georgiedre
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Posts posted by georgiedre
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100mph again! Plus I'm right in the firing line. Loads of damage last time although the winds will be. Blowing along the mountains so this will be possible! Will keep u postedThe heavy rain should clear to sun and showers around midday, strong winds especially afternoon, inland South Wales gusts no higher than 60mph.The 100mph risk is only for far Nw Wales
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First snow of the winter here
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What's yours and mets take on how things may pan out after the initial low pressure fergie?Indeed. UKMO are happy with their 12z GM and run with it unmodified on this occasion.
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Doesn't the high pressure up north look like moving to Greenland from the +120 fax chart??Fax Charts have the low to our West and keeps it there throughout
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=fax;sess= -
Fergie did say he would pop back in tonight with further information! Hopefully info we need for a cold period!Not long been in.....catching up....... Nice to see the 18z halt the rot somewhat. What an absolute nightmare this is turning out to be in terms of modelling. If I've interpreted Fergie's post earlier correctly, what transpires next week may have huge ramifications going forward....maybe due to some kind of tropospheric feedback mechanism? I thought this would be the case yesterday....blocking either becomes entrenched or it doesn't.
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Knowing my luck I will miss all the cold and snow while I'm sunbathing in gran canaria! It actually may feel a bit cold Down in the canaryislands if some of the runs are to be believed!
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With the amount of storminess lately and the chopping and changing forecast from all including met office (ie saying southern and eastern parts would be dryier this week from the forecast 2 weeks ago) I think no one is certain of the future weather and believe cold weather will become a big feature at the end of January and during February! (going against Ian and met office Soz mate)..let's see! Btw I have never ever seen seen windy weather like the last. 2 weeks
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It is very very serious here! Electric have been on and off since 10pm loads of trees down!110mph!? Isn't there record 86.5 mph?? if that go's inland that could set some new records down there. hope folks down there were prepared
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I never thought we would experience 100+ mph winds here.I'm between aberdaron and Capel curig!and this is very serious
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The wind in north west Wales has been nuts tonight and the 109 mph gust in aberdaron is very believable if you live in my area wow.. Major damages will be reported in the morning!
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I'm in nw Wales and I have never seen wind like this!! Crap loads of trees down!!
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According to met office there's been sleet in Anglesey (valley) ! Don't think that with temps of 8.6! Winds gusting 55-60 mph at the moment
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Massive thunderstorm here in nw Wales
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Would this mean snow north of the low pressure??There could be trouble ahead...and so the......
BFTP
The southern one?
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Regarding verification stats I have realised that when there is a pattern change the gfs is better than the ecm the last 3 times intact the gfs has got it right. On mob so not able to provide pics soz
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Very heavy hail and thunder in nw Wales snow on the tops
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Bftp seems to think the models are firming up on a change to colder conditions as he's posted in the seasonal thread.
Just to touch more on my LRF before I do next months outlook, I am still very keen on the potential 'gamechanger' storm over NY period. I think there will be some substantial snow produced from this and may usher in a very cold period. Its coming within deep FI of GFS now...and some wild swings as one would imagine. Nice to see some PM and rPM air appearing with sub lows occurring now.
BFTP
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Well it looks to me that there's a change afoot. Even bftp seems to think so for the New Year maybe!! Copied from one of his posts last night:::::: Just to touch more on my LRF before I do next months outlook, I am still very keen on the potential 'gamechanger' storm over NY period. I think there will be some substantial snow produced from this and may usher in a very cold period. Its coming within deep FI of GFS now...and some wild swings as one would imagine. Nice to see some PM and rPM air appearing with sub lows occurring now.
BFTP
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Just a quick question for experienced people here. With cold air filtering into ne UK what impact could this have? As I seem to remember that when cold air filtersinto place it is hard to get rid of so could this help the building Of high pressure to our ne??
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Morning Ian. Just a quick question re the last part, is this precipitation the Atlantic trying to push south of the high pressure? I think it was said yesterday that the sw might get glancing blows from low pressure could these systems bring an easterly with chances of snow for southern Areas??UKMO caution (as have some on here) that with light gradients & little mixing, the higher Theta-W regime in SE/S shouldn't be taken as signal for 'mild': boundary layer still chilled and temps typically to average at best. Based on 12z suites yesterday, lower prob now of deeper cold from E into 15d trend period but beyond that remains an imponderable. Dry signal remains striking in all but MOGREPS-15 ensembles (latter a bit noisier for heavier PPN later in period). 00Z analysis due later this morning.
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Belfast 6/1 and Cardiff 5/1??? Wth surely Belfast has a better chance of snow seen as its about 400-500 miles further north!!??
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Snow on Snowdon today!
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Wow 2 thunderstorms in 2 hours!!! And the rain was immense!
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Why are you hoping bftp? Is it regarding trends for winter?Is a southerly tracking storm coming???? Let's hope so....OK...likely max gust location? I'm going for Mumbles Head at 90mphBFTP
Atlantic Storms February 2014
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
I'm in Caernarfon and the wind is really starting to pick up! I'm expecting about 80mph - 90 mph today in the area