AWD

It’s also worth noting that we don’t often follow LP systems or fronts so closely and delicately. If this was an everyday rain bearing system we wouldn’t care if it was shown 50 miles north or south on subsequent model output. How often have we gone outside for the day, expecting dry weather only to find it starts raining? How often then do folk come on here saying “it’s raining, I thought the forecast was for a dry day today”? Dont get me wrong, it’s extremely unlikely to make much roads inland now, midweek, modelling is in a rough agreement of a channel transition. However, for the likes of those in Wareham, Romsey, Gosport, Winchester, Eastleigh, Bournemouth to name but a few, it would only need a marginal and much more possible adjustment for them to see snowfall. Thankfully, my emotional connection with snow ended years ago when I found storms more interesting. Otherwise I’d be one of those nutters losing my hair in the MAD thread and throwing toys everywhere, blaming everyone etc. Oh , latest 15z UKV keeps with the theme (and for what it’s worth consistency) in keeping any PPN 5 miles south of Bournemouth pier!

Latest EC 12z Det does manage to give some light snow to extreme southern coastal areas, including the IOW. Just enough there tonight to keep one eye on the radar for members in these locations come midweek. For me personally, a rogue flurry managing to make it over the Welsh Hills on Thursday/Friday is the best I can hope for, with regards to snow, before normal service resumes next weekend. Not personally bothered though, looking forward to a week of dry, cold weather and much easier dog walks in the woods whilst Spring/Summer creep ever closer.

The only time it will be 100% dead in the water is when it’s actually happening & the radar says no! Probabilities currently favour a “over the water & Northern France” affair currently though.

Thankfully, I don’t believe long range forecasts, regardless of what said forecast entails!

Latest 12z modelling so far all indictive of any PPN midweek staying out in the channel (a la Red &/or Blue lines on my earlier map), so that scenario has certainly increased a bit in probability. A pair of Binoculars on the end of Bournemouth pier might just enable some visible snow grains though?

I would kinda hope Spring would be better (especially in the far SW) of temps into the low teens and frequent bouts of wind & excessive rainfall. If that is Spring on its way then no thanks, take me straight to summer with temps in the mid twenties and high CAPE values inducive of super cellular storms!

Alton Towers!!!!!

Scotland and up norf starts becoming colder on Sunday but we are way dooooown south and won’t really get colder (comparatively speaking) until Monday evening. I note you aren’t too far inland from the South Coast, so relatively sheltered from N/NNW winds. It maybe that temps for you only drop by a degree or two during the day for you anyway. Night minima’s (with the exception of Tuesday night) should be lower than what you’ve experienced over the past few nights though so you may get an elusive frost or two.

Was always suggested to be less cold this weekend. Was surprised at how cold yesterday was IMBY, as I thought it would be similar to how today has planned out.

Some modelling does, hence the Blue line & second favourite option. Enjoy a few frosts next week mate.

There’s no forecast or modelling that suggests such a scenario but as I’ve mentioned in my previous posts, unforecast events do occasionally happen. However, it’s a very very outside chance & I wouldn’t be staying up the night for such a hope…….. For our, more northern areas of the region, expect cold ish days, some sunshine & some cloud cover with more notable cold nights. I think that’s going to be the main talking point for us next week, overnight minima. Being a more sheltered region from N/NNW airflows, I’m not sure the daytime temperatures for many of us will be too much different to the week just gone.

The way I think it’ll play out midweek, when taking everything into a blend of a median, is something like the below; Each line being the northern extent of any PPN. Red line - 45% chance and currently the most favoured. Blue line - 25% chance Green line - 15% chance Yellow line - 10% chance 5% chance - The weather is never 100% guaranteed and sometimes does the unexpected, so I will always leave a 5% chance for it to do something totally unmodelled like blast up to Scotland etc. Never can we forecast the weather with 100% certainty. Also, small caveat is I’m not 100% convinced that any PPN that may reach southern coastal counties/IOW is certain to fall as snow and not rain. There’s more to forecasting snow than just the 850hpa temps and some modelling does play around with the idea of less cold sectors being mixed in with this LP, less favourable DP’s etc so definitely a lot to watch for, for those on the South Coast. Finally, our channel Island members in here MAY be our snowiest parts of the region next week. Not often we say that!!

That’s one specific GEFS Ensemble perturbation on a very low grid point chart unfortunately. In other words, that specific chart is about as reliable as a GWR train!

Hopefully the conditions for next week resemble something like the forecast right now IMBY; Would happily take the above over mild & wet. Some clear skies with low overnight minima too meaning some early morning dog walks through a frosty and icy woodland. Quite looking forward to it, even if I am alone in doing so.

Is that the elusive Dan Hutchings?

Assuming we stay cold until next weekend, as per latest forecasts, that would be 2 weeks (near enough) of below average temperatures of varying degrees, IMBY. Also 2 weeks of drier than average conditions (hence the outcry in the model thread). Suppose I better go and buy some de-icer in anticipation of frost watch next week.

I like cold & dry in winter. Lovely taking the dogs out for their early morning walk in crisp, frosty conditions and crisp, cold air. Whilst I appreciate it’s not particularly exciting for an enthusiasts point of view, it sure beats day after day of rain, wind and mild temperatures. Obviously I’m one of a very very few though, so perhaps I need my own thread where I can talk to myself about it.

When I look out the window and it’s actually happening.

Spot next weeks, midweek LP on the latest UKV; Hint -

Just seen a rare bit of useful information posted in the model thread. Latest from MetO regarding midweek snowfall, A lot can & will change still, it’s a good few days away still but always interesting to hear what the professionals think. Seems as though our region is still in with a chance of seeing some of the elusive white stuff, albeit that chance decreases the further north one is in the region.

That is cunningly very similar to the GFS 12z raw output.

If you ever want to talk through the very basics to get you started, I’d be happy to run through the basics with you (via PM obviously) whenever. I’m no expert or anything, but I can read a chart & understand the broad brush data modelling gives out. Alternatively there is the learning thread, where the likes of John Holmes, Knocker & a few others have produced some great learning points if you have some time and would like to delve deeper into the weather world. Don’t be scared to learn, there are plenty of more relaxed and mature places on this forum that would happily help, outside of the crazy antics of the model output thread.

Doesn’t feel like the days are getting longer when it’s constantly cloudy, dull & gloomy. I can count on one had the amount of sunny days or part days I’ve had IMBY. About another month or so before I personally start to notice the longer days, lighter evenings. It’s then when my mood lifts and I look forward to spring, summer and all the sunshine, warmth and hopefully convective/storm potential that brings.

Weather apps are generally computer generated and have no human input. Be cautious over any forecast from weather apps, regardless of whether it’s mild/cold/wet/dry. I always prefer the text forecasts from the Met Office for example.

UKV model now coming into range for the first half of next week. Shows a steady flow of snow showers over much of Scotland & Northern Ireland throughout Monday & Tuesday, with these also starting to infiltrate NW England, North Wales and even into the Midlands by late Tuesday; Just another option to consider for those in the aforementioned, affected areas.