AWD

Cell has developed directly overhead of me, to the east/south east of Bristol. Not much electrical activity in the cells developing so far today, far less than what I was hoping for. Though, with the way this season has been going, I'll just settle for a bit of heavy rain (red radar return) stuff.

I've literally just had this develop directly overhead in the last 10 minutes; Now producing large raindrops. What's the bet as it moves of North it turns into a biblical storm?!

Tentative signs of a convergence line starting to develop, which might provide some interest to those in the Mendips, Wiltshire and possibly Bristol/Glos areas later in the afternoon; Something to watch anyway, very unpredictable condition out there currently.

A bit late in the day, but we have signs of a convergence line developing, heading towards parts of the West Country and South West Midlands;

Been cloudy with on/off light rainfall for most of the day here, not what I was personally expecting. The garden appreciated it though, even if amounts were negligible. Just started brightening up now with pockets of sun appearing. Hoping it's not too late in the day for a bit of surface heating and rapid cell development. Speaking of rapid cell development, a decent cell has quickly developed over Bridport with sferics. It's clear that behind this cloudy crud, there is decent instability, it's just a case of a race against time. I'll give it a few more hours before sulking yet, but I do feel a sulk coming on.

A quick look at what may come next after the showery/stormy few days ahead. First of all, a look at the current radar; shows quite a mess of varying levels of PPN. A big storm currently over Brighton and surrounding areas, further cells encroaching into the Jurassic coast and a mass of light, drizzly PPN stretching from Cornwall into the Midlands. This goes to show that PPN over the UK is notoriously difficult to forecast, especially that of a convective nature, hence why I pay little attention to PPN accumulation charts and the like. I won't post the UKV charts for the next few days as I feel radar watching will be the way to go. Hopefully us storm fans will get to see some humdingers over the next day or so, even if we have to chase a bit. A look at the overnight Mogreps suite then for any longer range signals. Again, I will include both London and Glasgow, to represent differing parts of the country. Rainfall for both areas looks low. Nothing to suggest an easing of the drought conditions in the SE and nothing to suggest floods in the north. For balance though, both sets show the possibilities for showery conditions at any given time over the next week or so, so this could suggest MLSP isn't going to be significantly high? Let's look; Yes! The Mogreps suite suggests MSLP averaging around 1020hp in the south and 1015hp in the north, which would, at times, allow for showers to form and pass through any one given location at any one time. Now 850hpa temperatures; Signs of warmth continuing in the south, although nothing as extreme as what a couple of GFS operationals and GEFS members have been showing of late. The north seeing upper air temps more around average. What's that translate to at the surface; Temperatures here are shown to max out in the high 20's across the south and east, perhaps hitting 20c in parts of the north. Obviously local topography will effect local temperatures, so don't take this too literally, just as a broad brush example of what to expect over the next week or so. So, medium range modelling, to me, suggests a lot of dry and warm weather to come for the south and east and plenty of dry weather for the north too, but perhaps a little fresher here with temperatures more around average. This doesn't exclude showers or the odd band of PPN at times, the ensembles don't paint a solid, dry picture. It's just it will be dry much more than it will be wet. Compared to what we've experienced over the last month or so, it's definitely more "UK typical" as things stand. On a quick note when I looked through the UKV this morning, I did notice this at the very end of the run; Unfortunately, this is as far as this model goes, or at least as far as I'm aware it goes, but it does hint at a band of modestly heavy frontal rainfall hitting England and Wales later in the weekend. How it would evolve from here on I don't know, but something to watch for the rain bearers over the coming days.

There's thunder approx 90 miles to your west? EDIT - There are some cells that have developed rather rapidly to your west, in the Salisbury direction.

I notice that the large thunderstorm over Devon currently is slowly moving E/NE up the M5, albeit weakening. I'm under no illusions that once it reaches Weston Super Mud, the electrical element of it will dissipate and I will receive the dregs!

A quick run down from me before I head to the beach for the day, as there is a bit of regional bias and misconception creeping in this morning. Firstly, next week's convective activity. Overnight UKV run maintains a theme of a convective beginning to the new working week, as it has done for a few days now. Detail has chopped and changed, as you would expect, but the broad theme remains. Isolated showers/storms breaking out across Wales as early as Sunday; Interestingly, on Monday where the Metro have a yellow advisory out for thunderstorms across the western side of the UK, the UKV shows storm activity quit widely across the SE quarter. Worth noting some more persistent rainfall forecast for northern Scotland; Tuesday still looks like a humdinger of a day for many in the Midland and the south; and even Wednesday has some convective activity continuing across the SE; So convective fans certainly have some interest for the first half of next week. Temperature wise, remaining warm across England, fresher across Scotland and average in Wales; Looking further ahead and I always prefer using ensemble products rather than the ever swinging operational output personally. So firstly, the Mogreps suite. Becoming less hot/warm into next week, as expected, signs of something much fresher for our Scottish friends. There seems to be a tendancy to focus on London or SE ensembles only, so for balance I will include both the London set and Glasgow set to show the differences between north and south next week, as we are all from different places around the UK. Clearly a more notable cool down for our Scottish friends; Rainfall wise, the Mogreps doesn't have much for anywhere. Convective rainfall for London for a while, more lighter stuff further north possibly; Definitely a sign for something for the SE there, but not much. The GEFS and EC ensembles are similar, perhaps slightly wetter on the GEFS; With the GEFS forecasting the Icelandic low to be closer to Scotland, they do produce quite a bit more rainfall compared to the Mogreps there. All in all, a more typical north/south split likely through next week.

A quick glance at this morning's UKV run from me, before I take the kids on a weekend break down to Bognor Regis to enjoy the last few days of this hot, settled spell. Isolated showers breaking out on Sunday afternoon over parts of England. Some heavier rainfall forecast for highland Scotland; This convective activity then increases as we head into the new working week, with storms/showers breaking out more widely over Wales and western England on Monday as well as parts of Scotland, although less intense here; Then overnight Monday and into Tuesday things ramp up, convective wise again, for much more of the UK, with heavy downpours possible pretty much anywhere; Tuesday continues to look awesome on this model, with perhaps the hint of storms clustering together to form a more organised band of thundery rain or even a homegrown MCS; All very uncertain with detail, as you would expect, chopping and changing between each model run, but the theme of instability remains. As ever with convective weather, it's hit and miss, so I'm not promising storms for everyone, some folk will no doubt stay dry and sunny, if not quite as hot as currently. Monday is shown to be warm widely across England still; Tuesday sees the warmth restricted more towards the SE corner, with more typical temperatures elsewhere and as shown above, some rain; Scotland maintains the theme of some rather chilly nights starting to appear. Anyway, enjoy your weekend folks. I'll probably be skirting of towards the convective thread more now, leaving you all to search for what comes next after the upcoming changeable period. Mixed signals currently but long range forecasting isn't my speciality.

One of the models I'm following for next week more closely than others now is the high res UKV model, as this is normally one of the better models when trying to decipher any convective weather potential, for which seems to be the main weather for both Monday and Tuesday. The latest 15z UKV model continues to evolve into what can only be described as a convective weather enthusiasts orgasm. Both Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon are shown to have a fairly widespread potential for showers and/or storms, some very notable; Obviously, as ever with convective weather it's hit and miss. Some places will get nothing and others could get frequent storms. What the above does demonstrate is a high level of instability in the upper levels, producing a wide amount of storm activity over the country, most notably the Midlands and South. Tuesday looks pure class, although obviously at this range, detail is irrelevant. It's also worth noting that this sort of rainfall won't show up well (if at all) on PPN accumulation charts due to the nature of the beast. You cannot, at this range forecast where storms will happen and to what severity, hence models cannot forecast accumulated PPN from convective activity, which is why I'm personally not looking at these charts. I do agree that frontal rainfall looks minimilistic for large parts of the south and east though, but that's generally always been the case. For those who like their temperatures, the 15z UKV run keeps things warm for large parts of England and Wales well into next week. Obviously not as hot as currently, but warm still nevertheless; Still very respectable. So, for England and Wales next week things look like turning more changeable and unstable. Not full on unsettled, no, that was never really on the agenda, but equally not the solely current settled conditions we have either. Some interest for convective weather fans, which has been lacking this summer, is there which is something I'm looking forward too. It is worth a shout out for Scotland too. This is the model thread for the country, not just south east UK. For our Scottish friends, who haven't enjoyed as hot or as settled conditions that us English/Welsh folk have, things don't look too bad into next week. Not much in the way of convective activity, not much in the way of heavy rain either. Worth noting for you people is the prospect of some chilly night and chilly mornings starting to emerge; Temperatures probably lower than what's shown in the glens. First signs of some Autumn nights showing their hand here? Remember folks, no need to get worked up, the weather will do what the weather wants to do at the end of the day, regardless of what any one person wants or thinks it will do.

More so for convective weather geeks, but another model, the high res UKV, is starting to come into range for next week now, namely Monday and continues the theme of scattered showers/storms breaking out pretty much anywhere through Monday afternoon, as shown below by the 03z run; Max temperatures for Monday shown to be considerably lower compared to the weekend too; I do think that could end up being overly pessimistic, especially when taking into account other modelling for the same day, but nevertheless a change to something less warm and more changeable next week continues to gather pace, I do expect the convective weather thread to see an uptick in activity next week as storm chasing recommences after a long hiatus.

Now I do like the look at that UKV PPN chart. Obviously not to be taken literally, as with any PPN forecast chart, but it does show well how I feel next week will play out. Remaining warm still but with more in the way of scattered convective potential, which for a convective weather fan like myself, is something this summer has been lacking so far and I would very much welcome. Not the rain parts of the south and east really need, but beggars can't be choosers and something is better than nothing. A lot of sun and clear blue skies to go under the bridge first though, over the coming days. A difference in the weather looking more likely next week, if not so much in temperature but more in cloudscapes & skylines.

Trouble is with not paying your energy bill is your spiting yourself by damaging your credit portfolio. I'm looking to get a mortgage and a first buy in the next couple of years, so damaging my credit portfolio isn't really an option for me.

I don't normally post in here as it can be a very "argumentive" place at times, but it's usually better in summer than in winter. I've watched the last couple of days output and there is definitely a signal for some sort of convective potential around the end of the weekend into next week. Obviously looking at detail etc is pointless at this range (PPN charts etc at this range aren't worth the time of day), as we all know convective weather is difficult enough to forecast at 24 hours out, let alone a week+ out. Clearly this week is going to become increasingly hot for England and Wales as it progresses, with near enough clear skies and warm nights. I'll be venturing down to Bognor Regis with the kids later in the week to enjoy the summer weather myself. Naturally, aside from temperature maxes, with this week's weather all but certain, a lot of discussion is going to take place around the end of the weekend and into next week where things become much more uncertain. Both the GFS and UKMO 12z runs lower heights enough to bring instability across the country; Little in the way of frontal rainfall still, away from Scotland and NI, but nevertheless a change to this week's fully settled conditions. I won't mention the "breakdown" word as that seems to rile some folk up for some reason, so I'll just call it a change. As a convective weather fan, early indications of conditions into next week look interesting. Remaining warm still, (although not quite as hot as this week), but with scope for some interesting cloudscapes and storms. How long it will last for? Who knows, I don't. Wayyyyy in FI then. Worth a shout out for our Scottish members, as it's only fair they're not forgotten about this week. The GFS 12z, for the peak of the heat next weekend, does suggest some quite sharp temperature variations across the country. The south could get well into the mid thirties whilst parts of Scotland could struggle to get into the mid teens; Enjoy this week if your fortunate to have time off work, and if your a convective weather fan or just want some rainfall in the SE, then there is a twinkle at the end of the tunnel appearing. Keep watching over the next few days. I'll now scurry away back to my hole before I get rounded upon!

Considering the likelihood of a proper cold winter (especially in my locale) is something like 100/1 nowadays, then no, not really.

After 38-40c in July, 30-32c (my locale) will be decidedly "cool"!

Early in the day but there are signs on the radar that convective activity is again breaking out over SW England.

15z UKV not showing much of note regarding any convective activity on Tuesday or Wednesday. Tuesday sees some instability and activity over the far SW in the morning; Then further instability brings some isolated showers/storms over Northern England later on Tuesday, perhaps filtering down into parts of Wales and the West Country too; Then on into the evening, we get some signs of something over the south and east; Doesn't appear to translate into anything of note though. Wednesday shows a bit more interest, but that's a good few days off yet so not worth much evaluation at this stage;

Latest, 15z UKV has some isolated convective activity throughout Tuesday, firstly in the far SW then a bit in Northern England down into parts of Wales and the West Country onTuesday afternoon; 40c and a shower in the NE on Tuesday?

Nothing substantial showing up in any ensemble product really. Mogreps below typical of any forecast expectations;

Something to worth bearing in mind, here is the 03z UKV forecast for around now; Verses the actual current radar; There seems to be somewhat more instability over parts of the country than what this particular model suggests. Moderate rainfall over North Yorkshire, a few showers down into the East Midlands and also just off the Jurassic Coastline. As for Scotland, that currently looks like an unpleasant mess!

A somewhat more interesting, convective forecast for Wednesday from the 03z UKV model this morning. Storms breaking out over SW England and the far west of Wales early hours Wednesday morning, spreading east through Wednesday afternoon to many places;

If you're in east/south east England and looking for rain, one Mogreps member brings in some sort of monsoon to the capital in just over a week's time; In all seriousness though, not much appreciable rainfall is forecast for the places that need it, for the foreseeable future. Bits and pieces, most likely of a convective nature, but that's about it.

Latest, 15z UKV, shows a distinct lack of anything notable, convective wise through Tuesday night and Wednesday. Isolated storms in SW England Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, becoming a bit more scattered on Wednesday over Southern England and the Midlands. Very hit and miss though. I won't post the charts because there really isn't a great deal to see.