AWD

First signs of the upcoming weekends instability creeping into the radar now, Won’t play a part today for the majority, but something for storm enthusiasts to prepare for over the weekend.

Exactly why I always wear flip flops or the like when going in the sea. Not just for reasons you mention, but I hate stepping on crabs and other sharp rocks etc. Many UK beaches, sea lines aren’t all sand.

Not for me and my area. You only have to see posts in the SW thread over the weekend gone to see I’m not the only one who’s noticed what I posted. Not saying the other models were any better, for example I don’t even look at the GFS PPN charts as they’re useless, just that the UKV didn’t do well for my area locally, particularly on Saturday where around lunchtime I had 3 hours or so of intermittent, moderate rain with a UKV forecast of dry with the odd scattered shower. I’m posting about PPN, not temps by the way. The temps have been nearer the mark.

The UKV was appalling over the weekend gone, which forecast no rainfall for me Saturday yet I received a good few hours of moderate rain and forecast little in the way of storm activity yet as we know, a large amount of storms swept across many parts of central England on Sunday! Not a model I personally have much trust in currently.

The UKV (well, a run I saw last night) also showed nothing but the odd, isolated shower throughout the day today for the West Country, yet locally it’s been overcast all day with intermittent, moderate rainfall around lunchtime. Not the best 24 hours for the UKV and Met Office warnings! Possibility of some showers/storms scattered about tomorrow but otherwise yes, another warm and increasingly sunny week ahead.

Looks like main, southern core of it all is heading slowly NW, towards Swindon and potentially Gloucester. Can’t see much, if anything, happening south of the M4 once it reaches the West Country, as things stand.

I see the Bristol storm shield is well & truly working this weekend! It’s been cloudy, relatively fresh with intermittent drizzle here for much of the day. If I wasn’t on “kid duty” today, I’d be heading east along the M4. Typically, tomorrow work takes me to Theale, so hoping for some fun then maybe. I can see areas further east than many of the mornings forecasts now getting some action. Thing’s definitely kicking of around south and west London now.

Cloudy with intermittent, moderate rain here. Not particularly cool but not overly warm either.

Complete cloud cover here now. Still warm & humid, although with a slight breeze and cloud cover, it feels less so.

Hazy sunshine here although the cloud is definitely increasing over time. A band of light PPN is slow coming up the M5 so I may see some of the wet stuff fall from the sky for the first time in over a month later today. Nothing thundery on the horizon though.

MetO have just issued a yellow warning for Thunderstorms on Saturday for much of NW England, the Midlands, London, and areas around the M4 corridor, and all of Wales.

Yep. GFS 12z quite strong on convective activity being quite widespread over the weekend and into next week. Warm, humid and thundery sums it up. Even beyond that, whilst the convective element dilutes a little, there remains a degree of instability across much of the south, the west and Ireland. Can see where folk are getting the rinse and repeat warm, thundery pattern relaxed with a few drier days inbetween from. Interesting times for convective fans, and indeed heat fans alike. Something for many, unless you like it cool.

Definitely growing signal for some increasingly unstable skies as we go into the weekend and more particularly week 2. Getting warmer but also getting potentially stormier. An increasingly unstable EC 0z run there.

Looks like a very “convective potential” chart for Ireland, Wales & Southern England. All 3 main models keep the warmth, or indeed have it getting warmer for some. Disagreement is more with how the low in/around Biscay affects the UK. Potential for the Convective weather thread to start seeing signs of life over the coming days though.

Frontal rain, nah, that can sure stay away but I wouldn’t say no rain at all during summer. Plenty of folk enjoy convective weather, storms etc and as a heat/storm fan myself, I’ll sure be hoping for a few “humdingers” between the sunny days every now and again.

You must have been hibernating then!

Folk have been saying that for over a week now. I’ll believe it when I see it!

Right, that’s it! I’m off outta here!

Big shopping mall on the northern outskirts of Bristol.

Disappointingly cloudy and cool at Cribbs Causeway so far today, although the sun is just starting to make an appearance now. Bit of a breeze still though. On a side note, any West Country folk intending to go to Cribbs this week, they’re digging up every damn road around the area so it’s mayhem currently. Avoid!

Keep it simple and sweet. Essentially the next 10 - 12 days are a continuation of what we currently have. Plentiful sunshine, some cloudier periods, east coast prone to a breeze and fresher conditions, warm and pleasant in the west. Never that hot but warm and pleasant enough for now. Beyond that, it’s massive uncertainty as you would expect at such a range. Possibly becoming less settled but too far out for anything other than educated guesses. Just enjoy the early summer weather over the next week or two and worry about mid June from next weekend onwards. Unfortunately from a personal perspective, little if anything in the way of heat and storms so far.

Brizzle’s back garden is normally the warmest part of Bristol. Bristol Airport is elevated. Bristol City is normally a couple of degrees warmer than the airports recorded temperature. That being said though, away from @Bristle Si back garden, there is a notable breeze today compared to the last few days taking the edge of the warmth somewhat. Not much cloud though. As nice as this settled spell is, I’m personally still looking for that plume type scenario where we get proper warmth/heat alongside a storm or two to mix things up a bit. Circa 21c is a nice appetiser but getting a bit meh now. Where’s my 25c+.

Possibly, although as ever with our weather, many other factors also come into play. Off to Tenerife in a few weeks anyway, so will be getting my sun fix whatever the UK weather does. June looks to be very up in the air as things stand, going by the reliable folk in the model thread.

That’s the only slightly disappointing thing about this current settled spell. Getting temps higher than the very low twenties seems a right old struggle and looks like continuing for the foreseeable. Picky, I know, but I do find temps of circa 25c as my ideal temp, especially in evenings where the sun disappears from my garden at around 6pm this time of year due to positioning. Oh, and the lack of thunderstorms. We need a plume.

You might be lucky and have a “sun trap” back garden. It’s nice, it’s warm and sunny but the breeze makes it more than comfortable to enjoy without heading for shade. Maxing out in the low twenties is lovely, but not what I would class as very warm. That would involve mid to high twenties personally. Not complaining though. Like you say, west/south west is best and we have more to look forward to judging by the forecast. Lovely summer weather, just a few degrees warmer for perfection.