Dave Kightley
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Posts posted by Dave Kightley
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Also 25 years is 1987 which is the year of the great Easterly spell... Just seemed odd why 100 years, when so much great cold happened afterwards...
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Lots of snow potential in FI is well.
Lows trying to break through is always a good thing for frontal snowfall across the south as long we stay on the right side of it of course.
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Great Charts this morning! Look's all go from next weekend but wouldn't be surprised on a late upgrade with the Northerly Wednesday either
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The big freeze will last until mid-December???? EVEN if you divide that by 2 is weeks away or so? Round about where the models go up to??? I might be wrong but anyhow
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I have noticed a trend with the express with it's 100 years talk... 100 winds, 100 years cold spell -15 temperatures... If you divide it all by 50% you get 50 mile per hour winds which is likely. 50 year temperature =1962/1963 and -7.5 up north tuesday night maybe??????
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Don't expect the end of the flooding after this weekend.. Standing water will freeze next week and on top of that 1 foot of snow during December.. Not looking good
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Everyone will have to buy ice skates not sledges this time next week lolOh my.... Without trying to jinx it all I have a slight december 2010 feeling about all this!
Must try not to get carried away though as could end up coming down with a bump!
Lets look to the here and now though first of all, saturdays marginal event
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Around 200h WE see a low moving up from the south... Interesting not on this run but if it did happen then i'm sure it would be modeled much further south due to the block so lots of snow for the south! Seen this happen a few times when the models underestimate the blocking
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Nice to see the -5 uppers over our part of the world near fl... Will make a great restpite after all this rain this week... More rain later this week too... Ice Skating next week then hahaha
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Christ! Thankfully the rains finally cleared
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Extremely heavy too. It helped with the time of day also. What makes me think that with -4 uppers overnight would produce at least marginal snow?Ive just scanned the 18z Ensembles & STILL after all this time they are not worth looking at- they add no value-
So before we get any 'ensembles' are ropey posts-
IGNORE THE 18Z ENSEMBLES- just as tomorrows 06z.
Follow the UKMO, ECM & JMA in this scenario- bin the rest even the mighty NOGAPS!
S
PS andy- yep it was bath etc so the SW- but wales was ballpark
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Looks like we are in for a wild night
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With the negativity within in the Model discussion around uppers.. I thought id share a clip from 1962. A program from BBC four a while back i think?
I wasn't born to remember the Shadows btw
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Is the -5 upper profile really that important for snow.. I swear we had had snow the other week under -1/-2 although it had to quite heavy. The cold-ish uppers do flirt with Scotland for a while
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Did someone say charts like this are the start of a C.W?
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mmm this maybe why????
... Were on the 18z too -
lol yh! looks like pressure rises in USA and shifts the P.V in the most simple explanation i could think of. What i get out of this run is maybe the growing trend for pressure to be higher closer to the UK at first..
Maybe an expert can explain it better lol
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The GFS run was ok until it hit fl...... I'm happy with whats up to 144h however the p.v just grows again and so pressure stays high around the UK. Looked like a nice split up to that point
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Well remainder of the ECM 32 control, atlantic finally breaks through around 550, from there until around 630 we see cold tonality, with a flow from north of west, thereafter im afraid is full on zonality, SWly feed for the remainder of the run.
However, this is just the control. Will wait to hear from Matt in the morning what the ensemble mean suggests
SK
Also to add for those still worrying about 850's (despite the fact we needn't at this stage) well ECM 32 control has sub -5c 850's from 276 to 504 hours across EA and SE, and from 312 to 492 across the whole of the UK - will that suffice?
Sounds like a good week or so of below average temps at least
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SATURDAY, 17 NOVEMBER 2012
<a href="http://globalcoolingnewiceageuk.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/potential-for-some-of-coldest-and.html" style="color: rgb(170, 221, 153); text-decoration: initial; display: block; font-weight: bold;">Potential for some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in at least a century AT TIMES...
There is also the potential for some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in at least a century AT TIMES to be recorded in the December to January period of the upcoming winter. The January period is also slightly more favorable to experience the worst of the winter conditions in terms of snowfall and temperatures.
Snippet from snow risk dates and temperature forecast available (Produced and made available on 9th November 2012) @http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html
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I have my faith in this happening this Winter
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http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121115/18/312/h850t850eu.png The uppers are getting cold to... Looking east in fI
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A link on youtube to a video taken from just outside Wincanton on the 4th November
... Were on the 18z too
Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
So James Madden must be thinking either an 1987 or 1962/1963 or he has completely missed the plot that 1962/1963 were one of the coldest winters on record