Chris.R

That's what I'm thinking. Flow should be about 320° currently. Varies a bit between 310 and 330 this evening but then becomes westerly after midnight. should pick up speed a bit as well.

Yep. it is usually very good but have to say it hasn't been brilliant this week. should be good with the flow directions and temperatures -aloft and such though.

Same here

-6.2

-4.1°C. -3.8 in Crosby.

-4.0

This is my thought also. hopefully I'm not too far north east.

Wow you really are in a frost hollow.

-2.4°C here, parents house Crosby at -1.4°C.

And that's why I moved inland.

Agreed.

I had snowless winters in 2006-07, 2013-14, 2016-17, 2019-20 in Crosby. Some other years with just one or two snowfalls.

certainly is. WRF has you at 1.7 by 5. Believe it or not that's the minimum for the night. It won't be like that.

That's way more than most of us get. The longevity is especially much better. Some places on the coast have had less in 10 years than 2 of your events combined. on the other hand I'd love to live on the south coast for the thunderstorms. Can imagine a good mcs import from France must be spectacular.

-1.3

I'm still expecting lots of precip in the Irish sea after midnight as soon as those T500s start to drop quickly. West Merseyside (wirral/Sefton Coast) should see something early hours maybe reaching as far as Ellesmere port/Chester/Wrexham. This spreading a little further east by midday as far as a line say southport, Ormskirk, Huyton, Runcorn, Northwich. By early hours Friday should be a wnw flow so more widespread but T500s start to warm out by then so precip might be more scattered and lighter. Of course this is assuming there is precipitation and that these flow directions are reasonably accurate. I no not many models are showing much but just instinct and experience tells me there will be more than predicted. I don't think anything east of Manchester except maybe a window of a couple of hours early Friday. East of M6 maybe 12 hours window. Merseyside 36 hours.

Heavy sleet now, 1.6°C

Very heavy rain. Temperature plummeting. Might get a transition soon.

Heavy rain. Temp falling, evap cooling taking effect. A bit sleety now.

Light rain

Which area of Wigan are you?

1.9/0.1, dry

Still 60% of snow left here. Already icing up where it's exposed to the sky.

Exactly and this unstable Cheshire gap set up for Thursday is about the most unpredictable that you can get.

I would be shocked if Thursday didn't deliver for at least Merseyside. Thicknesses 515 dam, T500s -39°C... that should create plenty of instability. Looks like quite a sharp fall in temperature when wind veers tonight. Will be interesting to look at obs as the sharp gradient comes south.