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georgiedre

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Posts posted by georgiedre

    Meto Uk Further Outlook

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Summer Sun said:

    Thursday 18 Feb - Saturday 27 Feb

    This period begins with temperatures much milder than recent, with temperatures returning to around or slightly above average for most, with some mild spells being seen in the south and west. There remains a small chance to return to wider colder conditions for the weekend, but the likelihood is low. The UK looks to be split broadly northwest to southeast in terms of the general weather types with the west and northwest more likely to see wet conditions with strong winds at times, and the east and south east more likely to remain drier, fine, and settled. Under these settled conditions we may see temperatures falling back to average or below, and with increased incidence of overnight frost and fog. Any snowfall most likely becoming restricted to the Scottish mountains.

    Saturday 27 Feb - Saturday 13 Mar

    Into late February there is a signal for higher than average pressure to sit close to or over the UK, with likely drier and more settled conditions prevailing. Temperatures likely to return back to around, if not below, average with a greater chance of cold spells during this time, bringing an increased threat of widespread frost and a very uncertain chance of snow. Towards mid-March there are signs of returning to a more unsettled period, with milder interludes more likely once more.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

    Yup winter over haha

    Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Looked closely at ECM individual ensembles for an underlying trend at D5 and D6, but I couldn't really separate between runs that bring a clean easterly, runs that scupper the easterly for southern areas through low pressure of the SE coast, and runs that were a bit of both. 

    My gut feeling is that the clean easterly has gone for the south - once disturbances are picked up D4/D5, they rarely correct back to the clean version. But the heavy frontal snow option, that's still well on the cards. I see similarities with Feb 2009 here where many got heavy snow but the extreme SE got rain - it was touch and go until T0.

    Northerners though, put your feet up, relax, and count up the snow falling/snow laying days. You'll need plenty of ink!

    North East not the North West.  Cant see much for the nw

    Model output discussion 24/01/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by georgiedre
    Changed abc to abc for some reason

    4 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Very interesting progression on the ECM mean chart from T120 to T144

    image.thumb.png.ba5d58075c102572a160fdfa114a32b9.png image.thumb.png.e60a26a0bd89822aa6f74234817ca8b8.png  

    Suggests the milder side from Atlantic is far from certain to push through even southern areas, and a fair chance of a low splitting off into Europe.

    The more progressive runs on the ensembles may see a very quick snow to rain event, but the runs that follow the mean could require a digger to dispense with all the snow. 

    My suspicion is that latter will outnumber the former ... I'll check later

     

    Don't say things like that abc hahahha

    • Like 1

    Meto Uk Further Outlook

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Friday 29 Jan - Sunday 7 Feb

    Unsettled conditions look likely to dominate for this period, with low pressure across the UK. Therefore, this should bring changeable weather to most of the country, with periods of rain, showers, and strong winds at times. While mild westerly and southwesterly winds are expected to be dominant for most of the period, occasional colder northerly winds are possible, bringing a chance of snowfall, likely confined to the far northern parts. Towards the end of the period, we may see high pressure bringing a higher than average chance of cold weather more widely with wintry outbreaks. If this were to occur many inland and southern areas would likely see drier than average conditions, with some overnight of frost and fog.

    Sunday 7 Feb - Sunday 21 Feb

    Confidence is low for this period, but current signals indicate a possible high pressure system around or near the UK during this period. This would likely bring cold northerly winds, producing colder than average temperatures and wintry outbreaks. The second half of February is likely to have a mixture of weather types, with periods of wet, windy and milder weather interspersed with drier, calmer, colder periods.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

    I had seen this update just as Ian fergie was saying that they (met) are looking at a potentially colder weekend and future so hopefully the updates will change nxt couple of days 

    • Like 2
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