[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

I think the ice risk would be for graupel accumulation. I don't expect any liquid precipitation even at the coast but if there is it would be very short lived. If there is and it mixes with graupel you will quickly accumulate icy slush. I expect 50% of the precip to be graupel and snow mix at the coast because of the convective nature. Becoming more snow later as lapse rates get shallower.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

22 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Just checked my actual weather station, it’s 0.4C. Car is lying to me

Never trust cars

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

It must have just ran out.

Think It just ran out. Didn't get a canceled notification which I should've done if it was cancelled.

All down to nowcasting now.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

12 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Bi t marginal near the coast then? Temp has remained steady here last few hours at 2.7, I thought it would has risen further by now but hasn't which is good.

I think dp should keep things the right side of marginal. Still below freezing here. 

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

16 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Couple of snow showers showing up on the Met app for here. Though marginality might be an issue now, especially with a direct W’erly

I doubt it. DP should be  still well below freezing. Temp here is still -0.5°C as well.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

27 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Interesting batch of showers developing over Northern Ireland now in a more NW wind, I wonder for later???

That's what I'm thinking. Flow should be about 320° currently. Varies a bit between 310 and 330 this evening but then becomes westerly after midnight. should pick up speed a bit as well.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

3 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

00z GFS and WRF looking quite promising for later @Chris.R is it the 2km model you look at and rate? That one shows quite a heavy batch of snow showers moving through the NW. 

Arome, Arpege and Harmonie all have the showers too but perhaps more isolated/lighter. 
 

UKV shows nothing except for the Wirral coast. 

Again a good test of the high-res models. The MetO aren’t interested as their model isn’t going for it. 
 

Not expecting much if anything here but if WRF is correct you never know! I was reading about the WRF model and it is allegedly very good at predicting convective events/precip. 

Yep. it is usually very good but have to say it hasn't been brilliant this week. should be good with the flow directions and temperatures -aloft and such though.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

1 minute ago, carl1980 said:

Up to -4.9c from -6.3c half an hour ago 

-5 again now 

Same here

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

-6.2

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

-4.1°C. -3.8 in Crosby.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

-4.0

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

7 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Well if you live Liverpool Cheshire NW midlands the forecast on just now on the BBC was fantastic 

presenter stated that the snow showers could turn heavy tomorrow evening and amounts will depend on were the snow showers aline.

This is my thought also. hopefully I'm not too far north east.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

6 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

-6.0°C

Wow you really are in a frost hollow.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

-2.4°C here, parents house Crosby at -1.4°C.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

28 minutes ago, Dark Horse said:

Yeah that's the problem with the coast. Even in coastal Scotland snow can be hard to come by. 

And that's why I moved inland.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

37 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

The 'snow starved south' that we constantly hear in that thread is a myth then!? Doesn't sound too snow starved to me, average is 1 in 5 years here and I know some other parts of our region certainly don't get anything like the above. I wish we where as snow starved as you, highest depth here 10cm's give or take.

Agreed.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

5 minutes ago, Dark Horse said:

Yes I think the main difference north Vs south is I've never actually recorded a completely snowless winter here. Even the mildest like 2013-14, 2018-19 etc had at least a dusting at some point. Whereby I'd say all of the south below Birmingham have had no snow at all in some winters, maybe not even any falling snow. Stating the obvious but clearly the further north you are the closer you are to the Arctic and it's associated air so less likely to miss out on snow.

I had snowless winters in 2006-07, 2013-14, 2016-17, 2019-20 in Crosby. Some other years with just one or two snowfalls.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

12 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

0.5 here, even that's good going.

certainly is. WRF has you at 1.7 by 5. Believe it or not that's the minimum for the night. It won't be like that.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

16 minutes ago, ptow said:

Its interesting now that you mention it. We down South have this thought that the North always has the snow whereby we get scraps but is it actually true? A few of my events experienced aside from 1980's (numerous), 1987, 1991:

2008/9? = 10cm's lasted a whole week

Dec 2009 = 21cm lasted past Christmas

Jan 2010 = 34cm lasted for 2 weeks

Dec 2010 = 10cm lasted over a week, then again another 8cm that also lasted a week

2012? = 12cm lasted a week

2013 - 2017 several one day events of 5cm ish

2018 = 9cm's lasted 4/5 days

2020 = 1cm lasted a week

2021 = 1 cm lasted a week

2023 = 8cm's lasted 2 days

How does this compare? I expect its less, but is it really much less?

And yes, those hot days are something else without aircon!

 

That's way more than most of us get. The longevity is especially much better. Some places on the coast have had less in 10 years than 2 of your events combined.

on the other hand I'd love to live on the south coast for the thunderstorms. Can imagine a good mcs import from France must be spectacular. 

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

-1.3

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

I'm still expecting lots of precip in the Irish sea after midnight as soon as those T500s start to drop quickly.
West Merseyside (wirral/Sefton Coast) should see something early hours maybe reaching as far as Ellesmere port/Chester/Wrexham. This spreading a little further east by midday as far as a line say southport, Ormskirk, Huyton, Runcorn, Northwich. By early hours Friday should be a wnw flow so more widespread but T500s start to warm out by then so precip might be more scattered and lighter. Of course this is assuming there is precipitation and that these flow directions are reasonably accurate.

I no not many models are showing much but just instinct and experience tells me there will be more than predicted. 
I don't think anything east  of Manchester except maybe a window of a couple of hours early Friday. East of M6 maybe 12 hours window. Merseyside 36 hours. 

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Heavy sleet now, 1.6°C

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Very heavy rain. Temperature plummeting. Might get a transition soon.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Heavy rain. Temp falling, evap cooling taking effect. A bit sleety now.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Light rain