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Chris.R
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Posts posted by Chris.R
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Torrential mix of all three precipitation types now. Some snowflakes surviving the passage through the inversion some raindrops surviving as liquid to the surface having not enough time to freeze in the Sub zero layer just above because of the intensity and still some ice pellets. quite fascinating
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At least this bit of the forecast is going to plan then. This is the precipitation mix I expected at this time.
still very heavy ice pellets with the occasional large snowflake making it through the inversion. As it continues more and more of these flakes are making it through.- 5
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Very heavy ice pellets/snow mix now. All kinds of sizes of ice pellets along with the occasional large snowflake some encased in ice.
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Heavy ice pellets and rain mix now.
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That's more like it. Proper snow now very heavy and leaving a slight dusting. 1.4°C
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80% snow here
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Trying its best again here but not quite making it yet
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80% snow here now
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1.7°C DP -0.1. Trying to turn here.
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It is looking more marginal than expected. I don't know whether the atmosphere profile is different than model or the surface is warmer than expected, or the positive 850s are further north quicker than expected or what but I did expect more snow reports by now.
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Heavy sleet recently started.
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Garthvader Wigan is great. Better than Crosby
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Give it time. Surface is just a bit more marginal than expected yesterday evening
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WRF still the same
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Right bedtime. Up at 6 tomorrow to watch my forecast go spectacularly wrong.
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Sorry I was on the phone .
Isle of Man
Snow from 09:00ice pellets/snow mix from 18:00
Ice pellets/rain mix from 00:00 Friday
Rain from 03:00
8–12 cm of snow possible over high ground. You may struggle at low levels as surface temperatures are very marginal.
Freezing rain risk from late evening on mountains.- 4
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RabbitEars ok give me a minute
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yeah Wallgate Chippy is really nice. Massive menu as well.
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Nice Pizza, no kebab this time.
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Cheshire south/mid
07:00 - Snow start
11:00 - Transition - snow>ice pellets
snow when heavy.
14:00 - becoming - ice pellets/rain/snow mix.
ice pellets when light - rain when moderate - snow when very heavy.
15:00 - precip end. (Light ice pellets at end).
2-4 cm accumulated snow - some melt late afternoon.
Wirral South/Halton
07:00 - Snow start - (possibly light rain initially.
Latest data suggests slightly dodgy surface temps at front onset. Experience suggests this may not be a problem on the day with SE wind.
12:00 - transition - snow > snow/ice pellet mix
snow when heavy.
15:00 - becoming - ice pellet/rain mix
rain when heavy.
17:00 - precip end (light ice pellets at end)
3-6 cm accumulated snow.
Wirral North/Liverpool.
07:30 - Snow start - (possibly light rain initially.
(See above).
12:00 - transition - snow > snow/ice pellet mix
snow when heavy.
16:00 - becoming - ice pellet/rain mix
rain when heavy.
18:00 - precip end (light ice pellets at end)
3-5 cm accumulated snow.
West Lancashire south of Preston/rest of Merseyside.
07:30 - Snow start - (possibly light rain initially.
below 100 m. (see above).
13:00 - transition - snow > snow/ice pellet mix
snow when heavy.
17:00 - becoming - ice pellet/rain mix
rain when heavy.
18:00 - precip end (light ice pellets at end)
3-7 cm accumulated snow.
Gtr Manchester South
08:00 - Snow start - (possibly light rain initially.
below 100 m. (see above).
13:00 - transition - snow > snow/ice pellet mix
snow when heavy.
17:00 - becoming - ice pellet/rain mix
rain when heavy.
18:00 - precip end (light ice pellets at end)
2-7 cm accumulated snow.
Limited accumulation east and south-east of Salford
Gtr Manchester West/Central
08:30 - Snow start - (possibly light rain initially.
below 100 m. (see above).
13:00 - transition - snow > snow/ice pellet mix
snow when heavy.
18:00 - becoming - ice pellet/rain mix
rain when heavy.
19:00 - precip end in the south. (light ice pellets at end)
2-6 cm accumulated snow.
Limited accumulation in City centre
Gtr Manchester East/peaks
08:00 - Snow start
15:00 - transition - snow > snow/ice pellet mix
snow when heavy.
Freezing rain possible above 300 m
17:00 - becoming - ice pellet/rain mix
rain when heavy.
Freezing rain possible above 250 m
18:00 - transition - ice pellets/rain mix > rain.
3-7 cm accumulated snow on low ground.
8-15 cm accumulated snow on high ground.
Gtr Manchester North
08:00 - Snow start - (possibly light rain initially.
below 100 m. (see above).
15:00 - transition - snow > snow/ice pellet mix
snow when heavy.
18:00 - becoming - ice pellet/rain mix
rain when heavy.
19:00 - precip end in the south. (light ice pellets at end)
Precip continuing in the north and on high ground with a transition to all rain by 01:00.
21:00 - Precip resuming in the south with ice pellets/rain mix soon transitioning to all rain.
3-8 cm accumulated snow.
greater in the north.
East Lancashire
08:00 - Snow start
18:00 - transition - snow > snow/ice pellet mix
snow when heavy.
Freezing rain possible above 250 m
19:00 - becoming - ice pellet/rain mix
rain when heavy.
Freezing rain possible above 200 m
03:00 - transition - ice pellets/rain mix > rain.
4-7 cm accumulated snow on low ground.
6-15 cm accumulated snow on high ground.
North Lancashire/Fylde
08:00 - Snow start - (possibly light rain initially.
(See above).
17:00 - transition - snow > snow/ice pellet mix
snow when heavy.
Freezing rain possible above 250 m
19:00 - becoming - ice pellet/rain mix
rain when heavy.
Freezing rain possible above 200 m
23:00 - transition - ice pellets/rain mix > rain.
2-4 cm accumulated snow on low ground.
5-9 cm accumulated snow on high ground.
Cumbria South
08:00 - Snow start
23:00 - transition - snow > snow/ice pellet mix
snow when heavy.
Freezing rain possible above 250 m
02:00 - becoming - ice pellet/rain mix
rain when heavy.
Freezing rain possible above 200 m
04:00 - transition - ice pellets/rain mix > rain.
2-7 cm accumulated snow on low ground.
4-10 cm accumulated snow on high ground.
Cumbria North
Little precipitation, but would be all snow until 03:00 Friday.
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Sorry all I'm only just having tea
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12Z data is worse, will have to redo forecast a bit.
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Weather-history that ties in nice with what I'm writing
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Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards
in Northwest Weather Discussion
Posted
It's really annoying because the latest WRF that came out 4 hours ago shows the warmer surface layer which wasn't there on the previous runs that messed things up today. If it had been there yesterday I would've re-done the forecast with no accumulation below 150 m.