The GFS 12z does similar in continuing some noticeable wind gusts well into Monday across some parts of the UK; I won’t post every chart for every timeframe but the Arpege 12z run is essentially similar to the above. Mean wind speeds peaking at circa 30 - 40mph for many at some point; with gusts widely in excess of 50 - 60mph at some point for many;
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Ahh well, it looks like for those that want snow, you’ll have to join the mid Feb Scandi high chase that’s starting up in the MOD thread. Another cold couple of days coming up (probably the coldest of the week) before things turn milder and stormier for the weekend. The MetO have a very early wind advisory out for Sunday already; UK weather warnings - Met Office WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Back to normal service soon. Make the most of the next couple of days if you have outdoor envisions.
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I think either or both Wednesday night & Thursday night have the potential to record quite low minima locally at least. Tonight there is likely to be quite a bit of cloud around and the colder upper air has only just reached our region so probably just below freezing for many. Tomorrow night will be plagued with cloud cover for most of us as the well documented front traverses somewhere around/through the channel. Wednesday night & Thursday night have the potential to be much clearer and colder.
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Latest GFS 12z Det actually brings PPN quite modestly inland for parts of Devon & Dorset tomorrow night; Suspect it would be rain on the coasts and snow just a mile or two inland. Moors of Devon would do quite well here, @festivalking. However, it is isolated currently and an outside chance, but goes to show what a few miles difference can do even when it’s only a matter of hours away.
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Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
AWD replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
My mate just sent me this from Ballymena in Northern Ireland; At least somewhere is getting a decent covering! -
I said the same a while ago. Looking forward to doing morning dog walkies in the local woods in DRY, frosty and cold conditions. So much better than drizzle, wind & rain all the time.
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Updated map regarding midweek snow/sleet/rain; Northern extent shown. Red line - 45% chance Blue line - 35% chance Green line - 15% chance Any other scenario not shown, modelled or forecast is give a sub 5% chance. I always leave room for this as I don’t believe the weather is 100% foolproof and predictable. Anyway, brief today as off to work. Enjoy!
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Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
AWD replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion