AWD

And the SW escapes the extreme temperatures on Tuesday too (which, fortunately for me, is where I'll be). GFS 12z keeps any convective potential limited to the SW on Tues/Weds too;

03z UKV, as a broad brush view at this point, shows the potential for quite a widespread attribution of storm activity Tuesday night into Wednesday morning;

Massive contrast from Lincolnshire to Devon. If you don't like the heat, head to the SW. Only Monday appears to be anything exceptional down these here parts. (Although hot on Sunday too, just not exceptional).

15z UKV 2m maxes for Monday afternoon; Hot, with hotter to come on Tuesday if it's sister model, the UKMO, is anything to go by. Every chance records could go on Monday, and again on Tuesday. Oddly, the hottest place modelled there is...... Chester!

Cornwall is surrounded by the sea. Never more than a few miles from the coast so you'll never be similar to London and surrounding areas for example.

40.4c Monday 18th July at West Ruislip.

It feels like Bristol has been one of the unluckiest and wettest places in the UK today, stuck under a constant stream of heavy showers. Since about 2pm, it's been wet more than dry, with frequent bursts of heavy rain temporarily turning roads to rivers.

The day has been cloudy for all of it, but it didn't start raining until approx 5pm here. However, it's been relentless since and doesn't show signs of moving away anytime soon. The band just seems to be pivoting over the West Country. If only it were winter..........

Tentative signs of a convergence line starting to form at the rear of the cloud base over much of England and Wales currently;

I'm bang in the middle of one of the yellow weather advisories issued by the Metro today. So far, there has been a relentless, thick blanket of cloud persisting, preventing any surface heating occuring. It feels on the cool side out too. For my location, I do feel this cloud cover needs to disperse rather imminently if I'm to see any convective activity this afternoon/evening.

Frequent bursts of very heavy rain here for the past hour or so. I'm directly on a narrow line of heavier PPN running from Newport to Bristol.

Surprise rumble to my north. Just started to rain, big heavy drops too.

Lights are flickering away here now. I wouldn't be surprised to have an imminent power cut. Really are some wild gusts funnelling along my street.

Indeed. I know it's not the same everywhere, but for our local area, today is definitely stormier than Friday. Not just the winds, but the frequent bursts of horizontal, heavy rain, dark cloud formations and a little hail have made it feel a stormier day overall. The loudness of the gusts are most noticeable though.

Gusts have really picked up here now. I would hazard a guess and say they are matching those seen from Eunice around these parts, certainly louder!

I wouldn't say it's a write off for our region? Windy yes, but predominantly dry too, maybe even sunny later in the day. Whilst windy, it's not going to be that bad that folk can't go out and about in it.

Still had to go to work today, trains still running across Southern England, albeit at a reduced speed. Across the border in Wales and they've all been stopped for much of the day. Not sure why the difference between the two areas. Ah well, time to play the old game of avoid the trees on the track!

Looks quite pleasent out surprisingly. Blue skies, sunshine and a moderate breeze. Either East Bristol is very sheltered or worse is to come.

Latest UKV maintains the theme of gusts widely in excess of 70mph+ over vast swathes of Southern England and South Wales. Gusts in excess of 80mph around exposed coastlines;

Yes, same measures stated in the tweet also apply to North Somerset and South Glos too.

Bristol is a relatively sheltered city, away from the Avonmouth area. They have definitely taken a more cautious approach here!!

Just had email from sons secondary school saying they are closing tomorrow due to the expected severe weather, South Glos.

A quick example of what circa 70mph gusts of wind can do, the lesser value expected nationwide come Friday;

It's very hard to envisage the word "downgrade" properly when the SW is still forecast to experience highly severe wind gusts, widely in excess of 70mph+ easily; Whilst specific detail might show a general, very slight wane of wind gusts compared to some previous model output, it's all very negligible really and will show little difference on the ground. 70mph+ inland wind gusts (80mph+ coastal) still have a lot of the same potential in terms of disruption etc. For many, regardless of what degree of severity you wish for, "downgrade" probably isn't a true reflection of what is meant really.