AWD

Unexpected covering of snow here this morning. A couple of cm's. Always nice to wake up to and take the dog for a Sunday morning walk in.

Driving back from work, over the Mendips, there was sporadic inter-cloud lightning. Rather bright flashes that lit up the sky. At first I thought I got hit by a speed camera, but twas definitely lightning. No rain, no thunder, eerely quiet within the lightning. A rather pleasent surprise.

Forget north of the M4, we finally have a "south of the M4" event!

Thunder rolling to my east. Radar absolutely awash with cells today.

Thunder to my east. Some short, sharp showers passing through.

A little look at the days and week ahead weather wise then, using the latest ensemble guidance and UKV output. Signs of some late summer warmth gathering pace in the models now. Firstly, it looks like things are slowly starting to settle down as we enter the weekend, after what's been a very active week, convective weather wise, for many. Some places have seen a lot of rainfall from frequent storms Whilst others have missed the worst, all very typical of a convective set up. Whilst we still do have some shower activity possible through the weekend, they are a lot more sparse and isolated compared to recent days; Many places missing them and staying dry. The exception to this appears to be later in the weekend for NI, Scotland and the far north of England where an Atlantic front will make inroads, giving a wet finish to the weekend here before the front fragments rapidly as it tries to push further south and east, leaving a lot of cloud behind; Temperature wise, very respectable for the time of year, many places in England and Wales getting into the low twenties, perhaps locally the mid twenties in the SE. Should be said that Scotland and NI do remain fresher, with mid - high teens maxes here; one other note for the weekend, before we move into next week, is the prospect of a chilly night or two for many away from the South; So, settling down somewhat, becoming somewhat drier for many in England and Wales with just isolated showers, more persistent rain for NI and Scotland to finish the weekend. Next week then, and there are distinct signals for something quite warm for the time of year developing, with a pattern typical of what the EC 0z Operational shows, with LP towards our SW driving up warmer, continental air; The signal for this exist very noticeably in all ensemble products to varying degrees. The EC Operational perhaps rather optimistic, but nevertheless turning warmer next week is a strong theme; Obviously it's most notable towards the South and East, least notable towards the North and West. GEFS showing similar; Ignoring that PPN spike from the operational run which appears to be somewhat of an outlier, you can see the diminishing rainfall spikes for the SE there, portraying a much drier theme next week. Not as dry further north and west, where An Atlantic influence will continue to intrude at times, but equally not overly wet either here. The overnight Mogreps suite also showing the distinct warm up next week, both at 850hpa level; and at surface level; Using this suite, you would expect temperatures mid next week to peak in the mid - locally high twenties down south and low - locally mid twenties for the North of England and Wales. Low twenties for Scotland. That's broad brush for now, we will get a better idea nearer the time, using high Res modelling. The Mogreps always agrees with the increasingly dry picture through next week; Like I said, not exclusively dry, a few isolated showers or weak bands of PPN are still possible at any one given time, at any one given location. Just much drier than this week. This corresponds with an increase in MSLP as we progress through next week; Again, most notable down south but still applicable further north, just less so. So to summarise how I see both the weekends weather and weather through next week materialising. I see things slowly turning drier for many from this point onwards. Whilst scattered showers are still possible pretty much anywhere, they will be much more scattered, much less intense than recent times and many will avoid them and stay dry. The exception being that weather front that looks to affect Scotland, NI and Northern England late in the weekend. Temperatures remaining very respectable for the time of year, into the twenties down south, high teens up north essentially. Local variations aside. Through next week we look to import an increasingly warmer upper level airmass, which will increase 2m temperatures further for many. To give a broad brush evaluation, we could be seeing temperatures into the mid twenties down south, low twenties further north. More detail in this nearer the time. Dry or rather dry next week, with just an isolated showers or two annoying some from time to time. Temperatures perhaps falling back down by a couple of degrees by next weekend as the warm, continental airmass gets pushed east. So all in all, aside from some night time minima over the weekend, we continue with the above average temperatures, perhaps becoming briefly well above average for some mid next week. PPN looks like subsiding for the foreseeable for many now. Beyond the warm up mid next week I can see things settling into a very typical, recent September pattern of very mundane but useable weather. Certainly no need for any heating to go in yet.

Correction - Heavy rain now and thunder. Not noticing an abundance of lightning though.

Massive thunderbolt over Shepton Mallet now. Infeuqent lightning, rain not too heavy yet!

Massive thunderbolt over Shepton Mallet now. Infeuqent lightning, rain not too heavy yet!

Currently at work down at Merehead quarry with one eye to my west/south west. Not sure how far east it's going to get, could skirt up the M5 towards the Bristol area and my house, which would be typical.

A quick run through of the latest ensemble modelling for the medium range outlook then, and it is a quick run through as it is all looking distinctly average for the foreseeable, when taking the country as a whole. A bit above at times in the SE, a bit below at times in the NW. Before we get to that, a quick view of the overnight UKV run gives some rainfall over the SW and Central Southern England, into the East Midlands along with a separate front over Scotland, over he next 48 hours; Some quite heavy bursts modelled there, will be interesting watching the radar evolve over the next day or two, and mirroring it against the above forecast to see how accurate it is. I wouldn't rule out some thundery activity within the above either. Speaking of convective, thundery weather, the overnight UKV then shows some great interest for convective weather fans through the midweek period next week, with numerous days of widespread showers and storms being forecast; Obviously, as always with convective forecasts, don't take the distribution too literally, only the radar at the time can give guidance on that, I'm just posting them to illustrate the risk of showers/storms breaking out pretty much anywhere at any given time next week. As ever, some will miss them and stay dry and some will get one after the other after the other. It's for this very reason that I won't be taking much stick of cumulative PPN charts, as next week's predicted convective weather pattern isn't something that can be reliably forecast on a micro scale. At least the convective weather thread will see a new leash of life in the days ahead anyway, I look forward to reading the forecasts of those more knowledgeable in there. Temperature wise for the next few days shows a distinct west/east split. Fresher air in the west, humid, warm air sticking around in the east; although by the end of the week, the UKV does show fresher air making inroads into much more of the UK; nevertheless, away from possibly the far north at times, there is nothing showing any distinctly cool weather. Average at worse for many of us, with above average temps for a while longer yet in the east of the country. All very respectable for the time of year. Longer term and into mid September then. Again, not much changes. I see nothing to suggest a return of hot summer weather and I see nothing to suggest a slide into distinctly Autumnal weather. All very average to slightly above, depending on where you are in the country. The overnight Mogreps suite highlights the temperature situation for the foreseeable future well. The south and east continue to see temperatures peaking in the mid twenties, possibly the low twenties by the end of next week and into next weekend; The north and west a bit lower, with temperatures peaking in the low twenties, possibly high teens into next weekend; All very respectable, if not extreme in one way or the other. PPN wise, and it's a similar story of a bit around here and there, but certainly no sign of a monsoon. Most of what is modelled appears to be convective in nature, so I would take the below with a pinch of salt, but they do show the risk of something falling from the sky on any given day at any given location; Like we saw couple of weeks ago, when parts of the SE saw significant, heavy rainfall and other parts saw essentially nothing, it all depends on where the convective weather sets up shop so to speak. Carry a brolly with you, to may need it, but there's a chance you won't need it. I do think the arguements over PPN will continue in here, simply because there will be large, regional variations over the week ahead. Remember, what's happening in your back yard isn't necessarily what's happening in someone else's back yard. One thing that caught a little glimmer in my eye is the Mogreps 850hpa chart for the SE shows a possible uptick in 850hpa temps mid month, at the end of the suite; Hints of a depression stalling to the west/south west of the UK drawing up some warmer air for the South and East quadrant? Something to keep watch on going forward anyway. Much less pronounced for the north; With the Atlantic becoming home to numerous tropical storms through the week ahead, it's definitely a distinct possibility but word of caution, these tropical storms or ex hurricanes just increase model uncertainty, so try not to get to hung up on medium range forecasts for now. Operational output will be even worse. The GEFS are not so keen on the above possibility; with a continuation of the rather average and mundane conditions showing for the foreseeable there. Some rain/showers, some drier weather, temperatures very average across the board. Nothing much else to say. A look at the GEFS MSLP plots show much the same, very average, mixed conditions; No point posting anything else as it's all pointing towards the same outlook, average, mixed conditions. So to summarise on how I see things going forward into mid month. I see a rather average, mixed spell of weather ahead. No extremities in either camp. Warmer temperatures always towards the east/south east, fresher temperatures towards the north/north west. Temperatures (aside from the next few days in the east where they will remain rather warm) always fluctuating around average. PPN seems to be more convective in nature for many of us. Weakening frontal rainfall for the north, west and far south west at times, giving some more prolonged rainfall at times here, but as these fronts continue their journey eastwards (or NE'wards), these fronts will lack umph and essentially die a death leaving behind a lot of cloud, clag and drizzly conditions. For the South, Midlands and East the best chance of rainfall will come from showers/storms with midweek next week looking the most liveliest days on this respect. There is the possibility of showers before this period, just that midweek next week looks to be very active as things stand, convective wise. One to watch going foward. Beyond that and into next weekend and possibly week 2, I don't see much change. Again, always drier towards the SE with the NW always closer to Atlantic frontal systems. Showers continuing always interspersed by sun. Temperatures around average. That's pretty much it. It's just a case of ironing out who gets the showers/storms and who stays dry now. No doubt that'll cause a lot of debate, for me it's an excuse to head over to the convective thread and take insight into forecasts from some very knowledgeable members there.

As Meteorological Summer ends and Autumn begins, what will the weather do, will there be a change coming? Well yes, a change is afoot to something a little more unsettled, widely, most notable in the South though. Firstly this week and into the weekend. A scour through the overnight UKV run shows the upcoming change in conditions well. For the next few days we have somewhat of an west/east split with fresher air over Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and extreme western part of England. Temperatures here over the next few days look like peaking in the high teens/low twenties. Further east, we hold on to some rather warm temperatures still, peaking here in the mid twenties which is very respectable for the time of year; by the weekend, much of the country is in fresher air, with temperatures back down towards the seasonal average for many (give or take in any one particular location); We also have some fresher nights in the days ahead, which should make sleeping much more comfortable compared to conditions earlier this month. A snapshot of typical overnight mins below; So that's temperatures, what about rainfall? Well, that starts to arrive for some over the weekend. For the remainder of the working week, it's dry for much of the UK still, with cloud cover and sunshine battling for supremacy. Once we hit Saturday, things start the turn into the unsettled category, with a day of sunshine and showers ahead of a band of fragmented PPN encroaching from the W/SW; Now obviously don't take location or timing to little with the following, but the below is being posted purley for illustrative purposes to highlight the increasing risk of PPN pretty much anywhere, throughout the weekend. I maintain that PPN charts are useful for broad brush, macro trends and not for fine, detailed micro trends. What the below does show, as stated, is a trend for rainfall at any one time in any one given location over the weekend, some heavy and some lighter; Also, accompanying this rainfall are some rather gusty conditions for a few of us. Firstly in Scotland; Then also down towards the S/SW of England and Wales; September has, in recent years, become and extension of late summer but this year it's starting with a buck to that trend, and for the first week/10 days or so, looks to be somewhat more Autumnal, akin to its calendar name. Will this unsettled spell last deeper into September or are there signs of the weather settling down again? Well, yes and no to be honest. Obviously we are talking FI in terms of weather forecasting now, but it's always useful to turn to the ensemble products at this range rather than the ever changing operational output. Let's look at the Mogreps first; Average to slightly above average 850hpa temps there, nothing extreme either way, relatively tight clustering indicative of rather good agreement. This therefore translates to the below at the surface; Again, all rather average to slightly above average temperatures (more so towards the SE) at the surface. Pleasant enough in the sunshine, probably feeling rather fresh under cloud cover and/or rainfall. For the first time in a while, we have some respectable rainfall showing on the Mogreps suite too, as expected from the UKV above. Both Glasgow and London showing the risk of rainfall, with some quite large spikes showing on the London ones, indicative of a trough being modelled towards our SW, swinging bands of PPN up from France from time to time; So the support for something wetter is definitely there. How much? We will only truly know that after it has fallen. Through next week and into next weekend, there are very tentative signs of an easing off, from the unsettled conditions we look like experiencing over the coming weekend into early next week, as the trough slowly fills. Now I'm not saying a return to high pressure and settled conditions, not yet anyway, just that MSLP looks like rising a little to allow for a weakening of any PPN, probably turning to a more showery regime, with periods of dry weather interspersed by some showers from time to time. The GEFS MSLP suite show, once we approach mid month, a small rise in MSLP; And the GEFS PPN/850hpa ensembles also show a relaxation of PPN spikes at the same time; So if I was to have a punt at what follows the upcoming unsettled spell, I would go for an showery theme, interspersed with increasingly long dry periods. Nothing overly wet, with the dry periods outweighing the wet periods. Temperatures circulating around the average for the time of year. All a long way off though, let's see what the modelling says in the coming days. For now, if you are wanting rain, look forward to your wish coming true, with some for many of us on its way. For those wanting on last fling of Summer, whilst I can't promise anything notably warm ahead, there is optimism for something more drier from mid next week onwards. Something to watch for if you are of that persuasion anyway.

A quick look at the medium range modelling then, and it will be a quick one as not much as really changed to be honest, with very little actual weather extremities forecast for the foreseeable. Next week looks like being a very useable week for the vast majority of the UK. Nothing too hot, nothing too cold, just pleasant conditions nationwide. The overnight mogreps suite highlight this well, with upper air temperatures around average to slightly above; Translating to something equally average to slightly above (namely in the south), temperature wise at the surface; So lots of dry and relatively warm weather for the time of year, with spells of sunshine interrupted by spells of cloud cover at times. Always that bit fresher up norf though, as one would start to expect as we slowly slide into Autumn. Rainfall wise, dry is the theme right out, well into the beginning of September; Even by September, despite some dodgy looking operational output at face value, when looking at it in somewhat more detail and understanding, there is not really anything that drastically unsettled for the first week of September for much of England and Wales. Scotland admittedly, looks somewhat more dicey being closer to the modelled trough dropping down from the NW, towards Ireland. The Gefs show very similar conditions to then above Mogreps suite; Temperatures always remaining around the average to, at times, slightly above average realm down south. Up north, somewhat fresher at times with some low overnight minima possible; Autumn isn't just about spiralling low pressure systems, rain, gales etc, it's also about fresher, chillier nights, misty mornings, dew on the grass etc, so whilst I don't see any Autumnal gales and deluges for the foreseeable future, we do have signs of Autumn arriving, most notably in the north, with regards to night time and early morning conditions I've mentioned above. A quick look at the GEFS MSLP ensembles; Don't show anything drastically unsettled, or any deep low pressure systems well into September, so those waiting for Autumnal wind/rain could be waiting a well while longer yet. For balance, one thing I will note however is not to take PPN forecasts very literally at all, regardless of any modelled MSLP outlook. Parts of the SE had quite a deluge a couple of days ago, which wasn't modelled or picked upon 6/7/8/9 days previous. I remember talk of there being negligible PPN for the SE corner from PPN charts in mid August, which obviously turned out to be wide of the mark for some. This works both ways too, where PPN has been modelled and hasn't fallen, hence the reason why I never pay attention to PPN forecasts for the UK for more than a couple of days out. So to summarise then, a very quiet and useable spell of weather coming up. Dry or mostly dry for many for the week ahead, spells of warm sunshine interspersed by some fairweather cloud with temperatures very respectable for the time of year. These peaking at low - mid twenties in the south and high teens - low twenties in the north. Some chillier nights possible, especially in Scotland, one sign of the change of seasons emerging here. Nothing more to add there really. As we enter September something a little more changeable is possible as low pressure drops down from the north, currently favoured to drop somewhere west/south west of Ireland. Despite some ominous looking operational charts, when delving a bit deeper, there really isn't much in the way for unsettled conditions showing for large parts of the country, especially the south and east still. No point in looking at it in too much detail yet though, as it will all chop and change as modeling gets a handle on the situation. I do think it will be a very slow process if indeed it does happen though, I think for many, September will start as August will finish, with just an increase in convective activity as pressure lowers enough for showers to form and break out. See how it's all looking in a few more days though, for now let's enjoy the half decent BH weekend ahead.

Let's see if anything has changed over the last couple of days within the ensemble forecasting world for the BH weekend and into the beginning of September. First impressions suggest not much has! Firstly, let's look at the end of this week and through the BH weekend, using the Mogreps ensemble suite below. One of the clearest signals is the signal for PPN (or in this case, lack of it). Aside from the small possibility of a disturbance affecting the SE corner later on Thursday and into Friday, the foreseeable future, including the BH weekend looks predominantly dry for the south (ignoring that one rogue perturbation on the 27th for now); and dry for the north throughout too; The slight PPN signal for the SE corner is courtesy of a messy wave forecast to affect the area later on Thursday into Friday. Modelling is inconsistent with this currently, some have it more pronounced, some have barely anything at all. For what it's worth, this is how the high res UKV model sees it; The only other discernable PPN on the overnight run of this model is for the NW tomorrow; Otherwise, aside from an isolated shower here and there, it's dry dry dry! There is a potential fly in the ointment for the BH weekend though, and that is cloud cover. We've been spoilt over recent weeks with high pressure bringing an abundance of clear blue skies and hit sunshine, I'm not convinced this will be the case over the BH weekend. The HP is far more flabby and consistently moving around, meaning I can see cloud cover coming and going for different locations at different times. No point trying to forecast it at this range, just something to be aware of if your heading to the beach to catch some rays etc. Temperature wise, with the exception of tomorrow in the SE corner where we could locally hit 30c in a few spots again; We are looking at a far more comfortable for many, and bearable spell of weather here. The above is a small blip in an otherwise consistent trend of mid - high twenties for the south, low twenties for the north and west, high teens for parts of Scotland and NI; This theme of temperatures continues through the BH weekend and into the start of the following week when stepping away from operational output and looking at ensemble guidance trends. Both the Mogreps and EC ensembles suites have been consistent with their temperature forecast of the above typical regime for a while now; EC very similar; A very very slow decline in max temperatures as we enter September from both suites, but a very slow, small one that's really negligible at this stage. You can notice the effect of the longer nights starting to appear, where the durinal range tends to grow between night and day. That admittedly, is one early sign of Autumn starting to appear in modelling. Even the UKV model, for the end of this week, as some notably fresh nights/early mornings for parts of Scotland, the north and west; Do I spy a close frost up in the western glens there?! Anyway, we've seen some rather volatile output from some operational modelling in recent days, which despite anyone's individual bias, should always be taking with a large dose of salt (in both directions for balance, both those looking for heat and those looking for rain/gales). Especially when they aren't well supported within ensemble guidance and @mushymanrob famous anomaly charts. The GFS 0z was a perfect example of this, where if we look at the overnight MSLP ensemble suite; You can see the operational is rather too eager to lower pressure compared to its own ensembles. Not quite an outlier in the true sense of the word, but very much at the bottom of the pack. Mogreps also supports MSLP being at a more higher and stable position; Although admittedly these only go out to the end of the month, you can see quite a solid level of agreement there for pressure to be higher than average for the foreseeable future. For balance though, I will note an increase in PPN spikes in some ensemble products for the beginning of September. Below is the GEFS for London and Glasgow; And the EC 0z ensembles for the same two locations; You will note on both, that after a largely dry and quiet week and BH weekend, rainfall spikes do indeed increase as we enter September on both sets of ensembles. So we do have to entertain the idea of something a little wetter coming our way for early Autumn. I wouldn't call it Autumnal yet, as it's my hunch a lot of it is convective rather than frontal, especially across the South where the signal is less obvious, but nevertheless some small amounts of welcome rain is possible. A long way of yet to offer specific detail, pointless at this range, just something to ponder for now. So, a summary then. Apart from tomorrow in the NW and possibly Thursday/Friday in the far SE, we are looking at a predominantly dry week and a dry BH weekend. The odd isolated shower can't be ruled out at any one given time, but dry will be the overwhelming theme. Temperature wise, with the exception of tomorrow in the SE/East Anglia corner, temperatures for England and Wales looks to be above average but not significantly so. Mid twenties for Midlands south, low twenties for Midlands north and into Wales, high teens for much of Scotland and NI. A few places in the South might reach the high twenties, just like a few places in the far NW might not make mid teens, these will be local variations to the above, broad brush theme. That has been consistent for days now and is the trend right out until the end of the month. A warm, dry, but not oppressively hot BH weekend to come then. It should be much more bearable to many more folk compared to the last couple of settled spells, so enjoy it, whatever you are doing. As we enter meteorological Autumn, uncertainty starts to creep in as we would expect at this range. Ensemble products start to spread out more, offering a wider range of solutions. Looking at it with a balanced hat on, I would say a continuation of mainly dry conditions, interrupted by some convective activity for the south and east to start September. Temperatures remaining above average here, although never significantly so. For the north, I would say that things would start to become notably fresher after what's been a generally pleasant month by your standards. Temperatures surpressed to the high teens region, with some chillier nights/early mornings starting to emerge, notably so for Scotland. Along with some most, this is one sign of true Autumnal conditions I do see emerging. Being closer to any LP to our NW/N, more in the way of cloud and rain could be expected here too. I'll leave it at that for now, and return in a couple of days time to see what's changed, if anything.

EC 12z Op a good example of how most ensemble suites have averaged out over the past few days, for next week and over the BH weekend. A bit damp, cloudy and dreary to start the working week, before settling down towards middle of the working week, warming up somewhat, especially towards the south, with a settled and respectable BH weekend. A bit cooler for those up north, with widely comfortable nights for sleeping in. Nothing unsettled or wet and no heatwave either. Just good old, useable, predominantly dry and for many, comfortable weather to enjoy over the last BH weekend of the season. EDIT - whilst still not a heatwave, there are indications of a brief opportunity for the SE corner to pass 30c again on Wednesday. Far more localised than other hot spells this summer, but the GFS, GEFS, Arome and now the UKV all hint at a brief hot day or so, midweek; Quite a contrast throughout the country though. 30c in Cambridge, 19c in Manchester and just 14c in Scotland. Only sign of Autumn in modelling so far, for the foreseeable future, are the ever fresher nights. Some light blues now starting to appear on night mins by the end of the week; Something there to please everyone.

A quick look at the longer range ensemble products to see if we can decipher a clue as to what next weekends weather will hold for us, hopefully with a balanced hat on. Firstly, I note the GFS 0z Op has temperatures in the south east approaching 30c for mid to late next week. For balance, this operational run is one of the warmest members for this time; It does have small support, so can't be totally discounted, it's a possibility, but at this stage it's not the favourite outcome so I would stick to mid-high twenties for the SE and low twenties for areas further north, high teens for parts of Scotland at this stage; It will be interesting to see where the 06z and 12z runs go. Anyway, as for the end of next week and into the bank holiday weekend, we have a large degree of uncertainty and a fairly wide scope of options. What pretty much all ensemble products suggest ( despite some operational output suggesting otherwise ) is we will have high pressure close to or over our shores, meaning a predominantly settled regime with little rainfall. Not totally dry, convective activity cannot be ruled out at any one time in any one location, but as has been the case for days now, dry more than wet. This shown well by the 0z PPN ensembles from the Mogreps; Predominantly dry both north and south, with just the chance of some shower activity here and there. Details of that worthless at this stage. Temperature wise, what does the 0z Mogreps suite suggests; Uncertainty!! Upper air temperatures suggests Scotland seems to over around average, perhaps a tad above on a few days, including the BH weekend. For the south and east, a rather large width of outcomes, although again being pragmatic, they don't scream anything notably hot too me (ie 30c+) at this stage, as they have been consistent in doing so. There is the odd member going for something hot, but the main cluster keeps things around the mid-high twenties, as shown below; And high teens - low twenties for up norf; The overnight EC Ens show pretty similar to the Mogreps too, so that's the two best Ens products (IMO) showing a warm to very warm outlook for the SE and something closer to the climalogical average for the NW; So to summarise the medium range outlook from my perspective then (and I may be wrong but I'm giving it a go), it would suggest to me that we won't see much rainfall, even despite the fact we technically have low pressure in charge until the end of the week. Some weak bands of mainly light PPN here and there and some convective activity on a few days might lead to some localised downpours, but that's it. That is pretty much countrywide too. Temperature wise we have more of a split, parts of the SE remaining warm to very warm, frequently getting into the mid-high twenties whilst parts of the NW remain closer to average, at times barely making 20c. One thing I do fear though, is conditions similar to what I've had recently, where weakening fronts bring cloud laden skies, making it feel rather dreary. Despite the above temperature forecast, I can see a lot of cloud being an issue widely across the country including at times, the South and East, tampering those warm/very warm temperatures a bit. My local Meto forecast for next week shows this well; One more thing to point out. It's not so much a forecast but an observation. Looking at the ens and operational output, you can see a clear sign of the longer nights and lower sun angle taking affect now. Even with upper air temperatures remaining largely above average and some very warm days being modelled by operational output, night time temperatures remain much more comfortable for sleeping as to what we have seen over the past few weeks; Anyway, enough now. Something for everyone going forward. Mainly dry, periods of sunshine between layers of cloud, some warm or even very warm days towards the SE, mixed with some cooler days towards the NW. No sign of autumnal, unsettled conditions yet, and little sign of notable heat yet. See what the next few days modelling brings to see if that changes.

There is still very much likely to be a settled end to summer proper. Nothing in the model output suggests unsettled weather next week, bar maybe Monday. That's not to say it will be totally dry, some showers are possible from time to time pretty much anywhere, but it'll be dry more than it'll be wet. What doesn't look odds on now is heat. Modelling has, for a while now, moved away from proper heat into more typical temperatures profiles for the UK. Still above average at times for some, most notably in the SE, but equally at times rather fresh or chilly for some, most notably in the NW. All in all, an outlook that balances satisfaction between those that love summer weather along with those that detest heat. Something for everybody, a compromise. 0z EC Ens highlight this nicely. Warmth yes, very possible on some days, heat like we've had so far this summer, unlikely; Mogreps 0z very similar to EC, warm and pleasent but also comfortable and not oppressively hot, (P10 aside);

Overnight UKV has a messy band of PPN crossing the country on Sunday night into Monday morning; No time to do an detailed analysis this morning, but a quick look at the 0z Mogreps suite suggests a good signal for a lot of dry weather ahead but rather more mixed when it comes to how warm/cool. London and Glasgow below; Quite a split by the end of next week, especially further south. Some warm/hot options certainly there but equally a decent cluster suggesting something fresher may prevail. As ever, further runs needed. All very messy in my opinion going forward, a messy MSLP pattern and a messy temperature profile.

Been raining persistently here for approx 2 hours or so now. Quite heavy at times too. Certainly not the storms I was hoping for but more in the way of steady rainfall which can only be a good thing I suppose.

I've had 12mm here, mostly from the shower and hour or so ago. Looking at the radar, there's every possibility of more to come locally too. It's obviously no where near enough to make a dent into what's actually needed, but it's surprising how just a little rain can shoot flowers and vegetation back into life.

Water. We have water. Roads are temporarily turning to streams;

Heavy rain and infrequent thunder near Bristol. First rains for a long time, I actually have puddles! More a heavy, thundery shower than a storm though.

In the grand scheme of things, it's just a heavy, thundery rain shower, not what I would classify as a storm, so you're not really missing much. It's more a demonstration of how quiet the convective season has been this summer and lack of rainfall that makes it that little bit more "entertaining". For once, I don't have to water the flowers.

Plenty of new sferics south of Bristol towards the Mendips now. Very heavy rain here, infrequent rumbles of thunder. The garden is loving it!

Sudden, heavy rain here now. First proper, continuous heavy rain so far. Actually have puddles outside. I can't remember the last time I saw a puddle! EDIT - Thunder now heard.